Opinion Poll by GESOP for El Periòdic, 16–18 December 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 39.6% | 23.2% | 21.4–25.3% | 20.9–25.8% | 20.5–26.3% | 19.6–27.3% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 17.9% | 23.2% | 21.4–25.3% | 20.9–25.8% | 20.5–26.3% | 19.6–27.3% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 39.6% | 18.0% | 16.4–19.8% | 15.9–20.4% | 15.5–20.8% | 14.7–21.7% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 12.7% | 15.4% | 13.8–17.1% | 13.4–17.6% | 13.0–18.0% | 12.3–18.9% |
| Catalunya en Comú | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.6–10.2% | 7.3–10.6% | 7.0–10.9% | 6.5–11.6% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 8.2% | 4.9% | 4.0–6.0% | 3.8–6.3% | 3.6–6.6% | 3.2–7.2% |
| Partit Popular | 8.5% | 4.8% | 3.9–5.9% | 3.7–6.2% | 3.5–6.5% | 3.1–7.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 20 | 36 | 32–39 | 31–40 | 31–41 | 29–42 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25 | 32 | 29–34 | 28–36 | 27–36 | 26–38 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 29 | 27 | 24–30 | 23–30 | 23–31 | 22–33 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 16 | 21 | 17–23 | 16–23 | 16–24 | 15–25 |
| Catalunya en Comú | 11 | 9 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 8–14 | 6–14 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 10 | 5 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 2–9 |
| Partit Popular | 11 | 5 | 3–6 | 3–7 | 3–8 | 2–9 |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 31 | 3% | 98% | |
| 32 | 8% | 94% | |
| 33 | 6% | 87% | |
| 34 | 9% | 80% | |
| 35 | 20% | 71% | |
| 36 | 18% | 51% | Median |
| 37 | 14% | 34% | |
| 38 | 10% | 20% | |
| 39 | 5% | 10% | |
| 40 | 3% | 6% | |
| 41 | 2% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 26 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 28 | 3% | 95% | |
| 29 | 6% | 92% | |
| 30 | 12% | 86% | |
| 31 | 20% | 74% | |
| 32 | 13% | 53% | Median |
| 33 | 19% | 41% | |
| 34 | 13% | 22% | |
| 35 | 4% | 9% | |
| 36 | 3% | 5% | |
| 37 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 5% | 99.3% | |
| 24 | 13% | 94% | |
| 25 | 9% | 81% | |
| 26 | 13% | 72% | |
| 27 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 28 | 11% | 48% | |
| 29 | 24% | 37% | Last Result |
| 30 | 9% | 13% | |
| 31 | 3% | 5% | |
| 32 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 16 | 5% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 17 | 10% | 94% | |
| 18 | 9% | 84% | |
| 19 | 12% | 75% | |
| 20 | 10% | 63% | |
| 21 | 12% | 53% | Median |
| 22 | 25% | 42% | |
| 23 | 13% | 17% | |
| 24 | 3% | 4% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 8 | 15% | 98% | |
| 9 | 34% | 83% | Median |
| 10 | 11% | 50% | |
| 11 | 23% | 39% | Last Result |
| 12 | 9% | 15% | |
| 13 | 3% | 6% | |
| 14 | 2% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 23% | 99.1% | |
| 4 | 8% | 76% | |
| 5 | 24% | 67% | Median |
| 6 | 8% | 44% | |
| 7 | 13% | 35% | |
| 8 | 21% | 23% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 22% | 99.2% | |
| 4 | 7% | 77% | |
| 5 | 45% | 70% | Median |
| 6 | 15% | 25% | |
| 7 | 7% | 9% | |
| 8 | 2% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú | 60 | 73 | 96% | 69–76 | 68–77 | 67–78 | 65–80 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 59 | 68 | 59% | 64–72 | 63–73 | 63–74 | 61–76 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular | 63 | 67 | 41% | 63–71 | 62–72 | 61–72 | 59–74 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú | 47 | 66 | 30% | 62–70 | 61–71 | 60–72 | 58–73 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 49 | 63 | 5% | 59–66 | 58–67 | 57–68 | 55–70 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 52 | 57 | 0% | 53–61 | 52–61 | 51–62 | 49–64 |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98% | |
| 68 | 4% | 96% | Majority |
| 69 | 7% | 93% | |
| 70 | 11% | 86% | |
| 71 | 13% | 75% | |
| 72 | 12% | 62% | Median |
| 73 | 11% | 50% | |
| 74 | 11% | 39% | |
| 75 | 11% | 28% | |
| 76 | 8% | 17% | |
| 77 | 5% | 9% | |
| 78 | 2% | 5% | |
| 79 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 62 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 63 | 4% | 98% | |
| 64 | 6% | 94% | |
| 65 | 8% | 88% | |
| 66 | 10% | 80% | |
| 67 | 11% | 71% | |
| 68 | 13% | 59% | Median, Majority |
| 69 | 15% | 46% | |
| 70 | 12% | 32% | |
| 71 | 7% | 20% | |
| 72 | 5% | 13% | |
| 73 | 4% | 7% | |
| 74 | 2% | 4% | |
| 75 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 4% | 96% | |
| 63 | 5% | 93% | Last Result |
| 64 | 7% | 87% | |
| 65 | 12% | 80% | |
| 66 | 15% | 68% | |
| 67 | 13% | 54% | Median |
| 68 | 11% | 41% | Majority |
| 69 | 10% | 29% | |
| 70 | 8% | 20% | |
| 71 | 6% | 12% | |
| 72 | 4% | 6% | |
| 73 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 59 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98% | |
| 61 | 3% | 96% | |
| 62 | 6% | 93% | |
| 63 | 10% | 87% | |
| 64 | 12% | 77% | |
| 65 | 11% | 65% | |
| 66 | 11% | 54% | Median |
| 67 | 12% | 42% | |
| 68 | 11% | 30% | Majority |
| 69 | 9% | 19% | |
| 70 | 5% | 10% | |
| 71 | 2% | 5% | |
| 72 | 2% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 57 | 2% | 98% | |
| 58 | 4% | 96% | |
| 59 | 6% | 93% | |
| 60 | 9% | 87% | |
| 61 | 14% | 77% | |
| 62 | 13% | 64% | |
| 63 | 12% | 51% | Median |
| 64 | 11% | 39% | |
| 65 | 10% | 28% | |
| 66 | 8% | 18% | |
| 67 | 5% | 10% | |
| 68 | 3% | 5% | Majority |
| 69 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98% | |
| 52 | 3% | 96% | Last Result |
| 53 | 5% | 93% | |
| 54 | 8% | 88% | |
| 55 | 10% | 80% | |
| 56 | 13% | 71% | |
| 57 | 15% | 57% | |
| 58 | 13% | 42% | Median |
| 59 | 10% | 30% | |
| 60 | 9% | 20% | |
| 61 | 7% | 11% | |
| 62 | 3% | 5% | |
| 63 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GESOP
- Commissioner(s): El Periòdic
- Fieldwork period: 16–18 December 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 0.58%