Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 23–24 August 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract |
0.0% |
20.2% |
19.0–21.5% |
18.7–21.8% |
18.4–22.2% |
17.8–22.8% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid |
10.9% |
18.0% |
16.8–19.2% |
16.5–19.6% |
16.2–19.9% |
15.7–20.5% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie |
21.9% |
13.9% |
12.9–15.0% |
12.6–15.4% |
12.4–15.6% |
11.9–16.2% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid |
10.8% |
8.6% |
7.8–9.5% |
7.6–9.8% |
7.4–10.0% |
7.0–10.5% |
BoerBurgerBeweging |
1.0% |
8.5% |
7.7–9.4% |
7.5–9.7% |
7.3–9.9% |
6.9–10.4% |
Partij voor de Dieren |
3.8% |
5.2% |
4.6–5.9% |
4.4–6.2% |
4.2–6.3% |
4.0–6.7% |
Democraten 66 |
15.0% |
4.5% |
3.9–5.2% |
3.8–5.4% |
3.6–5.6% |
3.4–5.9% |
Socialistische Partij |
6.0% |
3.5% |
3.0–4.1% |
2.8–4.3% |
2.7–4.5% |
2.5–4.8% |
ChristenUnie |
3.4% |
2.9% |
2.5–3.5% |
2.3–3.7% |
2.2–3.8% |
2.0–4.1% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
2.1% |
2.6% |
2.2–3.2% |
2.1–3.4% |
2.0–3.5% |
1.8–3.8% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
9.5% |
2.5% |
2.1–3.1% |
2.0–3.2% |
1.9–3.4% |
1.7–3.6% |
Forum voor Democratie |
5.0% |
2.2% |
1.8–2.8% |
1.7–2.9% |
1.6–3.0% |
1.5–3.3% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 |
2.4% |
2.1% |
1.7–2.6% |
1.6–2.8% |
1.5–2.9% |
1.4–3.2% |
Volt Europa |
2.4% |
2.0% |
1.6–2.5% |
1.5–2.7% |
1.4–2.8% |
1.3–3.0% |
DENK |
2.0% |
1.9% |
1.5–2.4% |
1.4–2.5% |
1.3–2.6% |
1.2–2.9% |
50Plus |
1.0% |
0.5% |
0.4–0.8% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–1.0% |
0.2–1.1% |
Belang van Nederland |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.1–1.0% |
Bij1 |
0.8% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.5% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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
Confidence Intervals
Nieuw Sociaal Contract
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
27 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
8% |
95% |
|
29 |
13% |
87% |
|
30 |
2% |
74% |
|
31 |
7% |
72% |
|
32 |
0.8% |
64% |
|
33 |
5% |
64% |
|
34 |
56% |
58% |
Median |
35 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
36 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
37 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
38 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
54% |
99.5% |
Median |
26 |
9% |
45% |
|
27 |
15% |
36% |
|
28 |
12% |
21% |
|
29 |
8% |
10% |
|
30 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
31 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
0.9% |
99.1% |
|
20 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
21 |
10% |
98% |
|
22 |
53% |
88% |
Median |
23 |
17% |
35% |
|
24 |
6% |
18% |
|
25 |
12% |
12% |
|
26 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
2% |
100% |
|
12 |
10% |
98% |
|
13 |
16% |
88% |
|
14 |
51% |
71% |
Median |
15 |
12% |
21% |
|
16 |
0.3% |
9% |
|
17 |
8% |
8% |
Last Result |
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
6% |
100% |
|
11 |
8% |
94% |
|
12 |
12% |
86% |
|
13 |
51% |
74% |
Median |
14 |
19% |
24% |
|
15 |
5% |
5% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
6 |
50% |
99.5% |
Last Result, Median |
7 |
21% |
49% |
|
8 |
24% |
28% |
|
9 |
1.3% |
4% |
|
10 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
11 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
6 |
16% |
99.1% |
|
7 |
66% |
83% |
Median |
8 |
8% |
17% |
|
9 |
9% |
9% |
|
10 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
14% |
98.9% |
|
5 |
68% |
85% |
Median |
6 |
9% |
17% |
|
7 |
7% |
7% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
18% |
100% |
|
4 |
71% |
82% |
Median |
5 |
9% |
10% |
Last Result |
6 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
3 |
51% |
98.9% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
32% |
48% |
|
5 |
8% |
15% |
|
6 |
6% |
7% |
|
7 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
2% |
100% |
|
3 |
36% |
98% |
|
4 |
12% |
62% |
Median |
5 |
0.8% |
49% |
|
6 |
48% |
48% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
11% |
100% |
|
3 |
30% |
89% |
|
4 |
49% |
59% |
Median |
5 |
10% |
10% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
12% |
100% |
|
2 |
15% |
88% |
|
3 |
65% |
73% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
9% |
9% |
|
5 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
72% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
22% |
28% |
Last Result |
4 |
6% |
6% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
2% |
100% |
|
2 |
78% |
98% |
Median |
3 |
18% |
20% |
Last Result |
4 |
2% |
2% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
83% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
17% |
17% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Belang van Nederland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
81% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
19% |
19% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.7% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
67 |
66 |
0% |
63–70 |
63–70 |
63–70 |
62–70 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging |
52 |
60 |
0% |
60–67 |
60–67 |
60–67 |
59–67 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 |
75 |
54 |
0% |
54–60 |
52–60 |
52–60 |
50–60 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
53 |
0% |
51–56 |
50–56 |
50–56 |
48–56 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie |
51 |
47 |
0% |
47–53 |
46–53 |
46–53 |
45–53 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
77 |
49 |
0% |
46–50 |
45–50 |
42–50 |
41–50 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
70 |
47 |
0% |
45–48 |
43–48 |
43–49 |
43–52 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
74 |
46 |
0% |
40–46 |
40–46 |
38–46 |
36–46 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
61 |
42 |
0% |
40–43 |
39–43 |
38–44 |
38–47 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging |
18 |
38 |
0% |
37–42 |
37–43 |
37–43 |
37–43 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
42 |
0% |
37–43 |
37–43 |
36–43 |
33–43 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
50 |
41 |
0% |
37–42 |
37–42 |
36–42 |
32–42 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
56 |
38 |
0% |
37–39 |
35–39 |
35–39 |
34–42 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
78 |
39 |
0% |
36–39 |
34–39 |
34–39 |
31–39 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
37 |
35 |
0% |
33–36 |
33–36 |
32–37 |
32–39 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus |
61 |
35 |
0% |
33–35 |
32–37 |
30–37 |
27–37 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
60 |
35 |
0% |
33–35 |
32–37 |
30–37 |
27–37 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
73 |
35 |
0% |
32–35 |
31–35 |
31–35 |
26–35 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus |
58 |
32 |
0% |
28–32 |
28–33 |
26–33 |
23–33 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
57 |
32 |
0% |
28–32 |
27–33 |
26–33 |
23–33 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
32 |
31 |
0% |
29–31 |
29–32 |
29–32 |
28–34 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
49 |
28 |
0% |
25–28 |
25–28 |
24–28 |
20–28 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
39 |
12 |
0% |
10–13 |
10–13 |
8–13 |
8–13 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
62 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
63 |
10% |
99.3% |
|
64 |
2% |
89% |
Median |
65 |
20% |
87% |
|
66 |
48% |
67% |
|
67 |
2% |
19% |
Last Result |
68 |
5% |
17% |
|
69 |
0% |
12% |
|
70 |
12% |
12% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
100% |
|
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
0% |
100% |
|
59 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
60 |
59% |
99.0% |
Median |
61 |
11% |
40% |
|
62 |
11% |
29% |
|
63 |
0.2% |
18% |
|
64 |
0.8% |
18% |
|
65 |
6% |
17% |
|
66 |
0% |
12% |
|
67 |
12% |
12% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
50 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
51 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
52 |
5% |
99.1% |
|
53 |
3% |
94% |
|
54 |
49% |
92% |
Median |
55 |
0.8% |
43% |
|
56 |
2% |
42% |
|
57 |
12% |
40% |
|
58 |
6% |
28% |
|
59 |
10% |
22% |
|
60 |
12% |
12% |
|
61 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
48 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
49 |
1.1% |
99.4% |
|
50 |
5% |
98% |
|
51 |
4% |
93% |
Median |
52 |
7% |
89% |
|
53 |
57% |
82% |
|
54 |
5% |
25% |
|
55 |
8% |
20% |
|
56 |
12% |
12% |
|
57 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
44 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
45 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
46 |
6% |
99.1% |
|
47 |
50% |
93% |
Median |
48 |
1.4% |
43% |
|
49 |
8% |
42% |
|
50 |
10% |
34% |
|
51 |
10% |
24% |
Last Result |
52 |
1.4% |
14% |
|
53 |
13% |
13% |
|
54 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
39 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
40 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
41 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
42 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
43 |
1.1% |
97% |
|
44 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
45 |
2% |
95% |
|
46 |
18% |
94% |
|
47 |
2% |
75% |
Median |
48 |
0% |
73% |
|
49 |
48% |
73% |
|
50 |
25% |
25% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
43 |
6% |
100% |
|
44 |
3% |
94% |
|
45 |
12% |
91% |
Median |
46 |
1.2% |
80% |
|
47 |
49% |
78% |
|
48 |
26% |
30% |
|
49 |
2% |
4% |
|
50 |
0% |
2% |
|
51 |
0.6% |
1.5% |
|
52 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
53 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
36 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
37 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
38 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
39 |
2% |
97% |
|
40 |
6% |
95% |
|
41 |
9% |
90% |
|
42 |
6% |
81% |
|
43 |
0.1% |
75% |
|
44 |
1.4% |
75% |
Median |
45 |
0% |
73% |
|
46 |
73% |
73% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
37 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
38 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
39 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
40 |
5% |
95% |
Median |
41 |
19% |
90% |
|
42 |
54% |
71% |
|
43 |
14% |
17% |
|
44 |
1.1% |
3% |
|
45 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
46 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
47 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0% |
100% |
|
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
0% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
36 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
37 |
12% |
99.9% |
|
38 |
49% |
88% |
Median |
39 |
13% |
39% |
|
40 |
6% |
26% |
|
41 |
3% |
21% |
|
42 |
12% |
17% |
|
43 |
5% |
6% |
|
44 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
45 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
34 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
35 |
1.2% |
99.2% |
|
36 |
2% |
98% |
|
37 |
11% |
96% |
|
38 |
0.4% |
85% |
|
39 |
11% |
85% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
74% |
Median |
41 |
5% |
74% |
|
42 |
49% |
69% |
|
43 |
20% |
20% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
33 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
34 |
0.3% |
99.2% |
|
35 |
0.8% |
98.9% |
|
36 |
3% |
98% |
|
37 |
7% |
96% |
|
38 |
18% |
88% |
|
39 |
5% |
70% |
Median |
40 |
5% |
66% |
|
41 |
49% |
61% |
|
42 |
12% |
12% |
|
43 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
35 |
6% |
98.9% |
|
36 |
2% |
93% |
Median |
37 |
13% |
91% |
|
38 |
62% |
77% |
|
39 |
13% |
16% |
|
40 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
41 |
0.4% |
1.2% |
|
42 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
43 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
33 |
0.6% |
99.0% |
|
34 |
5% |
98% |
|
35 |
3% |
93% |
|
36 |
7% |
90% |
|
37 |
2% |
84% |
Median |
38 |
19% |
81% |
|
39 |
62% |
62% |
|
40 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
41 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
42 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
43 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
33 |
8% |
95% |
Median |
34 |
24% |
87% |
|
35 |
50% |
63% |
|
36 |
10% |
14% |
|
37 |
2% |
4% |
Last Result |
38 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
39 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
40 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
29 |
0.8% |
99.1% |
|
30 |
2% |
98% |
|
31 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
32 |
1.0% |
95% |
|
33 |
10% |
94% |
Median |
34 |
13% |
84% |
|
35 |
65% |
71% |
|
36 |
1.0% |
6% |
|
37 |
5% |
5% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
29 |
1.0% |
99.0% |
|
30 |
2% |
98% |
|
31 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
32 |
3% |
95% |
|
33 |
16% |
92% |
Median |
34 |
10% |
76% |
|
35 |
60% |
66% |
|
36 |
1.0% |
6% |
|
37 |
5% |
5% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.8% |
99.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
98% |
|
29 |
0% |
98% |
|
30 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
31 |
7% |
98% |
|
32 |
9% |
90% |
|
33 |
1.0% |
82% |
Median |
34 |
12% |
81% |
|
35 |
68% |
68% |
|
36 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
25 |
0.8% |
99.2% |
|
26 |
2% |
98% |
|
27 |
1.2% |
96% |
|
28 |
9% |
95% |
|
29 |
7% |
87% |
|
30 |
14% |
80% |
Median |
31 |
12% |
66% |
|
32 |
49% |
54% |
|
33 |
5% |
5% |
|
34 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
25 |
0.8% |
99.1% |
|
26 |
2% |
98% |
|
27 |
2% |
96% |
|
28 |
12% |
94% |
|
29 |
11% |
82% |
|
30 |
5% |
70% |
Median |
31 |
12% |
66% |
|
32 |
48% |
53% |
|
33 |
5% |
5% |
|
34 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
1.4% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
12% |
98.5% |
Median |
30 |
11% |
86% |
|
31 |
66% |
75% |
|
32 |
6% |
9% |
Last Result |
33 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
34 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
22 |
0.8% |
99.1% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
24 |
3% |
98% |
|
25 |
11% |
95% |
|
26 |
19% |
84% |
Median |
27 |
0.4% |
66% |
|
28 |
65% |
65% |
|
29 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
8 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
2% |
97% |
|
10 |
29% |
95% |
|
11 |
9% |
66% |
Median |
12 |
9% |
58% |
|
13 |
49% |
49% |
|
14 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: I&O Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 23–24 August 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1752
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.77%