Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 1–4 September 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract |
0.0% |
17.3% |
15.8–19.0% |
15.4–19.5% |
15.0–19.9% |
14.3–20.7% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie |
21.9% |
17.1% |
15.6–18.8% |
15.2–19.3% |
14.8–19.7% |
14.1–20.5% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid |
10.9% |
12.8% |
11.4–14.3% |
11.1–14.7% |
10.8–15.0% |
10.2–15.8% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid |
10.8% |
9.5% |
8.3–10.8% |
8.0–11.2% |
7.7–11.5% |
7.2–12.2% |
BoerBurgerBeweging |
1.0% |
9.5% |
8.3–10.8% |
8.0–11.2% |
7.7–11.5% |
7.2–12.2% |
Democraten 66 |
15.0% |
6.7% |
5.7–7.9% |
5.5–8.2% |
5.3–8.5% |
4.8–9.1% |
Partij voor de Dieren |
3.8% |
6.2% |
5.3–7.3% |
5.0–7.6% |
4.8–7.9% |
4.4–8.5% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
9.5% |
3.7% |
3.0–4.6% |
2.9–4.9% |
2.7–5.1% |
2.4–5.6% |
ChristenUnie |
3.4% |
3.3% |
2.7–4.2% |
2.5–4.4% |
2.3–4.6% |
2.1–5.1% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
2.1% |
2.3% |
1.8–3.1% |
1.7–3.3% |
1.5–3.5% |
1.3–3.9% |
Socialistische Partij |
6.0% |
2.2% |
1.7–3.0% |
1.6–3.2% |
1.5–3.4% |
1.2–3.8% |
Volt Europa |
2.4% |
2.2% |
1.7–3.0% |
1.6–3.2% |
1.5–3.4% |
1.2–3.8% |
Forum voor Democratie |
5.0% |
2.1% |
1.6–2.9% |
1.5–3.1% |
1.4–3.3% |
1.2–3.7% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 |
2.4% |
2.1% |
1.6–2.9% |
1.5–3.1% |
1.4–3.3% |
1.2–3.7% |
DENK |
2.0% |
2.0% |
1.5–2.7% |
1.4–3.0% |
1.3–3.1% |
1.1–3.5% |
Bij1 |
0.8% |
0.5% |
0.3–1.0% |
0.3–1.1% |
0.2–1.2% |
0.2–1.5% |
50Plus |
1.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.1–0.9% |
0.1–1.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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Confidence Intervals
Nieuw Sociaal Contract
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
3% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
97% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
23 |
3% |
96% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
93% |
|
25 |
25% |
93% |
|
26 |
5% |
68% |
|
27 |
49% |
63% |
Median |
28 |
8% |
13% |
|
29 |
0.7% |
6% |
|
30 |
4% |
5% |
|
31 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
22 |
1.2% |
99.6% |
|
23 |
3% |
98% |
|
24 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
25 |
30% |
95% |
|
26 |
2% |
64% |
|
27 |
50% |
63% |
Median |
28 |
4% |
13% |
|
29 |
0.5% |
9% |
|
30 |
3% |
8% |
|
31 |
5% |
5% |
|
32 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
16 |
48% |
98.7% |
|
17 |
1.3% |
51% |
Last Result, Median |
18 |
1.4% |
49% |
|
19 |
8% |
48% |
|
20 |
0.5% |
40% |
|
21 |
27% |
39% |
|
22 |
5% |
13% |
|
23 |
7% |
8% |
|
24 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
25 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
11 |
7% |
99.6% |
|
12 |
24% |
92% |
|
13 |
9% |
68% |
|
14 |
2% |
59% |
|
15 |
49% |
57% |
Median |
16 |
6% |
8% |
|
17 |
0.5% |
2% |
Last Result |
18 |
0.6% |
1.3% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
20 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
12 |
3% |
95% |
|
13 |
8% |
92% |
|
14 |
75% |
85% |
Median |
15 |
4% |
10% |
|
16 |
4% |
6% |
|
17 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
18 |
0.7% |
1.2% |
|
19 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
20 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
7 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
8 |
4% |
99.5% |
|
9 |
61% |
96% |
Median |
10 |
6% |
35% |
|
11 |
28% |
29% |
|
12 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
13 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
14 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
15 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
7 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
8 |
50% |
95% |
Median |
9 |
29% |
45% |
|
10 |
2% |
16% |
|
11 |
12% |
14% |
|
12 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
13 |
1.0% |
1.4% |
|
14 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
4% |
100% |
|
4 |
7% |
96% |
|
5 |
6% |
89% |
|
6 |
28% |
82% |
|
7 |
2% |
55% |
|
8 |
53% |
53% |
Median |
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
3 |
30% |
99.8% |
|
4 |
54% |
70% |
Median |
5 |
9% |
16% |
Last Result |
6 |
6% |
7% |
|
7 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
2 |
14% |
99.4% |
|
3 |
30% |
86% |
Last Result |
4 |
2% |
56% |
|
5 |
4% |
54% |
Median |
6 |
49% |
49% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
2% |
100% |
|
2 |
4% |
98% |
|
3 |
7% |
94% |
|
4 |
82% |
87% |
Median |
5 |
5% |
5% |
|
6 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
7% |
99.9% |
|
3 |
85% |
93% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
3% |
8% |
|
5 |
5% |
5% |
|
6 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
2 |
7% |
99.5% |
|
3 |
88% |
92% |
Median |
4 |
3% |
4% |
|
5 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
6 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
2 |
4% |
99.5% |
|
3 |
59% |
95% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
6% |
36% |
|
5 |
30% |
30% |
|
6 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
2% |
100% |
|
2 |
13% |
98% |
|
3 |
82% |
85% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
2% |
3% |
|
5 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
6 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
62% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
29% |
38% |
Last Result |
2 |
8% |
9% |
|
3 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
70% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
7% |
30% |
Last Result |
2 |
24% |
24% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
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Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
67 |
65 |
0% |
65–68 |
64–70 |
62–71 |
58–73 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging |
52 |
57 |
0% |
57–63 |
57–64 |
55–64 |
52–66 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 |
75 |
52 |
0% |
52–57 |
52–61 |
51–62 |
50–63 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie |
77 |
59 |
0% |
49–59 |
45–59 |
45–60 |
45–60 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
51 |
0% |
51–54 |
50–56 |
47–58 |
46–58 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
74 |
53 |
0% |
46–53 |
43–53 |
43–55 |
43–55 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid |
51 |
43 |
0% |
43–48 |
43–50 |
42–53 |
40–53 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
50 |
49 |
0% |
44–49 |
42–49 |
42–52 |
40–52 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
50 |
0% |
43–50 |
40–50 |
40–52 |
40–52 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
78 |
48 |
0% |
45–49 |
43–51 |
43–51 |
41–51 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie – Socialistische Partij |
70 |
41 |
0% |
41–45 |
39–46 |
39–46 |
37–50 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
73 |
44 |
0% |
40–44 |
38–45 |
38–46 |
37–48 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
61 |
37 |
0% |
37–41 |
35–42 |
34–45 |
34–47 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus |
61 |
44 |
0% |
37–44 |
34–44 |
34–44 |
33–46 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie |
60 |
44 |
0% |
36–44 |
34–44 |
34–44 |
33–45 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
56 |
33 |
0% |
33–38 |
30–38 |
30–40 |
29–42 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus |
58 |
38 |
0% |
33–38 |
32–39 |
32–39 |
31–40 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
57 |
38 |
0% |
33–38 |
32–38 |
32–39 |
31–39 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging |
18 |
30 |
0% |
30–36 |
30–36 |
30–37 |
25–40 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
49 |
35 |
0% |
30–35 |
29–36 |
29–36 |
28–37 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
37 |
28 |
0% |
28–32 |
26–33 |
26–34 |
25–37 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
32 |
24 |
0% |
24–27 |
22–27 |
22–29 |
20–31 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
39 |
17 |
0% |
13–17 |
13–18 |
11–18 |
11–19 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
58 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
60 |
0.7% |
98.5% |
|
61 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
62 |
1.2% |
98% |
|
63 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
64 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
65 |
55% |
95% |
|
66 |
27% |
39% |
Median |
67 |
2% |
13% |
Last Result |
68 |
1.3% |
11% |
|
69 |
4% |
10% |
|
70 |
1.1% |
6% |
|
71 |
3% |
5% |
|
72 |
0% |
1.3% |
|
73 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
74 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
1.0% |
100% |
Last Result |
53 |
0.6% |
99.0% |
|
54 |
0% |
98% |
|
55 |
1.2% |
98% |
|
56 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
57 |
48% |
96% |
|
58 |
0.7% |
48% |
Median |
59 |
1.5% |
47% |
|
60 |
24% |
46% |
|
61 |
7% |
22% |
|
62 |
1.3% |
14% |
|
63 |
7% |
13% |
|
64 |
4% |
6% |
|
65 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
66 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
67 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
68 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
69 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
70 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
71 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
48 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
49 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
50 |
1.2% |
99.6% |
|
51 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
52 |
49% |
97% |
|
53 |
0.1% |
49% |
Median |
54 |
0.7% |
48% |
|
55 |
2% |
48% |
|
56 |
2% |
45% |
|
57 |
36% |
44% |
|
58 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
59 |
0.5% |
7% |
|
60 |
2% |
7% |
|
61 |
0.9% |
5% |
|
62 |
4% |
4% |
|
63 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
64 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
65 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
66 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
67 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
68 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
69 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
44 |
0% |
100% |
|
45 |
6% |
99.9% |
|
46 |
0.5% |
94% |
|
47 |
0.8% |
93% |
|
48 |
0.5% |
92% |
|
49 |
24% |
92% |
|
50 |
0.6% |
68% |
|
51 |
4% |
67% |
|
52 |
1.3% |
63% |
|
53 |
6% |
62% |
|
54 |
0.4% |
56% |
|
55 |
2% |
55% |
|
56 |
1.1% |
54% |
|
57 |
0.3% |
53% |
|
58 |
0.9% |
52% |
Median |
59 |
48% |
51% |
|
60 |
3% |
4% |
|
61 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
43 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
44 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
45 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
46 |
1.1% |
99.6% |
|
47 |
1.3% |
98.6% |
|
48 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
49 |
2% |
97% |
|
50 |
1.2% |
95% |
|
51 |
48% |
94% |
|
52 |
35% |
46% |
Median |
53 |
0.6% |
11% |
|
54 |
0.1% |
10% |
|
55 |
4% |
10% |
|
56 |
1.0% |
6% |
|
57 |
0% |
5% |
|
58 |
5% |
5% |
|
59 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
41 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
43 |
7% |
99.7% |
|
44 |
1.1% |
93% |
|
45 |
0.8% |
92% |
|
46 |
24% |
91% |
|
47 |
1.1% |
67% |
|
48 |
1.1% |
66% |
|
49 |
4% |
65% |
|
50 |
2% |
61% |
|
51 |
4% |
59% |
|
52 |
2% |
55% |
|
53 |
49% |
53% |
Median |
54 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
55 |
3% |
4% |
|
56 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
57 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
58 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
59 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
38 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
39 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
40 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
41 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
42 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
43 |
49% |
97% |
|
44 |
3% |
49% |
Median |
45 |
1.0% |
46% |
|
46 |
24% |
45% |
|
47 |
4% |
21% |
|
48 |
7% |
17% |
|
49 |
4% |
10% |
|
50 |
1.0% |
6% |
|
51 |
1.0% |
5% |
Last Result |
52 |
0% |
4% |
|
53 |
4% |
4% |
|
54 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
55 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
56 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
38 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
39 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
40 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
41 |
1.1% |
99.5% |
|
42 |
7% |
98% |
|
43 |
1.0% |
92% |
|
44 |
2% |
91% |
|
45 |
25% |
89% |
|
46 |
2% |
64% |
|
47 |
7% |
62% |
|
48 |
0.7% |
55% |
|
49 |
50% |
55% |
Median |
50 |
0.7% |
5% |
Last Result |
51 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
52 |
3% |
3% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
38 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
39 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
40 |
7% |
99.8% |
|
41 |
0.9% |
93% |
|
42 |
2% |
92% |
|
43 |
24% |
91% |
|
44 |
0.2% |
66% |
|
45 |
0.7% |
66% |
|
46 |
4% |
65% |
|
47 |
2% |
61% |
|
48 |
0.4% |
59% |
|
49 |
6% |
59% |
|
50 |
49% |
53% |
Median |
51 |
0% |
4% |
|
52 |
3% |
4% |
|
53 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
54 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
55 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
56 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
40 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
41 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
42 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
|
43 |
8% |
98% |
|
44 |
0.5% |
91% |
|
45 |
28% |
90% |
|
46 |
0.2% |
63% |
|
47 |
5% |
62% |
|
48 |
48% |
58% |
Median |
49 |
5% |
10% |
|
50 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
51 |
5% |
5% |
|
52 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie – Socialistische Partij

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
37 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
|
38 |
0.4% |
99.3% |
|
39 |
4% |
98.9% |
|
40 |
0.9% |
94% |
|
41 |
48% |
93% |
|
42 |
2% |
46% |
Median |
43 |
4% |
43% |
|
44 |
0.7% |
39% |
|
45 |
30% |
39% |
|
46 |
6% |
9% |
|
47 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
48 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
49 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
50 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
36 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
37 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
38 |
8% |
99.4% |
|
39 |
1.0% |
92% |
|
40 |
1.0% |
91% |
|
41 |
5% |
90% |
|
42 |
27% |
85% |
|
43 |
2% |
58% |
|
44 |
48% |
57% |
Median |
45 |
4% |
9% |
|
46 |
3% |
5% |
|
47 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
48 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
33 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
34 |
4% |
99.7% |
|
35 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
36 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
37 |
48% |
94% |
|
38 |
0.5% |
46% |
Median |
39 |
1.5% |
45% |
|
40 |
5% |
44% |
|
41 |
30% |
39% |
|
42 |
4% |
9% |
|
43 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
44 |
1.1% |
4% |
|
45 |
2% |
3% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
48 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
32 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
33 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
34 |
6% |
99.3% |
|
35 |
1.1% |
93% |
|
36 |
1.3% |
92% |
|
37 |
2% |
90% |
|
38 |
5% |
88% |
|
39 |
25% |
83% |
|
40 |
0.7% |
58% |
|
41 |
4% |
57% |
|
42 |
1.1% |
53% |
|
43 |
0.4% |
52% |
Median |
44 |
51% |
52% |
|
45 |
0% |
0.9% |
|
46 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
32 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
33 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
34 |
7% |
99.2% |
|
35 |
2% |
93% |
|
36 |
1.2% |
91% |
|
37 |
25% |
90% |
|
38 |
5% |
64% |
|
39 |
2% |
60% |
|
40 |
4% |
58% |
|
41 |
1.3% |
54% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
52% |
|
43 |
0.4% |
52% |
Median |
44 |
51% |
52% |
|
45 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
1.5% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
4% |
98% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
32 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
33 |
50% |
95% |
|
34 |
0.5% |
45% |
Median |
35 |
0.6% |
44% |
|
36 |
11% |
44% |
|
37 |
4% |
32% |
|
38 |
24% |
28% |
|
39 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
40 |
3% |
4% |
|
41 |
0.8% |
1.3% |
|
42 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
29 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
31 |
0.9% |
99.7% |
|
32 |
8% |
98.8% |
|
33 |
0.9% |
91% |
|
34 |
3% |
90% |
|
35 |
0.9% |
86% |
|
36 |
28% |
86% |
|
37 |
0.4% |
57% |
|
38 |
48% |
57% |
Median |
39 |
8% |
9% |
|
40 |
0.9% |
1.3% |
|
41 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
31 |
1.4% |
99.6% |
|
32 |
8% |
98% |
|
33 |
1.2% |
90% |
|
34 |
26% |
89% |
|
35 |
0.9% |
63% |
|
36 |
5% |
62% |
|
37 |
0.4% |
57% |
|
38 |
52% |
57% |
Median |
39 |
4% |
5% |
|
40 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
41 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
99.0% |
|
27 |
0% |
99.0% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
29 |
0.5% |
98.8% |
|
30 |
48% |
98% |
|
31 |
1.2% |
50% |
Median |
32 |
0.8% |
49% |
|
33 |
8% |
48% |
|
34 |
0.9% |
40% |
|
35 |
28% |
39% |
|
36 |
8% |
11% |
|
37 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
39 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
40 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
41 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
42 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
28 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
29 |
7% |
98% |
|
30 |
2% |
91% |
|
31 |
26% |
89% |
|
32 |
1.2% |
63% |
|
33 |
5% |
62% |
|
34 |
1.3% |
57% |
|
35 |
48% |
56% |
Median |
36 |
7% |
8% |
|
37 |
1.0% |
1.4% |
|
38 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
25 |
1.1% |
99.5% |
|
26 |
4% |
98% |
|
27 |
1.0% |
94% |
|
28 |
49% |
93% |
|
29 |
0.8% |
44% |
Median |
30 |
27% |
43% |
|
31 |
2% |
16% |
|
32 |
7% |
14% |
|
33 |
4% |
7% |
|
34 |
2% |
4% |
|
35 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
36 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
37 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
Last Result |
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
1.4% |
99.8% |
|
21 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
22 |
4% |
98% |
|
23 |
1.4% |
94% |
|
24 |
48% |
93% |
|
25 |
2% |
44% |
Median |
26 |
0.8% |
43% |
|
27 |
37% |
42% |
|
28 |
1.0% |
5% |
|
29 |
2% |
4% |
|
30 |
0% |
2% |
|
31 |
2% |
2% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
3% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
13 |
7% |
96% |
|
14 |
5% |
90% |
|
15 |
2% |
85% |
|
16 |
3% |
83% |
|
17 |
73% |
79% |
Median |
18 |
4% |
6% |
|
19 |
2% |
2% |
|
20 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): EenVandaag
- Fieldwork period: 1–4 September 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 941
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.31%