Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 8–11 September 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract | 0.0% | 18.0% | 16.8–19.3% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.2–20.0% | 15.7–20.6% |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 10.9% | 17.6% | 16.4–18.8% | 16.1–19.2% | 15.8–19.5% | 15.3–20.1% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.9% | 16.5% | 15.4–17.7% | 15.0–18.1% | 14.8–18.4% | 14.3–19.0% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 10.8% | 9.1% | 8.2–10.1% | 8.0–10.3% | 7.8–10.6% | 7.4–11.1% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1.0% | 9.0% | 8.1–10.0% | 7.9–10.2% | 7.7–10.5% | 7.3–10.9% |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.3–5.7% | 4.1–5.9% | 4.0–6.1% | 3.7–6.4% |
| Democraten 66 | 15.0% | 4.1% | 3.6–4.8% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.3–5.2% | 3.0–5.6% |
| Socialistische Partij | 6.0% | 3.3% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.6–4.1% | 2.5–4.3% | 2.3–4.6% |
| Volt Europa | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.3% | 2.1–3.5% | 2.0–3.6% | 1.8–3.9% |
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.9–3.5% | 1.7–3.8% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 9.5% | 2.6% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.9–3.5% | 1.7–3.8% |
| Forum voor Democratie | 5.0% | 2.6% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.9–3.5% | 1.7–3.8% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.9–3.5% | 1.7–3.8% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.7% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–2.0% | 0.7–2.2% |
| DENK | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.7% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–2.0% | 0.7–2.2% |
| 50Plus | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.1% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.5% |
| Belang van Nederland | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% |
| Bij1 | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract | 0 | 28 | 27–30 | 26–31 | 26–31 | 26–33 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 17 | 25 | 24–29 | 24–31 | 24–32 | 24–32 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 34 | 25 | 24–26 | 22–27 | 22–27 | 22–28 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 17 | 14 | 13–17 | 12–17 | 12–17 | 11–17 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1 | 15 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 12–16 | 11–16 |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 6 | 8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Democraten 66 | 24 | 5 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Socialistische Partij | 9 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–6 |
| Volt Europa | 3 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 2 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–6 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 15 | 4 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 2–6 |
| Forum voor Democratie | 8 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 3 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| DENK | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 0–3 |
| 50Plus | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Belang van Nederland | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Bij1 | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 5% | 99.5% | |
| 27 | 31% | 95% | |
| 28 | 48% | 63% | Median |
| 29 | 3% | 16% | |
| 30 | 5% | 13% | |
| 31 | 5% | 7% | |
| 32 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 33 | 1.5% | 1.5% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 33% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 52% | 67% | Median |
| 26 | 1.2% | 14% | |
| 27 | 0.9% | 13% | |
| 28 | 2% | 12% | |
| 29 | 5% | 11% | |
| 30 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 31 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 32 | 4% | 4% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 5% | 95% | |
| 24 | 5% | 90% | |
| 25 | 48% | 86% | Median |
| 26 | 29% | 37% | |
| 27 | 7% | 8% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 6% | 98% | |
| 13 | 11% | 93% | |
| 14 | 49% | 82% | Median |
| 15 | 1.0% | 33% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 32% | |
| 17 | 32% | 32% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 12 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 13 | 10% | 96% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 86% | |
| 15 | 81% | 85% | Median |
| 16 | 4% | 4% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 32% | 97% | Last Result |
| 7 | 11% | 66% | |
| 8 | 52% | 54% | Median |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 5 | 51% | 99.5% | Median |
| 6 | 14% | 48% | |
| 7 | 34% | 34% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 4 | 37% | 99.4% | |
| 5 | 61% | 62% | Median |
| 6 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 3% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 4 | 84% | 97% | Median |
| 5 | 8% | 13% | |
| 6 | 5% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 50% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 33% | 50% | |
| 4 | 16% | 17% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 34% | 98% | |
| 4 | 15% | 64% | Median |
| 5 | 3% | 49% | |
| 6 | 46% | 46% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 13% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 84% | 87% | Median |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 12% | 98% | Last Result |
| 4 | 39% | 87% | Median |
| 5 | 48% | 48% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 55% | 99.8% | Median |
| 2 | 39% | 45% | |
| 3 | 5% | 5% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 1 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 2 | 96% | 97% | Median |
| 3 | 0.7% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 39% | 100% | |
| 1 | 60% | 61% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Belang van Nederland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 90% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 10% | 10% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 68% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 32% | 32% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 67 | 71 | 0% | 68–71 | 65–74 | 64–74 | 64–74 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging | 52 | 65 | 0% | 65–68 | 61–70 | 60–70 | 60–71 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 | 75 | 55 | 0% | 55–61 | 54–61 | 53–63 | 53–63 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 56 | 0% | 53–58 | 51–59 | 51–61 | 51–61 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 51 | 50 | 0% | 50–55 | 48–56 | 47–56 | 47–58 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 77 | 54 | 0% | 48–54 | 47–54 | 46–54 | 46–54 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 70 | 43 | 0% | 41–45 | 41–48 | 41–51 | 41–51 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 74 | 49 | 0% | 43–50 | 43–50 | 43–50 | 43–51 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging | 18 | 40 | 0% | 39–41 | 38–44 | 38–47 | 37–47 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 50 | 44 | 0% | 42–46 | 39–46 | 39–46 | 39–47 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 45 | 0% | 40–46 | 39–46 | 39–46 | 39–46 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 61 | 38 | 0% | 37–41 | 37–43 | 37–46 | 36–46 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 56 | 36 | 0% | 34–37 | 34–41 | 34–42 | 33–42 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 78 | 38 | 0% | 37–39 | 36–40 | 36–41 | 35–43 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus | 61 | 38 | 0% | 35–41 | 35–41 | 33–41 | 33–43 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 60 | 38 | 0% | 34–40 | 34–40 | 33–40 | 33–42 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 37 | 33 | 0% | 30–36 | 30–37 | 30–40 | 30–40 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 73 | 36 | 0% | 33–36 | 32–36 | 32–39 | 32–39 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus | 58 | 35 | 0% | 32–36 | 31–36 | 30–36 | 30–39 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 32 | 31 | 0% | 27–32 | 27–34 | 27–36 | 27–36 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 57 | 35 | 0% | 31–35 | 30–35 | 30–35 | 30–38 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 49 | 30 | 0% | 27–31 | 26–31 | 26–32 | 26–34 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 39 | 10 | 0% | 10–11 | 9–11 | 8–12 | 7–12 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 5% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 95% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 67 | 2% | 95% | Last Result |
| 68 | 33% | 93% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 60% | Median |
| 70 | 3% | 60% | |
| 71 | 48% | 57% | |
| 72 | 1.0% | 9% | |
| 73 | 3% | 8% | |
| 74 | 5% | 5% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 5% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 64 | 4% | 95% | |
| 65 | 76% | 90% | Median |
| 66 | 2% | 15% | |
| 67 | 2% | 13% | |
| 68 | 4% | 11% | |
| 69 | 2% | 7% | |
| 70 | 4% | 5% | |
| 71 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 5% | 100% | |
| 54 | 3% | 95% | |
| 55 | 48% | 93% | Median |
| 56 | 0.3% | 45% | |
| 57 | 30% | 44% | |
| 58 | 3% | 15% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 12% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 11% | |
| 61 | 6% | 10% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 63 | 4% | 4% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 7% | 100% | |
| 52 | 3% | 93% | |
| 53 | 29% | 91% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 61% | Median |
| 55 | 2% | 61% | |
| 56 | 46% | 59% | |
| 57 | 2% | 13% | |
| 58 | 2% | 12% | |
| 59 | 5% | 9% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 61 | 4% | 4% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 5% | 100% | |
| 48 | 4% | 95% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 50 | 75% | 90% | Median |
| 51 | 0.6% | 16% | Last Result |
| 52 | 2% | 15% | |
| 53 | 2% | 13% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 11% | |
| 55 | 5% | 11% | |
| 56 | 4% | 6% | |
| 57 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 58 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 5% | 96% | |
| 48 | 4% | 91% | |
| 49 | 3% | 87% | |
| 50 | 5% | 84% | |
| 51 | 3% | 80% | Median |
| 52 | 0.2% | 77% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 77% | |
| 54 | 76% | 76% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 29% | 99.7% | Median |
| 42 | 2% | 71% | |
| 43 | 56% | 69% | |
| 44 | 0.7% | 12% | |
| 45 | 3% | 12% | |
| 46 | 1.1% | 9% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 8% | |
| 48 | 3% | 8% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 51 | 4% | 4% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 11% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 2% | 89% | |
| 45 | 0.9% | 87% | |
| 46 | 3% | 86% | |
| 47 | 4% | 84% | Median |
| 48 | 3% | 80% | |
| 49 | 46% | 77% | |
| 50 | 30% | 31% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 5% | 99.3% | |
| 39 | 29% | 94% | |
| 40 | 51% | 64% | Median |
| 41 | 5% | 13% | |
| 42 | 3% | 8% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 46 | 0% | 4% | |
| 47 | 4% | 4% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 41 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 42 | 7% | 93% | |
| 43 | 3% | 86% | |
| 44 | 34% | 83% | Median |
| 45 | 1.3% | 48% | |
| 46 | 47% | 47% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 6% | 94% | |
| 41 | 0.8% | 87% | |
| 42 | 2% | 87% | |
| 43 | 3% | 85% | Median |
| 44 | 3% | 82% | |
| 45 | 49% | 80% | |
| 46 | 30% | 30% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 99.8% | Median |
| 37 | 31% | 99.5% | |
| 38 | 51% | 69% | |
| 39 | 6% | 17% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 12% | |
| 41 | 2% | 11% | |
| 42 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 43 | 3% | 8% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 46 | 4% | 4% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 34% | 99.4% | Median |
| 35 | 6% | 65% | |
| 36 | 48% | 59% | |
| 37 | 2% | 11% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 9% | |
| 39 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 41 | 3% | 7% | |
| 42 | 4% | 4% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 36 | 7% | 99.5% | Median |
| 37 | 6% | 93% | |
| 38 | 51% | 87% | |
| 39 | 30% | 35% | |
| 40 | 2% | 6% | |
| 41 | 3% | 4% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 4% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 35 | 7% | 95% | |
| 36 | 1.1% | 88% | |
| 37 | 34% | 87% | |
| 38 | 5% | 52% | Median |
| 39 | 0.1% | 47% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 47% | |
| 41 | 46% | 47% | |
| 42 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 8% | 95% | |
| 35 | 1.0% | 88% | |
| 36 | 4% | 87% | |
| 37 | 32% | 82% | Median |
| 38 | 3% | 50% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 47% | |
| 40 | 46% | 47% | |
| 41 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 31% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 69% | Median |
| 32 | 4% | 69% | |
| 33 | 53% | 65% | |
| 34 | 0.8% | 12% | |
| 35 | 0.8% | 11% | |
| 36 | 5% | 11% | |
| 37 | 1.0% | 6% | Last Result |
| 38 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 40 | 4% | 4% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 5% | 95% | |
| 34 | 8% | 90% | Median |
| 35 | 1.5% | 82% | |
| 36 | 77% | 81% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 39 | 3% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 5% | 95% | |
| 32 | 4% | 90% | |
| 33 | 32% | 86% | |
| 34 | 2% | 54% | Median |
| 35 | 5% | 52% | |
| 36 | 46% | 47% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 39 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 31% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 4% | 69% | |
| 29 | 5% | 65% | Median |
| 30 | 2% | 60% | |
| 31 | 48% | 58% | |
| 32 | 2% | 11% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 34 | 4% | 8% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 36 | 4% | 4% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 10% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 4% | 90% | |
| 32 | 2% | 86% | |
| 33 | 32% | 83% | Median |
| 34 | 0.4% | 52% | |
| 35 | 50% | 51% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 37 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 38 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 6% | 95% | |
| 28 | 3% | 88% | |
| 29 | 33% | 85% | Median |
| 30 | 3% | 52% | |
| 31 | 46% | 50% | |
| 32 | 3% | 4% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 98% | |
| 9 | 5% | 97% | Median |
| 10 | 43% | 92% | |
| 11 | 46% | 49% | |
| 12 | 3% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: I&O Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 8–11 September 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1649
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.78%