Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 8–11 September 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract |
0.0% |
18.0% |
16.8–19.3% |
16.5–19.6% |
16.2–20.0% |
15.7–20.6% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid |
10.9% |
17.6% |
16.4–18.8% |
16.1–19.2% |
15.8–19.5% |
15.3–20.1% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie |
21.9% |
16.5% |
15.4–17.7% |
15.0–18.1% |
14.8–18.4% |
14.3–19.0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid |
10.8% |
9.1% |
8.2–10.1% |
8.0–10.3% |
7.8–10.6% |
7.4–11.1% |
BoerBurgerBeweging |
1.0% |
9.0% |
8.1–10.0% |
7.9–10.2% |
7.7–10.5% |
7.3–10.9% |
Partij voor de Dieren |
3.8% |
4.9% |
4.3–5.7% |
4.1–5.9% |
4.0–6.1% |
3.7–6.4% |
Democraten 66 |
15.0% |
4.1% |
3.6–4.8% |
3.4–5.0% |
3.3–5.2% |
3.0–5.6% |
Socialistische Partij |
6.0% |
3.3% |
2.8–3.9% |
2.6–4.1% |
2.5–4.3% |
2.3–4.6% |
Volt Europa |
2.4% |
2.7% |
2.3–3.3% |
2.1–3.5% |
2.0–3.6% |
1.8–3.9% |
ChristenUnie |
3.4% |
2.6% |
2.2–3.2% |
2.0–3.4% |
1.9–3.5% |
1.7–3.8% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
9.5% |
2.6% |
2.2–3.2% |
2.0–3.4% |
1.9–3.5% |
1.7–3.8% |
Forum voor Democratie |
5.0% |
2.6% |
2.2–3.2% |
2.0–3.4% |
1.9–3.5% |
1.7–3.8% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
2.1% |
2.6% |
2.2–3.2% |
2.0–3.4% |
1.9–3.5% |
1.7–3.8% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 |
2.4% |
1.3% |
1.0–1.7% |
0.9–1.8% |
0.8–2.0% |
0.7–2.2% |
DENK |
2.0% |
1.3% |
1.0–1.7% |
0.9–1.8% |
0.8–2.0% |
0.7–2.2% |
50Plus |
1.0% |
0.7% |
0.5–1.1% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.4–1.3% |
0.3–1.5% |
Belang van Nederland |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.2–1.1% |
Bij1 |
0.8% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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
Confidence Intervals
Nieuw Sociaal Contract
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
5% |
99.5% |
|
27 |
31% |
95% |
|
28 |
48% |
63% |
Median |
29 |
3% |
16% |
|
30 |
5% |
13% |
|
31 |
5% |
7% |
|
32 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
33 |
1.5% |
1.5% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
24 |
33% |
99.7% |
|
25 |
52% |
67% |
Median |
26 |
1.2% |
14% |
|
27 |
0.9% |
13% |
|
28 |
2% |
12% |
|
29 |
5% |
11% |
|
30 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
31 |
1.0% |
5% |
|
32 |
4% |
4% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
5% |
99.8% |
|
23 |
5% |
95% |
|
24 |
5% |
90% |
|
25 |
48% |
86% |
Median |
26 |
29% |
37% |
|
27 |
7% |
8% |
|
28 |
0.8% |
1.3% |
|
29 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
30 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
31 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
2% |
100% |
|
12 |
6% |
98% |
|
13 |
11% |
93% |
|
14 |
49% |
82% |
Median |
15 |
1.0% |
33% |
|
16 |
0.3% |
32% |
|
17 |
32% |
32% |
Last Result |
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
12 |
4% |
99.3% |
|
13 |
10% |
96% |
|
14 |
1.0% |
86% |
|
15 |
81% |
85% |
Median |
16 |
4% |
4% |
|
17 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
3% |
100% |
|
6 |
32% |
97% |
Last Result |
7 |
11% |
66% |
|
8 |
52% |
54% |
Median |
9 |
2% |
2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
5 |
51% |
99.5% |
Median |
6 |
14% |
48% |
|
7 |
34% |
34% |
|
8 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
4 |
37% |
99.4% |
|
5 |
61% |
62% |
Median |
6 |
0.9% |
1.3% |
|
7 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
3 |
3% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
4 |
84% |
97% |
Median |
5 |
8% |
13% |
|
6 |
5% |
5% |
|
7 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
50% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
33% |
50% |
|
4 |
16% |
17% |
|
5 |
0.4% |
1.0% |
Last Result |
6 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
2% |
100% |
|
3 |
34% |
98% |
|
4 |
15% |
64% |
Median |
5 |
3% |
49% |
|
6 |
46% |
46% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
13% |
99.9% |
|
4 |
84% |
87% |
Median |
5 |
3% |
3% |
|
6 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
2% |
100% |
|
3 |
12% |
98% |
Last Result |
4 |
39% |
87% |
Median |
5 |
48% |
48% |
|
6 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
1 |
55% |
99.8% |
Median |
2 |
39% |
45% |
|
3 |
5% |
5% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
1 |
3% |
99.1% |
|
2 |
96% |
97% |
Median |
3 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
39% |
100% |
|
1 |
60% |
61% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.8% |
1.2% |
|
3 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Belang van Nederland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
90% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
10% |
10% |
|
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
68% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
32% |
32% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
67 |
71 |
0% |
68–71 |
65–74 |
64–74 |
64–74 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging |
52 |
65 |
0% |
65–68 |
61–70 |
60–70 |
60–71 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 |
75 |
55 |
0% |
55–61 |
54–61 |
53–63 |
53–63 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
56 |
0% |
53–58 |
51–59 |
51–61 |
51–61 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie |
51 |
50 |
0% |
50–55 |
48–56 |
47–56 |
47–58 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
77 |
54 |
0% |
48–54 |
47–54 |
46–54 |
46–54 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
70 |
43 |
0% |
41–45 |
41–48 |
41–51 |
41–51 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
74 |
49 |
0% |
43–50 |
43–50 |
43–50 |
43–51 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging |
18 |
40 |
0% |
39–41 |
38–44 |
38–47 |
37–47 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
50 |
44 |
0% |
42–46 |
39–46 |
39–46 |
39–47 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
45 |
0% |
40–46 |
39–46 |
39–46 |
39–46 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
61 |
38 |
0% |
37–41 |
37–43 |
37–46 |
36–46 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
56 |
36 |
0% |
34–37 |
34–41 |
34–42 |
33–42 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
78 |
38 |
0% |
37–39 |
36–40 |
36–41 |
35–43 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus |
61 |
38 |
0% |
35–41 |
35–41 |
33–41 |
33–43 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
60 |
38 |
0% |
34–40 |
34–40 |
33–40 |
33–42 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
37 |
33 |
0% |
30–36 |
30–37 |
30–40 |
30–40 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
73 |
36 |
0% |
33–36 |
32–36 |
32–39 |
32–39 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus |
58 |
35 |
0% |
32–36 |
31–36 |
30–36 |
30–39 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
32 |
31 |
0% |
27–32 |
27–34 |
27–36 |
27–36 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
57 |
35 |
0% |
31–35 |
30–35 |
30–35 |
30–38 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
49 |
30 |
0% |
27–31 |
26–31 |
26–32 |
26–34 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
39 |
10 |
0% |
10–11 |
9–11 |
8–12 |
7–12 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
64 |
5% |
100% |
|
65 |
0% |
95% |
|
66 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
67 |
2% |
95% |
Last Result |
68 |
33% |
93% |
|
69 |
0.3% |
60% |
Median |
70 |
3% |
60% |
|
71 |
48% |
57% |
|
72 |
1.0% |
9% |
|
73 |
3% |
8% |
|
74 |
5% |
5% |
|
75 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
100% |
|
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
0% |
100% |
|
59 |
0% |
100% |
|
60 |
5% |
100% |
|
61 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
62 |
0.1% |
95% |
|
63 |
0.1% |
95% |
|
64 |
4% |
95% |
|
65 |
76% |
90% |
Median |
66 |
2% |
15% |
|
67 |
2% |
13% |
|
68 |
4% |
11% |
|
69 |
2% |
7% |
|
70 |
4% |
5% |
|
71 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
72 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
53 |
5% |
100% |
|
54 |
3% |
95% |
|
55 |
48% |
93% |
Median |
56 |
0.3% |
45% |
|
57 |
30% |
44% |
|
58 |
3% |
15% |
|
59 |
0.7% |
12% |
|
60 |
0.6% |
11% |
|
61 |
6% |
10% |
|
62 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
63 |
4% |
4% |
|
64 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
51 |
7% |
100% |
|
52 |
3% |
93% |
|
53 |
29% |
91% |
|
54 |
0.7% |
61% |
Median |
55 |
2% |
61% |
|
56 |
46% |
59% |
|
57 |
2% |
13% |
|
58 |
2% |
12% |
|
59 |
5% |
9% |
|
60 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
61 |
4% |
4% |
|
62 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
47 |
5% |
100% |
|
48 |
4% |
95% |
|
49 |
0.5% |
91% |
|
50 |
75% |
90% |
Median |
51 |
0.6% |
16% |
Last Result |
52 |
2% |
15% |
|
53 |
2% |
13% |
|
54 |
0.6% |
11% |
|
55 |
5% |
11% |
|
56 |
4% |
6% |
|
57 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
58 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
45 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
46 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
47 |
5% |
96% |
|
48 |
4% |
91% |
|
49 |
3% |
87% |
|
50 |
5% |
84% |
|
51 |
3% |
80% |
Median |
52 |
0.2% |
77% |
|
53 |
0.4% |
77% |
|
54 |
76% |
76% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
56 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
57 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
39 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
40 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
41 |
29% |
99.7% |
Median |
42 |
2% |
71% |
|
43 |
56% |
69% |
|
44 |
0.7% |
12% |
|
45 |
3% |
12% |
|
46 |
1.1% |
9% |
|
47 |
0.2% |
8% |
|
48 |
3% |
8% |
|
49 |
0.1% |
5% |
|
50 |
0.1% |
5% |
|
51 |
4% |
4% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
42 |
0% |
100% |
|
43 |
11% |
99.9% |
|
44 |
2% |
89% |
|
45 |
0.9% |
87% |
|
46 |
3% |
86% |
|
47 |
4% |
84% |
Median |
48 |
3% |
80% |
|
49 |
46% |
77% |
|
50 |
30% |
31% |
|
51 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
52 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
53 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0% |
100% |
|
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
0% |
100% |
|
35 |
0% |
100% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
37 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
38 |
5% |
99.3% |
|
39 |
29% |
94% |
|
40 |
51% |
64% |
Median |
41 |
5% |
13% |
|
42 |
3% |
8% |
|
43 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
44 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
45 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
46 |
0% |
4% |
|
47 |
4% |
4% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
36 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
37 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
38 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
39 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
40 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
41 |
1.3% |
95% |
|
42 |
7% |
93% |
|
43 |
3% |
86% |
|
44 |
34% |
83% |
Median |
45 |
1.3% |
48% |
|
46 |
47% |
47% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
48 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
37 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
39 |
6% |
99.8% |
|
40 |
6% |
94% |
|
41 |
0.8% |
87% |
|
42 |
2% |
87% |
|
43 |
3% |
85% |
Median |
44 |
3% |
82% |
|
45 |
49% |
80% |
|
46 |
30% |
30% |
|
47 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
48 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
49 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
36 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
Median |
37 |
31% |
99.5% |
|
38 |
51% |
69% |
|
39 |
6% |
17% |
|
40 |
0.8% |
12% |
|
41 |
2% |
11% |
|
42 |
1.3% |
9% |
|
43 |
3% |
8% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
5% |
|
45 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
46 |
4% |
4% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
32 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
33 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
34 |
34% |
99.4% |
Median |
35 |
6% |
65% |
|
36 |
48% |
59% |
|
37 |
2% |
11% |
|
38 |
0.5% |
9% |
|
39 |
1.2% |
8% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
7% |
|
41 |
3% |
7% |
|
42 |
4% |
4% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
36 |
7% |
99.5% |
Median |
37 |
6% |
93% |
|
38 |
51% |
87% |
|
39 |
30% |
35% |
|
40 |
2% |
6% |
|
41 |
3% |
4% |
|
42 |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
43 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
44 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
4% |
100% |
|
34 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
35 |
7% |
95% |
|
36 |
1.1% |
88% |
|
37 |
34% |
87% |
|
38 |
5% |
52% |
Median |
39 |
0.1% |
47% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
47% |
|
41 |
46% |
47% |
|
42 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
43 |
0.6% |
1.1% |
|
44 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0% |
100% |
|
33 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
34 |
8% |
95% |
|
35 |
1.0% |
88% |
|
36 |
4% |
87% |
|
37 |
32% |
82% |
Median |
38 |
3% |
50% |
|
39 |
0.2% |
47% |
|
40 |
46% |
47% |
|
41 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
42 |
0.6% |
1.1% |
|
43 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
31% |
99.8% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
69% |
Median |
32 |
4% |
69% |
|
33 |
53% |
65% |
|
34 |
0.8% |
12% |
|
35 |
0.8% |
11% |
|
36 |
5% |
11% |
|
37 |
1.0% |
6% |
Last Result |
38 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
39 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
40 |
4% |
4% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
32 |
5% |
99.8% |
|
33 |
5% |
95% |
|
34 |
8% |
90% |
Median |
35 |
1.5% |
82% |
|
36 |
77% |
81% |
|
37 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
38 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
39 |
3% |
3% |
|
40 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
31 |
5% |
95% |
|
32 |
4% |
90% |
|
33 |
32% |
86% |
|
34 |
2% |
54% |
Median |
35 |
5% |
52% |
|
36 |
46% |
47% |
|
37 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
39 |
0.7% |
1.1% |
|
40 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
27 |
31% |
99.8% |
|
28 |
4% |
69% |
|
29 |
5% |
65% |
Median |
30 |
2% |
60% |
|
31 |
48% |
58% |
|
32 |
2% |
11% |
Last Result |
33 |
0.2% |
9% |
|
34 |
4% |
8% |
|
35 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
36 |
4% |
4% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
10% |
99.9% |
|
31 |
4% |
90% |
|
32 |
2% |
86% |
|
33 |
32% |
83% |
Median |
34 |
0.4% |
52% |
|
35 |
50% |
51% |
|
36 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
37 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
38 |
0.6% |
1.1% |
|
39 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
5% |
99.8% |
|
27 |
6% |
95% |
|
28 |
3% |
88% |
|
29 |
33% |
85% |
Median |
30 |
3% |
52% |
|
31 |
46% |
50% |
|
32 |
3% |
4% |
|
33 |
0.4% |
1.1% |
|
34 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
35 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
2% |
100% |
|
8 |
2% |
98% |
|
9 |
5% |
97% |
Median |
10 |
43% |
92% |
|
11 |
46% |
49% |
|
12 |
3% |
3% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: I&O Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 8–11 September 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1649
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.78%