Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 22–23 September 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract | 0.0% | 17.9% | 17.1–18.9% | 16.8–19.1% | 16.6–19.4% | 16.2–19.8% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.9% | 15.9% | 15.1–16.8% | 14.9–17.1% | 14.7–17.3% | 14.3–17.7% |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 10.9% | 15.9% | 15.1–16.8% | 14.9–17.1% | 14.7–17.3% | 14.3–17.7% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 10.8% | 11.3% | 10.6–12.1% | 10.4–12.3% | 10.2–12.5% | 9.9–12.9% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1.0% | 9.3% | 8.6–10.0% | 8.5–10.2% | 8.3–10.4% | 8.0–10.7% |
| Democraten 66 | 15.0% | 4.7% | 4.2–5.2% | 4.1–5.3% | 4.0–5.5% | 3.7–5.8% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 9.5% | 4.0% | 3.6–4.5% | 3.4–4.6% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.6–4.5% | 3.4–4.6% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% |
| Forum voor Democratie | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% |
| Socialistische Partij | 6.0% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% |
| Volt Europa | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.1–1.6% | 1.0–1.7% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–2.0% |
| DENK | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.1–1.6% | 1.0–1.7% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–2.0% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.1–1.6% | 1.0–1.7% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–2.0% |
| Belang van Nederland | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–0.9% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.2% |
| 50Plus | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–0.9% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.2% |
| Bij1 | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.3% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract | 0 | 28 | 28 | 28–29 | 28–29 | 26–29 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 34 | 26 | 26 | 24–26 | 24–26 | 24–27 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 17 | 25 | 25 | 25–27 | 24–27 | 24–27 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 17 | 18 | 18 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 15–19 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1 | 14 | 14 | 14–16 | 14–16 | 14–16 |
| Democraten 66 | 24 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6–8 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 15 | 6 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5–7 |
| Forum voor Democratie | 8 | 4 | 4 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 |
| Socialistische Partij | 9 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3–5 |
| Volt Europa | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3–4 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| DENK | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–3 |
| Belang van Nederland | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 50Plus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Bij1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 28 | 90% | 98% | Median |
| 29 | 8% | 8% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 24 | 8% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 92% | |
| 26 | 90% | 91% | Median |
| 27 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 90% | 97% | Median |
| 26 | 0% | 8% | |
| 27 | 8% | 8% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 8% | 99.1% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 91% | Last Result |
| 18 | 90% | 91% | Median |
| 19 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 91% | 99.9% | Median |
| 15 | 2% | 9% | |
| 16 | 8% | 8% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 7 | 98% | 99.4% | Median |
| 8 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 5 | 8% | 99.6% | |
| 6 | 91% | 92% | Median |
| 7 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 98% | 99.4% | Last Result, Median |
| 7 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 90% | 99.9% | Median |
| 5 | 2% | 10% | |
| 6 | 8% | 8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 98% | 99.9% | Median |
| 4 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 98% | 98.9% | Median |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 98.6% | 98.6% | Median |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9% | 100% | |
| 2 | 91% | 91% | Median |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Belang van Nederland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 91% | 91% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 1.5% | 2% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 67 | 71 | 0% | 71 | 71–72 | 71–72 | 69–72 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging | 52 | 65 | 0% | 65 | 65–67 | 65–67 | 63–67 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 | 75 | 58 | 0% | 58 | 58 | 58 | 56–59 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 57 | 0% | 57 | 56–57 | 56–57 | 55–58 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 77 | 55 | 0% | 55 | 52–55 | 52–55 | 52–57 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 74 | 54 | 0% | 54 | 51–54 | 51–54 | 50–56 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 51 | 51 | 0% | 51 | 51 | 51 | 49–51 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 50 | 0% | 50 | 45–50 | 45–50 | 45–51 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 50 | 46 | 0% | 46 | 45–46 | 45–46 | 45–47 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie – Socialistische Partij | 70 | 45 | 0% | 45 | 45–46 | 45–46 | 43–46 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging | 18 | 39 | 0% | 39 | 39–43 | 39–43 | 38–43 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 61 | 41 | 0% | 41 | 41–42 | 41–42 | 38–42 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 78 | 42 | 0% | 42 | 39–42 | 39–42 | 39–45 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 56 | 38 | 0% | 38 | 38–39 | 38–39 | 35–39 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 73 | 39 | 0% | 39 | 36–39 | 36–39 | 36–41 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus | 61 | 37 | 0% | 37 | 36–37 | 36–38 | 36–40 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 60 | 37 | 0% | 37 | 36–37 | 36–37 | 36–40 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus | 58 | 36 | 0% | 36 | 35–36 | 35–36 | 35–38 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 57 | 36 | 0% | 36 | 35–36 | 35–36 | 35–38 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 37 | 34 | 0% | 34 | 34–35 | 34–35 | 31–35 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 32 | 31 | 0% | 31 | 31–32 | 31–32 | 28–32 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 49 | 32 | 0% | 32 | 29–32 | 29–32 | 29–33 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 39 | 13 | 0% | 13 | 12–13 | 12–13 | 11–14 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 68 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 70 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 71 | 90% | 98.5% | Median |
| 72 | 8% | 8% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 65 | 91% | 99.0% | Median |
| 66 | 0.8% | 8% | |
| 67 | 8% | 8% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 57 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 58 | 98% | 98% | Median |
| 59 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 56 | 8% | 98% | |
| 57 | 90% | 91% | Median |
| 58 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 54 | 0.8% | 92% | |
| 55 | 90% | 91% | Median |
| 56 | 0.2% | 1.5% | |
| 57 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 8% | 99.4% | |
| 52 | 0.7% | 92% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 54 | 90% | 91% | Median |
| 55 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 51 | 98% | 98% | Last Result, Median |
| 52 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 8% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 47 | 0.8% | 92% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 50 | 90% | 91% | Median |
| 51 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 8% | 99.7% | |
| 46 | 90% | 92% | Median |
| 47 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie – Socialistische Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 45 | 91% | 98% | Median |
| 46 | 8% | 8% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 39 | 91% | 98.6% | Median |
| 40 | 0.2% | 8% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 8% | |
| 43 | 8% | 8% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 41 | 90% | 98.5% | Median |
| 42 | 9% | 9% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 8% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 92% | |
| 41 | 0.6% | 92% | |
| 42 | 90% | 92% | Median |
| 43 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 37 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 38 | 90% | 98% | Median |
| 39 | 8% | 8% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 92% | |
| 38 | 0.7% | 92% | |
| 39 | 91% | 91% | Median |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 41 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 90% | 92% | Median |
| 38 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 39 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 90% | 92% | Median |
| 38 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 8% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 90% | 92% | Median |
| 37 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 38 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 8% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 90% | 92% | Median |
| 37 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 38 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 33 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 34 | 91% | 98.7% | Median |
| 35 | 8% | 8% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 30 | 1.4% | 99.1% | |
| 31 | 90% | 98% | Median |
| 32 | 8% | 8% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 92% | |
| 31 | 1.0% | 92% | |
| 32 | 90% | 91% | Median |
| 33 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 12 | 8% | 99.5% | |
| 13 | 90% | 91% | Median |
| 14 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Peil.nl
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 22–23 September 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 3000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.68%