Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 22–23 September 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract |
0.0% |
17.9% |
17.1–18.9% |
16.8–19.1% |
16.6–19.4% |
16.2–19.8% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie |
21.9% |
15.9% |
15.1–16.8% |
14.9–17.1% |
14.7–17.3% |
14.3–17.7% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid |
10.9% |
15.9% |
15.1–16.8% |
14.9–17.1% |
14.7–17.3% |
14.3–17.7% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid |
10.8% |
11.3% |
10.6–12.1% |
10.4–12.3% |
10.2–12.5% |
9.9–12.9% |
BoerBurgerBeweging |
1.0% |
9.3% |
8.6–10.0% |
8.5–10.2% |
8.3–10.4% |
8.0–10.7% |
Democraten 66 |
15.0% |
4.7% |
4.2–5.2% |
4.1–5.3% |
4.0–5.5% |
3.7–5.8% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
9.5% |
4.0% |
3.6–4.5% |
3.4–4.6% |
3.4–4.8% |
3.2–5.0% |
Partij voor de Dieren |
3.8% |
4.0% |
3.6–4.5% |
3.4–4.6% |
3.4–4.8% |
3.2–5.0% |
Forum voor Democratie |
5.0% |
3.3% |
2.9–3.8% |
2.8–3.9% |
2.7–4.0% |
2.6–4.3% |
ChristenUnie |
3.4% |
2.7% |
2.3–3.1% |
2.2–3.2% |
2.1–3.3% |
2.0–3.5% |
Socialistische Partij |
6.0% |
2.7% |
2.3–3.1% |
2.2–3.2% |
2.1–3.3% |
2.0–3.5% |
Volt Europa |
2.4% |
2.7% |
2.3–3.1% |
2.2–3.2% |
2.1–3.3% |
2.0–3.5% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 |
2.4% |
1.3% |
1.1–1.6% |
1.0–1.7% |
1.0–1.8% |
0.9–2.0% |
DENK |
2.0% |
1.3% |
1.1–1.6% |
1.0–1.7% |
1.0–1.8% |
0.9–2.0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
2.1% |
1.3% |
1.1–1.6% |
1.0–1.7% |
1.0–1.8% |
0.9–2.0% |
Belang van Nederland |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.5–0.9% |
0.5–1.0% |
0.4–1.0% |
0.4–1.2% |
50Plus |
1.0% |
0.7% |
0.5–0.9% |
0.5–1.0% |
0.4–1.0% |
0.4–1.2% |
Bij1 |
0.8% |
0.2% |
0.1–0.3% |
0.1–0.4% |
0.1–0.4% |
0.0–0.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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
Confidence Intervals
Nieuw Sociaal Contract
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
1.3% |
99.8% |
|
27 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
28 |
90% |
98% |
Median |
29 |
8% |
8% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
24 |
8% |
99.7% |
|
25 |
0.7% |
92% |
|
26 |
90% |
91% |
Median |
27 |
1.2% |
1.4% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
24 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
25 |
90% |
97% |
Median |
26 |
0% |
8% |
|
27 |
8% |
8% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
8% |
99.1% |
|
17 |
0.3% |
91% |
Last Result |
18 |
90% |
91% |
Median |
19 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
91% |
99.9% |
Median |
15 |
2% |
9% |
|
16 |
8% |
8% |
|
17 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
6 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
7 |
98% |
99.4% |
Median |
8 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
5 |
8% |
99.6% |
|
6 |
91% |
92% |
Median |
7 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
98% |
99.4% |
Last Result, Median |
7 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
90% |
99.9% |
Median |
5 |
2% |
10% |
|
6 |
8% |
8% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
3 |
98% |
99.9% |
Median |
4 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
3 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
4 |
98% |
98.9% |
Median |
5 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
1.4% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
98.6% |
98.6% |
Median |
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
98% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
2% |
2% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
9% |
100% |
|
2 |
91% |
91% |
Median |
3 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
98% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
3 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Belang van Nederland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
9% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
91% |
91% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
1.5% |
2% |
Last Result |
2 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
67 |
71 |
0% |
71 |
71–72 |
71–72 |
69–72 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging |
52 |
65 |
0% |
65 |
65–67 |
65–67 |
63–67 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 |
75 |
58 |
0% |
58 |
58 |
58 |
56–59 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
57 |
0% |
57 |
56–57 |
56–57 |
55–58 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
77 |
55 |
0% |
55 |
52–55 |
52–55 |
52–57 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
74 |
54 |
0% |
54 |
51–54 |
51–54 |
50–56 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie |
51 |
51 |
0% |
51 |
51 |
51 |
49–51 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
50 |
0% |
50 |
45–50 |
45–50 |
45–51 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
50 |
46 |
0% |
46 |
45–46 |
45–46 |
45–47 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie – Socialistische Partij |
70 |
45 |
0% |
45 |
45–46 |
45–46 |
43–46 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging |
18 |
39 |
0% |
39 |
39–43 |
39–43 |
38–43 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
61 |
41 |
0% |
41 |
41–42 |
41–42 |
38–42 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
78 |
42 |
0% |
42 |
39–42 |
39–42 |
39–45 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
56 |
38 |
0% |
38 |
38–39 |
38–39 |
35–39 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
73 |
39 |
0% |
39 |
36–39 |
36–39 |
36–41 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus |
61 |
37 |
0% |
37 |
36–37 |
36–38 |
36–40 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
60 |
37 |
0% |
37 |
36–37 |
36–37 |
36–40 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus |
58 |
36 |
0% |
36 |
35–36 |
35–36 |
35–38 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
57 |
36 |
0% |
36 |
35–36 |
35–36 |
35–38 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
37 |
34 |
0% |
34 |
34–35 |
34–35 |
31–35 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
32 |
31 |
0% |
31 |
31–32 |
31–32 |
28–32 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
49 |
32 |
0% |
32 |
29–32 |
29–32 |
29–33 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
39 |
13 |
0% |
13 |
12–13 |
12–13 |
11–14 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
67 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
68 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
69 |
0.8% |
99.8% |
|
70 |
0.5% |
99.0% |
|
71 |
90% |
98.5% |
Median |
72 |
8% |
8% |
|
73 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
74 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
100% |
|
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
0% |
100% |
|
59 |
0% |
100% |
|
60 |
0% |
100% |
|
61 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
62 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
63 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
64 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
65 |
91% |
99.0% |
Median |
66 |
0.8% |
8% |
|
67 |
8% |
8% |
|
68 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
54 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
56 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
57 |
1.1% |
99.2% |
|
58 |
98% |
98% |
Median |
59 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
60 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
53 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
54 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
55 |
1.0% |
99.5% |
|
56 |
8% |
98% |
|
57 |
90% |
91% |
Median |
58 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
59 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
51 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
52 |
8% |
99.9% |
|
53 |
0.4% |
92% |
|
54 |
0.8% |
92% |
|
55 |
90% |
91% |
Median |
56 |
0.2% |
1.5% |
|
57 |
0.9% |
1.3% |
|
58 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
60 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
49 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
50 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
51 |
8% |
99.4% |
|
52 |
0.7% |
92% |
|
53 |
0.1% |
91% |
|
54 |
90% |
91% |
Median |
55 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
56 |
0.5% |
0.9% |
|
57 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
46 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
48 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
49 |
0.7% |
99.7% |
|
50 |
0.6% |
99.0% |
|
51 |
98% |
98% |
Last Result, Median |
52 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
53 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
45 |
8% |
100% |
|
46 |
0.5% |
92% |
|
47 |
0.8% |
92% |
|
48 |
0.1% |
91% |
|
49 |
0.1% |
91% |
|
50 |
90% |
91% |
Median |
51 |
0.5% |
0.9% |
|
52 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
53 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
43 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
44 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
45 |
8% |
99.7% |
|
46 |
90% |
92% |
Median |
47 |
0.9% |
1.4% |
|
48 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
49 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
50 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie – Socialistische Partij

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
40 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
41 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
42 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
43 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
44 |
0.6% |
99.0% |
|
45 |
91% |
98% |
Median |
46 |
8% |
8% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
48 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0% |
100% |
|
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
0% |
100% |
|
35 |
0% |
100% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
38 |
1.1% |
99.7% |
|
39 |
91% |
98.6% |
Median |
40 |
0.2% |
8% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
8% |
|
42 |
0.2% |
8% |
|
43 |
8% |
8% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
37 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
38 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
39 |
0.5% |
99.5% |
|
40 |
0.5% |
99.0% |
|
41 |
90% |
98.5% |
Median |
42 |
9% |
9% |
|
43 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
39 |
8% |
100% |
|
40 |
0.3% |
92% |
|
41 |
0.6% |
92% |
|
42 |
90% |
92% |
Median |
43 |
0.5% |
1.1% |
|
44 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
45 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
36 |
0.4% |
99.4% |
|
37 |
0.8% |
99.0% |
|
38 |
90% |
98% |
Median |
39 |
8% |
8% |
|
40 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
36 |
8% |
99.9% |
|
37 |
0.2% |
92% |
|
38 |
0.7% |
92% |
|
39 |
91% |
91% |
Median |
40 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
41 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
42 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
43 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
36 |
8% |
99.9% |
|
37 |
90% |
92% |
Median |
38 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
39 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
40 |
0.8% |
1.3% |
|
41 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
42 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
43 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
36 |
8% |
99.9% |
|
37 |
90% |
92% |
Median |
38 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
39 |
0.9% |
1.4% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
41 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
33 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
35 |
8% |
99.8% |
|
36 |
90% |
92% |
Median |
37 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
38 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
39 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
40 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
41 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
33 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
35 |
8% |
99.8% |
|
36 |
90% |
92% |
Median |
37 |
0.4% |
1.4% |
|
38 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
40 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
33 |
0.7% |
99.4% |
|
34 |
91% |
98.7% |
Median |
35 |
8% |
8% |
|
36 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
37 |
0% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
38 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
|
30 |
1.4% |
99.1% |
|
31 |
90% |
98% |
Median |
32 |
8% |
8% |
Last Result |
33 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
29 |
8% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
0.3% |
92% |
|
31 |
1.0% |
92% |
|
32 |
90% |
91% |
Median |
33 |
0.6% |
1.0% |
|
34 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
35 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
12 |
8% |
99.5% |
|
13 |
90% |
91% |
Median |
14 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Peil.nl
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 22–23 September 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 3000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.68%