Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 22–24 September 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie |
21.9% |
17.2% |
15.7–18.8% |
15.3–19.2% |
15.0–19.6% |
14.3–20.4% |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract |
0.0% |
15.8% |
14.4–17.3% |
14.0–17.8% |
13.7–18.2% |
13.0–18.9% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid |
10.9% |
13.3% |
12.0–14.8% |
11.7–15.2% |
11.4–15.6% |
10.8–16.3% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid |
10.8% |
11.4% |
10.2–12.7% |
9.8–13.1% |
9.6–13.5% |
9.0–14.2% |
BoerBurgerBeweging |
1.0% |
8.2% |
7.2–9.4% |
6.9–9.8% |
6.7–10.1% |
6.2–10.7% |
Democraten 66 |
15.0% |
6.1% |
5.2–7.1% |
5.0–7.5% |
4.8–7.7% |
4.4–8.3% |
Partij voor de Dieren |
3.8% |
4.9% |
4.1–5.9% |
3.9–6.2% |
3.7–6.4% |
3.4–6.9% |
ChristenUnie |
3.4% |
3.4% |
2.8–4.3% |
2.6–4.5% |
2.5–4.7% |
2.2–5.2% |
Socialistische Partij |
6.0% |
3.2% |
2.6–4.1% |
2.5–4.3% |
2.3–4.5% |
2.0–5.0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
9.5% |
2.9% |
2.4–3.7% |
2.2–4.0% |
2.1–4.2% |
1.8–4.6% |
Forum voor Democratie |
5.0% |
2.4% |
1.8–3.1% |
1.7–3.3% |
1.6–3.5% |
1.4–3.9% |
DENK |
2.0% |
2.4% |
1.8–3.1% |
1.7–3.3% |
1.6–3.5% |
1.4–3.9% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 |
2.4% |
2.2% |
1.7–2.9% |
1.5–3.1% |
1.4–3.2% |
1.2–3.6% |
Volt Europa |
2.4% |
2.1% |
1.6–2.8% |
1.5–3.0% |
1.3–3.1% |
1.2–3.5% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
2.1% |
2.1% |
1.6–2.8% |
1.5–3.0% |
1.3–3.1% |
1.2–3.5% |
Bij1 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–1.8% |
0.4–2.1% |
50Plus |
1.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.2–1.1% |
0.1–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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Confidence Intervals
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
1.4% |
99.8% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
24 |
5% |
98% |
|
25 |
3% |
93% |
|
26 |
59% |
90% |
Median |
27 |
2% |
31% |
|
28 |
0.6% |
30% |
|
29 |
2% |
29% |
|
30 |
0.3% |
27% |
|
31 |
26% |
27% |
|
32 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
0.8% |
99.6% |
|
22 |
5% |
98.8% |
|
23 |
62% |
93% |
Median |
24 |
0.6% |
32% |
|
25 |
2% |
31% |
|
26 |
1.2% |
30% |
|
27 |
0.5% |
28% |
|
28 |
0.4% |
28% |
|
29 |
26% |
27% |
|
30 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
|
31 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
18 |
0.5% |
99.3% |
|
19 |
28% |
98.8% |
|
20 |
65% |
71% |
Median |
21 |
4% |
6% |
|
22 |
2% |
2% |
|
23 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
14 |
1.1% |
99.5% |
|
15 |
2% |
98% |
|
16 |
27% |
96% |
|
17 |
64% |
70% |
Last Result, Median |
18 |
5% |
6% |
|
19 |
0.5% |
1.0% |
|
20 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
2% |
100% |
|
10 |
2% |
98% |
|
11 |
32% |
96% |
|
12 |
61% |
64% |
Median |
13 |
1.5% |
3% |
|
14 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
15 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
7 |
1.4% |
99.8% |
|
8 |
1.5% |
98% |
|
9 |
3% |
97% |
|
10 |
86% |
94% |
Median |
11 |
6% |
8% |
|
12 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
13 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
3% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
7 |
33% |
97% |
|
8 |
62% |
64% |
Median |
9 |
2% |
2% |
|
10 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
3 |
27% |
99.9% |
|
4 |
2% |
72% |
|
5 |
8% |
71% |
Last Result |
6 |
60% |
62% |
Median |
7 |
2% |
2% |
|
8 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
28% |
100% |
|
4 |
5% |
72% |
|
5 |
2% |
67% |
|
6 |
59% |
65% |
Median |
7 |
6% |
6% |
|
8 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
3 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
4 |
28% |
98% |
|
5 |
69% |
70% |
Median |
6 |
0.5% |
0.9% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
8 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
2 |
26% |
99.5% |
|
3 |
8% |
73% |
|
4 |
62% |
65% |
Median |
5 |
3% |
3% |
|
6 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
2 |
1.3% |
99.8% |
|
3 |
35% |
98% |
Last Result |
4 |
62% |
63% |
Median |
5 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
6 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
2 |
28% |
99.5% |
|
3 |
68% |
71% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
5 |
2% |
2% |
|
6 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
2 |
62% |
99.3% |
Median |
3 |
34% |
38% |
Last Result |
4 |
2% |
3% |
|
5 |
0.9% |
1.3% |
|
6 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
2 |
62% |
99.8% |
Median |
3 |
4% |
38% |
Last Result |
4 |
29% |
34% |
|
5 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
6 |
5% |
5% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
1 |
97% |
99.6% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
3% |
3% |
|
3 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
96% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
4% |
4% |
Last Result |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
67 |
63 |
0% |
62–65 |
60–65 |
60–65 |
58–69 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging |
52 |
58 |
0% |
57–61 |
55–61 |
55–61 |
54–64 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 |
75 |
56 |
0% |
55–60 |
55–60 |
53–60 |
50–62 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
77 |
54 |
0% |
54–57 |
54–57 |
51–57 |
49–60 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
74 |
52 |
0% |
51–53 |
49–53 |
48–55 |
45–56 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
51 |
0% |
51–54 |
49–54 |
49–54 |
46–57 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
48 |
0% |
48–51 |
46–51 |
45–51 |
42–53 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid |
51 |
46 |
0% |
46–50 |
44–50 |
44–50 |
42–52 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
78 |
47 |
0% |
45–48 |
44–48 |
42–49 |
40–52 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
70 |
47 |
0% |
39–47 |
39–48 |
39–48 |
39–48 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
50 |
43 |
0% |
42–46 |
40–46 |
40–46 |
37–49 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
73 |
41 |
0% |
40–45 |
39–45 |
38–45 |
35–45 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
61 |
41 |
0% |
36–41 |
36–41 |
36–42 |
35–44 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus |
61 |
37 |
0% |
37–41 |
37–41 |
35–41 |
33–45 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
60 |
37 |
0% |
37–41 |
37–41 |
35–41 |
33–45 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus |
58 |
35 |
0% |
35–37 |
32–37 |
32–37 |
30–41 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
56 |
35 |
0% |
33–35 |
33–36 |
32–37 |
30–37 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
57 |
35 |
0% |
35–37 |
32–37 |
32–37 |
30–41 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
49 |
31 |
0% |
30–35 |
29–35 |
28–35 |
27–37 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging |
18 |
32 |
0% |
30–32 |
30–32 |
30–32 |
29–36 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
37 |
31 |
0% |
26–31 |
26–31 |
26–32 |
26–33 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
32 |
25 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–25 |
23–26 |
21–27 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
39 |
15 |
0% |
14–15 |
14–16 |
13–16 |
11–18 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
58 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
59 |
0.9% |
99.1% |
|
60 |
6% |
98% |
|
61 |
2% |
92% |
|
62 |
0.8% |
90% |
|
63 |
60% |
90% |
Median |
64 |
0.9% |
29% |
|
65 |
26% |
28% |
|
66 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
67 |
0.1% |
2% |
Last Result |
68 |
0.4% |
1.4% |
|
69 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
53 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
54 |
1.0% |
99.7% |
|
55 |
6% |
98.7% |
|
56 |
2% |
93% |
|
57 |
1.2% |
91% |
|
58 |
59% |
90% |
Median |
59 |
2% |
31% |
|
60 |
0.3% |
29% |
|
61 |
27% |
28% |
|
62 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
63 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
64 |
0.9% |
1.3% |
|
65 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
66 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
48 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
49 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
50 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
51 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
52 |
1.3% |
99.0% |
|
53 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
54 |
0.9% |
97% |
|
55 |
7% |
97% |
|
56 |
59% |
90% |
Median |
57 |
0.7% |
31% |
|
58 |
0.6% |
30% |
|
59 |
2% |
30% |
|
60 |
26% |
28% |
|
61 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
62 |
2% |
2% |
|
63 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
47 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
48 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
49 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
50 |
0.8% |
99.3% |
|
51 |
1.2% |
98.5% |
|
52 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
53 |
1.5% |
97% |
|
54 |
59% |
95% |
Median |
55 |
5% |
36% |
|
56 |
2% |
31% |
|
57 |
27% |
29% |
|
58 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
59 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
60 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
61 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
45 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
46 |
0.6% |
99.4% |
|
47 |
0.5% |
98.8% |
|
48 |
1.3% |
98% |
|
49 |
5% |
97% |
|
50 |
0.5% |
92% |
|
51 |
1.5% |
91% |
|
52 |
59% |
90% |
Median |
53 |
27% |
31% |
|
54 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
55 |
2% |
3% |
|
56 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
43 |
0% |
100% |
|
44 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
45 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
46 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
47 |
0.8% |
99.5% |
|
48 |
0.6% |
98.7% |
|
49 |
7% |
98% |
|
50 |
0.6% |
91% |
|
51 |
61% |
91% |
Median |
52 |
0.2% |
30% |
|
53 |
0.2% |
30% |
|
54 |
28% |
30% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
56 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
57 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
42 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
43 |
0.8% |
99.3% |
|
44 |
1.0% |
98.6% |
|
45 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
46 |
6% |
97% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
91% |
|
48 |
60% |
90% |
Median |
49 |
0.4% |
30% |
|
50 |
0.7% |
30% |
|
51 |
28% |
29% |
|
52 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
53 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
54 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
39 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
40 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
41 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
42 |
0.5% |
99.5% |
|
43 |
0.5% |
99.0% |
|
44 |
7% |
98% |
|
45 |
0.4% |
92% |
|
46 |
61% |
91% |
Median |
47 |
0.6% |
30% |
|
48 |
0.2% |
30% |
|
49 |
0.7% |
30% |
|
50 |
28% |
29% |
|
51 |
0.3% |
1.4% |
Last Result |
52 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
53 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
37 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
38 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
39 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
40 |
0.9% |
99.7% |
|
41 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
|
42 |
2% |
98% |
|
43 |
1.1% |
97% |
|
44 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
45 |
6% |
95% |
|
46 |
0.6% |
89% |
|
47 |
59% |
89% |
Median |
48 |
26% |
30% |
|
49 |
1.2% |
4% |
|
50 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
51 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
52 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
53 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
37 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
38 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
39 |
26% |
99.9% |
|
40 |
0.4% |
73% |
|
41 |
1.2% |
73% |
|
42 |
2% |
72% |
|
43 |
0.4% |
70% |
|
44 |
2% |
70% |
|
45 |
0.9% |
68% |
|
46 |
0.3% |
67% |
|
47 |
60% |
67% |
Median |
48 |
6% |
6% |
|
49 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
50 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
37 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
39 |
1.1% |
99.1% |
|
40 |
7% |
98% |
|
41 |
0.4% |
91% |
|
42 |
2% |
91% |
|
43 |
59% |
89% |
Median |
44 |
0.9% |
30% |
|
45 |
1.2% |
29% |
|
46 |
26% |
28% |
|
47 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
|
48 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
49 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
50 |
0% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
51 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
35 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
36 |
0.5% |
98.8% |
|
37 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
38 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
39 |
2% |
97% |
|
40 |
5% |
95% |
|
41 |
60% |
90% |
Median |
42 |
0.4% |
30% |
|
43 |
0.3% |
30% |
|
44 |
1.0% |
29% |
|
45 |
28% |
28% |
|
46 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
48 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
34 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
35 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
36 |
27% |
99.5% |
|
37 |
1.1% |
72% |
|
38 |
2% |
71% |
|
39 |
0.6% |
69% |
|
40 |
2% |
69% |
|
41 |
64% |
67% |
Median |
42 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
43 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
44 |
2% |
2% |
|
45 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
32 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
33 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
34 |
0.6% |
98.8% |
|
35 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
36 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
37 |
59% |
97% |
Median |
38 |
5% |
38% |
|
39 |
4% |
32% |
|
40 |
1.2% |
29% |
|
41 |
26% |
28% |
|
42 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
43 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
45 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
33 |
1.0% |
99.6% |
|
34 |
0.5% |
98.7% |
|
35 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
36 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
37 |
59% |
96% |
Median |
38 |
7% |
37% |
|
39 |
3% |
30% |
|
40 |
0.3% |
28% |
|
41 |
26% |
28% |
|
42 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
43 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
45 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
30 |
1.2% |
99.8% |
|
31 |
0.6% |
98.5% |
|
32 |
5% |
98% |
|
33 |
1.2% |
92% |
|
34 |
0.5% |
91% |
|
35 |
59% |
91% |
Median |
36 |
2% |
32% |
|
37 |
28% |
30% |
|
38 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
39 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
40 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
41 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
31 |
0.7% |
99.5% |
|
32 |
2% |
98.8% |
|
33 |
26% |
97% |
|
34 |
0.4% |
70% |
|
35 |
61% |
70% |
Median |
36 |
6% |
9% |
|
37 |
2% |
3% |
|
38 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
39 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
30 |
1.2% |
99.7% |
|
31 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
32 |
5% |
98% |
|
33 |
1.1% |
92% |
|
34 |
0.8% |
91% |
|
35 |
60% |
90% |
Median |
36 |
0.3% |
30% |
|
37 |
28% |
30% |
|
38 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
39 |
0% |
1.2% |
|
40 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
41 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
1.2% |
99.6% |
|
28 |
1.5% |
98% |
|
29 |
5% |
97% |
|
30 |
2% |
92% |
|
31 |
59% |
90% |
Median |
32 |
1.4% |
31% |
|
33 |
2% |
29% |
|
34 |
0.4% |
28% |
|
35 |
26% |
27% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
37 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
30 |
28% |
99.4% |
|
31 |
7% |
71% |
|
32 |
62% |
64% |
Median |
33 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
34 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
35 |
0.7% |
1.2% |
|
36 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
37 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
38 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
27% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
0.8% |
73% |
|
28 |
0.7% |
72% |
|
29 |
2% |
72% |
|
30 |
7% |
70% |
|
31 |
60% |
63% |
Median |
32 |
3% |
3% |
|
33 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
0.7% |
99.5% |
|
23 |
27% |
98.7% |
|
24 |
2% |
72% |
|
25 |
67% |
71% |
Median |
26 |
2% |
4% |
|
27 |
2% |
2% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
11 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
12 |
1.1% |
99.2% |
|
13 |
2% |
98% |
|
14 |
29% |
96% |
|
15 |
59% |
67% |
Median |
16 |
7% |
8% |
|
17 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
|
18 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): EenVandaag
- Fieldwork period: 22–24 September 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1020
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.72%