Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 22–25 September 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid |
10.9% |
18.0% |
16.8–19.4% |
16.4–19.8% |
16.1–20.1% |
15.5–20.8% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie |
21.9% |
17.3% |
16.0–18.6% |
15.7–19.0% |
15.4–19.3% |
14.8–20.0% |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract |
0.0% |
16.0% |
14.8–17.3% |
14.4–17.7% |
14.2–18.0% |
13.6–18.6% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid |
10.8% |
11.5% |
10.4–12.6% |
10.1–12.9% |
9.9–13.2% |
9.4–13.8% |
BoerBurgerBeweging |
1.0% |
7.8% |
6.9–8.8% |
6.7–9.1% |
6.5–9.3% |
6.1–9.8% |
Partij voor de Dieren |
3.8% |
4.0% |
3.4–4.7% |
3.2–4.9% |
3.1–5.1% |
2.8–5.5% |
Democraten 66 |
15.0% |
3.7% |
3.1–4.4% |
2.9–4.6% |
2.8–4.8% |
2.6–5.2% |
Socialistische Partij |
6.0% |
3.6% |
3.0–4.3% |
2.9–4.5% |
2.7–4.7% |
2.5–5.1% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
9.5% |
3.4% |
2.9–4.1% |
2.7–4.3% |
2.6–4.5% |
2.3–4.8% |
Forum voor Democratie |
5.0% |
3.0% |
2.5–3.6% |
2.3–3.8% |
2.2–4.0% |
2.0–4.3% |
ChristenUnie |
3.4% |
2.6% |
2.1–3.2% |
2.0–3.4% |
1.9–3.6% |
1.7–3.9% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
2.1% |
2.6% |
2.1–3.2% |
2.0–3.4% |
1.9–3.6% |
1.7–3.9% |
Volt Europa |
2.4% |
2.3% |
1.8–2.9% |
1.7–3.0% |
1.6–3.2% |
1.4–3.5% |
DENK |
2.0% |
1.7% |
1.3–2.2% |
1.2–2.4% |
1.1–2.5% |
1.0–2.8% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 |
2.4% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.4% |
0.6–1.6% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–1.9% |
Belang van Nederland |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.4–0.9% |
0.3–1.0% |
0.3–1.1% |
0.2–1.3% |
50Plus |
1.0% |
0.4% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Bij1 |
0.8% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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Confidence Intervals
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
25 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
4% |
98% |
|
27 |
75% |
93% |
Median |
28 |
0.7% |
18% |
|
29 |
11% |
18% |
|
30 |
4% |
7% |
|
31 |
3% |
3% |
|
32 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
33 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
22 |
3% |
99.3% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
24 |
4% |
96% |
|
25 |
12% |
93% |
|
26 |
0.7% |
81% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
80% |
|
28 |
72% |
80% |
Median |
29 |
7% |
7% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
31 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
32 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
75% |
99.9% |
Median |
23 |
5% |
25% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
20% |
|
25 |
4% |
19% |
|
26 |
3% |
15% |
|
27 |
12% |
13% |
|
28 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
16 |
6% |
99.5% |
|
17 |
7% |
94% |
Last Result |
18 |
80% |
86% |
Median |
19 |
5% |
6% |
|
20 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
11 |
75% |
99.8% |
Median |
12 |
16% |
25% |
|
13 |
6% |
9% |
|
14 |
3% |
3% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
11% |
100% |
|
5 |
2% |
89% |
|
6 |
6% |
87% |
Last Result |
7 |
77% |
81% |
Median |
8 |
4% |
4% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
3% |
100% |
|
4 |
20% |
97% |
|
5 |
73% |
77% |
Median |
6 |
4% |
5% |
|
7 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
8 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
4 |
1.4% |
99.7% |
|
5 |
24% |
98% |
|
6 |
73% |
75% |
Median |
7 |
0.3% |
1.4% |
|
8 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
4 |
77% |
99.8% |
Median |
5 |
5% |
22% |
|
6 |
17% |
17% |
|
7 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
4 |
87% |
99.7% |
Median |
5 |
9% |
12% |
|
6 |
0.9% |
3% |
|
7 |
2% |
2% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
3 |
8% |
99.9% |
|
4 |
87% |
92% |
Median |
5 |
5% |
5% |
Last Result |
6 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
10% |
100% |
|
3 |
14% |
90% |
Last Result |
4 |
75% |
76% |
Median |
5 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
3 |
19% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
4 |
1.3% |
81% |
|
5 |
80% |
80% |
Median |
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
2 |
76% |
99.1% |
Median |
3 |
18% |
23% |
Last Result |
4 |
5% |
5% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
25% |
99.9% |
|
2 |
5% |
75% |
|
3 |
70% |
70% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Belang van Nederland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
86% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
12% |
14% |
|
2 |
2% |
2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
92% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
8% |
8% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98.9% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
67 |
70 |
0.1% |
70–72 |
70–72 |
67–73 |
67–73 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging |
52 |
66 |
0% |
66–67 |
65–68 |
63–68 |
61–68 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 |
75 |
60 |
0% |
58–60 |
57–60 |
57–60 |
56–62 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
59 |
0% |
59–60 |
58–60 |
56–60 |
54–62 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
77 |
58 |
0% |
55–58 |
54–59 |
52–60 |
52–62 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
74 |
54 |
0% |
52–54 |
50–56 |
49–57 |
49–58 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie |
51 |
55 |
0% |
54–55 |
53–56 |
50–56 |
50–56 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
50 |
0% |
47–50 |
45–52 |
44–52 |
44–54 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
70 |
46 |
0% |
44–48 |
44–49 |
44–50 |
44–53 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
50 |
43 |
0% |
43–45 |
41–45 |
41–47 |
38–47 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging |
18 |
38 |
0% |
38–41 |
38–41 |
38–45 |
38–45 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
61 |
40 |
0% |
39–43 |
39–44 |
38–45 |
38–45 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus |
61 |
40 |
0% |
37–41 |
37–41 |
35–44 |
35–44 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
60 |
40 |
0% |
37–40 |
37–41 |
35–44 |
35–44 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
78 |
41 |
0% |
39–41 |
39–41 |
35–42 |
35–44 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
56 |
36 |
0% |
35–39 |
35–40 |
35–41 |
35–42 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
37 |
35 |
0% |
35–39 |
35–39 |
34–41 |
33–41 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus |
58 |
36 |
0% |
35–37 |
35–38 |
32–41 |
32–41 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
57 |
36 |
0% |
35–37 |
34–37 |
32–41 |
32–41 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
73 |
37 |
0% |
35–37 |
34–37 |
32–38 |
32–40 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
32 |
31 |
0% |
31–35 |
31–36 |
31–36 |
29–36 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
49 |
32 |
0% |
31–33 |
29–33 |
27–34 |
27–34 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
39 |
9 |
0% |
9–10 |
8–10 |
8–10 |
8–13 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
65 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
66 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
67 |
3% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
68 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
69 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
70 |
70% |
97% |
Median |
71 |
4% |
26% |
|
72 |
18% |
23% |
|
73 |
4% |
4% |
|
74 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
75 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
76 |
0% |
0.1% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
100% |
|
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
0% |
100% |
|
59 |
0% |
100% |
|
60 |
0% |
100% |
|
61 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
62 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
63 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
64 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
65 |
4% |
97% |
|
66 |
80% |
93% |
Median |
67 |
6% |
13% |
|
68 |
6% |
6% |
|
69 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
70 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
71 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
55 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
56 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
57 |
4% |
98% |
|
58 |
17% |
94% |
|
59 |
1.3% |
78% |
|
60 |
75% |
76% |
Median |
61 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
62 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
63 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
64 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
65 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
66 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
53 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
54 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
56 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
57 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
58 |
3% |
97% |
|
59 |
70% |
94% |
Median |
60 |
23% |
24% |
|
61 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
62 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
63 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
64 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
65 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
3% |
100% |
|
53 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
54 |
3% |
97% |
|
55 |
14% |
94% |
|
56 |
0.1% |
80% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
80% |
|
58 |
71% |
80% |
Median |
59 |
5% |
9% |
|
60 |
3% |
4% |
|
61 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
62 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
48 |
0% |
100% |
|
49 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
50 |
3% |
97% |
|
51 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
52 |
4% |
94% |
|
53 |
10% |
90% |
|
54 |
71% |
80% |
Median |
55 |
0.3% |
9% |
|
56 |
5% |
9% |
|
57 |
3% |
3% |
|
58 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
49 |
0% |
100% |
|
50 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
51 |
0% |
97% |
Last Result |
52 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
53 |
3% |
97% |
|
54 |
17% |
94% |
|
55 |
72% |
77% |
Median |
56 |
5% |
6% |
|
57 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
58 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
59 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
60 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
43 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
44 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
45 |
2% |
96% |
|
46 |
0.5% |
94% |
|
47 |
4% |
94% |
|
48 |
0.2% |
90% |
|
49 |
10% |
90% |
|
50 |
73% |
80% |
Median |
51 |
0.1% |
7% |
|
52 |
6% |
7% |
|
53 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
54 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
42 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
43 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
44 |
10% |
99.7% |
|
45 |
0.9% |
90% |
|
46 |
71% |
89% |
Median |
47 |
0.6% |
18% |
|
48 |
10% |
18% |
|
49 |
3% |
8% |
|
50 |
4% |
5% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
52 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
53 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
54 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
38 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
39 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
41 |
7% |
99.1% |
|
42 |
2% |
92% |
|
43 |
80% |
90% |
Median |
44 |
0.2% |
10% |
|
45 |
5% |
10% |
|
46 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
47 |
4% |
4% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0% |
100% |
|
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
35 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
38 |
73% |
99.6% |
Median |
39 |
9% |
27% |
|
40 |
1.1% |
18% |
|
41 |
14% |
17% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
43 |
0% |
3% |
|
44 |
0% |
3% |
|
45 |
3% |
3% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
37 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
38 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
39 |
7% |
97% |
|
40 |
71% |
90% |
Median |
41 |
1.1% |
19% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
18% |
|
43 |
10% |
18% |
|
44 |
3% |
8% |
|
45 |
5% |
5% |
|
46 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
47 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
48 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
3% |
100% |
|
36 |
0% |
97% |
|
37 |
11% |
97% |
|
38 |
4% |
86% |
|
39 |
2% |
82% |
|
40 |
70% |
80% |
Median |
41 |
5% |
10% |
|
42 |
1.1% |
5% |
|
43 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
44 |
3% |
3% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
3% |
100% |
|
36 |
0% |
97% |
|
37 |
11% |
97% |
|
38 |
6% |
86% |
|
39 |
0.2% |
80% |
|
40 |
75% |
80% |
Median |
41 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
42 |
2% |
5% |
|
43 |
0% |
3% |
|
44 |
3% |
3% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
3% |
100% |
|
36 |
0% |
97% |
|
37 |
1.2% |
97% |
|
38 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
39 |
16% |
96% |
|
40 |
3% |
80% |
|
41 |
75% |
78% |
Median |
42 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
43 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
44 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
45 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
46 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
47 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
34 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
35 |
10% |
99.5% |
|
36 |
70% |
89% |
Median |
37 |
0.9% |
19% |
|
38 |
0.3% |
18% |
|
39 |
10% |
18% |
|
40 |
4% |
8% |
|
41 |
3% |
4% |
|
42 |
0.8% |
1.1% |
|
43 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
32 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
33 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
34 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
35 |
77% |
97% |
Median |
36 |
0.3% |
19% |
|
37 |
1.2% |
19% |
Last Result |
38 |
1.0% |
18% |
|
39 |
13% |
17% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
41 |
4% |
4% |
|
42 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
3% |
100% |
|
33 |
0.9% |
97% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
35 |
16% |
96% |
|
36 |
70% |
80% |
Median |
37 |
0.3% |
10% |
|
38 |
6% |
10% |
|
39 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
40 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
41 |
2% |
3% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
3% |
100% |
|
33 |
0.9% |
97% |
|
34 |
2% |
96% |
|
35 |
14% |
94% |
|
36 |
70% |
80% |
Median |
37 |
5% |
10% |
|
38 |
2% |
5% |
|
39 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
40 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
41 |
2% |
3% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
3% |
100% |
|
33 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
34 |
5% |
97% |
|
35 |
12% |
92% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
80% |
|
37 |
77% |
80% |
Median |
38 |
0.9% |
3% |
|
39 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
40 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
42 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
29 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
30 |
0% |
98% |
|
31 |
77% |
98% |
Median |
32 |
3% |
21% |
Last Result |
33 |
0.4% |
18% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
18% |
|
35 |
11% |
18% |
|
36 |
7% |
7% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
38 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
3% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
29 |
2% |
96% |
|
30 |
4% |
94% |
|
31 |
10% |
90% |
|
32 |
70% |
80% |
Median |
33 |
5% |
10% |
|
34 |
4% |
5% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
36 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
8 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
74% |
95% |
Median |
10 |
19% |
21% |
|
11 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
13 |
0.9% |
1.1% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: I&O Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 22–25 September 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1414
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.99%