Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 22–25 September 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 10.9% | 18.0% | 16.8–19.4% | 16.4–19.8% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.5–20.8% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.9% | 17.3% | 16.0–18.6% | 15.7–19.0% | 15.4–19.3% | 14.8–20.0% |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract | 0.0% | 16.0% | 14.8–17.3% | 14.4–17.7% | 14.2–18.0% | 13.6–18.6% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 10.8% | 11.5% | 10.4–12.6% | 10.1–12.9% | 9.9–13.2% | 9.4–13.8% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1.0% | 7.8% | 6.9–8.8% | 6.7–9.1% | 6.5–9.3% | 6.1–9.8% |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.8–5.5% |
| Democraten 66 | 15.0% | 3.7% | 3.1–4.4% | 2.9–4.6% | 2.8–4.8% | 2.6–5.2% |
| Socialistische Partij | 6.0% | 3.6% | 3.0–4.3% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.7–4.7% | 2.5–5.1% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 9.5% | 3.4% | 2.9–4.1% | 2.7–4.3% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.3–4.8% |
| Forum voor Democratie | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.0–4.3% |
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.2% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.9–3.6% | 1.7–3.9% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.2% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.9–3.6% | 1.7–3.9% |
| Volt Europa | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.8–2.9% | 1.7–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.4–3.5% |
| DENK | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.3–2.2% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.1–2.5% | 1.0–2.8% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% |
| Belang van Nederland | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.3–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.2–1.3% |
| 50Plus | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| Bij1 | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 17 | 27 | 27–29 | 26–30 | 26–31 | 25–31 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 34 | 28 | 25–28 | 24–29 | 22–29 | 21–29 |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract | 0 | 22 | 22–27 | 22–27 | 22–27 | 22–27 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 17 | 18 | 17–18 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 16–20 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1 | 11 | 11–12 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 11–14 |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 6 | 7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 |
| Democraten 66 | 24 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
| Socialistische Partij | 9 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–8 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 15 | 4 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Forum voor Democratie | 8 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Volt Europa | 3 | 5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| DENK | 3 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 1–4 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 3 | 3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Belang van Nederland | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| 50Plus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Bij1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 4% | 98% | |
| 27 | 75% | 93% | Median |
| 28 | 0.7% | 18% | |
| 29 | 11% | 18% | |
| 30 | 4% | 7% | |
| 31 | 3% | 3% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 22 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 24 | 4% | 96% | |
| 25 | 12% | 93% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 81% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 80% | |
| 28 | 72% | 80% | Median |
| 29 | 7% | 7% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 75% | 99.9% | Median |
| 23 | 5% | 25% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 20% | |
| 25 | 4% | 19% | |
| 26 | 3% | 15% | |
| 27 | 12% | 13% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 16 | 6% | 99.5% | |
| 17 | 7% | 94% | Last Result |
| 18 | 80% | 86% | Median |
| 19 | 5% | 6% | |
| 20 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 75% | 99.8% | Median |
| 12 | 16% | 25% | |
| 13 | 6% | 9% | |
| 14 | 3% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 11% | 100% | |
| 5 | 2% | 89% | |
| 6 | 6% | 87% | Last Result |
| 7 | 77% | 81% | Median |
| 8 | 4% | 4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 20% | 97% | |
| 5 | 73% | 77% | Median |
| 6 | 4% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 24% | 98% | |
| 6 | 73% | 75% | Median |
| 7 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 8 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 77% | 99.8% | Median |
| 5 | 5% | 22% | |
| 6 | 17% | 17% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 87% | 99.7% | Median |
| 5 | 9% | 12% | |
| 6 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 87% | 92% | Median |
| 5 | 5% | 5% | Last Result |
| 6 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 10% | 100% | |
| 3 | 14% | 90% | Last Result |
| 4 | 75% | 76% | Median |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 19% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 4 | 1.3% | 81% | |
| 5 | 80% | 80% | Median |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 2 | 76% | 99.1% | Median |
| 3 | 18% | 23% | Last Result |
| 4 | 5% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 25% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 5% | 75% | |
| 3 | 70% | 70% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Belang van Nederland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 86% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 12% | 14% | |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 8% | 8% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.9% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 1.1% | 1.1% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 67 | 70 | 0.1% | 70–72 | 70–72 | 67–73 | 67–73 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging | 52 | 66 | 0% | 66–67 | 65–68 | 63–68 | 61–68 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 | 75 | 60 | 0% | 58–60 | 57–60 | 57–60 | 56–62 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 59 | 0% | 59–60 | 58–60 | 56–60 | 54–62 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 77 | 58 | 0% | 55–58 | 54–59 | 52–60 | 52–62 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 74 | 54 | 0% | 52–54 | 50–56 | 49–57 | 49–58 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 51 | 55 | 0% | 54–55 | 53–56 | 50–56 | 50–56 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 50 | 0% | 47–50 | 45–52 | 44–52 | 44–54 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 70 | 46 | 0% | 44–48 | 44–49 | 44–50 | 44–53 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 50 | 43 | 0% | 43–45 | 41–45 | 41–47 | 38–47 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging | 18 | 38 | 0% | 38–41 | 38–41 | 38–45 | 38–45 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 61 | 40 | 0% | 39–43 | 39–44 | 38–45 | 38–45 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus | 61 | 40 | 0% | 37–41 | 37–41 | 35–44 | 35–44 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 60 | 40 | 0% | 37–40 | 37–41 | 35–44 | 35–44 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 78 | 41 | 0% | 39–41 | 39–41 | 35–42 | 35–44 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 56 | 36 | 0% | 35–39 | 35–40 | 35–41 | 35–42 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 37 | 35 | 0% | 35–39 | 35–39 | 34–41 | 33–41 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus | 58 | 36 | 0% | 35–37 | 35–38 | 32–41 | 32–41 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 57 | 36 | 0% | 35–37 | 34–37 | 32–41 | 32–41 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 73 | 37 | 0% | 35–37 | 34–37 | 32–38 | 32–40 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 32 | 31 | 0% | 31–35 | 31–36 | 31–36 | 29–36 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 49 | 32 | 0% | 31–33 | 29–33 | 27–34 | 27–34 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 39 | 9 | 0% | 9–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–13 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 3% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 68 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 70 | 70% | 97% | Median |
| 71 | 4% | 26% | |
| 72 | 18% | 23% | |
| 73 | 4% | 4% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 63 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 65 | 4% | 97% | |
| 66 | 80% | 93% | Median |
| 67 | 6% | 13% | |
| 68 | 6% | 6% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 4% | 98% | |
| 58 | 17% | 94% | |
| 59 | 1.3% | 78% | |
| 60 | 75% | 76% | Median |
| 61 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 54 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 56 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 58 | 3% | 97% | |
| 59 | 70% | 94% | Median |
| 60 | 23% | 24% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 3% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 54 | 3% | 97% | |
| 55 | 14% | 94% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 80% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 80% | |
| 58 | 71% | 80% | Median |
| 59 | 5% | 9% | |
| 60 | 3% | 4% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 62 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 3% | 97% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 52 | 4% | 94% | |
| 53 | 10% | 90% | |
| 54 | 71% | 80% | Median |
| 55 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 56 | 5% | 9% | |
| 57 | 3% | 3% | |
| 58 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0% | 97% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 53 | 3% | 97% | |
| 54 | 17% | 94% | |
| 55 | 72% | 77% | Median |
| 56 | 5% | 6% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 2% | 96% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 94% | |
| 47 | 4% | 94% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 49 | 10% | 90% | |
| 50 | 73% | 80% | Median |
| 51 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 52 | 6% | 7% | |
| 53 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 54 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 10% | 99.7% | |
| 45 | 0.9% | 90% | |
| 46 | 71% | 89% | Median |
| 47 | 0.6% | 18% | |
| 48 | 10% | 18% | |
| 49 | 3% | 8% | |
| 50 | 4% | 5% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 53 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 41 | 7% | 99.1% | |
| 42 | 2% | 92% | |
| 43 | 80% | 90% | Median |
| 44 | 0.2% | 10% | |
| 45 | 5% | 10% | |
| 46 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 47 | 4% | 4% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 38 | 73% | 99.6% | Median |
| 39 | 9% | 27% | |
| 40 | 1.1% | 18% | |
| 41 | 14% | 17% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 43 | 0% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0% | 3% | |
| 45 | 3% | 3% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 38 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 39 | 7% | 97% | |
| 40 | 71% | 90% | Median |
| 41 | 1.1% | 19% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 18% | |
| 43 | 10% | 18% | |
| 44 | 3% | 8% | |
| 45 | 5% | 5% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 3% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 97% | |
| 37 | 11% | 97% | |
| 38 | 4% | 86% | |
| 39 | 2% | 82% | |
| 40 | 70% | 80% | Median |
| 41 | 5% | 10% | |
| 42 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 43 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 44 | 3% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 3% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 97% | |
| 37 | 11% | 97% | |
| 38 | 6% | 86% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 80% | |
| 40 | 75% | 80% | Median |
| 41 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 42 | 2% | 5% | |
| 43 | 0% | 3% | |
| 44 | 3% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 3% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 97% | |
| 37 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 39 | 16% | 96% | |
| 40 | 3% | 80% | |
| 41 | 75% | 78% | Median |
| 42 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 43 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 44 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 10% | 99.5% | |
| 36 | 70% | 89% | Median |
| 37 | 0.9% | 19% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 18% | |
| 39 | 10% | 18% | |
| 40 | 4% | 8% | |
| 41 | 3% | 4% | |
| 42 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 34 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 35 | 77% | 97% | Median |
| 36 | 0.3% | 19% | |
| 37 | 1.2% | 19% | Last Result |
| 38 | 1.0% | 18% | |
| 39 | 13% | 17% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 41 | 4% | 4% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 3% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 35 | 16% | 96% | |
| 36 | 70% | 80% | Median |
| 37 | 0.3% | 10% | |
| 38 | 6% | 10% | |
| 39 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 41 | 2% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 3% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 34 | 2% | 96% | |
| 35 | 14% | 94% | |
| 36 | 70% | 80% | Median |
| 37 | 5% | 10% | |
| 38 | 2% | 5% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 41 | 2% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 3% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 34 | 5% | 97% | |
| 35 | 12% | 92% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 80% | |
| 37 | 77% | 80% | Median |
| 38 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 40 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 0% | 98% | |
| 31 | 77% | 98% | Median |
| 32 | 3% | 21% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0.4% | 18% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 18% | |
| 35 | 11% | 18% | |
| 36 | 7% | 7% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 3% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 29 | 2% | 96% | |
| 30 | 4% | 94% | |
| 31 | 10% | 90% | |
| 32 | 70% | 80% | Median |
| 33 | 5% | 10% | |
| 34 | 4% | 5% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 74% | 95% | Median |
| 10 | 19% | 21% | |
| 11 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 13 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: I&O Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 22–25 September 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1414
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.99%