Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 6–9 October 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.9% | 16.7% | 15.8–17.8% | 15.5–18.1% | 15.3–18.3% | 14.8–18.8% |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract | 0.0% | 16.5% | 15.5–17.5% | 15.2–17.8% | 15.0–18.1% | 14.6–18.6% |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 10.9% | 16.3% | 15.3–17.3% | 15.0–17.6% | 14.8–17.8% | 14.4–18.4% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 10.8% | 11.6% | 10.7–12.5% | 10.5–12.7% | 10.3–12.9% | 9.9–13.4% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1.0% | 7.5% | 6.8–8.3% | 6.6–8.5% | 6.5–8.7% | 6.2–9.0% |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.6–4.7% | 3.5–4.8% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.1–5.3% |
| Democraten 66 | 15.0% | 3.9% | 3.4–4.5% | 3.3–4.6% | 3.2–4.8% | 2.9–5.0% |
| Forum voor Democratie | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.1–4.1% | 3.0–4.3% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.7% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 9.5% | 3.4% | 3.0–3.9% | 2.8–4.1% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.5% |
| Socialistische Partij | 6.0% | 3.4% | 3.0–3.9% | 2.8–4.1% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.5% |
| Volt Europa | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.6–3.5% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% |
| DENK | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.0–2.9% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.7–3.4% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.0–2.8% | 1.8–2.9% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% |
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.6–2.3% | 1.5–2.4% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.2–2.7% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.3–2.0% | 1.2–2.1% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.0–2.4% |
| Belang van Nederland | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.2% |
| 50Plus | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.7% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% |
| Bij1 | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 34 | 27 | 23–28 | 23–28 | 23–28 | 23–29 |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract | 0 | 24 | 22–27 | 22–27 | 22–28 | 22–29 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 17 | 23 | 22–25 | 22–27 | 22–27 | 22–32 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 17 | 19 | 17–19 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 14–21 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1 | 11 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 6 | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–9 |
| Democraten 66 | 24 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| Forum voor Democratie | 8 | 5 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 15 | 5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Socialistische Partij | 9 | 6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 3–7 |
| Volt Europa | 3 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| DENK | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 3 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Belang van Nederland | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 50Plus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Bij1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 13% | 100% | |
| 24 | 1.4% | 87% | |
| 25 | 2% | 85% | |
| 26 | 25% | 83% | |
| 27 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 28 | 44% | 45% | |
| 29 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 42% | 100% | |
| 23 | 1.4% | 58% | |
| 24 | 9% | 57% | Median |
| 25 | 2% | 48% | |
| 26 | 15% | 45% | |
| 27 | 27% | 30% | |
| 28 | 2% | 3% | |
| 29 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 17% | 100% | |
| 23 | 49% | 83% | Median |
| 24 | 2% | 35% | |
| 25 | 24% | 33% | |
| 26 | 4% | 9% | |
| 27 | 4% | 5% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 32 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 15 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 16 | 5% | 98% | |
| 17 | 11% | 93% | Last Result |
| 18 | 5% | 81% | |
| 19 | 74% | 76% | Median |
| 20 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 21 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 13% | 100% | |
| 10 | 3% | 87% | |
| 11 | 69% | 84% | Median |
| 12 | 2% | 15% | |
| 13 | 12% | 14% | |
| 14 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 18% | 98.8% | |
| 6 | 24% | 80% | Last Result |
| 7 | 54% | 56% | Median |
| 8 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 5 | 13% | 99.3% | |
| 6 | 76% | 87% | Median |
| 7 | 10% | 11% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 27% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 48% | 73% | Median |
| 6 | 12% | 25% | |
| 7 | 14% | 14% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 4 | 6% | 99.4% | |
| 5 | 62% | 94% | Median |
| 6 | 31% | 32% | |
| 7 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 7% | 99.0% | |
| 5 | 24% | 92% | |
| 6 | 22% | 67% | Median |
| 7 | 45% | 45% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 15% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 4 | 57% | 85% | Median |
| 5 | 26% | 28% | |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 70% | 98% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 25% | 29% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 20% | 100% | |
| 3 | 8% | 80% | Last Result |
| 4 | 72% | 72% | Median |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 51% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 46% | 49% | |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 50% | 96% | Median |
| 3 | 47% | 47% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Belang van Nederland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 33% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 67% | 67% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.7% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 1.3% | 1.3% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 67 | 67 | 0% | 65–67 | 65–69 | 64–71 | 63–73 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging | 52 | 62 | 0% | 59–62 | 59–64 | 59–66 | 59–68 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 77 | 61 | 0% | 54–62 | 54–62 | 53–62 | 52–64 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 56 | 0% | 54–57 | 54–57 | 53–60 | 52–62 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 | 75 | 57 | 0% | 54–58 | 53–58 | 53–59 | 53–64 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 74 | 57 | 0% | 50–58 | 50–58 | 49–58 | 49–60 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 51 | 51 | 0% | 48–52 | 48–52 | 48–55 | 47–57 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 51 | 0% | 46–52 | 45–52 | 44–52 | 43–53 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie | 70 | 43 | 0% | 42–45 | 42–46 | 40–49 | 40–52 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 50 | 43 | 0% | 41–44 | 40–44 | 39–45 | 38–46 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus | 61 | 42 | 0% | 37–43 | 37–43 | 37–43 | 36–44 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 60 | 42 | 0% | 37–43 | 37–43 | 37–43 | 36–44 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 78 | 41 | 0% | 37–41 | 37–41 | 37–42 | 36–43 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 61 | 37 | 0% | 36–39 | 36–41 | 35–42 | 35–47 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 73 | 38 | 0% | 34–39 | 34–39 | 34–39 | 34–40 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus | 58 | 38 | 0% | 33–39 | 33–39 | 33–39 | 33–41 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 56 | 34 | 0% | 34–36 | 34–37 | 33–39 | 33–44 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 57 | 38 | 0% | 33–39 | 33–39 | 33–39 | 33–41 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging | 18 | 34 | 0% | 33–38 | 33–38 | 33–38 | 33–43 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 37 | 31 | 0% | 30–34 | 30–35 | 29–35 | 29–40 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 49 | 32 | 0% | 29–33 | 29–33 | 28–33 | 27–34 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 32 | 28 | 0% | 28–31 | 28–32 | 27–32 | 27–37 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 39 | 11 | 0% | 11–12 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–13 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 2% | 100% | |
| 64 | 3% | 98% | |
| 65 | 18% | 95% | |
| 66 | 16% | 77% | Median |
| 67 | 52% | 60% | Last Result |
| 68 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 69 | 3% | 7% | |
| 70 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 71 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 73 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 19% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 4% | 81% | |
| 61 | 25% | 76% | Median |
| 62 | 43% | 51% | |
| 63 | 3% | 8% | |
| 64 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 66 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 67 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 68 | 2% | 2% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 53 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 54 | 10% | 97% | |
| 55 | 3% | 87% | |
| 56 | 2% | 84% | |
| 57 | 20% | 82% | |
| 58 | 2% | 62% | |
| 59 | 6% | 61% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 55% | Median |
| 61 | 42% | 55% | |
| 62 | 13% | 13% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 64 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 53 | 4% | 99.1% | |
| 54 | 27% | 95% | |
| 55 | 7% | 69% | Median |
| 56 | 44% | 62% | |
| 57 | 13% | 17% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 59 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 60 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 62 | 2% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 9% | 100% | |
| 54 | 17% | 91% | |
| 55 | 4% | 74% | |
| 56 | 7% | 70% | Median |
| 57 | 44% | 63% | |
| 58 | 15% | 18% | |
| 59 | 2% | 4% | |
| 60 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 63 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 64 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 3% | 100% | |
| 50 | 9% | 97% | |
| 51 | 2% | 89% | |
| 52 | 2% | 86% | |
| 53 | 3% | 84% | |
| 54 | 2% | 81% | |
| 55 | 20% | 79% | |
| 56 | 2% | 59% | Median |
| 57 | 43% | 57% | |
| 58 | 12% | 13% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 60 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 48 | 25% | 99.5% | |
| 49 | 9% | 74% | |
| 50 | 5% | 66% | Median |
| 51 | 44% | 61% | Last Result |
| 52 | 13% | 17% | |
| 53 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 54 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 55 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 57 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 2% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 45 | 3% | 97% | |
| 46 | 9% | 94% | |
| 47 | 1.5% | 85% | |
| 48 | 4% | 84% | |
| 49 | 4% | 80% | |
| 50 | 1.1% | 76% | |
| 51 | 32% | 75% | Median |
| 52 | 42% | 43% | |
| 53 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 40 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 41 | 2% | 97% | |
| 42 | 20% | 95% | Median |
| 43 | 44% | 75% | |
| 44 | 1.4% | 31% | |
| 45 | 25% | 30% | |
| 46 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 47 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 49 | 2% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 52 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 2% | 100% | |
| 39 | 2% | 98% | |
| 40 | 3% | 95% | |
| 41 | 14% | 93% | |
| 42 | 12% | 78% | |
| 43 | 18% | 67% | Median |
| 44 | 44% | 49% | |
| 45 | 3% | 5% | |
| 46 | 2% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 10% | 98.9% | |
| 38 | 20% | 89% | |
| 39 | 2% | 68% | |
| 40 | 4% | 66% | |
| 41 | 6% | 62% | Median |
| 42 | 42% | 56% | |
| 43 | 12% | 14% | |
| 44 | 2% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 10% | 98.8% | |
| 38 | 21% | 88% | |
| 39 | 2% | 67% | |
| 40 | 6% | 65% | |
| 41 | 4% | 59% | Median |
| 42 | 42% | 56% | |
| 43 | 13% | 14% | |
| 44 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 2% | 100% | |
| 37 | 9% | 98% | |
| 38 | 6% | 89% | |
| 39 | 3% | 83% | |
| 40 | 2% | 80% | Median |
| 41 | 75% | 79% | |
| 42 | 3% | 3% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 42% | 97% | Median |
| 37 | 18% | 55% | |
| 38 | 5% | 37% | |
| 39 | 24% | 32% | |
| 40 | 2% | 8% | |
| 41 | 2% | 6% | |
| 42 | 3% | 4% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 44 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 47 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 10% | 100% | |
| 35 | 5% | 90% | |
| 36 | 3% | 84% | |
| 37 | 3% | 81% | |
| 38 | 32% | 78% | Median |
| 39 | 45% | 46% | |
| 40 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 10% | 100% | |
| 34 | 4% | 90% | |
| 35 | 2% | 86% | |
| 36 | 18% | 84% | |
| 37 | 5% | 66% | Median |
| 38 | 47% | 61% | |
| 39 | 13% | 14% | |
| 40 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 58% | 97% | Median |
| 35 | 4% | 38% | |
| 36 | 25% | 35% | |
| 37 | 5% | 10% | |
| 38 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 39 | 3% | 4% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 44 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 10% | 100% | |
| 34 | 3% | 90% | |
| 35 | 4% | 86% | |
| 36 | 19% | 83% | |
| 37 | 4% | 63% | Median |
| 38 | 45% | 59% | |
| 39 | 13% | 14% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 41 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 19% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 57% | 81% | Median |
| 35 | 0.8% | 24% | |
| 36 | 1.4% | 23% | |
| 37 | 7% | 22% | |
| 38 | 12% | 15% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 43 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 43% | 97% | Median |
| 31 | 19% | 54% | |
| 32 | 4% | 35% | |
| 33 | 14% | 31% | |
| 34 | 9% | 17% | |
| 35 | 5% | 7% | |
| 36 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 38 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 40 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 2% | 100% | |
| 28 | 2% | 98% | |
| 29 | 10% | 96% | |
| 30 | 6% | 86% | |
| 31 | 2% | 80% | |
| 32 | 32% | 78% | Median |
| 33 | 44% | 46% | |
| 34 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 27 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 28 | 60% | 97% | Median |
| 29 | 4% | 37% | |
| 30 | 15% | 33% | |
| 31 | 12% | 18% | |
| 32 | 4% | 6% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 37 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 11 | 68% | 94% | Median |
| 12 | 25% | 27% | |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: I&O Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 6–9 October 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 2293
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.27%