Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 6–9 October 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie |
21.9% |
16.7% |
15.8–17.8% |
15.5–18.1% |
15.3–18.3% |
14.8–18.8% |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract |
0.0% |
16.5% |
15.5–17.5% |
15.2–17.8% |
15.0–18.1% |
14.6–18.6% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid |
10.9% |
16.3% |
15.3–17.3% |
15.0–17.6% |
14.8–17.8% |
14.4–18.4% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid |
10.8% |
11.6% |
10.7–12.5% |
10.5–12.7% |
10.3–12.9% |
9.9–13.4% |
BoerBurgerBeweging |
1.0% |
7.5% |
6.8–8.3% |
6.6–8.5% |
6.5–8.7% |
6.2–9.0% |
Partij voor de Dieren |
3.8% |
4.1% |
3.6–4.7% |
3.5–4.8% |
3.4–5.0% |
3.1–5.3% |
Democraten 66 |
15.0% |
3.9% |
3.4–4.5% |
3.3–4.6% |
3.2–4.8% |
2.9–5.0% |
Forum voor Democratie |
5.0% |
3.6% |
3.1–4.1% |
3.0–4.3% |
2.9–4.4% |
2.7–4.7% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
9.5% |
3.4% |
3.0–3.9% |
2.8–4.1% |
2.7–4.2% |
2.5–4.5% |
Socialistische Partij |
6.0% |
3.4% |
3.0–3.9% |
2.8–4.1% |
2.7–4.2% |
2.5–4.5% |
Volt Europa |
2.4% |
3.0% |
2.6–3.5% |
2.5–3.7% |
2.4–3.8% |
2.2–4.1% |
DENK |
2.0% |
2.4% |
2.0–2.9% |
1.9–3.0% |
1.8–3.1% |
1.7–3.4% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
2.1% |
2.3% |
2.0–2.8% |
1.8–2.9% |
1.8–3.0% |
1.6–3.2% |
ChristenUnie |
3.4% |
1.9% |
1.6–2.3% |
1.5–2.4% |
1.4–2.5% |
1.2–2.7% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 |
2.4% |
1.6% |
1.3–2.0% |
1.2–2.1% |
1.2–2.2% |
1.0–2.4% |
Belang van Nederland |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.4–0.9% |
0.4–1.0% |
0.4–1.0% |
0.3–1.2% |
50Plus |
1.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
Bij1 |
0.8% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.5% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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Confidence Intervals
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
13% |
100% |
|
24 |
1.4% |
87% |
|
25 |
2% |
85% |
|
26 |
25% |
83% |
|
27 |
13% |
58% |
Median |
28 |
44% |
45% |
|
29 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
30 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
42% |
100% |
|
23 |
1.4% |
58% |
|
24 |
9% |
57% |
Median |
25 |
2% |
48% |
|
26 |
15% |
45% |
|
27 |
27% |
30% |
|
28 |
2% |
3% |
|
29 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
17% |
100% |
|
23 |
49% |
83% |
Median |
24 |
2% |
35% |
|
25 |
24% |
33% |
|
26 |
4% |
9% |
|
27 |
4% |
5% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
29 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
30 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
32 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
15 |
1.3% |
99.1% |
|
16 |
5% |
98% |
|
17 |
11% |
93% |
Last Result |
18 |
5% |
81% |
|
19 |
74% |
76% |
Median |
20 |
0.6% |
1.5% |
|
21 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
13% |
100% |
|
10 |
3% |
87% |
|
11 |
69% |
84% |
Median |
12 |
2% |
15% |
|
13 |
12% |
14% |
|
14 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
5 |
18% |
98.8% |
|
6 |
24% |
80% |
Last Result |
7 |
54% |
56% |
Median |
8 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
9 |
2% |
2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
5 |
13% |
99.3% |
|
6 |
76% |
87% |
Median |
7 |
10% |
11% |
|
8 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
9 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
27% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
48% |
73% |
Median |
6 |
12% |
25% |
|
7 |
14% |
14% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
4 |
6% |
99.4% |
|
5 |
62% |
94% |
Median |
6 |
31% |
32% |
|
7 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
4 |
7% |
99.0% |
|
5 |
24% |
92% |
|
6 |
22% |
67% |
Median |
7 |
45% |
45% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
3 |
15% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
4 |
57% |
85% |
Median |
5 |
26% |
28% |
|
6 |
2% |
2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
2% |
100% |
|
3 |
70% |
98% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
25% |
29% |
|
5 |
3% |
3% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
20% |
100% |
|
3 |
8% |
80% |
Last Result |
4 |
72% |
72% |
Median |
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
51% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
46% |
49% |
|
4 |
3% |
3% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
4% |
100% |
|
2 |
50% |
96% |
Median |
3 |
47% |
47% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Belang van Nederland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
33% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
67% |
67% |
Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
94% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
6% |
6% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98.7% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
67 |
67 |
0% |
65–67 |
65–69 |
64–71 |
63–73 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging |
52 |
62 |
0% |
59–62 |
59–64 |
59–66 |
59–68 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
77 |
61 |
0% |
54–62 |
54–62 |
53–62 |
52–64 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
56 |
0% |
54–57 |
54–57 |
53–60 |
52–62 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 |
75 |
57 |
0% |
54–58 |
53–58 |
53–59 |
53–64 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
74 |
57 |
0% |
50–58 |
50–58 |
49–58 |
49–60 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid |
51 |
51 |
0% |
48–52 |
48–52 |
48–55 |
47–57 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
51 |
0% |
46–52 |
45–52 |
44–52 |
43–53 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie |
70 |
43 |
0% |
42–45 |
42–46 |
40–49 |
40–52 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
50 |
43 |
0% |
41–44 |
40–44 |
39–45 |
38–46 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus |
61 |
42 |
0% |
37–43 |
37–43 |
37–43 |
36–44 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
60 |
42 |
0% |
37–43 |
37–43 |
37–43 |
36–44 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
78 |
41 |
0% |
37–41 |
37–41 |
37–42 |
36–43 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
61 |
37 |
0% |
36–39 |
36–41 |
35–42 |
35–47 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
73 |
38 |
0% |
34–39 |
34–39 |
34–39 |
34–40 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus |
58 |
38 |
0% |
33–39 |
33–39 |
33–39 |
33–41 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
56 |
34 |
0% |
34–36 |
34–37 |
33–39 |
33–44 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
57 |
38 |
0% |
33–39 |
33–39 |
33–39 |
33–41 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging |
18 |
34 |
0% |
33–38 |
33–38 |
33–38 |
33–43 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
37 |
31 |
0% |
30–34 |
30–35 |
29–35 |
29–40 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
49 |
32 |
0% |
29–33 |
29–33 |
28–33 |
27–34 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
32 |
28 |
0% |
28–31 |
28–32 |
27–32 |
27–37 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
39 |
11 |
0% |
11–12 |
10–12 |
10–12 |
9–13 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
63 |
2% |
100% |
|
64 |
3% |
98% |
|
65 |
18% |
95% |
|
66 |
16% |
77% |
Median |
67 |
52% |
60% |
Last Result |
68 |
0.9% |
8% |
|
69 |
3% |
7% |
|
70 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
71 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
72 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
73 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
74 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
75 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
100% |
|
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
58 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
59 |
19% |
99.8% |
|
60 |
4% |
81% |
|
61 |
25% |
76% |
Median |
62 |
43% |
51% |
|
63 |
3% |
8% |
|
64 |
1.1% |
5% |
|
65 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
66 |
1.1% |
4% |
|
67 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
68 |
2% |
2% |
|
69 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
53 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
54 |
10% |
97% |
|
55 |
3% |
87% |
|
56 |
2% |
84% |
|
57 |
20% |
82% |
|
58 |
2% |
62% |
|
59 |
6% |
61% |
|
60 |
0.4% |
55% |
Median |
61 |
42% |
55% |
|
62 |
13% |
13% |
|
63 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
64 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
53 |
4% |
99.1% |
|
54 |
27% |
95% |
|
55 |
7% |
69% |
Median |
56 |
44% |
62% |
|
57 |
13% |
17% |
|
58 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
59 |
1.2% |
4% |
|
60 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
61 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
62 |
2% |
2% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
53 |
9% |
100% |
|
54 |
17% |
91% |
|
55 |
4% |
74% |
|
56 |
7% |
70% |
Median |
57 |
44% |
63% |
|
58 |
15% |
18% |
|
59 |
2% |
4% |
|
60 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
61 |
0% |
1.4% |
|
62 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
|
63 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
64 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
49 |
3% |
100% |
|
50 |
9% |
97% |
|
51 |
2% |
89% |
|
52 |
2% |
86% |
|
53 |
3% |
84% |
|
54 |
2% |
81% |
|
55 |
20% |
79% |
|
56 |
2% |
59% |
Median |
57 |
43% |
57% |
|
58 |
12% |
13% |
|
59 |
0.4% |
1.2% |
|
60 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
47 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
48 |
25% |
99.5% |
|
49 |
9% |
74% |
|
50 |
5% |
66% |
Median |
51 |
44% |
61% |
Last Result |
52 |
13% |
17% |
|
53 |
1.0% |
4% |
|
54 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
55 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
56 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
57 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
43 |
2% |
100% |
|
44 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
45 |
3% |
97% |
|
46 |
9% |
94% |
|
47 |
1.5% |
85% |
|
48 |
4% |
84% |
|
49 |
4% |
80% |
|
50 |
1.1% |
76% |
|
51 |
32% |
75% |
Median |
52 |
42% |
43% |
|
53 |
0.8% |
1.2% |
|
54 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
39 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
40 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
41 |
2% |
97% |
|
42 |
20% |
95% |
Median |
43 |
44% |
75% |
|
44 |
1.4% |
31% |
|
45 |
25% |
30% |
|
46 |
1.0% |
5% |
|
47 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
48 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
49 |
2% |
3% |
|
50 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
51 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
52 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
38 |
2% |
100% |
|
39 |
2% |
98% |
|
40 |
3% |
95% |
|
41 |
14% |
93% |
|
42 |
12% |
78% |
|
43 |
18% |
67% |
Median |
44 |
44% |
49% |
|
45 |
3% |
5% |
|
46 |
2% |
2% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
36 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
37 |
10% |
98.9% |
|
38 |
20% |
89% |
|
39 |
2% |
68% |
|
40 |
4% |
66% |
|
41 |
6% |
62% |
Median |
42 |
42% |
56% |
|
43 |
12% |
14% |
|
44 |
2% |
2% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
36 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
37 |
10% |
98.8% |
|
38 |
21% |
88% |
|
39 |
2% |
67% |
|
40 |
6% |
65% |
|
41 |
4% |
59% |
Median |
42 |
42% |
56% |
|
43 |
13% |
14% |
|
44 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
36 |
2% |
100% |
|
37 |
9% |
98% |
|
38 |
6% |
89% |
|
39 |
3% |
83% |
|
40 |
2% |
80% |
Median |
41 |
75% |
79% |
|
42 |
3% |
3% |
|
43 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
35 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
36 |
42% |
97% |
Median |
37 |
18% |
55% |
|
38 |
5% |
37% |
|
39 |
24% |
32% |
|
40 |
2% |
8% |
|
41 |
2% |
6% |
|
42 |
3% |
4% |
|
43 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
44 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
45 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
46 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
47 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
10% |
100% |
|
35 |
5% |
90% |
|
36 |
3% |
84% |
|
37 |
3% |
81% |
|
38 |
32% |
78% |
Median |
39 |
45% |
46% |
|
40 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
10% |
100% |
|
34 |
4% |
90% |
|
35 |
2% |
86% |
|
36 |
18% |
84% |
|
37 |
5% |
66% |
Median |
38 |
47% |
61% |
|
39 |
13% |
14% |
|
40 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
41 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
33 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
34 |
58% |
97% |
Median |
35 |
4% |
38% |
|
36 |
25% |
35% |
|
37 |
5% |
10% |
|
38 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
39 |
3% |
4% |
|
40 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
41 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
42 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
43 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
44 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
10% |
100% |
|
34 |
3% |
90% |
|
35 |
4% |
86% |
|
36 |
19% |
83% |
|
37 |
4% |
63% |
Median |
38 |
45% |
59% |
|
39 |
13% |
14% |
|
40 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
41 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
33 |
19% |
99.9% |
|
34 |
57% |
81% |
Median |
35 |
0.8% |
24% |
|
36 |
1.4% |
23% |
|
37 |
7% |
22% |
|
38 |
12% |
15% |
|
39 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
40 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
41 |
0% |
2% |
|
42 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
43 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
29 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
30 |
43% |
97% |
Median |
31 |
19% |
54% |
|
32 |
4% |
35% |
|
33 |
14% |
31% |
|
34 |
9% |
17% |
|
35 |
5% |
7% |
|
36 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
37 |
0.2% |
2% |
Last Result |
38 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
39 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
40 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
2% |
100% |
|
28 |
2% |
98% |
|
29 |
10% |
96% |
|
30 |
6% |
86% |
|
31 |
2% |
80% |
|
32 |
32% |
78% |
Median |
33 |
44% |
46% |
|
34 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
27 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
28 |
60% |
97% |
Median |
29 |
4% |
37% |
|
30 |
15% |
33% |
|
31 |
12% |
18% |
|
32 |
4% |
6% |
Last Result |
33 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
34 |
0% |
2% |
|
35 |
0% |
2% |
|
36 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
37 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
9 |
1.4% |
99.9% |
|
10 |
4% |
98.6% |
|
11 |
68% |
94% |
Median |
12 |
25% |
27% |
|
13 |
2% |
2% |
|
14 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
15 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: I&O Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 6–9 October 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 2293
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.27%