Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 27–28 October 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract |
0.0% |
20.6% |
19.6–21.5% |
19.4–21.8% |
19.2–22.1% |
18.7–22.5% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie |
21.9% |
17.2% |
16.4–18.2% |
16.1–18.4% |
15.9–18.6% |
15.5–19.1% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid |
10.9% |
15.9% |
15.1–16.8% |
14.9–17.1% |
14.7–17.3% |
14.3–17.7% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid |
10.8% |
12.6% |
11.8–13.4% |
11.6–13.6% |
11.4–13.8% |
11.1–14.2% |
BoerBurgerBeweging |
1.0% |
6.0% |
5.4–6.6% |
5.3–6.7% |
5.2–6.9% |
4.9–7.2% |
Democraten 66 |
15.0% |
4.6% |
4.2–5.2% |
4.0–5.3% |
3.9–5.5% |
3.7–5.7% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
9.5% |
3.3% |
2.9–3.8% |
2.8–3.9% |
2.7–4.0% |
2.6–4.3% |
Forum voor Democratie |
5.0% |
3.3% |
2.9–3.8% |
2.8–3.9% |
2.7–4.0% |
2.6–4.3% |
ChristenUnie |
3.4% |
2.7% |
2.3–3.1% |
2.2–3.2% |
2.1–3.3% |
2.0–3.5% |
Socialistische Partij |
6.0% |
2.7% |
2.3–3.1% |
2.2–3.2% |
2.1–3.3% |
2.0–3.5% |
Volt Europa |
2.4% |
2.7% |
2.3–3.1% |
2.2–3.2% |
2.1–3.3% |
2.0–3.5% |
Partij voor de Dieren |
3.8% |
2.7% |
2.3–3.1% |
2.2–3.2% |
2.1–3.3% |
2.0–3.5% |
DENK |
2.0% |
2.0% |
1.7–2.4% |
1.6–2.5% |
1.6–2.6% |
1.4–2.8% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 |
2.4% |
1.3% |
1.1–1.6% |
1.0–1.7% |
1.0–1.8% |
0.9–2.0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
2.1% |
1.3% |
1.1–1.6% |
1.0–1.7% |
1.0–1.8% |
0.9–2.0% |
Belang van Nederland |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.5–0.9% |
0.5–1.0% |
0.4–1.0% |
0.4–1.2% |
Bij1 |
0.8% |
0.2% |
0.1–0.3% |
0.1–0.4% |
0.1–0.4% |
0.0–0.5% |
50Plus |
1.0% |
0.2% |
0.1–0.3% |
0.1–0.4% |
0.1–0.4% |
0.0–0.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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
Confidence Intervals
Nieuw Sociaal Contract
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
29 |
8% |
99.1% |
|
30 |
3% |
91% |
|
31 |
57% |
88% |
Median |
32 |
8% |
30% |
|
33 |
20% |
23% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
35 |
2% |
2% |
|
36 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
23 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
24 |
4% |
98.8% |
|
25 |
10% |
94% |
|
26 |
9% |
85% |
|
27 |
66% |
75% |
Median |
28 |
6% |
9% |
|
29 |
0% |
3% |
|
30 |
2% |
3% |
|
31 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
10% |
98% |
|
24 |
61% |
88% |
Median |
25 |
8% |
27% |
|
26 |
15% |
19% |
|
27 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
28 |
3% |
3% |
|
29 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
11% |
100% |
Last Result |
18 |
13% |
89% |
|
19 |
15% |
76% |
|
20 |
1.2% |
62% |
|
21 |
58% |
61% |
Median |
22 |
3% |
3% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
8 |
14% |
98.9% |
|
9 |
71% |
85% |
Median |
10 |
8% |
15% |
|
11 |
7% |
7% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
1.5% |
100% |
|
6 |
3% |
98.5% |
|
7 |
87% |
96% |
Median |
8 |
6% |
9% |
|
9 |
3% |
3% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
4 |
67% |
99.2% |
Median |
5 |
14% |
33% |
|
6 |
17% |
19% |
|
7 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
4 |
60% |
99.7% |
Median |
5 |
37% |
40% |
|
6 |
2% |
3% |
|
7 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
14% |
100% |
|
4 |
73% |
86% |
Median |
5 |
13% |
13% |
Last Result |
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
5% |
100% |
|
3 |
15% |
95% |
|
4 |
22% |
81% |
|
5 |
59% |
59% |
Median |
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
3 |
14% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
4 |
72% |
86% |
Median |
5 |
14% |
14% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
20% |
100% |
|
4 |
72% |
80% |
Median |
5 |
7% |
7% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
67% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
29% |
33% |
Last Result |
4 |
4% |
4% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
16% |
100% |
|
2 |
79% |
84% |
Median |
3 |
4% |
4% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
63% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
36% |
37% |
|
3 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Belang van Nederland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
28% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
72% |
72% |
Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
95% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
5% |
5% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
67 |
64 |
0% |
64–66 |
63–68 |
62–68 |
60–69 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging |
52 |
60 |
0% |
59–62 |
59–62 |
57–64 |
56–64 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 |
75 |
58 |
0% |
57–60 |
56–61 |
56–61 |
54–61 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
77 |
57 |
0% |
54–58 |
53–59 |
53–60 |
53–62 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
55 |
0% |
55–58 |
54–58 |
53–58 |
53–60 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
74 |
56 |
0% |
52–56 |
52–57 |
52–58 |
51–60 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid |
51 |
51 |
0% |
50–53 |
49–54 |
49–54 |
48–54 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
52 |
0% |
47–52 |
47–52 |
47–54 |
46–55 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie – Socialistische Partij |
70 |
44 |
0% |
43–47 |
43–48 |
42–48 |
41–48 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
78 |
42 |
0% |
42–44 |
40–45 |
39–45 |
38–48 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
50 |
40 |
0% |
40–42 |
39–42 |
38–44 |
34–45 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
61 |
39 |
0% |
39–43 |
39–43 |
38–44 |
37–44 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus |
61 |
36 |
0% |
36–40 |
36–40 |
36–41 |
34–43 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
73 |
38 |
0% |
37–40 |
36–41 |
36–41 |
34–43 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
60 |
36 |
0% |
36–40 |
36–40 |
36–41 |
34–43 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus |
58 |
35 |
0% |
34–38 |
34–38 |
34–39 |
32–41 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
56 |
35 |
0% |
35–38 |
35–39 |
34–39 |
32–40 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
57 |
35 |
0% |
34–38 |
34–38 |
34–39 |
32–41 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging |
18 |
33 |
0% |
32–36 |
32–36 |
31–39 |
31–39 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
37 |
32 |
0% |
32–35 |
32–36 |
32–36 |
31–36 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
49 |
31 |
0% |
30–33 |
29–33 |
29–35 |
27–36 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
32 |
28 |
0% |
28–31 |
28–32 |
27–32 |
27–32 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
39 |
11 |
0% |
11–13 |
11–13 |
11–14 |
9–14 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
60 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
61 |
1.2% |
98.8% |
|
62 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
63 |
3% |
97% |
|
64 |
55% |
95% |
Median |
65 |
16% |
40% |
|
66 |
17% |
23% |
|
67 |
0.7% |
6% |
Last Result |
68 |
4% |
5% |
|
69 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
70 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
71 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
56 |
1.1% |
99.8% |
|
57 |
2% |
98.8% |
|
58 |
1.4% |
97% |
|
59 |
15% |
95% |
|
60 |
61% |
81% |
Median |
61 |
6% |
20% |
|
62 |
9% |
13% |
|
63 |
1.3% |
5% |
|
64 |
3% |
3% |
|
65 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
66 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
53 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
54 |
1.4% |
99.7% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
56 |
5% |
98% |
|
57 |
13% |
94% |
|
58 |
60% |
80% |
Median |
59 |
7% |
20% |
|
60 |
5% |
14% |
|
61 |
8% |
9% |
|
62 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
63 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
64 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
53 |
8% |
99.5% |
|
54 |
4% |
92% |
|
55 |
1.4% |
88% |
|
56 |
0.4% |
86% |
|
57 |
59% |
86% |
Median |
58 |
21% |
27% |
|
59 |
2% |
6% |
|
60 |
3% |
4% |
|
61 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
62 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
63 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
51 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
52 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
53 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
54 |
5% |
97% |
|
55 |
54% |
92% |
Median |
56 |
21% |
38% |
|
57 |
7% |
17% |
|
58 |
8% |
11% |
|
59 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
60 |
1.2% |
1.4% |
|
61 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
62 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
63 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
50 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
51 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
52 |
11% |
99.3% |
|
53 |
1.4% |
88% |
|
54 |
0.3% |
87% |
|
55 |
6% |
86% |
|
56 |
74% |
81% |
Median |
57 |
2% |
6% |
|
58 |
3% |
4% |
|
59 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
|
60 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
61 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
45 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
47 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
48 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
49 |
7% |
99.4% |
|
50 |
12% |
92% |
|
51 |
62% |
80% |
Last Result, Median |
52 |
6% |
18% |
|
53 |
6% |
12% |
|
54 |
6% |
6% |
|
55 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
56 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
57 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
58 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
46 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
47 |
11% |
99.3% |
|
48 |
1.4% |
88% |
|
49 |
3% |
87% |
|
50 |
3% |
84% |
|
51 |
18% |
81% |
|
52 |
58% |
63% |
Median |
53 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
54 |
3% |
4% |
|
55 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie – Socialistische Partij

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
40 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
41 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
42 |
2% |
98% |
|
43 |
13% |
97% |
|
44 |
63% |
83% |
Median |
45 |
8% |
21% |
|
46 |
1.3% |
12% |
|
47 |
2% |
11% |
|
48 |
9% |
9% |
|
49 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
36 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
37 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
38 |
1.1% |
99.8% |
|
39 |
3% |
98.7% |
|
40 |
5% |
95% |
|
41 |
0.3% |
91% |
|
42 |
59% |
91% |
Median |
43 |
21% |
31% |
|
44 |
5% |
11% |
|
45 |
5% |
6% |
|
46 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
48 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
35 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
36 |
0.4% |
99.1% |
|
37 |
1.1% |
98.7% |
|
38 |
2% |
98% |
|
39 |
2% |
96% |
|
40 |
73% |
94% |
Median |
41 |
8% |
21% |
|
42 |
9% |
13% |
|
43 |
2% |
4% |
|
44 |
1.2% |
3% |
|
45 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
37 |
2% |
100% |
|
38 |
2% |
98% |
|
39 |
60% |
97% |
Median |
40 |
5% |
37% |
|
41 |
16% |
32% |
|
42 |
5% |
16% |
|
43 |
7% |
11% |
|
44 |
4% |
4% |
|
45 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
34 |
1.2% |
99.8% |
|
35 |
1.0% |
98.6% |
|
36 |
69% |
98% |
Median |
37 |
0.7% |
28% |
|
38 |
1.4% |
27% |
|
39 |
10% |
26% |
|
40 |
12% |
16% |
|
41 |
3% |
4% |
|
42 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
43 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
33 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
34 |
1.1% |
99.8% |
|
35 |
0.6% |
98.7% |
|
36 |
7% |
98% |
|
37 |
7% |
91% |
|
38 |
54% |
85% |
Median |
39 |
16% |
30% |
|
40 |
9% |
15% |
|
41 |
4% |
6% |
|
42 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
43 |
1.1% |
1.2% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
34 |
1.2% |
99.8% |
|
35 |
1.0% |
98.6% |
|
36 |
69% |
98% |
Median |
37 |
0.8% |
28% |
|
38 |
1.4% |
27% |
|
39 |
10% |
26% |
|
40 |
12% |
16% |
|
41 |
3% |
4% |
|
42 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
43 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
33 |
1.1% |
98.9% |
|
34 |
8% |
98% |
|
35 |
62% |
90% |
Median |
36 |
1.4% |
28% |
|
37 |
10% |
26% |
|
38 |
12% |
16% |
|
39 |
3% |
4% |
|
40 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
41 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
33 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
34 |
2% |
98.6% |
|
35 |
55% |
97% |
Median |
36 |
9% |
41% |
|
37 |
14% |
32% |
|
38 |
9% |
18% |
|
39 |
7% |
9% |
|
40 |
2% |
2% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
33 |
1.1% |
98.9% |
|
34 |
8% |
98% |
|
35 |
62% |
90% |
Median |
36 |
1.5% |
28% |
|
37 |
10% |
26% |
|
38 |
12% |
16% |
|
39 |
3% |
4% |
|
40 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
41 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
31 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
32 |
9% |
96% |
|
33 |
63% |
86% |
Median |
34 |
8% |
24% |
|
35 |
1.1% |
15% |
|
36 |
11% |
14% |
|
37 |
0% |
3% |
|
38 |
0% |
3% |
|
39 |
3% |
3% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
32 |
64% |
99.4% |
Median |
33 |
5% |
35% |
|
34 |
15% |
31% |
|
35 |
8% |
16% |
|
36 |
8% |
8% |
|
37 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
38 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.6% |
98.9% |
|
29 |
8% |
98% |
|
30 |
9% |
91% |
|
31 |
54% |
82% |
Median |
32 |
13% |
27% |
|
33 |
10% |
15% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
35 |
3% |
4% |
|
36 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
3% |
100% |
|
28 |
55% |
97% |
Median |
29 |
10% |
42% |
|
30 |
19% |
32% |
|
31 |
8% |
14% |
|
32 |
5% |
6% |
Last Result |
33 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
34 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
10 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
11 |
63% |
98% |
Median |
12 |
13% |
34% |
|
13 |
17% |
22% |
|
14 |
5% |
5% |
|
15 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Peil.nl
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 27–28 October 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 3000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.52%