Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 27–28 October 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract | 0.0% | 20.6% | 19.6–21.5% | 19.4–21.8% | 19.2–22.1% | 18.7–22.5% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.9% | 17.2% | 16.4–18.2% | 16.1–18.4% | 15.9–18.6% | 15.5–19.1% |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 10.9% | 15.9% | 15.1–16.8% | 14.9–17.1% | 14.7–17.3% | 14.3–17.7% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 10.8% | 12.6% | 11.8–13.4% | 11.6–13.6% | 11.4–13.8% | 11.1–14.2% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1.0% | 6.0% | 5.4–6.6% | 5.3–6.7% | 5.2–6.9% | 4.9–7.2% |
| Democraten 66 | 15.0% | 4.6% | 4.2–5.2% | 4.0–5.3% | 3.9–5.5% | 3.7–5.7% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 9.5% | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| Forum voor Democratie | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% |
| Socialistische Partij | 6.0% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% |
| Volt Europa | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% |
| DENK | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.4% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.1–1.6% | 1.0–1.7% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–2.0% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.1–1.6% | 1.0–1.7% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–2.0% |
| Belang van Nederland | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–0.9% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.2% |
| Bij1 | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.3% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% |
| 50Plus | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.3% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract | 0 | 31 | 30–33 | 29–33 | 29–33 | 28–35 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 34 | 27 | 25–27 | 24–28 | 24–30 | 23–31 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 17 | 24 | 23–26 | 23–26 | 23–28 | 22–28 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 17 | 21 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 17–22 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–11 |
| Democraten 66 | 24 | 7 | 7 | 7–8 | 6–9 | 5–9 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 15 | 4 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Forum voor Democratie | 8 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Socialistische Partij | 9 | 5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Volt Europa | 3 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 6 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| DENK | 3 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 3 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Belang van Nederland | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Bij1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 50Plus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 29 | 8% | 99.1% | |
| 30 | 3% | 91% | |
| 31 | 57% | 88% | Median |
| 32 | 8% | 30% | |
| 33 | 20% | 23% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 35 | 2% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 25 | 10% | 94% | |
| 26 | 9% | 85% | |
| 27 | 66% | 75% | Median |
| 28 | 6% | 9% | |
| 29 | 0% | 3% | |
| 30 | 2% | 3% | |
| 31 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 10% | 98% | |
| 24 | 61% | 88% | Median |
| 25 | 8% | 27% | |
| 26 | 15% | 19% | |
| 27 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 28 | 3% | 3% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 11% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 13% | 89% | |
| 19 | 15% | 76% | |
| 20 | 1.2% | 62% | |
| 21 | 58% | 61% | Median |
| 22 | 3% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 14% | 98.9% | |
| 9 | 71% | 85% | Median |
| 10 | 8% | 15% | |
| 11 | 7% | 7% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1.5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 3% | 98.5% | |
| 7 | 87% | 96% | Median |
| 8 | 6% | 9% | |
| 9 | 3% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 4 | 67% | 99.2% | Median |
| 5 | 14% | 33% | |
| 6 | 17% | 19% | |
| 7 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 60% | 99.7% | Median |
| 5 | 37% | 40% | |
| 6 | 2% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 14% | 100% | |
| 4 | 73% | 86% | Median |
| 5 | 13% | 13% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 5% | 100% | |
| 3 | 15% | 95% | |
| 4 | 22% | 81% | |
| 5 | 59% | 59% | Median |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 14% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 4 | 72% | 86% | Median |
| 5 | 14% | 14% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 20% | 100% | |
| 4 | 72% | 80% | Median |
| 5 | 7% | 7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 67% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 29% | 33% | Last Result |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16% | 100% | |
| 2 | 79% | 84% | Median |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 36% | 37% | |
| 3 | 0.9% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Belang van Nederland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 28% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 72% | 72% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 67 | 64 | 0% | 64–66 | 63–68 | 62–68 | 60–69 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging | 52 | 60 | 0% | 59–62 | 59–62 | 57–64 | 56–64 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 | 75 | 58 | 0% | 57–60 | 56–61 | 56–61 | 54–61 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 77 | 57 | 0% | 54–58 | 53–59 | 53–60 | 53–62 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 55 | 0% | 55–58 | 54–58 | 53–58 | 53–60 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 74 | 56 | 0% | 52–56 | 52–57 | 52–58 | 51–60 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 51 | 51 | 0% | 50–53 | 49–54 | 49–54 | 48–54 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 52 | 0% | 47–52 | 47–52 | 47–54 | 46–55 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie – Socialistische Partij | 70 | 44 | 0% | 43–47 | 43–48 | 42–48 | 41–48 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 78 | 42 | 0% | 42–44 | 40–45 | 39–45 | 38–48 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 50 | 40 | 0% | 40–42 | 39–42 | 38–44 | 34–45 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 61 | 39 | 0% | 39–43 | 39–43 | 38–44 | 37–44 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus | 61 | 36 | 0% | 36–40 | 36–40 | 36–41 | 34–43 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 73 | 38 | 0% | 37–40 | 36–41 | 36–41 | 34–43 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 60 | 36 | 0% | 36–40 | 36–40 | 36–41 | 34–43 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus | 58 | 35 | 0% | 34–38 | 34–38 | 34–39 | 32–41 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 56 | 35 | 0% | 35–38 | 35–39 | 34–39 | 32–40 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 57 | 35 | 0% | 34–38 | 34–38 | 34–39 | 32–41 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging | 18 | 33 | 0% | 32–36 | 32–36 | 31–39 | 31–39 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 37 | 32 | 0% | 32–35 | 32–36 | 32–36 | 31–36 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 49 | 31 | 0% | 30–33 | 29–33 | 29–35 | 27–36 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 32 | 28 | 0% | 28–31 | 28–32 | 27–32 | 27–32 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 39 | 11 | 0% | 11–13 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 9–14 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 61 | 1.2% | 98.8% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 63 | 3% | 97% | |
| 64 | 55% | 95% | Median |
| 65 | 16% | 40% | |
| 66 | 17% | 23% | |
| 67 | 0.7% | 6% | Last Result |
| 68 | 4% | 5% | |
| 69 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 58 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 59 | 15% | 95% | |
| 60 | 61% | 81% | Median |
| 61 | 6% | 20% | |
| 62 | 9% | 13% | |
| 63 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 64 | 3% | 3% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 56 | 5% | 98% | |
| 57 | 13% | 94% | |
| 58 | 60% | 80% | Median |
| 59 | 7% | 20% | |
| 60 | 5% | 14% | |
| 61 | 8% | 9% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 53 | 8% | 99.5% | |
| 54 | 4% | 92% | |
| 55 | 1.4% | 88% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 86% | |
| 57 | 59% | 86% | Median |
| 58 | 21% | 27% | |
| 59 | 2% | 6% | |
| 60 | 3% | 4% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 62 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 54 | 5% | 97% | |
| 55 | 54% | 92% | Median |
| 56 | 21% | 38% | |
| 57 | 7% | 17% | |
| 58 | 8% | 11% | |
| 59 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 60 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 52 | 11% | 99.3% | |
| 53 | 1.4% | 88% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 87% | |
| 55 | 6% | 86% | |
| 56 | 74% | 81% | Median |
| 57 | 2% | 6% | |
| 58 | 3% | 4% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 60 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 7% | 99.4% | |
| 50 | 12% | 92% | |
| 51 | 62% | 80% | Last Result, Median |
| 52 | 6% | 18% | |
| 53 | 6% | 12% | |
| 54 | 6% | 6% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 47 | 11% | 99.3% | |
| 48 | 1.4% | 88% | |
| 49 | 3% | 87% | |
| 50 | 3% | 84% | |
| 51 | 18% | 81% | |
| 52 | 58% | 63% | Median |
| 53 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 54 | 3% | 4% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie – Socialistische Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 2% | 98% | |
| 43 | 13% | 97% | |
| 44 | 63% | 83% | Median |
| 45 | 8% | 21% | |
| 46 | 1.3% | 12% | |
| 47 | 2% | 11% | |
| 48 | 9% | 9% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 40 | 5% | 95% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 42 | 59% | 91% | Median |
| 43 | 21% | 31% | |
| 44 | 5% | 11% | |
| 45 | 5% | 6% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 48 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 37 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
| 38 | 2% | 98% | |
| 39 | 2% | 96% | |
| 40 | 73% | 94% | Median |
| 41 | 8% | 21% | |
| 42 | 9% | 13% | |
| 43 | 2% | 4% | |
| 44 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 45 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 2% | 100% | |
| 38 | 2% | 98% | |
| 39 | 60% | 97% | Median |
| 40 | 5% | 37% | |
| 41 | 16% | 32% | |
| 42 | 5% | 16% | |
| 43 | 7% | 11% | |
| 44 | 4% | 4% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 34 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 36 | 69% | 98% | Median |
| 37 | 0.7% | 28% | |
| 38 | 1.4% | 27% | |
| 39 | 10% | 26% | |
| 40 | 12% | 16% | |
| 41 | 3% | 4% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 36 | 7% | 98% | |
| 37 | 7% | 91% | |
| 38 | 54% | 85% | Median |
| 39 | 16% | 30% | |
| 40 | 9% | 15% | |
| 41 | 4% | 6% | |
| 42 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 43 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 34 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 36 | 69% | 98% | Median |
| 37 | 0.8% | 28% | |
| 38 | 1.4% | 27% | |
| 39 | 10% | 26% | |
| 40 | 12% | 16% | |
| 41 | 3% | 4% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 34 | 8% | 98% | |
| 35 | 62% | 90% | Median |
| 36 | 1.4% | 28% | |
| 37 | 10% | 26% | |
| 38 | 12% | 16% | |
| 39 | 3% | 4% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 41 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 34 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 35 | 55% | 97% | Median |
| 36 | 9% | 41% | |
| 37 | 14% | 32% | |
| 38 | 9% | 18% | |
| 39 | 7% | 9% | |
| 40 | 2% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 34 | 8% | 98% | |
| 35 | 62% | 90% | Median |
| 36 | 1.5% | 28% | |
| 37 | 10% | 26% | |
| 38 | 12% | 16% | |
| 39 | 3% | 4% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 41 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 31 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 9% | 96% | |
| 33 | 63% | 86% | Median |
| 34 | 8% | 24% | |
| 35 | 1.1% | 15% | |
| 36 | 11% | 14% | |
| 37 | 0% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0% | 3% | |
| 39 | 3% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 64% | 99.4% | Median |
| 33 | 5% | 35% | |
| 34 | 15% | 31% | |
| 35 | 8% | 16% | |
| 36 | 8% | 8% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 29 | 8% | 98% | |
| 30 | 9% | 91% | |
| 31 | 54% | 82% | Median |
| 32 | 13% | 27% | |
| 33 | 10% | 15% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 35 | 3% | 4% | |
| 36 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 3% | 100% | |
| 28 | 55% | 97% | Median |
| 29 | 10% | 42% | |
| 30 | 19% | 32% | |
| 31 | 8% | 14% | |
| 32 | 5% | 6% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 11 | 63% | 98% | Median |
| 12 | 13% | 34% | |
| 13 | 17% | 22% | |
| 14 | 5% | 5% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Peil.nl
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 27–28 October 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 3000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.52%