Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 27–30 October 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.9% | 18.5% | 17.3–19.6% | 17.0–20.0% | 16.8–20.3% | 16.3–20.8% |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract | 0.0% | 17.2% | 16.1–18.3% | 15.8–18.6% | 15.5–18.9% | 15.0–19.5% |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 10.9% | 14.5% | 13.5–15.6% | 13.2–15.9% | 13.0–16.2% | 12.5–16.7% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 10.8% | 11.2% | 10.3–12.2% | 10.1–12.5% | 9.9–12.7% | 9.5–13.2% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1.0% | 7.9% | 7.2–8.7% | 7.0–9.0% | 6.8–9.2% | 6.4–9.6% |
| Democraten 66 | 15.0% | 5.2% | 4.6–6.0% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.3–6.3% | 4.1–6.7% |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.1–5.3% | 3.9–5.5% | 3.8–5.7% | 3.5–6.0% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 9.5% | 3.3% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.2% | 2.4–4.5% |
| Socialistische Partij | 6.0% | 3.3% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.2% | 2.4–4.5% |
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% | 1.8–3.7% |
| Forum voor Democratie | 5.0% | 2.7% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% | 1.8–3.7% |
| DENK | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% | 1.8–3.7% |
| Volt Europa | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.5–2.6% | 1.4–2.7% | 1.3–3.0% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.5–2.6% | 1.4–2.7% | 1.3–3.0% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.7% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% |
| Bij1 | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% |
| Belang van Nederland | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% | 0.0–0.6% |
| 50Plus | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% | 0.0–0.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 34 | 27 | 26–28 | 26–31 | 26–33 | 25–33 |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract | 0 | 24 | 24–28 | 24–29 | 24–30 | 23–31 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 17 | 24 | 21–24 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 18–25 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 17 | 20 | 16–21 | 16–21 | 15–21 | 15–21 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1 | 11 | 11–12 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 |
| Democraten 66 | 24 | 8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 6 | 6 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 15 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
| Socialistische Partij | 9 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| Forum voor Democratie | 8 | 4 | 3–4 | 2–5 | 2–6 | 2–6 |
| DENK | 3 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Volt Europa | 3 | 2 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 3 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Bij1 | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Belang van Nederland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 50Plus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 17% | 99.5% | |
| 27 | 58% | 83% | Median |
| 28 | 16% | 25% | |
| 29 | 2% | 9% | |
| 30 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 31 | 2% | 7% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 33 | 4% | 4% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 50% | 98.9% | Median |
| 25 | 2% | 49% | |
| 26 | 6% | 47% | |
| 27 | 16% | 41% | |
| 28 | 18% | 25% | |
| 29 | 4% | 7% | |
| 30 | 3% | 4% | |
| 31 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.8% | 98.7% | |
| 20 | 8% | 98% | |
| 21 | 13% | 90% | |
| 22 | 1.5% | 77% | |
| 23 | 21% | 76% | |
| 24 | 53% | 55% | Median |
| 25 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 15 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 16 | 23% | 97% | |
| 17 | 10% | 74% | Last Result |
| 18 | 13% | 64% | |
| 19 | 0.7% | 51% | |
| 20 | 2% | 50% | Median |
| 21 | 48% | 48% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 10 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 11 | 73% | 96% | Median |
| 12 | 14% | 23% | |
| 13 | 3% | 9% | |
| 14 | 5% | 6% | |
| 15 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 9% | 96% | |
| 7 | 6% | 87% | |
| 8 | 70% | 81% | Median |
| 9 | 11% | 12% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 58% | 95% | Last Result, Median |
| 7 | 10% | 37% | |
| 8 | 9% | 26% | |
| 9 | 18% | 18% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 13% | 100% | |
| 4 | 64% | 87% | Median |
| 5 | 14% | 24% | |
| 6 | 9% | 9% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 4 | 64% | 99.5% | Median |
| 5 | 30% | 35% | |
| 6 | 4% | 5% | |
| 7 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 19% | 98% | |
| 4 | 27% | 79% | |
| 5 | 52% | 52% | Last Result, Median |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 8% | 100% | |
| 3 | 10% | 92% | |
| 4 | 76% | 82% | Median |
| 5 | 2% | 6% | |
| 6 | 5% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 13% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 4 | 75% | 87% | Median |
| 5 | 6% | 12% | |
| 6 | 6% | 6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 63% | 97% | Median |
| 3 | 21% | 34% | Last Result |
| 4 | 13% | 13% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 22% | 92% | Last Result |
| 4 | 69% | 71% | Median |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 24% | 99.7% | |
| 2 | 65% | 75% | Median |
| 3 | 9% | 10% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 58% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 42% | 42% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Belang van Nederland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.7% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 1.3% | 1.3% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 67 | 66 | 0% | 63–68 | 63–70 | 63–71 | 63–71 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging | 52 | 62 | 0% | 60–62 | 59–65 | 59–67 | 59–67 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 | 75 | 59 | 0% | 56–59 | 53–61 | 53–65 | 53–65 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 55 | 0% | 52–56 | 51–57 | 51–61 | 51–61 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 77 | 59 | 0% | 53–60 | 53–60 | 53–60 | 53–61 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 51 | 51 | 0% | 48–51 | 47–52 | 47–57 | 47–57 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 74 | 56 | 0% | 49–56 | 49–56 | 49–56 | 49–58 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 52 | 0% | 45–52 | 45–53 | 45–53 | 45–53 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 78 | 44 | 0% | 41–46 | 41–48 | 41–48 | 41–49 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 50 | 42 | 0% | 40–46 | 40–47 | 40–47 | 40–49 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie | 70 | 45 | 0% | 42–45 | 38–45 | 38–45 | 38–49 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 73 | 39 | 0% | 37–43 | 37–44 | 37–45 | 37–45 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus | 61 | 39 | 0% | 37–42 | 37–42 | 37–43 | 36–43 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 60 | 39 | 0% | 37–42 | 37–42 | 37–43 | 36–43 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 61 | 40 | 0% | 37–41 | 34–41 | 34–41 | 33–43 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus | 58 | 35 | 0% | 33–39 | 33–40 | 33–40 | 33–40 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 57 | 35 | 0% | 33–39 | 33–40 | 33–40 | 33–40 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging | 18 | 35 | 0% | 32–35 | 32–36 | 31–38 | 29–38 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 56 | 36 | 0% | 33–36 | 30–36 | 30–37 | 30–40 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 49 | 31 | 0% | 29–34 | 29–35 | 29–37 | 29–37 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 37 | 33 | 0% | 29–33 | 28–33 | 26–33 | 25–35 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 32 | 28 | 0% | 25–28 | 24–29 | 24–29 | 21–32 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 39 | 12 | 0% | 11–13 | 10–15 | 10–15 | 10–15 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 17% | 100% | |
| 64 | 3% | 83% | |
| 65 | 4% | 79% | |
| 66 | 58% | 75% | Median |
| 67 | 3% | 17% | Last Result |
| 68 | 5% | 14% | |
| 69 | 1.1% | 9% | |
| 70 | 4% | 8% | |
| 71 | 3% | 4% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 59 | 7% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 20% | 93% | |
| 61 | 7% | 73% | |
| 62 | 55% | 65% | Median |
| 63 | 0.6% | 10% | |
| 64 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 65 | 3% | 8% | |
| 66 | 2% | 5% | |
| 67 | 3% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 53 | 6% | 99.7% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 55 | 2% | 93% | |
| 56 | 6% | 91% | |
| 57 | 19% | 85% | |
| 58 | 9% | 66% | |
| 59 | 49% | 57% | Median |
| 60 | 2% | 8% | |
| 61 | 3% | 6% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 63 | 0% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 65 | 3% | 3% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 51 | 8% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 11% | 91% | |
| 53 | 3% | 80% | |
| 54 | 9% | 77% | |
| 55 | 53% | 68% | Median |
| 56 | 7% | 16% | |
| 57 | 4% | 9% | |
| 58 | 2% | 5% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 61 | 3% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 14% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 0.8% | 86% | |
| 55 | 6% | 85% | |
| 56 | 11% | 79% | |
| 57 | 3% | 68% | |
| 58 | 7% | 65% | |
| 59 | 9% | 58% | Median |
| 60 | 48% | 49% | |
| 61 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 47 | 9% | 99.7% | |
| 48 | 1.1% | 91% | |
| 49 | 25% | 90% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 65% | |
| 51 | 59% | 65% | Last Result, Median |
| 52 | 2% | 6% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 57 | 3% | 3% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 11% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 3% | 89% | |
| 51 | 4% | 86% | |
| 52 | 4% | 82% | |
| 53 | 11% | 78% | |
| 54 | 1.5% | 67% | |
| 55 | 8% | 66% | Median |
| 56 | 56% | 57% | |
| 57 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 11% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 89% | |
| 47 | 3% | 88% | |
| 48 | 6% | 85% | |
| 49 | 7% | 80% | |
| 50 | 7% | 72% | |
| 51 | 10% | 66% | Median |
| 52 | 48% | 56% | |
| 53 | 7% | 7% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 20% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 2% | 80% | |
| 43 | 8% | 77% | |
| 44 | 56% | 69% | Median |
| 45 | 1.2% | 13% | |
| 46 | 5% | 12% | |
| 47 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 48 | 5% | 6% | |
| 49 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 11% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 89% | |
| 42 | 49% | 89% | Median |
| 43 | 11% | 40% | |
| 44 | 5% | 29% | |
| 45 | 14% | 24% | |
| 46 | 4% | 11% | |
| 47 | 5% | 7% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 49 | 2% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 7% | 100% | |
| 39 | 1.1% | 93% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 42 | 12% | 91% | |
| 43 | 18% | 79% | |
| 44 | 6% | 61% | |
| 45 | 53% | 55% | Median |
| 46 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 37 | 17% | 99.7% | |
| 38 | 5% | 82% | |
| 39 | 53% | 77% | Median |
| 40 | 6% | 25% | |
| 41 | 6% | 19% | |
| 42 | 3% | 13% | |
| 43 | 5% | 11% | |
| 44 | 2% | 6% | |
| 45 | 4% | 4% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 2% | 100% | |
| 37 | 12% | 98% | |
| 38 | 11% | 85% | |
| 39 | 54% | 74% | Median |
| 40 | 5% | 20% | |
| 41 | 2% | 15% | |
| 42 | 9% | 13% | |
| 43 | 4% | 4% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 2% | 100% | |
| 37 | 12% | 98% | |
| 38 | 12% | 85% | |
| 39 | 53% | 73% | Median |
| 40 | 5% | 20% | |
| 41 | 2% | 15% | |
| 42 | 9% | 13% | |
| 43 | 4% | 4% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 8% | 99.0% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 36 | 0.9% | 91% | |
| 37 | 5% | 90% | |
| 38 | 22% | 85% | |
| 39 | 10% | 63% | |
| 40 | 3% | 53% | |
| 41 | 48% | 50% | Median |
| 42 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 43 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 13% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 1.2% | 87% | |
| 35 | 64% | 85% | Median |
| 36 | 3% | 22% | |
| 37 | 4% | 19% | |
| 38 | 4% | 15% | |
| 39 | 5% | 11% | |
| 40 | 6% | 6% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 13% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 1.2% | 87% | |
| 35 | 64% | 85% | Median |
| 36 | 4% | 22% | |
| 37 | 3% | 18% | |
| 38 | 4% | 15% | |
| 39 | 5% | 11% | |
| 40 | 5% | 6% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 29 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 31 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 32 | 12% | 97% | |
| 33 | 5% | 85% | |
| 34 | 22% | 80% | |
| 35 | 52% | 58% | Median |
| 36 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 37 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 38 | 3% | 3% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 7% | 100% | |
| 31 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 32 | 1.1% | 91% | |
| 33 | 3% | 90% | |
| 34 | 22% | 87% | |
| 35 | 6% | 66% | |
| 36 | 56% | 60% | Median |
| 37 | 3% | 4% | |
| 38 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 40 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 11% | 100% | |
| 30 | 3% | 89% | |
| 31 | 57% | 86% | Median |
| 32 | 4% | 29% | |
| 33 | 9% | 25% | |
| 34 | 9% | 16% | |
| 35 | 2% | 7% | |
| 36 | 2% | 5% | |
| 37 | 3% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 28 | 6% | 97% | |
| 29 | 6% | 91% | |
| 30 | 20% | 85% | |
| 31 | 6% | 64% | |
| 32 | 6% | 59% | |
| 33 | 52% | 53% | Median |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 24 | 8% | 98.7% | |
| 25 | 4% | 91% | |
| 26 | 16% | 86% | |
| 27 | 7% | 70% | |
| 28 | 55% | 63% | Median |
| 29 | 7% | 8% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 6% | 100% | |
| 11 | 20% | 94% | |
| 12 | 58% | 74% | Median |
| 13 | 7% | 16% | |
| 14 | 4% | 9% | |
| 15 | 5% | 6% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): EenVandaag
- Fieldwork period: 27–30 October 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1924
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.14%