Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 27–30 October 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie |
21.9% |
18.5% |
17.3–19.6% |
17.0–20.0% |
16.8–20.3% |
16.3–20.8% |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract |
0.0% |
17.2% |
16.1–18.3% |
15.8–18.6% |
15.5–18.9% |
15.0–19.5% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid |
10.9% |
14.5% |
13.5–15.6% |
13.2–15.9% |
13.0–16.2% |
12.5–16.7% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid |
10.8% |
11.2% |
10.3–12.2% |
10.1–12.5% |
9.9–12.7% |
9.5–13.2% |
BoerBurgerBeweging |
1.0% |
7.9% |
7.2–8.7% |
7.0–9.0% |
6.8–9.2% |
6.4–9.6% |
Democraten 66 |
15.0% |
5.2% |
4.6–6.0% |
4.5–6.2% |
4.3–6.3% |
4.1–6.7% |
Partij voor de Dieren |
3.8% |
4.6% |
4.1–5.3% |
3.9–5.5% |
3.8–5.7% |
3.5–6.0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
9.5% |
3.3% |
2.8–3.9% |
2.7–4.0% |
2.6–4.2% |
2.4–4.5% |
Socialistische Partij |
6.0% |
3.3% |
2.8–3.9% |
2.7–4.0% |
2.6–4.2% |
2.4–4.5% |
ChristenUnie |
3.4% |
2.7% |
2.2–3.2% |
2.1–3.3% |
2.0–3.5% |
1.8–3.7% |
Forum voor Democratie |
5.0% |
2.7% |
2.2–3.2% |
2.1–3.3% |
2.0–3.5% |
1.8–3.7% |
DENK |
2.0% |
2.7% |
2.2–3.2% |
2.1–3.3% |
2.0–3.5% |
1.8–3.7% |
Volt Europa |
2.4% |
2.0% |
1.6–2.5% |
1.5–2.6% |
1.4–2.7% |
1.3–3.0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
2.1% |
2.0% |
1.6–2.5% |
1.5–2.6% |
1.4–2.7% |
1.3–3.0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 |
2.4% |
1.3% |
1.0–1.7% |
0.9–1.8% |
0.9–1.9% |
0.8–2.1% |
Bij1 |
0.8% |
0.7% |
0.5–1.0% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.4–1.2% |
0.3–1.3% |
Belang van Nederland |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1–0.4% |
0.1–0.4% |
0.0–0.5% |
0.0–0.6% |
50Plus |
1.0% |
0.2% |
0.1–0.4% |
0.1–0.4% |
0.0–0.5% |
0.0–0.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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Confidence Intervals
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
17% |
99.5% |
|
27 |
58% |
83% |
Median |
28 |
16% |
25% |
|
29 |
2% |
9% |
|
30 |
0.8% |
7% |
|
31 |
2% |
7% |
|
32 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
33 |
4% |
4% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
50% |
98.9% |
Median |
25 |
2% |
49% |
|
26 |
6% |
47% |
|
27 |
16% |
41% |
|
28 |
18% |
25% |
|
29 |
4% |
7% |
|
30 |
3% |
4% |
|
31 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
18 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.8% |
98.7% |
|
20 |
8% |
98% |
|
21 |
13% |
90% |
|
22 |
1.5% |
77% |
|
23 |
21% |
76% |
|
24 |
53% |
55% |
Median |
25 |
1.0% |
1.3% |
|
26 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
15 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
16 |
23% |
97% |
|
17 |
10% |
74% |
Last Result |
18 |
13% |
64% |
|
19 |
0.7% |
51% |
|
20 |
2% |
50% |
Median |
21 |
48% |
48% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
10 |
4% |
99.7% |
|
11 |
73% |
96% |
Median |
12 |
14% |
23% |
|
13 |
3% |
9% |
|
14 |
5% |
6% |
|
15 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
4% |
100% |
|
6 |
9% |
96% |
|
7 |
6% |
87% |
|
8 |
70% |
81% |
Median |
9 |
11% |
12% |
|
10 |
0.7% |
1.1% |
|
11 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
5% |
100% |
|
6 |
58% |
95% |
Last Result, Median |
7 |
10% |
37% |
|
8 |
9% |
26% |
|
9 |
18% |
18% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
13% |
100% |
|
4 |
64% |
87% |
Median |
5 |
14% |
24% |
|
6 |
9% |
9% |
|
7 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
4 |
64% |
99.5% |
Median |
5 |
30% |
35% |
|
6 |
4% |
5% |
|
7 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
2% |
100% |
|
3 |
19% |
98% |
|
4 |
27% |
79% |
|
5 |
52% |
52% |
Last Result, Median |
6 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
8% |
100% |
|
3 |
10% |
92% |
|
4 |
76% |
82% |
Median |
5 |
2% |
6% |
|
6 |
5% |
5% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
3 |
13% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
4 |
75% |
87% |
Median |
5 |
6% |
12% |
|
6 |
6% |
6% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
3% |
100% |
|
2 |
63% |
97% |
Median |
3 |
21% |
34% |
Last Result |
4 |
13% |
13% |
|
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
8% |
99.9% |
|
3 |
22% |
92% |
Last Result |
4 |
69% |
71% |
Median |
5 |
2% |
2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
1 |
24% |
99.7% |
|
2 |
65% |
75% |
Median |
3 |
9% |
10% |
Last Result |
4 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
58% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
42% |
42% |
Last Result |
2 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Belang van Nederland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98.7% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98.7% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
67 |
66 |
0% |
63–68 |
63–70 |
63–71 |
63–71 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging |
52 |
62 |
0% |
60–62 |
59–65 |
59–67 |
59–67 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 |
75 |
59 |
0% |
56–59 |
53–61 |
53–65 |
53–65 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
55 |
0% |
52–56 |
51–57 |
51–61 |
51–61 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
77 |
59 |
0% |
53–60 |
53–60 |
53–60 |
53–61 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid |
51 |
51 |
0% |
48–51 |
47–52 |
47–57 |
47–57 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
74 |
56 |
0% |
49–56 |
49–56 |
49–56 |
49–58 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
52 |
0% |
45–52 |
45–53 |
45–53 |
45–53 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
78 |
44 |
0% |
41–46 |
41–48 |
41–48 |
41–49 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
50 |
42 |
0% |
40–46 |
40–47 |
40–47 |
40–49 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie |
70 |
45 |
0% |
42–45 |
38–45 |
38–45 |
38–49 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
73 |
39 |
0% |
37–43 |
37–44 |
37–45 |
37–45 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus |
61 |
39 |
0% |
37–42 |
37–42 |
37–43 |
36–43 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
60 |
39 |
0% |
37–42 |
37–42 |
37–43 |
36–43 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
61 |
40 |
0% |
37–41 |
34–41 |
34–41 |
33–43 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus |
58 |
35 |
0% |
33–39 |
33–40 |
33–40 |
33–40 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
57 |
35 |
0% |
33–39 |
33–40 |
33–40 |
33–40 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging |
18 |
35 |
0% |
32–35 |
32–36 |
31–38 |
29–38 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
56 |
36 |
0% |
33–36 |
30–36 |
30–37 |
30–40 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
49 |
31 |
0% |
29–34 |
29–35 |
29–37 |
29–37 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
37 |
33 |
0% |
29–33 |
28–33 |
26–33 |
25–35 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
32 |
28 |
0% |
25–28 |
24–29 |
24–29 |
21–32 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
39 |
12 |
0% |
11–13 |
10–15 |
10–15 |
10–15 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
63 |
17% |
100% |
|
64 |
3% |
83% |
|
65 |
4% |
79% |
|
66 |
58% |
75% |
Median |
67 |
3% |
17% |
Last Result |
68 |
5% |
14% |
|
69 |
1.1% |
9% |
|
70 |
4% |
8% |
|
71 |
3% |
4% |
|
72 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
73 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
100% |
|
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
59 |
7% |
99.8% |
|
60 |
20% |
93% |
|
61 |
7% |
73% |
|
62 |
55% |
65% |
Median |
63 |
0.6% |
10% |
|
64 |
1.2% |
9% |
|
65 |
3% |
8% |
|
66 |
2% |
5% |
|
67 |
3% |
3% |
|
68 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
69 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
53 |
6% |
99.7% |
|
54 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
55 |
2% |
93% |
|
56 |
6% |
91% |
|
57 |
19% |
85% |
|
58 |
9% |
66% |
|
59 |
49% |
57% |
Median |
60 |
2% |
8% |
|
61 |
3% |
6% |
|
62 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
63 |
0% |
3% |
|
64 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
65 |
3% |
3% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
50 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
51 |
8% |
99.7% |
|
52 |
11% |
91% |
|
53 |
3% |
80% |
|
54 |
9% |
77% |
|
55 |
53% |
68% |
Median |
56 |
7% |
16% |
|
57 |
4% |
9% |
|
58 |
2% |
5% |
|
59 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
60 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
61 |
3% |
3% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
51 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
52 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
53 |
14% |
99.8% |
|
54 |
0.8% |
86% |
|
55 |
6% |
85% |
|
56 |
11% |
79% |
|
57 |
3% |
68% |
|
58 |
7% |
65% |
|
59 |
9% |
58% |
Median |
60 |
48% |
49% |
|
61 |
0.9% |
1.4% |
|
62 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
45 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
46 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
47 |
9% |
99.7% |
|
48 |
1.1% |
91% |
|
49 |
25% |
90% |
|
50 |
0.6% |
65% |
|
51 |
59% |
65% |
Last Result, Median |
52 |
2% |
6% |
|
53 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
54 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
56 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
57 |
3% |
3% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
48 |
0% |
100% |
|
49 |
11% |
99.9% |
|
50 |
3% |
89% |
|
51 |
4% |
86% |
|
52 |
4% |
82% |
|
53 |
11% |
78% |
|
54 |
1.5% |
67% |
|
55 |
8% |
66% |
Median |
56 |
56% |
57% |
|
57 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
58 |
0.5% |
0.9% |
|
59 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
60 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
44 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
45 |
11% |
99.9% |
|
46 |
0.7% |
89% |
|
47 |
3% |
88% |
|
48 |
6% |
85% |
|
49 |
7% |
80% |
|
50 |
7% |
72% |
|
51 |
10% |
66% |
Median |
52 |
48% |
56% |
|
53 |
7% |
7% |
|
54 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
55 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
56 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
40 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
41 |
20% |
99.9% |
|
42 |
2% |
80% |
|
43 |
8% |
77% |
|
44 |
56% |
69% |
Median |
45 |
1.2% |
13% |
|
46 |
5% |
12% |
|
47 |
1.1% |
7% |
|
48 |
5% |
6% |
|
49 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
50 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
40 |
11% |
100% |
|
41 |
0.4% |
89% |
|
42 |
49% |
89% |
Median |
43 |
11% |
40% |
|
44 |
5% |
29% |
|
45 |
14% |
24% |
|
46 |
4% |
11% |
|
47 |
5% |
7% |
|
48 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
49 |
2% |
2% |
|
50 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
38 |
7% |
100% |
|
39 |
1.1% |
93% |
|
40 |
0.3% |
91% |
|
41 |
0.2% |
91% |
|
42 |
12% |
91% |
|
43 |
18% |
79% |
|
44 |
6% |
61% |
|
45 |
53% |
55% |
Median |
46 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
47 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
|
48 |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
49 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
36 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
37 |
17% |
99.7% |
|
38 |
5% |
82% |
|
39 |
53% |
77% |
Median |
40 |
6% |
25% |
|
41 |
6% |
19% |
|
42 |
3% |
13% |
|
43 |
5% |
11% |
|
44 |
2% |
6% |
|
45 |
4% |
4% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
36 |
2% |
100% |
|
37 |
12% |
98% |
|
38 |
11% |
85% |
|
39 |
54% |
74% |
Median |
40 |
5% |
20% |
|
41 |
2% |
15% |
|
42 |
9% |
13% |
|
43 |
4% |
4% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
45 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
36 |
2% |
100% |
|
37 |
12% |
98% |
|
38 |
12% |
85% |
|
39 |
53% |
73% |
Median |
40 |
5% |
20% |
|
41 |
2% |
15% |
|
42 |
9% |
13% |
|
43 |
4% |
4% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
45 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
34 |
8% |
99.0% |
|
35 |
0.3% |
91% |
|
36 |
0.9% |
91% |
|
37 |
5% |
90% |
|
38 |
22% |
85% |
|
39 |
10% |
63% |
|
40 |
3% |
53% |
|
41 |
48% |
50% |
Median |
42 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
43 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
33 |
13% |
99.9% |
|
34 |
1.2% |
87% |
|
35 |
64% |
85% |
Median |
36 |
3% |
22% |
|
37 |
4% |
19% |
|
38 |
4% |
15% |
|
39 |
5% |
11% |
|
40 |
6% |
6% |
|
41 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
33 |
13% |
99.9% |
|
34 |
1.2% |
87% |
|
35 |
64% |
85% |
Median |
36 |
4% |
22% |
|
37 |
3% |
18% |
|
38 |
4% |
15% |
|
39 |
5% |
11% |
|
40 |
5% |
6% |
|
41 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
29 |
1.2% |
99.8% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
31 |
2% |
98.5% |
|
32 |
12% |
97% |
|
33 |
5% |
85% |
|
34 |
22% |
80% |
|
35 |
52% |
58% |
Median |
36 |
1.3% |
5% |
|
37 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
38 |
3% |
3% |
|
39 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
7% |
100% |
|
31 |
1.4% |
93% |
|
32 |
1.1% |
91% |
|
33 |
3% |
90% |
|
34 |
22% |
87% |
|
35 |
6% |
66% |
|
36 |
56% |
60% |
Median |
37 |
3% |
4% |
|
38 |
0.6% |
1.3% |
|
39 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
40 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
11% |
100% |
|
30 |
3% |
89% |
|
31 |
57% |
86% |
Median |
32 |
4% |
29% |
|
33 |
9% |
25% |
|
34 |
9% |
16% |
|
35 |
2% |
7% |
|
36 |
2% |
5% |
|
37 |
3% |
3% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
1.4% |
98.9% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
28 |
6% |
97% |
|
29 |
6% |
91% |
|
30 |
20% |
85% |
|
31 |
6% |
64% |
|
32 |
6% |
59% |
|
33 |
52% |
53% |
Median |
34 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
35 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
98.9% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
24 |
8% |
98.7% |
|
25 |
4% |
91% |
|
26 |
16% |
86% |
|
27 |
7% |
70% |
|
28 |
55% |
63% |
Median |
29 |
7% |
8% |
|
30 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
32 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
Last Result |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
6% |
100% |
|
11 |
20% |
94% |
|
12 |
58% |
74% |
Median |
13 |
7% |
16% |
|
14 |
4% |
9% |
|
15 |
5% |
6% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): EenVandaag
- Fieldwork period: 27–30 October 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1924
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.14%