Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 6–7 November 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract | 0.0% | 18.5% | 17.5–19.6% | 17.2–19.9% | 16.9–20.2% | 16.4–20.7% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.9% | 16.5% | 15.5–17.5% | 15.2–17.8% | 15.0–18.1% | 14.5–18.6% |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 10.9% | 15.5% | 14.5–16.5% | 14.3–16.8% | 14.0–17.1% | 13.6–17.6% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 10.8% | 11.2% | 10.4–12.1% | 10.2–12.4% | 10.0–12.6% | 9.6–13.1% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1.0% | 5.3% | 4.8–6.0% | 4.6–6.2% | 4.5–6.4% | 4.2–6.7% |
| Democraten 66 | 15.0% | 5.1% | 4.5–5.7% | 4.4–5.9% | 4.2–6.1% | 4.0–6.4% |
| Socialistische Partij | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.3–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.0–5.2% |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.3–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.0–5.2% |
| Volt Europa | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.9–3.9% | 2.8–4.1% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.5% |
| Forum voor Democratie | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.8–3.7% | 2.6–3.9% | 2.5–4.0% | 2.3–4.3% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 9.5% | 2.8% | 2.4–3.3% | 2.3–3.4% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.0–3.8% |
| DENK | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.2–3.1% | 2.1–3.2% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.8–3.6% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.1–3.0% | 2.0–3.1% | 1.9–3.2% | 1.7–3.5% |
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.4% | 1.5–2.5% | 1.4–2.6% | 1.3–2.9% |
| Belang van Nederland | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.8–1.3% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.7–1.2% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.6% |
| Bij1 | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.3–1.0% | 0.3–1.2% |
| 50Plus | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.3–1.0% | 0.3–1.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract | 0 | 30 | 26–30 | 26–30 | 26–30 | 26–30 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 34 | 26 | 24–27 | 24–27 | 24–28 | 22–30 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 17 | 24 | 23–27 | 23–27 | 23–27 | 22–27 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 17 | 16 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 16–20 | 15–20 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1 | 9 | 8–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–10 |
| Democraten 66 | 24 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| Socialistische Partij | 9 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 6 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| Volt Europa | 3 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Forum voor Democratie | 8 | 6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 15 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| DENK | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Belang van Nederland | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 3 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Bij1 | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 50Plus | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 15% | 99.5% | |
| 27 | 2% | 84% | |
| 28 | 22% | 82% | |
| 29 | 5% | 60% | |
| 30 | 54% | 55% | Median |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 1.1% | 98.8% | |
| 24 | 26% | 98% | |
| 25 | 12% | 72% | |
| 26 | 10% | 60% | Median |
| 27 | 47% | 50% | |
| 28 | 2% | 3% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 32 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 22 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 21% | 98% | |
| 24 | 52% | 77% | Median |
| 25 | 12% | 25% | |
| 26 | 1.5% | 13% | |
| 27 | 12% | 12% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 57% | 99.4% | Median |
| 17 | 2% | 42% | Last Result |
| 18 | 22% | 40% | |
| 19 | 14% | 18% | |
| 20 | 4% | 4% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 7% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 39% | 93% | |
| 9 | 52% | 54% | Median |
| 10 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 50% | 100% | |
| 7 | 19% | 50% | Median |
| 8 | 14% | 31% | |
| 9 | 17% | 17% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 5 | 72% | 99.5% | Median |
| 6 | 23% | 28% | |
| 7 | 5% | 5% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 5 | 12% | 99.4% | |
| 6 | 51% | 87% | Last Result, Median |
| 7 | 34% | 36% | |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 31% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 65% | 69% | Median |
| 6 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 4 | 27% | 99.5% | |
| 5 | 11% | 73% | |
| 6 | 59% | 61% | Median |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 13% | 98.7% | |
| 4 | 68% | 86% | Median |
| 5 | 17% | 18% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 52% | 99.7% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 43% | 48% | |
| 5 | 6% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 14% | 100% | |
| 3 | 9% | 86% | Last Result |
| 4 | 73% | 77% | Median |
| 5 | 4% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 2 | 21% | 99.4% | |
| 3 | 76% | 78% | Median |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Belang van Nederland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 91% | 96% | Median |
| 2 | 5% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 100% | |
| 1 | 83% | 89% | Median |
| 2 | 6% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 68% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 32% | 32% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 71% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 29% | 29% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 67 | 64 | 0% | 60–64 | 59–64 | 59–65 | 57–66 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging | 52 | 60 | 0% | 55–60 | 55–60 | 55–61 | 53–63 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 | 75 | 57 | 0% | 56–59 | 56–59 | 55–60 | 52–61 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 77 | 57 | 0% | 54–57 | 52–57 | 52–57 | 52–60 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 55 | 0% | 52–56 | 51–56 | 51–56 | 49–58 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 74 | 53 | 0% | 50–54 | 48–54 | 48–54 | 48–57 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 51 | 51 | 0% | 47–52 | 47–52 | 47–53 | 45–54 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 47 | 0% | 46–48 | 43–48 | 43–50 | 43–53 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 70 | 42 | 0% | 42–46 | 42–46 | 41–46 | 41–46 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 78 | 40 | 0% | 38–41 | 38–41 | 37–41 | 37–45 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus | 61 | 39 | 0% | 37–41 | 37–41 | 36–41 | 35–43 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 60 | 38 | 0% | 37–41 | 36–41 | 36–41 | 34–42 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 61 | 37 | 0% | 37–40 | 36–40 | 36–40 | 35–41 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 50 | 39 | 0% | 35–40 | 35–40 | 35–40 | 35–43 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 73 | 37 | 0% | 35–38 | 35–38 | 35–38 | 34–42 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 56 | 34 | 0% | 34–38 | 33–38 | 33–38 | 33–38 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus | 58 | 36 | 0% | 33–37 | 33–37 | 33–37 | 32–39 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 57 | 35 | 0% | 33–37 | 32–37 | 32–37 | 31–38 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging | 18 | 33 | 0% | 31–35 | 30–35 | 30–35 | 29–35 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 37 | 31 | 0% | 30–33 | 29–33 | 29–33 | 28–33 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 49 | 30 | 0% | 27–31 | 27–31 | 27–31 | 27–34 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 32 | 28 | 0% | 28–31 | 26–31 | 26–31 | 26–31 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 39 | 10 | 0% | 10–14 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 9–14 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 59 | 6% | 98% | |
| 60 | 23% | 92% | |
| 61 | 2% | 69% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 66% | |
| 63 | 2% | 66% | Median |
| 64 | 61% | 64% | |
| 65 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 66 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 53 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 55 | 17% | 98% | |
| 56 | 6% | 81% | |
| 57 | 9% | 75% | |
| 58 | 0.9% | 66% | |
| 59 | 1.4% | 65% | Median |
| 60 | 61% | 64% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 62 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 63 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 54 | 1.2% | 98.8% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98% | |
| 56 | 24% | 96% | |
| 57 | 53% | 72% | Median |
| 58 | 0.5% | 19% | |
| 59 | 15% | 18% | |
| 60 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 61 | 2% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 52 | 7% | 99.7% | |
| 53 | 2% | 93% | |
| 54 | 4% | 91% | |
| 55 | 20% | 87% | |
| 56 | 15% | 67% | Median |
| 57 | 50% | 52% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 50 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 51 | 3% | 98% | |
| 52 | 26% | 95% | |
| 53 | 1.3% | 69% | |
| 54 | 3% | 68% | Median |
| 55 | 50% | 65% | |
| 56 | 13% | 15% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 58 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 50 | 5% | 93% | |
| 51 | 20% | 88% | |
| 52 | 2% | 67% | Median |
| 53 | 49% | 65% | |
| 54 | 15% | 16% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 45 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 47 | 17% | 98% | |
| 48 | 3% | 81% | |
| 49 | 11% | 78% | |
| 50 | 2% | 67% | Median |
| 51 | 50% | 65% | Last Result |
| 52 | 12% | 15% | |
| 53 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 54 | 2% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 9% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 46 | 4% | 90% | Median |
| 47 | 68% | 87% | |
| 48 | 14% | 19% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 50 | 4% | 5% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 53 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 41 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 48% | 97% | |
| 43 | 4% | 48% | Median |
| 44 | 8% | 44% | |
| 45 | 23% | 36% | |
| 46 | 12% | 13% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 37 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 20% | 97% | |
| 39 | 8% | 77% | |
| 40 | 51% | 69% | Median |
| 41 | 17% | 18% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 1.4% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 37 | 25% | 97% | |
| 38 | 20% | 72% | |
| 39 | 3% | 52% | |
| 40 | 0.6% | 49% | Median |
| 41 | 47% | 48% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 36 | 8% | 98% | |
| 37 | 36% | 90% | |
| 38 | 6% | 55% | |
| 39 | 0.7% | 49% | |
| 40 | 0.9% | 48% | Median |
| 41 | 47% | 47% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 4% | 99.1% | |
| 37 | 53% | 95% | |
| 38 | 2% | 42% | Median |
| 39 | 12% | 40% | |
| 40 | 28% | 28% | |
| 41 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 11% | 99.6% | |
| 36 | 4% | 89% | |
| 37 | 30% | 85% | |
| 38 | 1.0% | 55% | |
| 39 | 5% | 54% | Median |
| 40 | 47% | 49% | |
| 41 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 35 | 10% | 98.6% | |
| 36 | 19% | 89% | |
| 37 | 48% | 70% | Median |
| 38 | 20% | 22% | |
| 39 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 49% | 94% | |
| 35 | 5% | 45% | Median |
| 36 | 7% | 40% | |
| 37 | 21% | 33% | |
| 38 | 12% | 12% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 33 | 27% | 98% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 71% | |
| 35 | 11% | 71% | |
| 36 | 12% | 60% | Median |
| 37 | 47% | 48% | |
| 38 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 41 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 8% | 98.7% | |
| 33 | 20% | 91% | |
| 34 | 8% | 71% | |
| 35 | 14% | 63% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 48% | Median |
| 37 | 47% | 48% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 41 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 5% | 99.2% | |
| 31 | 19% | 95% | |
| 32 | 3% | 75% | |
| 33 | 55% | 72% | Median |
| 34 | 5% | 17% | |
| 35 | 13% | 13% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 6% | 98.8% | |
| 30 | 4% | 93% | |
| 31 | 76% | 89% | Median |
| 32 | 0.8% | 13% | |
| 33 | 12% | 12% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 27 | 11% | 99.5% | |
| 28 | 0.9% | 89% | |
| 29 | 31% | 88% | |
| 30 | 8% | 57% | Median |
| 31 | 47% | 49% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 26 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 4% | 95% | |
| 28 | 74% | 91% | Median |
| 29 | 4% | 17% | |
| 30 | 1.0% | 13% | |
| 31 | 12% | 12% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 10 | 53% | 98.7% | |
| 11 | 23% | 46% | Median |
| 12 | 5% | 23% | |
| 13 | 0.9% | 17% | |
| 14 | 17% | 17% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: I&O Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 6–7 November 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 2190
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.26%