Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 6–7 November 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract |
0.0% |
18.5% |
17.5–19.6% |
17.2–19.9% |
16.9–20.2% |
16.4–20.7% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie |
21.9% |
16.5% |
15.5–17.5% |
15.2–17.8% |
15.0–18.1% |
14.5–18.6% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid |
10.9% |
15.5% |
14.5–16.5% |
14.3–16.8% |
14.0–17.1% |
13.6–17.6% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid |
10.8% |
11.2% |
10.4–12.1% |
10.2–12.4% |
10.0–12.6% |
9.6–13.1% |
BoerBurgerBeweging |
1.0% |
5.3% |
4.8–6.0% |
4.6–6.2% |
4.5–6.4% |
4.2–6.7% |
Democraten 66 |
15.0% |
5.1% |
4.5–5.7% |
4.4–5.9% |
4.2–6.1% |
4.0–6.4% |
Socialistische Partij |
6.0% |
4.0% |
3.5–4.6% |
3.3–4.7% |
3.2–4.9% |
3.0–5.2% |
Partij voor de Dieren |
3.8% |
4.0% |
3.5–4.6% |
3.3–4.7% |
3.2–4.9% |
3.0–5.2% |
Volt Europa |
2.4% |
3.4% |
2.9–3.9% |
2.8–4.1% |
2.7–4.2% |
2.5–4.5% |
Forum voor Democratie |
5.0% |
3.2% |
2.8–3.7% |
2.6–3.9% |
2.5–4.0% |
2.3–4.3% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
9.5% |
2.8% |
2.4–3.3% |
2.3–3.4% |
2.2–3.6% |
2.0–3.8% |
DENK |
2.0% |
2.6% |
2.2–3.1% |
2.1–3.2% |
2.0–3.4% |
1.8–3.6% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
2.1% |
2.5% |
2.1–3.0% |
2.0–3.1% |
1.9–3.2% |
1.7–3.5% |
ChristenUnie |
3.4% |
2.0% |
1.6–2.4% |
1.5–2.5% |
1.4–2.6% |
1.3–2.9% |
Belang van Nederland |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.8–1.3% |
0.7–1.4% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.7% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 |
2.4% |
0.9% |
0.7–1.2% |
0.6–1.3% |
0.6–1.4% |
0.5–1.6% |
Bij1 |
0.8% |
0.6% |
0.4–0.9% |
0.4–0.9% |
0.3–1.0% |
0.3–1.2% |
50Plus |
1.0% |
0.6% |
0.4–0.9% |
0.4–0.9% |
0.3–1.0% |
0.3–1.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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Confidence Intervals
Nieuw Sociaal Contract
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
15% |
99.5% |
|
27 |
2% |
84% |
|
28 |
22% |
82% |
|
29 |
5% |
60% |
|
30 |
54% |
55% |
Median |
31 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
32 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
23 |
1.1% |
98.8% |
|
24 |
26% |
98% |
|
25 |
12% |
72% |
|
26 |
10% |
60% |
Median |
27 |
47% |
50% |
|
28 |
2% |
3% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
31 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
32 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
23 |
21% |
98% |
|
24 |
52% |
77% |
Median |
25 |
12% |
25% |
|
26 |
1.5% |
13% |
|
27 |
12% |
12% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
57% |
99.4% |
Median |
17 |
2% |
42% |
Last Result |
18 |
22% |
40% |
|
19 |
14% |
18% |
|
20 |
4% |
4% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
7 |
7% |
99.8% |
|
8 |
39% |
93% |
|
9 |
52% |
54% |
Median |
10 |
1.1% |
1.3% |
|
11 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
50% |
100% |
|
7 |
19% |
50% |
Median |
8 |
14% |
31% |
|
9 |
17% |
17% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
5 |
72% |
99.5% |
Median |
6 |
23% |
28% |
|
7 |
5% |
5% |
|
8 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
5 |
12% |
99.4% |
|
6 |
51% |
87% |
Last Result, Median |
7 |
34% |
36% |
|
8 |
2% |
2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
31% |
99.8% |
|
5 |
65% |
69% |
Median |
6 |
1.4% |
4% |
|
7 |
2% |
2% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
4 |
27% |
99.5% |
|
5 |
11% |
73% |
|
6 |
59% |
61% |
Median |
7 |
2% |
2% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
3 |
13% |
98.7% |
|
4 |
68% |
86% |
Median |
5 |
17% |
18% |
|
6 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
3 |
52% |
99.7% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
43% |
48% |
|
5 |
6% |
6% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
14% |
100% |
|
3 |
9% |
86% |
Last Result |
4 |
73% |
77% |
Median |
5 |
4% |
4% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
2 |
21% |
99.4% |
|
3 |
76% |
78% |
Median |
4 |
2% |
2% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Belang van Nederland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
4% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
91% |
96% |
Median |
2 |
5% |
5% |
|
3 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
11% |
100% |
|
1 |
83% |
89% |
Median |
2 |
6% |
6% |
|
3 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
68% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
32% |
32% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
71% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
29% |
29% |
Last Result |
2 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
67 |
64 |
0% |
60–64 |
59–64 |
59–65 |
57–66 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging |
52 |
60 |
0% |
55–60 |
55–60 |
55–61 |
53–63 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 |
75 |
57 |
0% |
56–59 |
56–59 |
55–60 |
52–61 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
77 |
57 |
0% |
54–57 |
52–57 |
52–57 |
52–60 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
55 |
0% |
52–56 |
51–56 |
51–56 |
49–58 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
74 |
53 |
0% |
50–54 |
48–54 |
48–54 |
48–57 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid |
51 |
51 |
0% |
47–52 |
47–52 |
47–53 |
45–54 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
47 |
0% |
46–48 |
43–48 |
43–50 |
43–53 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
70 |
42 |
0% |
42–46 |
42–46 |
41–46 |
41–46 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
78 |
40 |
0% |
38–41 |
38–41 |
37–41 |
37–45 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus |
61 |
39 |
0% |
37–41 |
37–41 |
36–41 |
35–43 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
60 |
38 |
0% |
37–41 |
36–41 |
36–41 |
34–42 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
61 |
37 |
0% |
37–40 |
36–40 |
36–40 |
35–41 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
50 |
39 |
0% |
35–40 |
35–40 |
35–40 |
35–43 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
73 |
37 |
0% |
35–38 |
35–38 |
35–38 |
34–42 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
56 |
34 |
0% |
34–38 |
33–38 |
33–38 |
33–38 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus |
58 |
36 |
0% |
33–37 |
33–37 |
33–37 |
32–39 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
57 |
35 |
0% |
33–37 |
32–37 |
32–37 |
31–38 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging |
18 |
33 |
0% |
31–35 |
30–35 |
30–35 |
29–35 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
37 |
31 |
0% |
30–33 |
29–33 |
29–33 |
28–33 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
49 |
30 |
0% |
27–31 |
27–31 |
27–31 |
27–34 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
32 |
28 |
0% |
28–31 |
26–31 |
26–31 |
26–31 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
39 |
10 |
0% |
10–14 |
10–14 |
10–14 |
9–14 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
55 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
56 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
57 |
0.9% |
99.8% |
|
58 |
1.3% |
98.9% |
|
59 |
6% |
98% |
|
60 |
23% |
92% |
|
61 |
2% |
69% |
|
62 |
0.5% |
66% |
|
63 |
2% |
66% |
Median |
64 |
61% |
64% |
|
65 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
66 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
51 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
52 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
53 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
54 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
55 |
17% |
98% |
|
56 |
6% |
81% |
|
57 |
9% |
75% |
|
58 |
0.9% |
66% |
|
59 |
1.4% |
65% |
Median |
60 |
61% |
64% |
|
61 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
62 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
63 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
51 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
52 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
53 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
54 |
1.2% |
98.8% |
|
55 |
2% |
98% |
|
56 |
24% |
96% |
|
57 |
53% |
72% |
Median |
58 |
0.5% |
19% |
|
59 |
15% |
18% |
|
60 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
61 |
2% |
2% |
|
62 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
51 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
52 |
7% |
99.7% |
|
53 |
2% |
93% |
|
54 |
4% |
91% |
|
55 |
20% |
87% |
|
56 |
15% |
67% |
Median |
57 |
50% |
52% |
|
58 |
0.4% |
1.5% |
|
59 |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
60 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
61 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
62 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
63 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
48 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
49 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
50 |
1.2% |
99.1% |
|
51 |
3% |
98% |
|
52 |
26% |
95% |
|
53 |
1.3% |
69% |
|
54 |
3% |
68% |
Median |
55 |
50% |
65% |
|
56 |
13% |
15% |
|
57 |
0.4% |
1.4% |
|
58 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
47 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
48 |
7% |
99.9% |
|
49 |
0.3% |
93% |
|
50 |
5% |
93% |
|
51 |
20% |
88% |
|
52 |
2% |
67% |
Median |
53 |
49% |
65% |
|
54 |
15% |
16% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
56 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
57 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
58 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
44 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
45 |
1.4% |
99.6% |
|
46 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
47 |
17% |
98% |
|
48 |
3% |
81% |
|
49 |
11% |
78% |
|
50 |
2% |
67% |
Median |
51 |
50% |
65% |
Last Result |
52 |
12% |
15% |
|
53 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
54 |
2% |
2% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
42 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
43 |
9% |
99.9% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
91% |
|
45 |
0.5% |
91% |
|
46 |
4% |
90% |
Median |
47 |
68% |
87% |
|
48 |
14% |
19% |
|
49 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
50 |
4% |
5% |
|
51 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
53 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
40 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
41 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
42 |
48% |
97% |
|
43 |
4% |
48% |
Median |
44 |
8% |
44% |
|
45 |
23% |
36% |
|
46 |
12% |
13% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
48 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
36 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
37 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
38 |
20% |
97% |
|
39 |
8% |
77% |
|
40 |
51% |
69% |
Median |
41 |
17% |
18% |
|
42 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
43 |
0.4% |
1.2% |
|
44 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
45 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
35 |
1.4% |
99.8% |
|
36 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
37 |
25% |
97% |
|
38 |
20% |
72% |
|
39 |
3% |
52% |
|
40 |
0.6% |
49% |
Median |
41 |
47% |
48% |
|
42 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
43 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
44 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
45 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
46 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
33 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
34 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
35 |
0.5% |
98.9% |
|
36 |
8% |
98% |
|
37 |
36% |
90% |
|
38 |
6% |
55% |
|
39 |
0.7% |
49% |
|
40 |
0.9% |
48% |
Median |
41 |
47% |
47% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
43 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
44 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
45 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
46 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.8% |
99.8% |
|
36 |
4% |
99.1% |
|
37 |
53% |
95% |
|
38 |
2% |
42% |
Median |
39 |
12% |
40% |
|
40 |
28% |
28% |
|
41 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
35 |
11% |
99.6% |
|
36 |
4% |
89% |
|
37 |
30% |
85% |
|
38 |
1.0% |
55% |
|
39 |
5% |
54% |
Median |
40 |
47% |
49% |
|
41 |
0.8% |
1.4% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
43 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
44 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
35 |
10% |
98.6% |
|
36 |
19% |
89% |
|
37 |
48% |
70% |
Median |
38 |
20% |
22% |
|
39 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
40 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
41 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
43 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
32 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
33 |
5% |
99.7% |
|
34 |
49% |
94% |
|
35 |
5% |
45% |
Median |
36 |
7% |
40% |
|
37 |
21% |
33% |
|
38 |
12% |
12% |
|
39 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
32 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
33 |
27% |
98% |
|
34 |
0.6% |
71% |
|
35 |
11% |
71% |
|
36 |
12% |
60% |
Median |
37 |
47% |
48% |
|
38 |
0.8% |
1.4% |
|
39 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
40 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
41 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
31 |
1.1% |
99.7% |
|
32 |
8% |
98.7% |
|
33 |
20% |
91% |
|
34 |
8% |
71% |
|
35 |
14% |
63% |
|
36 |
0.5% |
48% |
Median |
37 |
47% |
48% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
39 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
40 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
41 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
29 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
30 |
5% |
99.2% |
|
31 |
19% |
95% |
|
32 |
3% |
75% |
|
33 |
55% |
72% |
Median |
34 |
5% |
17% |
|
35 |
13% |
13% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
6% |
98.8% |
|
30 |
4% |
93% |
|
31 |
76% |
89% |
Median |
32 |
0.8% |
13% |
|
33 |
12% |
12% |
|
34 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
27 |
11% |
99.5% |
|
28 |
0.9% |
89% |
|
29 |
31% |
88% |
|
30 |
8% |
57% |
Median |
31 |
47% |
49% |
|
32 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
33 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
34 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
35 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
36 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
26 |
5% |
99.7% |
|
27 |
4% |
95% |
|
28 |
74% |
91% |
Median |
29 |
4% |
17% |
|
30 |
1.0% |
13% |
|
31 |
12% |
12% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
10 |
53% |
98.7% |
|
11 |
23% |
46% |
Median |
12 |
5% |
23% |
|
13 |
0.9% |
17% |
|
14 |
17% |
17% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: I&O Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 6–7 November 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 2190
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.26%