Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 10–11 November 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract |
0.0% |
18.6% |
17.7–19.5% |
17.5–19.8% |
17.2–20.0% |
16.8–20.5% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie |
21.9% |
17.9% |
17.1–18.9% |
16.8–19.1% |
16.6–19.4% |
16.2–19.8% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid |
10.9% |
15.9% |
15.1–16.8% |
14.9–17.1% |
14.7–17.3% |
14.3–17.7% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid |
10.8% |
14.0% |
13.2–14.8% |
13.0–15.1% |
12.8–15.3% |
12.4–15.7% |
BoerBurgerBeweging |
1.0% |
6.0% |
5.4–6.6% |
5.3–6.7% |
5.2–6.9% |
4.9–7.2% |
Democraten 66 |
15.0% |
4.7% |
4.2–5.2% |
4.1–5.3% |
4.0–5.5% |
3.7–5.8% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
9.5% |
3.3% |
2.9–3.8% |
2.8–3.9% |
2.7–4.0% |
2.6–4.3% |
Forum voor Democratie |
5.0% |
3.3% |
2.9–3.8% |
2.8–3.9% |
2.7–4.0% |
2.6–4.3% |
Socialistische Partij |
6.0% |
2.7% |
2.3–3.1% |
2.2–3.2% |
2.1–3.3% |
2.0–3.5% |
Volt Europa |
2.4% |
2.7% |
2.3–3.1% |
2.2–3.2% |
2.1–3.3% |
2.0–3.5% |
DENK |
2.0% |
2.7% |
2.3–3.1% |
2.2–3.2% |
2.1–3.3% |
2.0–3.5% |
Partij voor de Dieren |
3.8% |
2.7% |
2.3–3.1% |
2.2–3.2% |
2.1–3.3% |
2.0–3.5% |
ChristenUnie |
3.4% |
2.0% |
1.7–2.4% |
1.6–2.5% |
1.6–2.6% |
1.4–2.8% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
2.1% |
1.3% |
1.1–1.6% |
1.0–1.7% |
1.0–1.8% |
0.9–2.0% |
Bij1 |
0.8% |
0.7% |
0.5–0.9% |
0.5–1.0% |
0.4–1.0% |
0.4–1.2% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 |
2.4% |
0.7% |
0.5–0.9% |
0.5–1.0% |
0.4–1.0% |
0.4–1.2% |
Belang van Nederland |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.5–0.9% |
0.5–1.0% |
0.4–1.0% |
0.4–1.2% |
50Plus |
1.0% |
0.2% |
0.1–0.3% |
0.1–0.4% |
0.1–0.4% |
0.0–0.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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Confidence Intervals
Nieuw Sociaal Contract
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
27 |
55% |
99.6% |
Median |
28 |
31% |
44% |
|
29 |
5% |
13% |
|
30 |
4% |
8% |
|
31 |
3% |
4% |
|
32 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
2% |
100% |
|
26 |
1.2% |
98% |
|
27 |
4% |
97% |
|
28 |
32% |
92% |
|
29 |
7% |
60% |
|
30 |
1.0% |
54% |
|
31 |
53% |
53% |
Median |
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
2% |
100% |
|
23 |
2% |
98% |
|
24 |
84% |
96% |
Median |
25 |
2% |
11% |
|
26 |
3% |
9% |
|
27 |
2% |
6% |
|
28 |
4% |
4% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.6% |
99.6% |
|
21 |
3% |
99.0% |
|
22 |
11% |
96% |
|
23 |
84% |
84% |
Median |
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
8 |
84% |
99.5% |
Median |
9 |
5% |
15% |
|
10 |
10% |
11% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
27% |
100% |
|
6 |
66% |
73% |
Median |
7 |
6% |
7% |
|
8 |
0.6% |
1.0% |
|
9 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
4 |
54% |
99.7% |
Median |
5 |
39% |
46% |
|
6 |
7% |
7% |
|
7 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
92% |
100% |
Median |
5 |
1.0% |
8% |
|
6 |
5% |
7% |
|
7 |
2% |
2% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
42% |
100% |
|
4 |
57% |
58% |
Median |
5 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
13% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
87% |
87% |
Median |
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
3 |
13% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
4 |
7% |
86% |
|
5 |
80% |
80% |
Median |
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
3% |
100% |
|
3 |
11% |
97% |
|
4 |
54% |
86% |
Median |
5 |
32% |
32% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
4% |
100% |
|
3 |
64% |
96% |
Median |
4 |
32% |
32% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
6% |
100% |
|
2 |
93% |
94% |
Median |
3 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
10% |
100% |
|
1 |
90% |
90% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
88% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
12% |
12% |
|
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Belang van Nederland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
57% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
41% |
43% |
|
2 |
2% |
2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
67 |
67 |
0% |
65–67 |
65–70 |
65–70 |
64–70 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging |
52 |
63 |
0% |
60–63 |
60–65 |
60–65 |
60–65 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
77 |
64 |
0% |
61–64 |
60–65 |
59–65 |
57–65 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
74 |
62 |
0% |
60–62 |
58–63 |
56–63 |
56–63 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 |
75 |
61 |
0% |
57–61 |
57–61 |
57–62 |
57–62 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
59 |
0% |
57–59 |
57–60 |
56–60 |
56–60 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
58 |
0% |
56–58 |
54–58 |
52–58 |
52–58 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid |
51 |
55 |
0% |
52–55 |
52–55 |
51–55 |
51–55 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie |
70 |
41 |
0% |
41–43 |
41–44 |
41–45 |
40–46 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
50 |
43 |
0% |
41–43 |
41–44 |
40–44 |
40–44 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
78 |
44 |
0% |
42–44 |
41–44 |
39–44 |
38–45 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus |
61 |
41 |
0% |
39–41 |
38–42 |
37–42 |
35–43 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
61 |
37 |
0% |
37–40 |
37–41 |
37–42 |
36–42 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
60 |
41 |
0% |
39–41 |
38–42 |
37–42 |
35–43 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
73 |
41 |
0% |
38–41 |
38–41 |
37–41 |
36–43 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus |
58 |
39 |
0% |
37–39 |
36–40 |
35–40 |
34–41 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
57 |
39 |
0% |
37–39 |
36–40 |
35–40 |
34–41 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
56 |
34 |
0% |
34–36 |
34–38 |
34–39 |
33–39 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging |
18 |
32 |
0% |
32–34 |
32–37 |
32–38 |
31–38 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
37 |
31 |
0% |
31–34 |
31–34 |
31–36 |
30–36 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
49 |
35 |
0% |
33–35 |
32–35 |
31–35 |
30–35 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
32 |
28 |
0% |
28–30 |
28–32 |
28–33 |
27–33 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
39 |
10 |
0% |
10–12 |
10–12 |
10–13 |
10–13 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
63 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
64 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
65 |
28% |
99.5% |
|
66 |
7% |
71% |
|
67 |
57% |
64% |
Last Result, Median |
68 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
69 |
0.1% |
7% |
|
70 |
7% |
7% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
100% |
|
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
58 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
60 |
33% |
99.7% |
|
61 |
4% |
66% |
|
62 |
2% |
63% |
|
63 |
53% |
60% |
Median |
64 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
65 |
7% |
7% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
57 |
2% |
100% |
|
58 |
0% |
98% |
|
59 |
2% |
98% |
|
60 |
4% |
96% |
|
61 |
2% |
91% |
|
62 |
30% |
89% |
|
63 |
0.5% |
60% |
|
64 |
53% |
59% |
Median |
65 |
6% |
6% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
55 |
0% |
100% |
|
56 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
58 |
5% |
96% |
|
59 |
0.6% |
92% |
|
60 |
32% |
91% |
|
61 |
0.2% |
60% |
|
62 |
53% |
59% |
Median |
63 |
6% |
6% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
28% |
99.9% |
|
58 |
9% |
71% |
|
59 |
2% |
63% |
|
60 |
0.3% |
61% |
|
61 |
57% |
60% |
Median |
62 |
3% |
3% |
|
63 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
64 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
54 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
56 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
57 |
29% |
96% |
|
58 |
7% |
67% |
|
59 |
53% |
60% |
Median |
60 |
7% |
7% |
|
61 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
50 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
51 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
52 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
53 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
54 |
4% |
96% |
|
55 |
0.7% |
92% |
|
56 |
33% |
91% |
|
57 |
5% |
58% |
|
58 |
53% |
53% |
Median |
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
50 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
51 |
3% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
52 |
36% |
96% |
|
53 |
0.6% |
61% |
|
54 |
0.3% |
60% |
|
55 |
59% |
60% |
Median |
56 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
40 |
2% |
100% |
|
41 |
79% |
98% |
Median |
42 |
1.3% |
18% |
|
43 |
10% |
17% |
|
44 |
3% |
7% |
|
45 |
4% |
5% |
|
46 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
36 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
37 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
39 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
40 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
41 |
27% |
96% |
|
42 |
9% |
69% |
|
43 |
54% |
60% |
Median |
44 |
7% |
7% |
|
45 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
38 |
2% |
100% |
|
39 |
1.2% |
98% |
|
40 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
41 |
4% |
96% |
|
42 |
27% |
92% |
|
43 |
1.0% |
66% |
|
44 |
62% |
65% |
Median |
45 |
2% |
2% |
|
46 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
35 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
37 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
38 |
5% |
97% |
|
39 |
27% |
92% |
|
40 |
6% |
65% |
|
41 |
53% |
59% |
Median |
42 |
5% |
7% |
|
43 |
2% |
2% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
36 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
37 |
54% |
99.2% |
Median |
38 |
28% |
45% |
|
39 |
2% |
17% |
|
40 |
7% |
15% |
|
41 |
3% |
7% |
|
42 |
4% |
4% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
35 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
37 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
38 |
5% |
97% |
|
39 |
27% |
92% |
|
40 |
6% |
65% |
|
41 |
53% |
59% |
Median |
42 |
5% |
7% |
|
43 |
2% |
2% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
36 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
37 |
1.2% |
98% |
|
38 |
31% |
97% |
|
39 |
0% |
66% |
|
40 |
6% |
66% |
|
41 |
57% |
59% |
Median |
42 |
2% |
2% |
|
43 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
44 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
34 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
35 |
1.2% |
98% |
|
36 |
5% |
97% |
|
37 |
27% |
92% |
|
38 |
3% |
65% |
|
39 |
55% |
62% |
Median |
40 |
5% |
7% |
|
41 |
2% |
2% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
34 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
35 |
1.2% |
98% |
|
36 |
5% |
97% |
|
37 |
27% |
92% |
|
38 |
3% |
65% |
|
39 |
55% |
62% |
Median |
40 |
5% |
7% |
|
41 |
2% |
2% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
33 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
34 |
81% |
99.3% |
Median |
35 |
0.5% |
18% |
|
36 |
8% |
18% |
|
37 |
0.6% |
10% |
|
38 |
5% |
9% |
|
39 |
5% |
5% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
32 |
88% |
99.2% |
Median |
33 |
0.3% |
12% |
|
34 |
2% |
11% |
|
35 |
1.0% |
10% |
|
36 |
3% |
9% |
|
37 |
2% |
6% |
|
38 |
4% |
4% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
30 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
31 |
53% |
98% |
Median |
32 |
3% |
44% |
|
33 |
28% |
41% |
|
34 |
10% |
14% |
|
35 |
0% |
4% |
|
36 |
4% |
4% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
30 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
31 |
2% |
98% |
|
32 |
4% |
96% |
|
33 |
27% |
92% |
|
34 |
10% |
65% |
|
35 |
55% |
55% |
Median |
36 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
27 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
28 |
53% |
98% |
Median |
29 |
29% |
45% |
|
30 |
6% |
16% |
|
31 |
3% |
9% |
|
32 |
2% |
6% |
Last Result |
33 |
4% |
4% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
80% |
100% |
Median |
11 |
8% |
20% |
|
12 |
9% |
12% |
|
13 |
2% |
3% |
|
14 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Peil.nl
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 10–11 November 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 3000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.68%