Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 12–14 November 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie |
21.9% |
17.3% |
16.4–18.4% |
16.1–18.7% |
15.9–18.9% |
15.4–19.5% |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract |
0.0% |
15.6% |
14.7–16.6% |
14.4–16.9% |
14.2–17.2% |
13.8–17.7% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid |
10.9% |
14.9% |
13.9–15.8% |
13.7–16.1% |
13.5–16.4% |
13.0–16.8% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid |
10.8% |
12.8% |
11.9–13.7% |
11.7–14.0% |
11.5–14.2% |
11.1–14.7% |
BoerBurgerBeweging |
1.0% |
5.2% |
4.6–5.8% |
4.5–6.0% |
4.3–6.2% |
4.1–6.5% |
Socialistische Partij |
6.0% |
5.0% |
4.4–5.6% |
4.3–5.8% |
4.1–5.9% |
3.9–6.2% |
Democraten 66 |
15.0% |
4.7% |
4.2–5.3% |
4.1–5.5% |
3.9–5.7% |
3.7–6.0% |
Partij voor de Dieren |
3.8% |
4.0% |
3.5–4.5% |
3.4–4.7% |
3.2–4.8% |
3.0–5.1% |
Volt Europa |
2.4% |
3.4% |
2.9–3.9% |
2.8–4.0% |
2.7–4.2% |
2.5–4.5% |
ChristenUnie |
3.4% |
3.3% |
2.8–3.8% |
2.7–3.9% |
2.6–4.1% |
2.4–4.3% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
9.5% |
2.9% |
2.5–3.4% |
2.4–3.5% |
2.3–3.7% |
2.1–3.9% |
DENK |
2.0% |
2.6% |
2.2–3.1% |
2.1–3.2% |
2.0–3.3% |
1.8–3.6% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
2.1% |
2.6% |
2.2–3.1% |
2.1–3.2% |
2.0–3.3% |
1.8–3.6% |
Forum voor Democratie |
5.0% |
2.5% |
2.1–3.0% |
2.0–3.1% |
1.9–3.2% |
1.8–3.5% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 |
2.4% |
1.2% |
1.0–1.6% |
0.9–1.7% |
0.8–1.7% |
0.7–1.9% |
Belang van Nederland |
0.0% |
0.8% |
0.6–1.1% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.4–1.4% |
50Plus |
1.0% |
0.8% |
0.6–1.1% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.4–1.4% |
Bij1 |
0.8% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.5% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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Confidence Intervals
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
25 |
76% |
98% |
Median |
26 |
5% |
22% |
|
27 |
2% |
17% |
|
28 |
12% |
15% |
|
29 |
3% |
4% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
0.5% |
99.5% |
|
23 |
2% |
99.0% |
|
24 |
12% |
97% |
|
25 |
4% |
85% |
|
26 |
2% |
81% |
|
27 |
78% |
79% |
Median |
28 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
29 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
12% |
99.2% |
|
22 |
3% |
87% |
|
23 |
5% |
85% |
|
24 |
80% |
80% |
Median |
25 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
26 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
27 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
18 |
76% |
99.8% |
Median |
19 |
2% |
24% |
|
20 |
14% |
22% |
|
21 |
6% |
7% |
|
22 |
0.9% |
1.2% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
24 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
6 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
7 |
16% |
98% |
|
8 |
77% |
82% |
Median |
9 |
5% |
5% |
|
10 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
6 |
79% |
99.6% |
Median |
7 |
4% |
21% |
|
8 |
16% |
17% |
|
9 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
Last Result |
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
13% |
96% |
|
8 |
82% |
82% |
Median |
9 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
5 |
6% |
99.7% |
|
6 |
93% |
94% |
Last Result, Median |
7 |
1.2% |
1.5% |
|
8 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
89% |
96% |
Median |
6 |
7% |
7% |
|
7 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
4 |
93% |
99.8% |
Median |
5 |
5% |
7% |
Last Result |
6 |
2% |
2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
3 |
7% |
99.8% |
|
4 |
90% |
93% |
Median |
5 |
3% |
3% |
|
6 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
3 |
83% |
99.8% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
14% |
17% |
|
5 |
3% |
3% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
3 |
16% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
4 |
83% |
84% |
Median |
5 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
3 |
82% |
99.0% |
Median |
4 |
16% |
17% |
|
5 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
4% |
100% |
|
1 |
17% |
96% |
|
2 |
4% |
80% |
|
3 |
76% |
76% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Belang van Nederland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
3% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
96% |
97% |
Median |
2 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
6% |
100% |
|
1 |
80% |
94% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
14% |
14% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.3% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
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Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
67 |
61 |
0% |
60–61 |
60–62 |
60–63 |
58–64 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging |
52 |
57 |
0% |
56–57 |
56–57 |
56–60 |
54–60 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie |
77 |
54 |
0% |
54–59 |
54–59 |
54–59 |
54–62 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 |
75 |
57 |
0% |
56–57 |
56–58 |
55–58 |
54–59 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
74 |
50 |
0% |
50–56 |
50–56 |
50–56 |
50–58 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
53 |
0% |
53 |
53–54 |
51–55 |
51–57 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
47 |
0% |
47–52 |
47–52 |
47–52 |
47–54 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid |
51 |
49 |
0% |
49 |
49–50 |
47–51 |
47–52 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
70 |
46 |
0% |
44–46 |
44–47 |
43–47 |
42–49 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
78 |
41 |
0% |
41–43 |
41–43 |
40–44 |
40–46 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus |
61 |
37 |
0% |
37–41 |
37–41 |
36–41 |
36–42 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
50 |
37 |
0% |
37–39 |
37–39 |
36–41 |
36–41 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
61 |
40 |
0% |
36–40 |
36–40 |
36–40 |
36–42 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
73 |
37 |
0% |
37–39 |
37–39 |
36–40 |
35–40 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie |
60 |
36 |
0% |
36–39 |
36–39 |
35–40 |
34–41 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus |
58 |
33 |
0% |
33–38 |
33–38 |
33–38 |
33–38 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
57 |
32 |
0% |
32–36 |
32–36 |
32–36 |
31–38 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
56 |
36 |
0% |
32–36 |
32–36 |
31–36 |
31–37 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
37 |
32 |
0% |
29–32 |
29–32 |
29–33 |
29–34 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging |
18 |
32 |
0% |
28–32 |
28–32 |
28–32 |
27–32 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
49 |
29 |
0% |
29–32 |
29–32 |
28–32 |
28–34 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
32 |
28 |
0% |
25–28 |
25–28 |
25–28 |
24–29 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
39 |
12 |
0% |
11–12 |
11–12 |
9–12 |
9–13 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
56 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
58 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
|
59 |
1.2% |
99.2% |
|
60 |
17% |
98% |
|
61 |
76% |
81% |
Median |
62 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
63 |
4% |
5% |
|
64 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
65 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
53 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
54 |
0.8% |
99.7% |
|
55 |
0.8% |
98.9% |
|
56 |
14% |
98% |
|
57 |
79% |
84% |
Median |
58 |
2% |
5% |
|
59 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
60 |
2% |
3% |
|
61 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
53 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
54 |
76% |
99.8% |
Median |
55 |
3% |
24% |
|
56 |
0.2% |
21% |
|
57 |
0.3% |
21% |
|
58 |
3% |
21% |
|
59 |
15% |
17% |
|
60 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
61 |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
62 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
63 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
53 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
54 |
1.0% |
99.7% |
|
55 |
3% |
98.7% |
|
56 |
12% |
96% |
|
57 |
78% |
84% |
Median |
58 |
5% |
6% |
|
59 |
0.5% |
0.8% |
|
60 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
61 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
49 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
50 |
76% |
99.9% |
Median |
51 |
0% |
24% |
|
52 |
3% |
24% |
|
53 |
0.4% |
21% |
|
54 |
3% |
21% |
|
55 |
4% |
17% |
|
56 |
13% |
14% |
|
57 |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
59 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
49 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
50 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
51 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
52 |
1.2% |
97% |
|
53 |
91% |
96% |
Median |
54 |
2% |
5% |
|
55 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
56 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
57 |
1.1% |
1.2% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
45 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
46 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
47 |
76% |
99.7% |
Median |
48 |
0.1% |
24% |
|
49 |
3% |
24% |
|
50 |
3% |
21% |
|
51 |
0.8% |
17% |
|
52 |
15% |
17% |
|
53 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
54 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
55 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
46 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
47 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
48 |
1.1% |
97% |
|
49 |
88% |
96% |
Median |
50 |
4% |
8% |
|
51 |
3% |
5% |
Last Result |
52 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
53 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
54 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
42 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
43 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
44 |
12% |
97% |
|
45 |
3% |
85% |
|
46 |
76% |
82% |
Median |
47 |
4% |
6% |
|
48 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
49 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
50 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
51 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
52 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
53 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
54 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
38 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
39 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
40 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
41 |
79% |
97% |
Median |
42 |
0.8% |
18% |
|
43 |
14% |
17% |
|
44 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
45 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
46 |
1.1% |
1.4% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
48 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
49 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
36 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
37 |
79% |
97% |
Median |
38 |
0.6% |
18% |
|
39 |
3% |
17% |
|
40 |
0.8% |
15% |
|
41 |
13% |
14% |
|
42 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
43 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
36 |
4% |
99.7% |
|
37 |
79% |
96% |
Median |
38 |
0.6% |
17% |
|
39 |
12% |
17% |
|
40 |
2% |
5% |
|
41 |
2% |
3% |
|
42 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
43 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
36 |
14% |
99.6% |
|
37 |
1.0% |
86% |
|
38 |
0.7% |
85% |
|
39 |
6% |
84% |
|
40 |
77% |
78% |
Median |
41 |
0.4% |
1.2% |
|
42 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
43 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
44 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
45 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
34 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
35 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
|
36 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
37 |
80% |
97% |
Median |
38 |
3% |
17% |
|
39 |
11% |
14% |
|
40 |
2% |
3% |
|
41 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
42 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
43 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
2% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
36 |
76% |
97% |
Median |
37 |
4% |
21% |
|
38 |
0.9% |
17% |
|
39 |
14% |
16% |
|
40 |
2% |
3% |
|
41 |
0.5% |
0.9% |
|
42 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
32 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
33 |
81% |
99.5% |
Median |
34 |
0.7% |
18% |
|
35 |
3% |
18% |
|
36 |
0.6% |
15% |
|
37 |
2% |
14% |
|
38 |
12% |
12% |
|
39 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
2% |
100% |
|
32 |
76% |
98% |
Median |
33 |
4% |
22% |
|
34 |
0.5% |
17% |
|
35 |
3% |
17% |
|
36 |
13% |
14% |
|
37 |
0.6% |
1.3% |
|
38 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
31 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
32 |
12% |
97% |
|
33 |
1.4% |
86% |
|
34 |
2% |
84% |
|
35 |
6% |
82% |
|
36 |
76% |
76% |
Median |
37 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
38 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
39 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
12% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
3% |
88% |
|
31 |
6% |
85% |
|
32 |
76% |
79% |
Median |
33 |
2% |
3% |
|
34 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
36 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.6% |
99.6% |
|
28 |
12% |
99.0% |
|
29 |
2% |
87% |
|
30 |
0.7% |
85% |
|
31 |
6% |
85% |
|
32 |
79% |
79% |
Median |
33 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
35 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
36 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
28 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
29 |
79% |
97% |
Median |
30 |
2% |
18% |
|
31 |
0.5% |
17% |
|
32 |
14% |
16% |
|
33 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
34 |
1.1% |
1.3% |
|
35 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
15% |
99.5% |
|
26 |
0.3% |
85% |
|
27 |
7% |
85% |
|
28 |
77% |
78% |
Median |
29 |
0.6% |
1.0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
31 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
9 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
10 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
11 |
17% |
96% |
|
12 |
78% |
80% |
Median |
13 |
0.9% |
1.4% |
|
14 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: I&O Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 12–14 November 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 2323
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.84%