Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 12–14 November 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.9% | 17.3% | 16.4–18.4% | 16.1–18.7% | 15.9–18.9% | 15.4–19.5% |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract | 0.0% | 15.6% | 14.7–16.6% | 14.4–16.9% | 14.2–17.2% | 13.8–17.7% |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 10.9% | 14.9% | 13.9–15.8% | 13.7–16.1% | 13.5–16.4% | 13.0–16.8% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 10.8% | 12.8% | 11.9–13.7% | 11.7–14.0% | 11.5–14.2% | 11.1–14.7% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1.0% | 5.2% | 4.6–5.8% | 4.5–6.0% | 4.3–6.2% | 4.1–6.5% |
| Socialistische Partij | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.4–5.6% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.9–6.2% |
| Democraten 66 | 15.0% | 4.7% | 4.2–5.3% | 4.1–5.5% | 3.9–5.7% | 3.7–6.0% |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.5% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.1% |
| Volt Europa | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.9–3.9% | 2.8–4.0% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.5% |
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.8–3.8% | 2.7–3.9% | 2.6–4.1% | 2.4–4.3% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 9.5% | 2.9% | 2.5–3.4% | 2.4–3.5% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.1–3.9% |
| DENK | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.2–3.1% | 2.1–3.2% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.6% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.2–3.1% | 2.1–3.2% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.6% |
| Forum voor Democratie | 5.0% | 2.5% | 2.1–3.0% | 2.0–3.1% | 1.9–3.2% | 1.8–3.5% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.0–1.6% | 0.9–1.7% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.9% |
| Belang van Nederland | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.1% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.4% |
| 50Plus | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.1% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.4% |
| Bij1 | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 34 | 25 | 25–28 | 25–28 | 25–29 | 24–29 |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract | 0 | 27 | 24–27 | 24–27 | 23–27 | 21–28 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 17 | 24 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 20–24 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 17 | 18 | 18–20 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–22 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1 | 8 | 7–8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–9 |
| Socialistische Partij | 9 | 6 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 |
| Democraten 66 | 24 | 8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| Volt Europa | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 15 | 4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| DENK | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Forum voor Democratie | 8 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–5 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 3 | 3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| Belang van Nederland | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 50Plus | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Bij1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 76% | 98% | Median |
| 26 | 5% | 22% | |
| 27 | 2% | 17% | |
| 28 | 12% | 15% | |
| 29 | 3% | 4% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 24 | 12% | 97% | |
| 25 | 4% | 85% | |
| 26 | 2% | 81% | |
| 27 | 78% | 79% | Median |
| 28 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 12% | 99.2% | |
| 22 | 3% | 87% | |
| 23 | 5% | 85% | |
| 24 | 80% | 80% | Median |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 76% | 99.8% | Median |
| 19 | 2% | 24% | |
| 20 | 14% | 22% | |
| 21 | 6% | 7% | |
| 22 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 16% | 98% | |
| 8 | 77% | 82% | Median |
| 9 | 5% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 79% | 99.6% | Median |
| 7 | 4% | 21% | |
| 8 | 16% | 17% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 13% | 96% | |
| 8 | 82% | 82% | Median |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 6% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 93% | 94% | Last Result, Median |
| 7 | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 89% | 96% | Median |
| 6 | 7% | 7% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 93% | 99.8% | Median |
| 5 | 5% | 7% | Last Result |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 7% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 90% | 93% | Median |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 83% | 99.8% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 14% | 17% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 16% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 4 | 83% | 84% | Median |
| 5 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 82% | 99.0% | Median |
| 4 | 16% | 17% | |
| 5 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 17% | 96% | |
| 2 | 4% | 80% | |
| 3 | 76% | 76% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Belang van Nederland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 96% | 97% | Median |
| 2 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | |
| 1 | 80% | 94% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 14% | 14% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.3% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0.7% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 67 | 61 | 0% | 60–61 | 60–62 | 60–63 | 58–64 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging | 52 | 57 | 0% | 56–57 | 56–57 | 56–60 | 54–60 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie | 77 | 54 | 0% | 54–59 | 54–59 | 54–59 | 54–62 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 | 75 | 57 | 0% | 56–57 | 56–58 | 55–58 | 54–59 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 74 | 50 | 0% | 50–56 | 50–56 | 50–56 | 50–58 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 53 | 0% | 53 | 53–54 | 51–55 | 51–57 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 47 | 0% | 47–52 | 47–52 | 47–52 | 47–54 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 51 | 49 | 0% | 49 | 49–50 | 47–51 | 47–52 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 70 | 46 | 0% | 44–46 | 44–47 | 43–47 | 42–49 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 78 | 41 | 0% | 41–43 | 41–43 | 40–44 | 40–46 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus | 61 | 37 | 0% | 37–41 | 37–41 | 36–41 | 36–42 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 50 | 37 | 0% | 37–39 | 37–39 | 36–41 | 36–41 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 61 | 40 | 0% | 36–40 | 36–40 | 36–40 | 36–42 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 73 | 37 | 0% | 37–39 | 37–39 | 36–40 | 35–40 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie | 60 | 36 | 0% | 36–39 | 36–39 | 35–40 | 34–41 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus | 58 | 33 | 0% | 33–38 | 33–38 | 33–38 | 33–38 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 57 | 32 | 0% | 32–36 | 32–36 | 32–36 | 31–38 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 56 | 36 | 0% | 32–36 | 32–36 | 31–36 | 31–37 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 37 | 32 | 0% | 29–32 | 29–32 | 29–33 | 29–34 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging | 18 | 32 | 0% | 28–32 | 28–32 | 28–32 | 27–32 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 49 | 29 | 0% | 29–32 | 29–32 | 28–32 | 28–34 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 32 | 28 | 0% | 25–28 | 25–28 | 25–28 | 24–29 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 39 | 12 | 0% | 11–12 | 11–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 59 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 60 | 17% | 98% | |
| 61 | 76% | 81% | Median |
| 62 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 63 | 4% | 5% | |
| 64 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 55 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 56 | 14% | 98% | |
| 57 | 79% | 84% | Median |
| 58 | 2% | 5% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 60 | 2% | 3% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 54 | 76% | 99.8% | Median |
| 55 | 3% | 24% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 21% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 21% | |
| 58 | 3% | 21% | |
| 59 | 15% | 17% | |
| 60 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 55 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 56 | 12% | 96% | |
| 57 | 78% | 84% | Median |
| 58 | 5% | 6% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 76% | 99.9% | Median |
| 51 | 0% | 24% | |
| 52 | 3% | 24% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 21% | |
| 54 | 3% | 21% | |
| 55 | 4% | 17% | |
| 56 | 13% | 14% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 52 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 53 | 91% | 96% | Median |
| 54 | 2% | 5% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 56 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 57 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 76% | 99.7% | Median |
| 48 | 0.1% | 24% | |
| 49 | 3% | 24% | |
| 50 | 3% | 21% | |
| 51 | 0.8% | 17% | |
| 52 | 15% | 17% | |
| 53 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 47 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 49 | 88% | 96% | Median |
| 50 | 4% | 8% | |
| 51 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 52 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 43 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 44 | 12% | 97% | |
| 45 | 3% | 85% | |
| 46 | 76% | 82% | Median |
| 47 | 4% | 6% | |
| 48 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 41 | 79% | 97% | Median |
| 42 | 0.8% | 18% | |
| 43 | 14% | 17% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 46 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 79% | 97% | Median |
| 38 | 0.6% | 18% | |
| 39 | 3% | 17% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 15% | |
| 41 | 13% | 14% | |
| 42 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 36 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 79% | 96% | Median |
| 38 | 0.6% | 17% | |
| 39 | 12% | 17% | |
| 40 | 2% | 5% | |
| 41 | 2% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 14% | 99.6% | |
| 37 | 1.0% | 86% | |
| 38 | 0.7% | 85% | |
| 39 | 6% | 84% | |
| 40 | 77% | 78% | Median |
| 41 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 36 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 37 | 80% | 97% | Median |
| 38 | 3% | 17% | |
| 39 | 11% | 14% | |
| 40 | 2% | 3% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 2% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 36 | 76% | 97% | Median |
| 37 | 4% | 21% | |
| 38 | 0.9% | 17% | |
| 39 | 14% | 16% | |
| 40 | 2% | 3% | |
| 41 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 81% | 99.5% | Median |
| 34 | 0.7% | 18% | |
| 35 | 3% | 18% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 15% | |
| 37 | 2% | 14% | |
| 38 | 12% | 12% | |
| 39 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 2% | 100% | |
| 32 | 76% | 98% | Median |
| 33 | 4% | 22% | |
| 34 | 0.5% | 17% | |
| 35 | 3% | 17% | |
| 36 | 13% | 14% | |
| 37 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 38 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 31 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 32 | 12% | 97% | |
| 33 | 1.4% | 86% | |
| 34 | 2% | 84% | |
| 35 | 6% | 82% | |
| 36 | 76% | 76% | Median |
| 37 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 12% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 3% | 88% | |
| 31 | 6% | 85% | |
| 32 | 76% | 79% | Median |
| 33 | 2% | 3% | |
| 34 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 28 | 12% | 99.0% | |
| 29 | 2% | 87% | |
| 30 | 0.7% | 85% | |
| 31 | 6% | 85% | |
| 32 | 79% | 79% | Median |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 29 | 79% | 97% | Median |
| 30 | 2% | 18% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 17% | |
| 32 | 14% | 16% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 34 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 15% | 99.5% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 85% | |
| 27 | 7% | 85% | |
| 28 | 77% | 78% | Median |
| 29 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 11 | 17% | 96% | |
| 12 | 78% | 80% | Median |
| 13 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: I&O Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 12–14 November 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 2323
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.84%