Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 17–18 November 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.9% | 17.3% | 16.4–18.2% | 16.2–18.4% | 15.9–18.7% | 15.5–19.1% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 10.8% | 17.3% | 16.4–18.2% | 16.2–18.4% | 15.9–18.7% | 15.5–19.1% |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract | 0.0% | 15.3% | 14.4–16.1% | 14.2–16.4% | 14.0–16.6% | 13.6–17.0% |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 10.9% | 15.3% | 14.4–16.1% | 14.2–16.4% | 14.0–16.6% | 13.6–17.0% |
| Democraten 66 | 15.0% | 5.3% | 4.8–5.9% | 4.7–6.0% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.3–6.4% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1.0% | 4.7% | 4.2–5.2% | 4.1–5.3% | 4.0–5.5% | 3.7–5.8% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 9.5% | 4.0% | 3.6–4.5% | 3.4–4.6% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% |
| Socialistische Partij | 6.0% | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| Forum voor Democratie | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| Volt Europa | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% |
| DENK | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% |
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.4% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.1–1.6% | 1.0–1.7% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–2.0% |
| Bij1 | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5–0.9% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.2% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.5–0.9% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.2% |
| Belang van Nederland | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–0.9% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.2% |
| 50Plus | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.3% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 34 | 29 | 26–29 | 25–31 | 25–31 | 23–31 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 17 | 28 | 25–28 | 25–28 | 24–29 | 24–30 |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract | 0 | 23 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 22–26 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 17 | 24 | 22–24 | 22–25 | 22–26 | 21–26 |
| Democraten 66 | 24 | 7 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1 | 7 | 6–7 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 15 | 5 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| Socialistische Partij | 9 | 7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Forum voor Democratie | 8 | 4 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 6 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Volt Europa | 3 | 3 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| DENK | 3 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Bij1 | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 3 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Belang van Nederland | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| 50Plus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 25 | 6% | 98.5% | |
| 26 | 5% | 93% | |
| 27 | 2% | 88% | |
| 28 | 19% | 86% | |
| 29 | 61% | 67% | Median |
| 30 | 0% | 6% | |
| 31 | 6% | 6% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 3% | 100% | |
| 25 | 15% | 97% | |
| 26 | 3% | 82% | |
| 27 | 16% | 78% | |
| 28 | 60% | 63% | Median |
| 29 | 2% | 3% | |
| 30 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 11% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 63% | 89% | Median |
| 24 | 8% | 26% | |
| 25 | 2% | 18% | |
| 26 | 17% | 17% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 21 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 22 | 26% | 98% | |
| 23 | 12% | 72% | |
| 24 | 55% | 61% | Median |
| 25 | 3% | 6% | |
| 26 | 3% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 9% | 100% | |
| 7 | 67% | 91% | Median |
| 8 | 11% | 24% | |
| 9 | 11% | 13% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 6% | 100% | |
| 6 | 16% | 94% | |
| 7 | 71% | 78% | Median |
| 8 | 4% | 7% | |
| 9 | 3% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 5 | 65% | 99.2% | Median |
| 6 | 13% | 35% | |
| 7 | 22% | 22% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 24% | 100% | |
| 5 | 18% | 76% | |
| 6 | 4% | 59% | |
| 7 | 55% | 55% | Median |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 6% | 100% | |
| 4 | 55% | 94% | Median |
| 5 | 19% | 39% | |
| 6 | 20% | 20% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 70% | 99.9% | Median |
| 5 | 21% | 30% | |
| 6 | 8% | 8% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 60% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 30% | 40% | |
| 5 | 10% | 10% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 3 | 10% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 4 | 80% | 89% | Median |
| 5 | 9% | 9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 31% | 100% | |
| 3 | 68% | 69% | Median |
| 4 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 66% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 34% | 34% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 76% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 23% | 24% | Last Result |
| 2 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17% | 100% | |
| 1 | 83% | 83% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Belang van Nederland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 70% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 29% | 30% | |
| 2 | 1.5% | 1.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 77 | 67 | 0% | 65–69 | 64–70 | 63–70 | 63–70 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 74 | 66 | 0% | 64–68 | 62–68 | 61–68 | 61–68 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 67 | 65 | 0% | 62–65 | 62–65 | 62–65 | 59–66 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 62 | 0% | 59–62 | 58–63 | 57–63 | 55–63 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 | 75 | 60 | 0% | 56–60 | 56–61 | 55–61 | 55–62 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging | 52 | 60 | 0% | 56–60 | 55–60 | 55–60 | 53–61 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 58 | 0% | 56–58 | 55–60 | 54–60 | 52–60 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 51 | 53 | 0% | 49–53 | 48–53 | 47–53 | 47–53 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 78 | 44 | 0% | 43–45 | 42–48 | 41–48 | 40–48 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie | 70 | 46 | 0% | 42–46 | 41–47 | 41–47 | 41–48 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 73 | 41 | 0% | 41–43 | 39–46 | 38–46 | 37–46 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus | 61 | 39 | 0% | 39–42 | 38–45 | 37–45 | 35–45 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 60 | 39 | 0% | 39–42 | 38–45 | 37–45 | 35–45 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 50 | 41 | 0% | 40–41 | 39–43 | 37–43 | 35–44 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus | 58 | 38 | 0% | 37–41 | 36–43 | 35–43 | 34–43 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 57 | 38 | 0% | 37–41 | 36–43 | 35–43 | 34–43 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 61 | 39 | 0% | 38–40 | 37–42 | 37–42 | 37–44 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 56 | 36 | 0% | 35–37 | 35–39 | 35–40 | 35–40 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 49 | 34 | 0% | 32–35 | 32–38 | 31–38 | 29–38 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 37 | 32 | 0% | 31–32 | 29–33 | 29–34 | 29–35 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging | 18 | 31 | 0% | 28–31 | 27–31 | 27–33 | 27–35 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 32 | 29 | 0% | 28–29 | 27–30 | 27–31 | 27–32 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 39 | 12 | 0% | 12–15 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 10–17 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 5% | 100% | |
| 64 | 2% | 95% | |
| 65 | 4% | 93% | |
| 66 | 10% | 89% | |
| 67 | 56% | 79% | Median |
| 68 | 0.9% | 24% | |
| 69 | 14% | 23% | |
| 70 | 8% | 8% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partij voor de Vrijheid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 4% | 100% | |
| 62 | 3% | 96% | |
| 63 | 2% | 93% | |
| 64 | 11% | 91% | |
| 65 | 1.1% | 79% | |
| 66 | 55% | 78% | Median |
| 67 | 8% | 23% | |
| 68 | 16% | 16% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 61 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 62 | 10% | 98% | |
| 63 | 16% | 88% | |
| 64 | 8% | 72% | |
| 65 | 63% | 64% | Median |
| 66 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partij voor de Vrijheid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 57 | 3% | 98% | |
| 58 | 4% | 96% | |
| 59 | 10% | 91% | |
| 60 | 0.9% | 81% | |
| 61 | 9% | 80% | |
| 62 | 66% | 72% | Median |
| 63 | 6% | 6% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 55 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 8% | 96% | |
| 57 | 6% | 89% | |
| 58 | 12% | 82% | |
| 59 | 2% | 71% | |
| 60 | 63% | 69% | Median |
| 61 | 6% | 6% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 55 | 4% | 99.1% | |
| 56 | 12% | 95% | |
| 57 | 10% | 83% | |
| 58 | 16% | 73% | |
| 59 | 0.8% | 57% | |
| 60 | 55% | 57% | Median |
| 61 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 54 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 55 | 3% | 96% | |
| 56 | 15% | 93% | |
| 57 | 16% | 78% | |
| 58 | 55% | 61% | Median |
| 59 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 60 | 5% | 6% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 47 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 48 | 2% | 97% | |
| 49 | 6% | 95% | |
| 50 | 11% | 88% | |
| 51 | 15% | 78% | Last Result |
| 52 | 2% | 63% | |
| 53 | 60% | 61% | Median |
| 54 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 2% | 100% | |
| 41 | 2% | 98% | |
| 42 | 4% | 96% | |
| 43 | 15% | 92% | |
| 44 | 59% | 77% | Median |
| 45 | 11% | 18% | |
| 46 | 2% | 8% | |
| 47 | 0% | 6% | |
| 48 | 6% | 6% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 7% | 100% | |
| 42 | 7% | 93% | |
| 43 | 15% | 86% | |
| 44 | 3% | 71% | |
| 45 | 5% | 67% | |
| 46 | 56% | 62% | Median |
| 47 | 6% | 7% | |
| 48 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 38 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 39 | 3% | 96% | |
| 40 | 3% | 94% | |
| 41 | 72% | 91% | Median |
| 42 | 5% | 19% | |
| 43 | 8% | 14% | |
| 44 | 0% | 6% | |
| 45 | 0% | 6% | |
| 46 | 6% | 6% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 37 | 3% | 98% | |
| 38 | 5% | 95% | |
| 39 | 59% | 91% | Median |
| 40 | 0.8% | 31% | |
| 41 | 6% | 31% | |
| 42 | 19% | 24% | |
| 43 | 0% | 5% | |
| 44 | 0% | 5% | |
| 45 | 5% | 5% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 37 | 3% | 98% | |
| 38 | 5% | 95% | |
| 39 | 59% | 91% | Median |
| 40 | 0.7% | 31% | |
| 41 | 6% | 31% | |
| 42 | 19% | 24% | |
| 43 | 0% | 5% | |
| 44 | 0% | 5% | |
| 45 | 5% | 5% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 37 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 38 | 2% | 97% | |
| 39 | 3% | 96% | |
| 40 | 12% | 93% | |
| 41 | 74% | 81% | Median |
| 42 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 43 | 5% | 7% | |
| 44 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 2% | 100% | |
| 35 | 2% | 98% | |
| 36 | 5% | 96% | |
| 37 | 4% | 91% | |
| 38 | 56% | 87% | Median |
| 39 | 6% | 31% | |
| 40 | 11% | 25% | |
| 41 | 8% | 13% | |
| 42 | 0% | 5% | |
| 43 | 5% | 5% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 2% | 100% | |
| 35 | 2% | 98% | |
| 36 | 5% | 96% | |
| 37 | 4% | 91% | |
| 38 | 56% | 87% | Median |
| 39 | 6% | 31% | |
| 40 | 11% | 25% | |
| 41 | 8% | 13% | |
| 42 | 0% | 5% | |
| 43 | 5% | 5% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 8% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 16% | 92% | |
| 39 | 64% | 76% | Median |
| 40 | 3% | 12% | |
| 41 | 3% | 9% | |
| 42 | 4% | 6% | |
| 43 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 11% | 99.5% | |
| 36 | 68% | 88% | Median |
| 37 | 11% | 20% | |
| 38 | 2% | 9% | |
| 39 | 4% | 7% | |
| 40 | 2% | 3% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 31 | 3% | 98% | |
| 32 | 5% | 95% | |
| 33 | 5% | 90% | |
| 34 | 70% | 85% | Median |
| 35 | 9% | 15% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 37 | 0% | 5% | |
| 38 | 5% | 5% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 29 | 7% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 31 | 26% | 93% | |
| 32 | 57% | 67% | Median |
| 33 | 7% | 10% | |
| 34 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 35 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 6% | 100% | |
| 28 | 14% | 94% | |
| 29 | 3% | 81% | |
| 30 | 16% | 77% | |
| 31 | 57% | 61% | Median |
| 32 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 33 | 2% | 3% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 35 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 7% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 5% | 93% | |
| 29 | 78% | 88% | Median |
| 30 | 6% | 10% | |
| 31 | 2% | 4% | |
| 32 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 12 | 56% | 99.0% | Median |
| 13 | 19% | 43% | |
| 14 | 9% | 25% | |
| 15 | 10% | 15% | |
| 16 | 5% | 5% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Peil.nl
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 17–18 November 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 3000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.28%