Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 20–21 November 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Partij voor de Vrijheid |
10.8% |
17.7% |
16.6–18.8% |
16.3–19.1% |
16.1–19.4% |
15.6–19.9% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid |
10.9% |
17.7% |
16.6–18.8% |
16.3–19.1% |
16.1–19.4% |
15.6–19.9% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie |
21.9% |
17.4% |
16.4–18.5% |
16.1–18.8% |
15.8–19.1% |
15.3–19.6% |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract |
0.0% |
13.8% |
12.8–14.8% |
12.6–15.1% |
12.4–15.3% |
11.9–15.8% |
Democraten 66 |
15.0% |
6.0% |
5.3–6.7% |
5.2–6.9% |
5.0–7.1% |
4.7–7.4% |
Socialistische Partij |
6.0% |
4.0% |
3.5–4.6% |
3.4–4.8% |
3.2–4.9% |
3.0–5.2% |
BoerBurgerBeweging |
1.0% |
3.3% |
2.8–3.8% |
2.7–4.0% |
2.6–4.1% |
2.4–4.4% |
Partij voor de Dieren |
3.8% |
3.3% |
2.8–3.8% |
2.7–4.0% |
2.6–4.1% |
2.4–4.4% |
Forum voor Democratie |
5.0% |
2.8% |
2.4–3.3% |
2.3–3.5% |
2.2–3.6% |
2.0–3.9% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
9.5% |
2.6% |
2.2–3.1% |
2.1–3.3% |
2.0–3.4% |
1.8–3.6% |
ChristenUnie |
3.4% |
2.4% |
2.0–2.9% |
1.9–3.0% |
1.8–3.2% |
1.7–3.4% |
Volt Europa |
2.4% |
2.2% |
1.8–2.7% |
1.8–2.8% |
1.7–3.0% |
1.5–3.2% |
DENK |
2.0% |
2.2% |
1.8–2.7% |
1.8–2.8% |
1.7–3.0% |
1.5–3.2% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
2.1% |
2.0% |
1.6–2.4% |
1.5–2.6% |
1.4–2.7% |
1.3–2.9% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 |
2.4% |
0.9% |
0.7–1.2% |
0.6–1.3% |
0.6–1.4% |
0.5–1.6% |
Belang van Nederland |
0.0% |
0.8% |
0.6–1.1% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.5–1.3% |
0.4–1.5% |
50Plus |
1.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
Bij1 |
0.8% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.5% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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Confidence Intervals
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
54% |
99.9% |
Median |
27 |
43% |
46% |
|
28 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
29 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
30 |
2% |
2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
25 |
42% |
99.1% |
|
26 |
0.3% |
57% |
|
27 |
0.3% |
57% |
|
28 |
55% |
56% |
Median |
29 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
|
30 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
24 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
26 |
2% |
98.6% |
|
27 |
2% |
97% |
|
28 |
42% |
95% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
53% |
|
30 |
53% |
53% |
Median |
31 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
32 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
96% |
99.8% |
Median |
21 |
3% |
4% |
|
22 |
1.1% |
1.4% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
8 |
44% |
99.8% |
|
9 |
54% |
56% |
Median |
10 |
2% |
2% |
|
11 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
5 |
1.2% |
99.7% |
|
6 |
45% |
98.5% |
|
7 |
53% |
54% |
Median |
8 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
55% |
100% |
Median |
4 |
0.3% |
45% |
|
5 |
2% |
45% |
|
6 |
43% |
43% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
96% |
99.4% |
Median |
6 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
3 |
53% |
99.4% |
Median |
4 |
45% |
46% |
|
5 |
0.5% |
1.5% |
|
6 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
4 |
99.3% |
99.4% |
Median |
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
3 |
45% |
99.9% |
|
4 |
55% |
55% |
Median |
5 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
2% |
100% |
|
3 |
55% |
98% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
42% |
42% |
|
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
97% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
3% |
3% |
|
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
3% |
100% |
|
3 |
55% |
97% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
42% |
42% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
1 |
99.4% |
99.8% |
Median |
2 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Belang van Nederland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
1.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
98.7% |
98.9% |
Median |
2 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98.9% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
58% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
42% |
42% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Partij voor de Vrijheid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
77 |
66 |
0% |
66–67 |
66–67 |
64–67 |
61–67 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 |
75 |
67 |
0% |
61–67 |
61–67 |
61–67 |
60–67 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
67 |
65 |
0% |
63–65 |
63–65 |
62–65 |
60–65 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
74 |
63 |
0% |
63 |
63 |
62–63 |
58–65 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
62 |
0% |
57–62 |
57–62 |
57–62 |
54–62 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging |
52 |
61 |
0% |
59–61 |
59–61 |
58–61 |
56–61 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
60 |
0% |
59–60 |
59–60 |
58–60 |
52–61 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie |
51 |
58 |
0% |
53–58 |
53–58 |
53–58 |
50–58 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
70 |
52 |
0% |
46–52 |
46–52 |
46–52 |
46–54 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
78 |
47 |
0% |
43–47 |
43–47 |
42–47 |
40–47 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
61 |
45 |
0% |
40–45 |
40–45 |
40–45 |
40–48 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
73 |
43 |
0% |
40–43 |
40–43 |
39–43 |
36–43 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
56 |
41 |
0% |
37–41 |
37–41 |
37–41 |
37–44 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus |
61 |
40 |
0% |
40 |
40 |
37–40 |
35–40 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
60 |
40 |
0% |
40 |
39–40 |
36–40 |
34–40 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
50 |
37 |
0% |
37–38 |
37–38 |
34–38 |
31–38 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus |
58 |
37 |
0% |
36–37 |
36–37 |
34–37 |
32–37 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
57 |
37 |
0% |
36–37 |
36–37 |
34–37 |
32–37 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
37 |
36 |
0% |
32–36 |
32–36 |
32–36 |
31–38 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
49 |
34 |
0% |
32–34 |
32–34 |
30–34 |
26–34 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
32 |
32 |
0% |
29–32 |
29–32 |
29–32 |
28–34 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging |
18 |
31 |
0% |
31 |
31 |
31 |
30–35 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
39 |
13 |
0% |
12–13 |
12–13 |
12–13 |
12–14 |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
60 |
0% |
100% |
|
61 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
62 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
63 |
0.8% |
99.0% |
|
64 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
65 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
66 |
53% |
97% |
Median |
67 |
43% |
44% |
|
68 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
57 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
58 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
59 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
60 |
0.8% |
99.6% |
|
61 |
42% |
98.8% |
|
62 |
0.9% |
57% |
|
63 |
2% |
56% |
|
64 |
0.1% |
54% |
|
65 |
0.6% |
54% |
|
66 |
0% |
53% |
|
67 |
53% |
53% |
Median |
68 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
59 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
60 |
0.8% |
99.6% |
|
61 |
1.1% |
98.8% |
|
62 |
2% |
98% |
|
63 |
42% |
96% |
|
64 |
0.2% |
54% |
|
65 |
53% |
54% |
Median |
66 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
67 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Vrijheid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
58 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
59 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
60 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
61 |
0.8% |
98.8% |
|
62 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
63 |
95% |
97% |
Median |
64 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
65 |
2% |
2% |
|
66 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
53 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
54 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
55 |
0% |
98.8% |
|
56 |
1.1% |
98.7% |
|
57 |
42% |
98% |
|
58 |
0.2% |
56% |
|
59 |
2% |
56% |
|
60 |
0.6% |
54% |
|
61 |
0.2% |
53% |
|
62 |
53% |
53% |
Median |
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
55 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
56 |
0.8% |
99.7% |
|
57 |
1.1% |
98.8% |
|
58 |
2% |
98% |
|
59 |
42% |
96% |
|
60 |
0.1% |
54% |
|
61 |
54% |
54% |
Median |
62 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
63 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
64 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Vrijheid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
53 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
54 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
56 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
57 |
0.4% |
98.9% |
|
58 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
59 |
42% |
97% |
|
60 |
53% |
55% |
Median |
61 |
2% |
2% |
|
62 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
49 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
50 |
0.9% |
99.7% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
Last Result |
52 |
1.1% |
98.7% |
|
53 |
42% |
98% |
|
54 |
0.1% |
56% |
|
55 |
2% |
56% |
|
56 |
0.6% |
54% |
|
57 |
0% |
53% |
|
58 |
53% |
53% |
Median |
59 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
45 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
46 |
42% |
99.5% |
|
47 |
0.3% |
58% |
|
48 |
0.1% |
57% |
|
49 |
3% |
57% |
|
50 |
0% |
55% |
|
51 |
0.3% |
55% |
|
52 |
54% |
54% |
Median |
53 |
0% |
0.9% |
|
54 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
39 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
40 |
0.9% |
99.7% |
|
41 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
42 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
43 |
43% |
97% |
|
44 |
0.2% |
54% |
|
45 |
0.3% |
54% |
|
46 |
0.4% |
53% |
|
47 |
53% |
53% |
Median |
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
39 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
40 |
42% |
99.8% |
|
41 |
0.9% |
58% |
|
42 |
0.2% |
57% |
|
43 |
2% |
57% |
|
44 |
0.4% |
55% |
|
45 |
53% |
55% |
Median |
46 |
0% |
1.5% |
|
47 |
0.6% |
1.5% |
|
48 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
36 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
37 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
39 |
2% |
98.6% |
|
40 |
43% |
96% |
|
41 |
0.3% |
54% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
53% |
|
43 |
53% |
53% |
Median |
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
36 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
37 |
42% |
99.8% |
|
38 |
1.0% |
58% |
|
39 |
0.1% |
57% |
|
40 |
2% |
57% |
|
41 |
53% |
55% |
Median |
42 |
0% |
1.5% |
|
43 |
0.6% |
1.5% |
|
44 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
35 |
1.4% |
99.9% |
|
36 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
37 |
2% |
98% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
39 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
40 |
95% |
95% |
Median |
41 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.9% |
99.4% |
|
36 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
37 |
2% |
97% |
|
38 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
39 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
40 |
95% |
95% |
Median |
41 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
32 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
33 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
34 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
35 |
0.9% |
97% |
|
36 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
37 |
53% |
95% |
Median |
38 |
42% |
42% |
|
39 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
33 |
0.8% |
99.0% |
|
34 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
35 |
2% |
97% |
|
36 |
42% |
96% |
|
37 |
53% |
53% |
Median |
38 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
39 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
1.5% |
100% |
|
33 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
34 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
35 |
2% |
97% |
|
36 |
42% |
95% |
|
37 |
53% |
53% |
Median |
38 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
39 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
32 |
42% |
99.3% |
|
33 |
0.5% |
57% |
|
34 |
0.4% |
56% |
|
35 |
2% |
56% |
|
36 |
53% |
54% |
Median |
37 |
0% |
1.5% |
Last Result |
38 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
28 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
30 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
31 |
2% |
97% |
|
32 |
42% |
95% |
|
33 |
0.2% |
53% |
|
34 |
53% |
53% |
Median |
35 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
29 |
42% |
99.1% |
|
30 |
0.5% |
57% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
56% |
|
32 |
55% |
56% |
Last Result, Median |
33 |
0% |
1.5% |
|
34 |
1.4% |
1.5% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
31 |
97% |
99.0% |
Median |
32 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
33 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
35 |
1.4% |
1.5% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
12 |
44% |
99.6% |
|
13 |
54% |
56% |
Median |
14 |
2% |
2% |
|
15 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: I&O Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 20–21 November 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 2076
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.61%