Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 20–21 November 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Partij voor de Vrijheid |
10.8% |
17.7% |
16.6–18.8% |
16.3–19.1% |
16.1–19.4% |
15.6–19.9% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid |
10.9% |
17.7% |
16.6–18.8% |
16.3–19.1% |
16.1–19.4% |
15.6–19.9% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie |
21.9% |
17.4% |
16.4–18.5% |
16.1–18.8% |
15.8–19.1% |
15.3–19.6% |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract |
0.0% |
13.8% |
12.8–14.8% |
12.6–15.1% |
12.4–15.3% |
11.9–15.8% |
Democraten 66 |
15.0% |
6.0% |
5.3–6.7% |
5.2–6.9% |
5.0–7.1% |
4.7–7.4% |
Socialistische Partij |
6.0% |
4.0% |
3.5–4.6% |
3.4–4.8% |
3.2–4.9% |
3.0–5.2% |
BoerBurgerBeweging |
1.0% |
3.3% |
2.8–3.8% |
2.7–4.0% |
2.6–4.1% |
2.4–4.4% |
Partij voor de Dieren |
3.8% |
3.3% |
2.8–3.8% |
2.7–4.0% |
2.6–4.1% |
2.4–4.4% |
Forum voor Democratie |
5.0% |
2.8% |
2.4–3.3% |
2.3–3.5% |
2.2–3.6% |
2.0–3.9% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
9.5% |
2.6% |
2.2–3.1% |
2.1–3.3% |
2.0–3.4% |
1.8–3.6% |
ChristenUnie |
3.4% |
2.4% |
2.0–2.9% |
1.9–3.0% |
1.8–3.2% |
1.7–3.4% |
Volt Europa |
2.4% |
2.2% |
1.8–2.7% |
1.8–2.8% |
1.7–3.0% |
1.5–3.2% |
DENK |
2.0% |
2.2% |
1.8–2.7% |
1.8–2.8% |
1.7–3.0% |
1.5–3.2% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
2.1% |
2.0% |
1.6–2.4% |
1.5–2.6% |
1.4–2.7% |
1.3–2.9% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 |
2.4% |
0.9% |
0.7–1.2% |
0.6–1.3% |
0.6–1.4% |
0.5–1.6% |
Belang van Nederland |
0.0% |
0.8% |
0.6–1.1% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.5–1.3% |
0.4–1.5% |
50Plus |
1.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
Bij1 |
0.8% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.5% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
54% |
99.9% |
Median |
27 |
43% |
46% |
|
28 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
29 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
30 |
2% |
2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
25 |
42% |
99.1% |
|
26 |
0.3% |
57% |
|
27 |
0.3% |
57% |
|
28 |
55% |
56% |
Median |
29 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
|
30 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
24 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
26 |
2% |
98.6% |
|
27 |
2% |
97% |
|
28 |
42% |
95% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
53% |
|
30 |
53% |
53% |
Median |
31 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
32 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
96% |
99.8% |
Median |
21 |
3% |
4% |
|
22 |
1.1% |
1.4% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
8 |
44% |
99.8% |
|
9 |
54% |
56% |
Median |
10 |
2% |
2% |
|
11 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
5 |
1.2% |
99.7% |
|
6 |
45% |
98.5% |
|
7 |
53% |
54% |
Median |
8 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
55% |
100% |
Median |
4 |
0.3% |
45% |
|
5 |
2% |
45% |
|
6 |
43% |
43% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
96% |
99.4% |
Median |
6 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
3 |
53% |
99.4% |
Median |
4 |
45% |
46% |
|
5 |
0.5% |
1.5% |
|
6 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
4 |
99.3% |
99.4% |
Median |
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
3 |
45% |
99.9% |
|
4 |
55% |
55% |
Median |
5 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
2% |
100% |
|
3 |
55% |
98% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
42% |
42% |
|
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
97% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
3% |
3% |
|
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
3% |
100% |
|
3 |
55% |
97% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
42% |
42% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
1 |
99.4% |
99.8% |
Median |
2 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Belang van Nederland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
1.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
98.7% |
98.9% |
Median |
2 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98.9% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
58% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
42% |
42% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Partij voor de Vrijheid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
77 |
66 |
0% |
66–67 |
66–67 |
64–67 |
61–67 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 |
75 |
67 |
0% |
61–67 |
61–67 |
61–67 |
60–67 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
67 |
65 |
0% |
63–65 |
63–65 |
62–65 |
60–65 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
74 |
63 |
0% |
63 |
63 |
62–63 |
58–65 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
62 |
0% |
57–62 |
57–62 |
57–62 |
54–62 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging |
52 |
61 |
0% |
59–61 |
59–61 |
58–61 |
56–61 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
60 |
0% |
59–60 |
59–60 |
58–60 |
52–61 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie |
51 |
58 |
0% |
53–58 |
53–58 |
53–58 |
50–58 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
70 |
52 |
0% |
46–52 |
46–52 |
46–52 |
46–54 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
78 |
47 |
0% |
43–47 |
43–47 |
42–47 |
40–47 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
61 |
45 |
0% |
40–45 |
40–45 |
40–45 |
40–48 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
73 |
43 |
0% |
40–43 |
40–43 |
39–43 |
36–43 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
56 |
41 |
0% |
37–41 |
37–41 |
37–41 |
37–44 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus |
61 |
40 |
0% |
40 |
40 |
37–40 |
35–40 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
60 |
40 |
0% |
40 |
39–40 |
36–40 |
34–40 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
50 |
37 |
0% |
37–38 |
37–38 |
34–38 |
31–38 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus |
58 |
37 |
0% |
36–37 |
36–37 |
34–37 |
32–37 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
57 |
37 |
0% |
36–37 |
36–37 |
34–37 |
32–37 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
37 |
36 |
0% |
32–36 |
32–36 |
32–36 |
31–38 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
49 |
34 |
0% |
32–34 |
32–34 |
30–34 |
26–34 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
32 |
32 |
0% |
29–32 |
29–32 |
29–32 |
28–34 |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging |
18 |
31 |
0% |
31 |
31 |
31 |
30–35 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
39 |
13 |
0% |
12–13 |
12–13 |
12–13 |
12–14 |
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
60 |
0% |
100% |
|
61 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
62 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
63 |
0.8% |
99.0% |
|
64 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
65 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
66 |
53% |
97% |
Median |
67 |
43% |
44% |
|
68 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
57 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
58 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
59 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
60 |
0.8% |
99.6% |
|
61 |
42% |
98.8% |
|
62 |
0.9% |
57% |
|
63 |
2% |
56% |
|
64 |
0.1% |
54% |
|
65 |
0.6% |
54% |
|
66 |
0% |
53% |
|
67 |
53% |
53% |
Median |
68 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
59 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
60 |
0.8% |
99.6% |
|
61 |
1.1% |
98.8% |
|
62 |
2% |
98% |
|
63 |
42% |
96% |
|
64 |
0.2% |
54% |
|
65 |
53% |
54% |
Median |
66 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
67 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Vrijheid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
58 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
59 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
60 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
61 |
0.8% |
98.8% |
|
62 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
63 |
95% |
97% |
Median |
64 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
65 |
2% |
2% |
|
66 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
53 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
54 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
55 |
0% |
98.8% |
|
56 |
1.1% |
98.7% |
|
57 |
42% |
98% |
|
58 |
0.2% |
56% |
|
59 |
2% |
56% |
|
60 |
0.6% |
54% |
|
61 |
0.2% |
53% |
|
62 |
53% |
53% |
Median |
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
55 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
56 |
0.8% |
99.7% |
|
57 |
1.1% |
98.8% |
|
58 |
2% |
98% |
|
59 |
42% |
96% |
|
60 |
0.1% |
54% |
|
61 |
54% |
54% |
Median |
62 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
63 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
64 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Vrijheid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
53 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
54 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
56 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
57 |
0.4% |
98.9% |
|
58 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
59 |
42% |
97% |
|
60 |
53% |
55% |
Median |
61 |
2% |
2% |
|
62 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
49 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
50 |
0.9% |
99.7% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
Last Result |
52 |
1.1% |
98.7% |
|
53 |
42% |
98% |
|
54 |
0.1% |
56% |
|
55 |
2% |
56% |
|
56 |
0.6% |
54% |
|
57 |
0% |
53% |
|
58 |
53% |
53% |
Median |
59 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
45 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
46 |
42% |
99.5% |
|
47 |
0.3% |
58% |
|
48 |
0.1% |
57% |
|
49 |
3% |
57% |
|
50 |
0% |
55% |
|
51 |
0.3% |
55% |
|
52 |
54% |
54% |
Median |
53 |
0% |
0.9% |
|
54 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
39 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
40 |
0.9% |
99.7% |
|
41 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
42 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
43 |
43% |
97% |
|
44 |
0.2% |
54% |
|
45 |
0.3% |
54% |
|
46 |
0.4% |
53% |
|
47 |
53% |
53% |
Median |
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
39 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
40 |
42% |
99.8% |
|
41 |
0.9% |
58% |
|
42 |
0.2% |
57% |
|
43 |
2% |
57% |
|
44 |
0.4% |
55% |
|
45 |
53% |
55% |
Median |
46 |
0% |
1.5% |
|
47 |
0.6% |
1.5% |
|
48 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
36 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
37 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
39 |
2% |
98.6% |
|
40 |
43% |
96% |
|
41 |
0.3% |
54% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
53% |
|
43 |
53% |
53% |
Median |
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
36 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
37 |
42% |
99.8% |
|
38 |
1.0% |
58% |
|
39 |
0.1% |
57% |
|
40 |
2% |
57% |
|
41 |
53% |
55% |
Median |
42 |
0% |
1.5% |
|
43 |
0.6% |
1.5% |
|
44 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
35 |
1.4% |
99.9% |
|
36 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
37 |
2% |
98% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
39 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
40 |
95% |
95% |
Median |
41 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.9% |
99.4% |
|
36 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
37 |
2% |
97% |
|
38 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
39 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
40 |
95% |
95% |
Median |
41 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
32 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
33 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
34 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
35 |
0.9% |
97% |
|
36 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
37 |
53% |
95% |
Median |
38 |
42% |
42% |
|
39 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
33 |
0.8% |
99.0% |
|
34 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
35 |
2% |
97% |
|
36 |
42% |
96% |
|
37 |
53% |
53% |
Median |
38 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
39 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
1.5% |
100% |
|
33 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
34 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
35 |
2% |
97% |
|
36 |
42% |
95% |
|
37 |
53% |
53% |
Median |
38 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
39 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
32 |
42% |
99.3% |
|
33 |
0.5% |
57% |
|
34 |
0.4% |
56% |
|
35 |
2% |
56% |
|
36 |
53% |
54% |
Median |
37 |
0% |
1.5% |
Last Result |
38 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
28 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
30 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
31 |
2% |
97% |
|
32 |
42% |
95% |
|
33 |
0.2% |
53% |
|
34 |
53% |
53% |
Median |
35 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
29 |
42% |
99.1% |
|
30 |
0.5% |
57% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
56% |
|
32 |
55% |
56% |
Last Result, Median |
33 |
0% |
1.5% |
|
34 |
1.4% |
1.5% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – BoerBurgerBeweging
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
31 |
97% |
99.0% |
Median |
32 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
33 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
35 |
1.4% |
1.5% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
12 |
44% |
99.6% |
|
13 |
54% |
56% |
Median |
14 |
2% |
2% |
|
15 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: I&O Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 20–21 November 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 2076
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.61%