Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 18–25 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 34.2% 32.4–36.1% 31.9–36.6% 31.5–37.1% 30.7–38.0%
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 20.5% 19.0–22.1% 18.6–22.6% 18.2–23.0% 17.5–23.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 18.4% 17.0–20.0% 16.6–20.4% 16.2–20.8% 15.6–21.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 11.0% 9.9–12.3% 9.6–12.7% 9.3–13.0% 8.8–13.7%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.4–6.7% 4.2–6.9% 3.9–7.4%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 4.5% 3.8–5.4% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–5.9% 3.1–6.4%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 4.5% 3.8–5.4% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–5.9% 3.1–6.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 30 41 38–44 37–44 36–45 35–47
Eesti Keskerakond 27 22 21–25 20–26 20–26 18–27
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 20 18–22 18–23 17–24 16–25
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 11 10–13 9–13 9–14 8–15
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 5 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Isamaa 14 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.8% 99.7%  
36 2% 98.9%  
37 5% 97%  
38 11% 92%  
39 14% 82%  
40 16% 68%  
41 18% 52% Median
42 13% 34%  
43 10% 22%  
44 7% 11%  
45 3% 5%  
46 1.0% 2%  
47 0.5% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.5% 100%  
19 1.1% 99.5%  
20 5% 98%  
21 11% 93%  
22 36% 82% Median
23 19% 47%  
24 15% 28%  
25 6% 13%  
26 5% 8%  
27 2% 2% Last Result
28 0.3% 0.4%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.7% 99.9%  
17 3% 99.2%  
18 10% 96%  
19 18% 86%  
20 25% 68% Median
21 21% 43%  
22 13% 22%  
23 6% 9%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.5% 0.6%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.6% 100%  
9 6% 99.4%  
10 18% 93%  
11 31% 75% Median
12 30% 44%  
13 11% 14%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
16 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 26% 100%  
1 0% 74%  
2 0% 74%  
3 0% 74%  
4 9% 74%  
5 48% 65% Median
6 15% 17%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 75% 100% Median
1 0% 25%  
2 0% 25%  
3 0% 25%  
4 10% 25%  
5 14% 15%  
6 1.0% 1.0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 75% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 25%  
2 0% 25%  
3 0% 25%  
4 11% 25%  
5 13% 14%  
6 1.1% 1.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 84 100% 80–88 79–89 78–90 76–91
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 57 63 100% 60–67 59–68 58–69 57–70
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 62 100% 58–66 58–66 57–67 55–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 61 100% 57–65 57–66 56–66 54–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Vabaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 67 57 99.0% 53–60 52–61 51–62 50–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 53 83% 50–57 49–57 48–58 47–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 52 70% 49–55 48–56 47–57 45–59
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 43 0.1% 40–46 39–47 39–48 37–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 42 0% 39–45 38–46 37–47 36–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 35 0% 32–39 32–40 31–41 30–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 34 0% 31–37 31–37 30–38 29–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 32 0% 29–34 28–35 28–36 27–37

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.4% 99.9%  
76 0.6% 99.5%  
77 1.1% 98.9%  
78 2% 98%  
79 5% 96%  
80 9% 91%  
81 9% 82%  
82 7% 73%  
83 10% 66% Median
84 18% 56%  
85 16% 38%  
86 7% 22%  
87 4% 16%  
88 3% 12%  
89 5% 9%  
90 3% 4%  
91 0.8% 0.9%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.8% 99.5% Last Result
58 2% 98.7%  
59 4% 97%  
60 8% 93%  
61 10% 85%  
62 12% 75%  
63 17% 62% Median
64 11% 45%  
65 12% 34%  
66 9% 22%  
67 6% 12%  
68 4% 7%  
69 1.4% 3%  
70 1.0% 1.3%  
71 0.3% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result, Majority
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.9%  
56 1.0% 99.4%  
57 3% 98%  
58 6% 96%  
59 8% 90%  
60 8% 82%  
61 15% 74% Median
62 19% 59%  
63 13% 41%  
64 8% 28%  
65 8% 20%  
66 8% 12%  
67 3% 5%  
68 1.0% 2%  
69 0.5% 0.8%  
70 0.3% 0.4%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100% Majority
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.6% 99.6%  
55 1.1% 99.0%  
56 3% 98%  
57 6% 95%  
58 10% 89%  
59 11% 79%  
60 11% 68%  
61 15% 57% Median
62 17% 43%  
63 10% 26%  
64 4% 15%  
65 4% 11%  
66 4% 7%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0.5% 0.7%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Vabaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.7% 99.7%  
51 2% 99.0% Majority
52 3% 97%  
53 5% 95%  
54 6% 90%  
55 11% 83%  
56 14% 72%  
57 16% 58% Median
58 15% 42%  
59 14% 28%  
60 7% 14%  
61 4% 7%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.5% 0.6%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 0.8% 99.6%  
48 3% 98.8%  
49 4% 96%  
50 9% 92%  
51 12% 83% Majority
52 13% 71% Median
53 15% 58%  
54 15% 43%  
55 10% 28%  
56 8% 19%  
57 6% 11%  
58 3% 5%  
59 1.4% 2% Last Result
60 0.5% 0.7%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
46 1.0% 99.5%  
47 2% 98.5%  
48 5% 96%  
49 9% 91%  
50 13% 82%  
51 15% 70% Majority
52 15% 55% Median
53 13% 40%  
54 12% 27%  
55 7% 16%  
56 4% 9%  
57 3% 5%  
58 1.4% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.5% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.4%  
39 4% 98%  
40 7% 93%  
41 11% 86%  
42 18% 75% Median
43 16% 57%  
44 16% 41%  
45 12% 25%  
46 7% 13%  
47 4% 6%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.6% 1.0%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 0.9% 99.7%  
37 2% 98.8%  
38 6% 97%  
39 9% 90%  
40 12% 81%  
41 18% 69% Median
42 13% 52%  
43 14% 39%  
44 9% 24% Last Result
45 7% 15%  
46 5% 8%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.6% 1.3%  
49 0.6% 0.7%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.4% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.5%  
31 3% 98%  
32 5% 95%  
33 15% 90% Median
34 21% 75%  
35 16% 54%  
36 12% 38%  
37 9% 27%  
38 6% 18%  
39 6% 12%  
40 3% 6%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.6% 0.8%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 1.0% 99.8%  
30 4% 98.8%  
31 7% 95%  
32 9% 88%  
33 19% 80% Median
34 23% 61%  
35 17% 38%  
36 11% 21%  
37 5% 10%  
38 3% 5%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0.4% 0.6%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.5%  
28 4% 98%  
29 9% 93%  
30 16% 84%  
31 19% 69% Median
32 16% 50%  
33 17% 34%  
34 10% 17%  
35 5% 7%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.4% 0.6%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations