Erakond Isamaa
Voting Intentions
Last result: 13.7% (General Election of 1 March 2015)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 10.7% | 9.5–12.7% | 9.2–13.3% | 9.0–13.7% | 8.4–14.6% |
| 24 February–1 March 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
12.3% | 11.1–13.7% | 10.7–14.1% | 10.4–14.5% | 9.8–15.2% |
| 26–28 February 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
10.1% | 9.0–11.4% | 8.7–11.7% | 8.5–12.0% | 8.0–12.6% |
| 18–24 February 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
9.3% | 8.2–10.6% | 7.9–10.9% | 7.6–11.2% | 7.1–11.9% |
| 7–20 February 2019 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
10.0% | 9.5–10.6% | 9.3–10.8% | 9.2–10.9% | 8.9–11.2% |
| 14–20 February 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
9.2% | 8.2–10.4% | 7.9–10.7% | 7.7–11.0% | 7.3–11.6% |
| 12–18 February 2019 | OÜ Faktum & Ariko | 11.1% | 10.0–12.4% | 9.7–12.7% | 9.4–13.0% | 8.9–13.7% |
| 11–17 February 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
12.9% | 11.6–14.4% | 11.3–14.8% | 11.0–15.1% | 10.4–15.9% |
| 4–11 February 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
7.7% | 6.7–8.9% | 6.4–9.2% | 6.2–9.5% | 5.8–10.1% |
| 4–7 February 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
8.6% | 7.6–9.8% | 7.4–10.1% | 7.1–10.4% | 6.7–11.0% |
| 28 January–4 February 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
7.3% | 6.3–8.5% | 6.1–8.8% | 5.8–9.1% | 5.4–9.7% |
| 24–29 January 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
7.5% | 6.5–8.7% | 6.2–9.0% | 6.0–9.3% | 5.6–9.9% |
| 15–28 January 2019 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 21–27 January 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
9.1% | 8.0–10.4% | 7.7–10.7% | 7.5–11.1% | 7.0–11.7% |
| 14–21 January 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
6.5% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.1–8.2% | 4.7–8.8% |
| 7–13 January 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
6.8% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.7–8.2% | 5.5–8.5% | 5.0–9.0% |
| 3–9 January 2019 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
9.0% | 8.0–10.3% | 7.7–10.6% | 7.4–11.0% | 6.9–11.6% |
| 4–8 January 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
8.0% | 7.1–9.0% | 6.9–9.3% | 6.6–9.6% | 6.2–10.1% |
| 13–19 December 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
| 5–12 December 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
7.8% | 6.7–9.1% | 6.4–9.4% | 6.2–9.8% | 5.7–10.4% |
| 27 November–10 December 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| 31 October–13 November 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| 8–13 November 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
4.6% | 3.9–5.6% | 3.7–5.9% | 3.5–6.1% | 3.2–6.6% |
| 11–18 October 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
5.1% | 4.3–6.2% | 4.1–6.5% | 3.9–6.7% | 3.6–7.3% |
| 2–15 October 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| 12–20 September 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
4.9% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.7–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| 4–17 September 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| 8–26 August 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| 15–22 August 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
5.2% | 4.3–6.4% | 4.1–6.8% | 3.9–7.1% | 3.5–7.7% |
| 24–30 July 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
5.3% | 4.4–6.5% | 4.1–6.9% | 3.9–7.2% | 3.5–7.8% |
| 1–17 June 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
7.0% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.7–8.6% | 5.5–8.9% | 5.0–9.5% |
| 29 May–11 June 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| 21 May 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| 21 May 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
5.0% | 4.2–6.1% | 4.0–6.4% | 3.8–6.7% | 3.4–7.3% |
| 19 April 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–6.0% |
| 12–18 April 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
5.8% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.7–7.3% | 4.5–7.6% | 4.1–8.1% |
| 8–21 March 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| 8–14 March 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
4.1% | 3.4–5.1% | 3.2–5.4% | 3.0–5.6% | 2.7–6.1% |
| 1–25 February 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
5.9% | 5.0–7.1% | 4.8–7.4% | 4.6–7.7% | 4.2–8.3% |
| 7–20 February 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
6.0% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 15–29 January 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| 18–25 January 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
4.5% | 3.8–5.4% | 3.6–5.7% | 3.4–5.9% | 3.1–6.4% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Erakond Isamaa.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 10% | 99.2% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 35% | 89% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 24% | 54% | Median |
| 11.5–12.5% | 17% | 29% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 9% | 13% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 14 seats (General Election of 1 March 2015)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 11 | 10–13 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 8–15 |
| 24 February–1 March 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
12 | 11–14 | 10–15 | 10–15 | 10–16 |
| 26–28 February 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
10 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 |
| 18–24 February 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 7–12 |
| 7–20 February 2019 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
10 | 10–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–12 |
| 14–20 February 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
8 | 8–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 7–11 |
| 12–18 February 2019 | OÜ Faktum & Ariko | 12 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 9–15 |
| 11–17 February 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
13 | 12–15 | 11–16 | 11–16 | 10–17 |
| 4–11 February 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
7 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| 4–7 February 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 6–11 |
| 28 January–4 February 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
7 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| 24–29 January 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
7 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| 15–28 January 2019 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
6 | 5–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| 21–27 January 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
9 | 8–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 7–12 |
| 14–21 January 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 0–9 |
| 7–13 January 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| 3–9 January 2019 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
9 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 6–12 |
| 4–8 January 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| 13–19 December 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 5–10 |
| 5–12 December 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 5–10 |
| 27 November–10 December 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
4 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| 31 October–13 November 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
0 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| 8–13 November 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| 11–18 October 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
4 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| 2–15 October 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
4 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| 12–20 September 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
0 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| 4–17 September 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8–26 August 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
4 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| 15–22 August 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
4 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| 24–30 July 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
| 1–17 June 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 0–9 |
| 29 May–11 June 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
4 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| 21 May 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
4 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| 21 May 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
4 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| 19 April 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
0 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 12–18 April 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
5 | 4–6 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
| 8–21 March 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
0 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| 8–14 March 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 1–25 February 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
5 | 0–6 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| 7–20 February 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
5 | 4–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| 15–29 January 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
4 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| 18–25 January 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Erakond Isamaa.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 8% | 98.8% | |
| 10 | 29% | 91% | |
| 11 | 26% | 62% | Median |
| 12 | 18% | 36% | |
| 13 | 10% | 18% | |
| 14 | 6% | 8% | Last Result |
| 15 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |