Eesti Vabaerakond
Voting Intentions
Last result: 8.7% (General Election of 1 March 2015)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 1.7% | 0.7–2.3% | 0.6–2.4% | 0.5–2.6% | 0.3–3.0% |
| 24 February–1 March 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
| 26–28 February 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
1.3% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.7–2.5% |
| 18–24 February 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 7–20 February 2019 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
2.0% | 1.8–2.3% | 1.7–2.4% | 1.6–2.4% | 1.5–2.6% |
| 14–20 February 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
0.9% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–1.9% |
| 12–18 February 2019 | OÜ Faktum & Ariko | 2.0% | 1.5–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.1–3.3% |
| 11–17 February 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 4–11 February 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
1.3% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.6–2.5% |
| 4–7 February 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
0.7% | 0.5–1.1% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.3–1.6% |
| 28 January–4 February 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
| 24–29 January 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
1.7% | 1.3–2.4% | 1.2–2.5% | 1.1–2.7% | 0.9–3.1% |
| 15–28 January 2019 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 21–27 January 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–2.0% |
| 14–21 January 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| 7–13 January 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–1.0% |
| 3–9 January 2019 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 4–8 January 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
1.4% | 1.1–1.9% | 1.0–2.1% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.5% |
| 13–19 December 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 5–12 December 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
1.9% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.3–2.9% | 1.2–3.1% | 1.0–3.5% |
| 27 November–10 December 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 31 October–13 November 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 8–13 November 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.7–3.3% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.4–3.9% |
| 11–18 October 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
1.8% | 1.3–2.5% | 1.2–2.7% | 1.1–2.8% | 0.9–3.2% |
| 2–15 October 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| 12–20 September 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
3.4% | 2.7–4.3% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.4–4.7% | 2.1–5.2% |
| 4–17 September 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| 8–26 August 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| 15–22 August 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
4.7% | 3.8–5.9% | 3.6–6.2% | 3.4–6.5% | 3.0–7.1% |
| 24–30 July 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
3.0% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% | 2.0–4.5% | 1.7–5.0% |
| 1–17 June 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
3.0% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.0–4.3% | 1.8–4.8% |
| 29 May–11 June 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| 21 May 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| 21 May 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
4.0% | 3.3–5.0% | 3.1–5.3% | 2.9–5.5% | 2.6–6.0% |
| 19 April 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 1.9–4.8% |
| 12–18 April 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
5.8% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.7–7.3% | 4.5–7.6% | 4.1–8.1% |
| 8–21 March 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.8–4.7% |
| 8–14 March 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
5.0% | 4.2–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.8–6.6% | 3.4–7.2% |
| 1–25 February 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
7.0% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.7–8.6% | 5.5–8.9% | 5.0–9.5% |
| 7–20 February 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.8% |
| 15–29 January 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| 18–25 January 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
5.4% | 4.6–6.4% | 4.4–6.7% | 4.2–6.9% | 3.9–7.4% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Eesti Vabaerakond.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 5% | 100% | |
| 0.5–1.5% | 39% | 95% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 53% | 56% | Median |
| 2.5–3.5% | 3% | 3% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Seats
Last result: 8 seats (General Election of 1 March 2015)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 February–1 March 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 26–28 February 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18–24 February 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7–20 February 2019 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14–20 February 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12–18 February 2019 | OÜ Faktum & Ariko | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11–17 February 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4–11 February 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4–7 February 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 January–4 February 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24–29 January 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15–28 January 2019 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21–27 January 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14–21 January 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7–13 January 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3–9 January 2019 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4–8 January 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13–19 December 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5–12 December 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 November–10 December 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 October–13 November 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8–13 November 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11–18 October 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2–15 October 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12–20 September 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–5 |
| 4–17 September 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8–26 August 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15–22 August 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| 24–30 July 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1–17 June 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 May–11 June 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 21 May 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 May 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
0 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 19 April 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12–18 April 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
5 | 0–6 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
| 8–21 March 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8–14 March 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
4 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| 1–25 February 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 0–9 |
| 7–20 February 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 15–29 January 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 18–25 January 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Eesti Vabaerakond.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |