Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
Voting Intentions
Last result: 15.2% (General Election of 1 March 2015)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 11.5% | 10.4–13.2% | 10.2–13.6% | 9.9–14.1% | 9.3–14.9% |
| 24 February–1 March 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
12.5% | 11.2–13.9% | 10.9–14.3% | 10.6–14.7% | 10.0–15.4% |
| 26–28 February 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
11.9% | 10.7–13.2% | 10.4–13.6% | 10.1–13.9% | 9.6–14.6% |
| 18–24 February 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
12.0% | 10.8–13.4% | 10.4–13.8% | 10.1–14.2% | 9.6–14.9% |
| 7–20 February 2019 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
11.0% | 10.4–11.6% | 10.3–11.8% | 10.1–11.9% | 9.9–12.2% |
| 14–20 February 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
10.1% | 9.0–11.3% | 8.7–11.6% | 8.5–11.9% | 8.0–12.5% |
| 12–18 February 2019 | OÜ Faktum & Ariko | 11.1% | 10.0–12.4% | 9.7–12.7% | 9.4–13.0% | 8.9–13.7% |
| 11–17 February 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
8.4% | 7.4–9.6% | 7.1–10.0% | 6.8–10.3% | 6.4–10.9% |
| 4–11 February 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
9.1% | 8.0–10.4% | 7.7–10.7% | 7.5–11.1% | 7.0–11.7% |
| 4–7 February 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
11.5% | 10.4–12.8% | 10.1–13.2% | 9.8–13.5% | 9.3–14.2% |
| 28 January–4 February 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
11.0% | 9.8–12.4% | 9.5–12.8% | 9.2–13.1% | 8.7–13.8% |
| 24–29 January 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
9.7% | 8.6–11.0% | 8.3–11.4% | 8.0–11.7% | 7.5–12.3% |
| 15–28 January 2019 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.3% |
| 21–27 January 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
7.2% | 6.2–8.4% | 6.0–8.7% | 5.7–9.0% | 5.3–9.6% |
| 14–21 January 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
7.7% | 6.7–8.9% | 6.4–9.2% | 6.2–9.5% | 5.8–10.1% |
| 7–13 January 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
9.6% | 8.6–10.9% | 8.2–11.2% | 8.0–11.5% | 7.5–12.2% |
| 3–9 January 2019 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
12.0% | 10.8–13.4% | 10.4–13.8% | 10.1–14.1% | 9.6–14.8% |
| 4–8 January 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
11.8% | 10.7–13.0% | 10.4–13.3% | 10.2–13.6% | 9.7–14.2% |
| 13–19 December 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
12.0% | 10.8–13.4% | 10.4–13.8% | 10.1–14.2% | 9.6–14.9% |
| 5–12 December 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
9.2% | 8.0–10.5% | 7.7–10.9% | 7.4–11.3% | 6.9–11.9% |
| 27 November–10 December 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
| 31 October–13 November 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.3% |
| 8–13 November 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
10.7% | 9.6–12.0% | 9.3–12.4% | 9.0–12.7% | 8.5–13.4% |
| 11–18 October 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
14.0% | 12.7–15.6% | 12.3–16.0% | 12.0–16.4% | 11.4–17.2% |
| 2–15 October 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
12.0% | 10.8–13.4% | 10.4–13.8% | 10.1–14.2% | 9.6–14.9% |
| 12–20 September 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
12.5% | 11.3–14.0% | 10.9–14.4% | 10.6–14.8% | 10.0–15.5% |
| 4–17 September 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
14.0% | 12.7–15.5% | 12.3–15.9% | 12.0–16.3% | 11.4–17.0% |
| 8–26 August 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
11.0% | 9.8–12.4% | 9.5–12.8% | 9.2–13.1% | 8.7–13.8% |
| 15–22 August 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
12.8% | 11.3–14.4% | 10.9–14.9% | 10.5–15.3% | 9.9–16.2% |
| 24–30 July 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
12.8% | 11.4–14.5% | 10.9–15.0% | 10.6–15.5% | 9.9–16.3% |
| 1–17 June 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
14.0% | 12.5–15.6% | 12.1–16.0% | 11.8–16.4% | 11.2–17.2% |
| 29 May–11 June 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
9.0% | 7.9–10.2% | 7.6–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 6.9–11.6% |
| 21 May 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.6–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 6.9–11.6% |
| 21 May 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
11.9% | 10.6–13.4% | 10.2–13.8% | 9.9–14.2% | 9.3–15.0% |
| 19 April 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
6.1% | 5.2–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.4–8.3% |
| 12–18 April 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
10.6% | 9.4–12.0% | 9.0–12.4% | 8.7–12.7% | 8.2–13.5% |
| 8–21 March 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
10.0% | 8.9–11.4% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.1% | 7.8–12.7% |
| 8–14 March 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
10.6% | 9.4–12.0% | 9.0–12.4% | 8.7–12.8% | 8.2–13.5% |
| 1–25 February 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
11.0% | 9.7–12.5% | 9.4–12.9% | 9.1–13.2% | 8.5–14.0% |
| 7–20 February 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
| 15–29 January 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
11.0% | 9.8–12.3% | 9.5–12.7% | 9.2–13.1% | 8.6–13.7% |
| 18–25 January 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
11.0% | 9.9–12.3% | 9.6–12.7% | 9.3–13.0% | 8.8–13.7% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 11% | 98.9% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 39% | 88% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 27% | 49% | Median |
| 12.5–13.5% | 15% | 21% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 5% | 6% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 15 seats (General Election of 1 March 2015)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 12 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 9–16 |
| 24 February–1 March 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
13 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 10–15 | 10–16 |
| 26–28 February 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
12 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 10–16 |
| 18–24 February 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
12 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–15 | 9–16 |
| 7–20 February 2019 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
11 | 11–12 | 11–12 | 10–12 | 10–13 |
| 14–20 February 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
10 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 8–12 |
| 12–18 February 2019 | OÜ Faktum & Ariko | 12 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 9–15 |
| 11–17 February 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
8 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 6–11 |
| 4–11 February 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
9 | 8–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 6–12 |
| 4–7 February 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
11 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 | 9–14 |
| 28 January–4 February 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
11 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 9–14 |
| 24–29 January 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 7–13 |
| 15–28 January 2019 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 4–9 |
| 21–27 January 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| 14–21 January 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| 7–13 January 2019 | Norstat MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut |
10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 7–12 |
| 3–9 January 2019 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
12 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 9–16 |
| 4–8 January 2019 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
12 | 11–13 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 9–15 |
| 13–19 December 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
12 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 9–16 |
| 5–12 December 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
9 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 6–12 |
| 27 November–10 December 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 5–11 |
| 31 October–13 November 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 4–10 |
| 8–13 November 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
11 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| 11–18 October 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
15 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–18 | 12–19 |
| 2–15 October 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
12 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 9–16 |
| 12–20 September 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
14 | 12–15 | 11–16 | 11–16 | 10–17 |
| 4–17 September 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
15 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 12–17 | 11–18 |
| 8–26 August 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
11 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 8–15 |
| 15–22 August 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
13 | 11–15 | 11–16 | 10–16 | 10–17 |
| 24–30 July 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
13 | 11–15 | 11–16 | 10–16 | 10–17 |
| 1–17 June 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
14 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 11–17 | 11–18 |
| 29 May–11 June 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
9 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 6–12 |
| 21 May 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
9 | 8–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 6–12 |
| 21 May 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
12 | 11–14 | 10–15 | 10–15 | 9–16 |
| 19 April 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
6 | 5–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| 12–18 April 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
10 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 7–14 |
| 8–21 March 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
10 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 7–13 |
| 8–14 March 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
11 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 8–13 | 8–14 |
| 1–25 February 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
11 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| 7–20 February 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 5–10 |
| 15–29 January 2018 | Turu-uuringute AS ERR |
11 | 10–13 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 9–15 |
| 18–25 January 2018 | Kantar Emor BNS and Postimees |
11 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 8–15 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 10 | 6% | 99.3% | |
| 11 | 28% | 93% | |
| 12 | 33% | 66% | Median |
| 13 | 20% | 33% | |
| 14 | 9% | 13% | |
| 15 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 16 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |