Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 8.1% (General Election of 1 March 2015)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 17.4% 16.3–19.1% 15.9–19.6% 15.6–20.0% 14.9–20.8%
24 February–1 March 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 17.7% 16.2–19.3% 15.8–19.8% 15.5–20.2% 14.8–21.0%
26–28 February 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 17.3% 15.9–18.8% 15.5–19.2% 15.2–19.6% 14.5–20.3%
18–24 February 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 18.8% 17.3–20.4% 16.8–20.9% 16.5–21.3% 15.8–22.1%
7–20 February 2019 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 17.0% 16.3–17.7% 16.1–17.9% 16.0–18.1% 15.6–18.5%
14–20 February 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 21.3% 19.9–22.9% 19.4–23.4% 19.1–23.8% 18.4–24.6%
12–18 February 2019 OÜ Faktum & Ariko 18.1% 16.8–19.7% 16.4–20.1% 16.0–20.5% 15.4–21.2%
11–17 February 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 15.2% 13.8–16.8% 13.4–17.2% 13.1–17.6% 12.5–18.3%
4–11 February 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 17.6% 16.1–19.2% 15.7–19.7% 15.4–20.1% 14.7–20.9%
4–7 February 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 18.9% 17.5–20.5% 17.1–20.9% 16.8–21.3% 16.1–22.1%
28 January–4 February 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 13.3% 12.0–14.8% 11.6–15.2% 11.3–15.5% 10.7–16.3%
24–29 January 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 18.2% 16.7–19.8% 16.3–20.3% 15.9–20.7% 15.2–21.5%
15–28 January 2019 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 17.0% 15.5–18.6% 15.2–19.1% 14.8–19.5% 14.1–20.3%
21–27 January 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 19.2% 17.7–20.9% 17.2–21.4% 16.9–21.8% 16.2–22.6%
14–21 January 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 18.2% 16.7–19.8% 16.3–20.3% 15.9–20.7% 15.2–21.5%
7–13 January 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 20.5% 19.0–22.2% 18.6–22.7% 18.2–23.1% 17.5–23.9%
3–9 January 2019 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 20.0% 18.5–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.7–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
4–8 January 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 20.2% 18.9–21.7% 18.5–22.1% 18.2–22.5% 17.5–23.2%
13–19 December 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
5–12 December 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 20.3% 18.6–22.1% 18.1–22.6% 17.7–23.0% 16.9–23.9%
27 November–10 December 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.1–21.3%
31 October–13 November 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–17.0% 12.9–17.4% 12.3–18.1%
8–13 November 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 17.0% 15.6–18.5% 15.2–19.0% 14.8–19.4% 14.2–20.1%
11–18 October 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 15.8% 14.4–17.4% 14.0–17.9% 13.6–18.3% 13.0–19.1%
2–15 October 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 17.0% 15.5–18.6% 15.2–19.1% 14.8–19.5% 14.1–20.3%
12–20 September 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 19.9% 18.4–21.7% 17.9–22.1% 17.5–22.6% 16.8–23.4%
4–17 September 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 17.0% 15.5–18.6% 15.2–19.1% 14.8–19.5% 14.1–20.3%
8–26 August 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
15–22 August 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 21.2% 19.4–23.2% 18.9–23.8% 18.4–24.3% 17.6–25.3%
24–30 July 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 21.8% 20.0–23.9% 19.4–24.5% 19.0–25.0% 18.1–26.0%
1–17 June 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 17.0% 15.5–18.8% 15.1–19.3% 14.7–19.7% 14.0–20.5%
29 May–11 June 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.0–21.3%
21 May 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–17.0% 12.9–17.4% 12.3–18.1%
21 May 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 16.7% 15.2–18.4% 14.7–18.9% 14.4–19.3% 13.7–20.2%
19 April 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 14.3% 13.0–15.8% 12.6–16.2% 12.3–16.6% 11.6–17.4%
12–18 April 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 19.1% 17.5–20.8% 17.0–21.3% 16.6–21.7% 15.9–22.6%
8–21 March 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 13.0% 11.8–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.3% 10.5–16.0%
8–14 March 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 18.4% 16.8–20.1% 16.3–20.6% 16.0–21.0% 15.2–21.9%
1–25 February 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 16.9% 15.4–18.7% 15.0–19.1% 14.6–19.6% 13.9–20.4%
7–20 February 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–16.0% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.1%
15–29 January 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 12.0% 10.7–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.1% 9.5–14.8%
18–25 January 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 18.4% 17.0–20.0% 16.6–20.4% 16.2–20.8% 15.6–21.6%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7.5–8.5% 0% 100% Last Result
8.5–9.5% 0% 100%  
9.5–10.5% 0% 100%  
10.5–11.5% 0% 100%  
11.5–12.5% 0% 100%  
12.5–13.5% 0% 100%  
13.5–14.5% 0.2% 100%  
14.5–15.5% 2% 99.8%  
15.5–16.5% 14% 98%  
16.5–17.5% 37% 83% Median
17.5–18.5% 27% 47%  
18.5–19.5% 14% 19%  
19.5–20.5% 4% 5%  
20.5–21.5% 0.8% 0.9%  
21.5–22.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
22.5–23.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 7 seats (General Election of 1 March 2015)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 19 18–21 17–22 17–23 16–24
24 February–1 March 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 19 17–21 17–22 16–22 15–23
26–28 February 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 19 17–21 17–21 16–22 15–23
18–24 February 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 20 19–22 18–23 18–23 17–25
7–20 February 2019 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 19 18–19 18–20 18–20 17–21
14–20 February 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 23 21–25 20–25 20–26 20–27
12–18 February 2019 OÜ Faktum & Ariko 21 19–23 18–23 18–24 17–25
11–17 February 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 16 14–18 14–18 14–19 13–20
4–11 February 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 19 17–21 17–21 16–22 15–23
4–7 February 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 20 18–22 18–22 17–23 17–24
28 January–4 February 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 14 12–16 12–16 12–17 11–18
24–29 January 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 20 18–22 17–22 17–23 16–24
15–28 January 2019 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 19 17–21 16–21 16–22 15–23
21–27 January 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 21 19–23 19–24 18–24 17–25
14–21 January 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 20 18–22 18–23 17–23 16–24
7–13 January 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 22 20–25 20–25 20–26 19–27
3–9 January 2019 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 22 20–24 19–25 19–25 18–26
4–8 January 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 22 20–24 20–25 20–25 19–26
13–19 December 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 23 21–25 20–26 20–27 19–28
5–12 December 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 22 20–24 19–25 19–25 18–27
27 November–10 December 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 20 18–21 17–22 17–23 16–24
31 October–13 November 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 16 14–18 14–19 13–19 13–20
8–13 November 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 18 17–20 16–21 16–21 15–22
11–18 October 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 17 15–19 14–19 14–20 13–21
2–15 October 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 18 17–20 16–21 16–22 15–23
12–20 September 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 23 21–25 20–26 19–27 19–28
4–17 September 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 18 16–20 16–21 16–21 15–22
8–26 August 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 21 19–23 18–24 18–24 17–25
15–22 August 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 23 21–26 20–26 19–27 18–28
24–30 July 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 24 21–27 21–27 20–28 19–29
1–17 June 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 18 16–19 15–20 15–21 14–22
29 May–11 June 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 20 17–22 17–22 16–23 16–24
21 May 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 16 14–18 14–19 13–19 13–20
21 May 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 18 16–20 16–21 15–22 14–23
19 April 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 15 14–17 13–18 13–18 12–19
12–18 April 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 20 18–22 17–23 17–23 16–25
8–21 March 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 14 12–15 11–16 11–16 10–17
8–14 March 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 20 18–22 17–23 17–24 16–24
1–25 February 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 18 16–20 15–20 15–21 14–22
7–20 February 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 15 13–17 13–17 12–17 12–18
15–29 January 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 13 11–14 11–15 10–15 10–16
18–25 January 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 20 18–22 18–23 17–24 16–25

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.4% 100%  
16 2% 99.6%  
17 7% 98%  
18 23% 91%  
19 28% 68% Median
20 19% 40%  
21 12% 21%  
22 6% 9%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0.6% 0.7%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%