Eesti Reformierakond

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 27.7% (General Election of 1 March 2015)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 25.5% 23.6–27.7% 23.3–28.3% 23.0–28.8% 22.5–29.8%
24 February–1 March 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 26.4% 24.7–28.2% 24.2–28.8% 23.8–29.2% 23.0–30.1%
26–28 February 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 26.6% 24.9–28.3% 24.4–28.8% 24.1–29.2% 23.3–30.1%
18–24 February 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 30.5% 28.7–32.4% 28.1–32.9% 27.7–33.4% 26.8–34.3%
7–20 February 2019 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 24.0% 23.2–24.8% 23.0–25.0% 22.8–25.2% 22.4–25.6%
14–20 February 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 25.7% 24.2–27.4% 23.7–27.9% 23.3–28.3% 22.6–29.1%
12–18 February 2019 OÜ Faktum & Ariko 25.3% 23.7–27.0% 23.2–27.5% 22.9–27.9% 22.1–28.7%
11–17 February 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 31.7% 29.9–33.6% 29.3–34.2% 28.9–34.7% 28.0–35.6%
4–11 February 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 30.6% 28.8–32.5% 28.3–33.1% 27.8–33.5% 27.0–34.5%
4–7 February 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 24.5% 22.9–26.2% 22.4–26.6% 22.1–27.1% 21.3–27.9%
28 January–4 February 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 26.6% 24.9–28.5% 24.4–29.0% 23.9–29.4% 23.1–30.3%
24–29 January 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 26.3% 24.5–28.1% 24.1–28.6% 23.6–29.1% 22.8–30.0%
15–28 January 2019 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 25.0% 23.3–26.8% 22.8–27.3% 22.4–27.8% 21.6–28.7%
21–27 January 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 27.1% 25.3–29.0% 24.9–29.5% 24.4–29.9% 23.6–30.8%
14–21 January 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 27.1% 25.3–29.0% 24.9–29.5% 24.4–29.9% 23.6–30.8%
7–13 January 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 26.8% 25.1–28.6% 24.6–29.1% 24.2–29.5% 23.4–30.4%
3–9 January 2019 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 20.0% 18.5–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.7–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
4–8 January 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 24.4% 22.9–26.0% 22.5–26.4% 22.2–26.8% 21.5–27.5%
13–19 December 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.7% 18.8–25.5%
5–12 December 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 23.0% 21.2–24.9% 20.7–25.4% 20.3–25.9% 19.5–26.8%
27 November–10 December 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
31 October–13 November 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
8–13 November 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 29.0% 27.3–30.8% 26.8–31.4% 26.3–31.8% 25.5–32.7%
11–18 October 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 28.4% 26.6–30.3% 26.1–30.9% 25.6–31.4% 24.8–32.3%
2–15 October 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 28.0% 26.2–29.9% 25.7–30.4% 25.3–30.9% 24.5–31.8%
12–20 September 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 26.7% 25.0–28.6% 24.5–29.1% 24.0–29.6% 23.2–30.5%
4–17 September 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.3–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
8–26 August 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 25.0% 23.3–26.8% 22.8–27.3% 22.4–27.8% 21.6–28.7%
15–22 August 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 29.8% 27.7–32.0% 27.1–32.6% 26.6–33.2% 25.7–34.3%
24–30 July 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 29.6% 27.5–31.8% 26.9–32.5% 26.4–33.0% 25.4–34.1%
1–17 June 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 32.0% 30.1–34.1% 29.5–34.7% 29.0–35.2% 28.1–36.2%
29 May–11 June 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 28.0% 26.3–29.9% 25.8–30.5% 25.3–30.9% 24.5–31.8%
21 May 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 30.0% 28.2–31.9% 27.7–32.4% 27.2–32.9% 26.4–33.9%
21 May 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 32.0% 30.1–34.1% 29.5–34.7% 29.0–35.2% 28.1–36.2%
19 April 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 33.7% 31.8–35.7% 31.3–36.2% 30.8–36.7% 29.9–37.6%
12–18 April 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 30.0% 28.1–32.0% 27.5–32.5% 27.1–33.0% 26.2–34.0%
8–21 March 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 31.0% 29.2–33.0% 28.7–33.5% 28.3–34.0% 27.4–34.9%
8–14 March 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 34.1% 32.2–36.2% 31.6–36.8% 31.1–37.3% 30.2–38.3%
1–25 February 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 33.9% 31.9–36.0% 31.3–36.6% 30.8–37.1% 29.9–38.1%
7–20 February 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.4–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
15–29 January 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 26.0% 24.3–27.9% 23.8–28.4% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
18–25 January 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 34.2% 32.4–36.1% 31.9–36.6% 31.5–37.1% 30.7–38.0%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Eesti Reformierakond.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20.5–21.5% 0% 100%  
21.5–22.5% 0.6% 100%  
22.5–23.5% 8% 99.4%  
23.5–24.5% 22% 92%  
24.5–25.5% 20% 69% Median
25.5–26.5% 20% 49%  
26.5–27.5% 16% 29%  
27.5–28.5% 9% 12% Last Result
28.5–29.5% 3% 4%  
29.5–30.5% 0.6% 0.7%  
30.5–31.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
31.5–32.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 30 seats (General Election of 1 March 2015)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 30 27–32 27–33 26–33 26–35
24 February–1 March 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 31 27–32 27–32 26–33 25–35
26–28 February 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 31 29–33 28–34 27–34 26–35
18–24 February 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 35 33–37 32–38 32–39 31–40
7–20 February 2019 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 28 27–29 27–29 26–29 26–30
14–20 February 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 28 26–30 26–31 25–32 25–33
12–18 February 2019 OÜ Faktum & Ariko 30 28–32 27–33 27–33 26–35
11–17 February 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 37 35–39 34–40 33–41 32–42
4–11 February 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 35 33–37 32–38 31–39 31–40
4–7 February 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 26 25–29 24–29 24–30 23–31
28 January–4 February 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 31 28–33 28–34 27–35 26–36
24–29 January 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 30 27–32 27–33 26–33 25–35
15–28 January 2019 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 29 26–31 25–32 25–33 24–34
21–27 January 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 31 29–34 29–34 28–35 27–36
14–21 January 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 31 29–34 29–35 28–35 27–36
7–13 January 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 30 28–33 28–33 27–34 26–36
3–9 January 2019 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 22 20–24 19–25 19–25 18–26
4–8 January 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 27 25–29 25–30 25–30 24–31
13–19 December 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 25 22–27 22–28 21–28 20–29
5–12 December 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 26 23–28 23–28 22–29 21–30
27 November–10 December 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 23 21–25 21–26 20–27 19–28
31 October–13 November 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 26 24–29 23–29 23–30 22–31
8–13 November 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 34 31–36 31–37 30–37 29–39
11–18 October 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 34 30–36 30–37 29–38 28–39
2–15 October 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 32 30–35 29–36 29–36 27–38
12–20 September 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 32 30–35 29–35 28–36 27–37
4–17 September 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 31 29–33 28–34 27–35 26–36
8–26 August 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 29 26–30 25–31 25–32 24–34
15–22 August 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 34 31–37 30–38 29–38 28–40
24–30 July 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 34 31–37 30–38 30–38 28–40
1–17 June 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 36 33–39 33–39 32–40 31–41
29 May–11 June 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 32 30–35 29–36 29–36 27–37
21 May 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 35 33–38 32–39 31–39 30–40
21 May 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 38 35–41 34–42 34–43 32–44
19 April 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 40 38–43 37–43 36–44 35–46
12–18 April 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 33 31–36 30–37 29–38 29–39
8–21 March 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 36 33–39 33–40 32–40 31–41
8–14 March 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 40 37–43 36–44 36–45 35–46
1–25 February 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 38 36–41 35–42 35–43 33–44
7–20 February 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 31 29–33 28–34 27–34 26–36
15–29 January 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 30 28–33 27–34 27–34 26–36
18–25 January 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 41 38–44 37–44 36–45 35–47

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Eesti Reformierakond.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.3% 100%  
26 3% 99.7%  
27 15% 97%  
28 17% 82%  
29 14% 65%  
30 14% 50% Last Result, Median
31 19% 37%  
32 11% 18%  
33 5% 7%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.5% 0.7%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%