Eesti Keskerakond

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 24.8% (General Election of 1 March 2015)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 24.2% 21.6–28.2% 21.1–28.6% 20.6–28.8% 19.7–29.3%
24 February–1 March 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 23.5% 21.8–25.3% 21.4–25.8% 21.0–26.2% 20.2–27.1%
26–28 February 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 24.5% 22.9–26.2% 22.5–26.7% 22.1–27.1% 21.3–28.0%
18–24 February 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 21.5% 19.9–23.2% 19.4–23.7% 19.0–24.1% 18.3–25.0%
7–20 February 2019 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 28.0% 27.2–28.8% 26.9–29.1% 26.7–29.3% 26.3–29.7%
14–20 February 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 24.7% 23.2–26.4% 22.7–26.9% 22.3–27.3% 21.6–28.1%
12–18 February 2019 OÜ Faktum & Ariko 22.2% 20.7–23.8% 20.3–24.3% 19.9–24.7% 19.2–25.5%
11–17 February 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 23.4% 21.7–25.2% 21.3–25.7% 20.9–26.1% 20.1–27.0%
4–11 February 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 27.4% 25.6–29.3% 25.1–29.8% 24.7–30.3% 23.9–31.2%
4–7 February 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 26.5% 24.9–28.2% 24.4–28.7% 24.0–29.1% 23.2–30.0%
28 January–4 February 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 30.5% 28.7–32.4% 28.2–33.0% 27.7–33.4% 26.9–34.4%
24–29 January 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 24.4% 22.7–26.2% 22.2–26.7% 21.8–27.1% 21.0–28.0%
15–28 January 2019 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 33.0% 31.1–34.9% 30.6–35.5% 30.1–36.0% 29.3–36.9%
21–27 January 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 27.3% 25.5–29.2% 25.1–29.7% 24.6–30.1% 23.8–31.1%
14–21 January 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 30.2% 28.4–32.1% 27.9–32.6% 27.4–33.1% 26.6–34.0%
7–13 January 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 26.9% 25.2–28.7% 24.7–29.2% 24.3–29.6% 23.5–30.5%
3–9 January 2019 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 26.0% 24.2–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.8% 22.5–29.7%
4–8 January 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 23.3% 21.8–24.8% 21.4–25.3% 21.1–25.6% 20.4–26.4%
13–19 December 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 25.0% 23.3–26.8% 22.8–27.3% 22.4–27.8% 21.6–28.7%
5–12 December 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 25.9% 24.0–27.8% 23.5–28.4% 23.1–28.9% 22.2–29.8%
27 November–10 December 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 31.0% 29.2–32.9% 28.7–33.5% 28.2–33.9% 27.3–34.9%
31 October–13 November 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 33.0% 31.1–34.9% 30.6–35.5% 30.1–36.0% 29.3–36.9%
8–13 November 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 24.7% 23.1–26.5% 22.6–27.0% 22.2–27.4% 21.5–28.3%
11–18 October 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 25.2% 23.4–27.0% 22.9–27.6% 22.5–28.0% 21.7–28.9%
2–15 October 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 30.0% 28.2–31.9% 27.7–32.4% 27.2–32.9% 26.4–33.9%
12–20 September 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 24.6% 22.8–26.4% 22.4–26.9% 22.0–27.4% 21.2–28.3%
4–17 September 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 28.0% 26.2–29.9% 25.7–30.4% 25.3–30.9% 24.5–31.8%
8–26 August 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.3–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
15–22 August 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 23.8% 21.8–25.8% 21.3–26.4% 20.8–26.9% 20.0–28.0%
24–30 July 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 23.9% 21.9–26.0% 21.4–26.6% 20.9–27.1% 20.0–28.1%
1–17 June 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 23.0% 21.2–24.9% 20.7–25.4% 20.3–25.9% 19.5–26.8%
29 May–11 June 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.4–29.9% 23.6–30.8%
21 May 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.4% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
21 May 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 21.1% 19.4–22.9% 18.9–23.4% 18.5–23.9% 17.7–24.8%
19 April 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 26.5% 24.8–28.3% 24.3–28.9% 23.9–29.3% 23.0–30.2%
12–18 April 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 21.6% 19.9–23.4% 19.4–23.9% 19.0–24.4% 18.2–25.3%
8–21 March 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 26.0% 24.2–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.8% 22.5–29.7%
8–14 March 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 23.8% 22.1–25.7% 21.6–26.2% 21.1–26.7% 20.3–27.6%
1–25 February 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 20.9% 19.3–22.8% 18.8–23.3% 18.4–23.8% 17.6–24.7%
7–20 February 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.4–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
15–29 January 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.4–29.9% 23.5–30.8%
18–25 January 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 20.5% 19.0–22.1% 18.6–22.6% 18.2–23.0% 17.5–23.8%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Eesti Keskerakond.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17.5–18.5% 0% 100%  
18.5–19.5% 0.3% 100%  
19.5–20.5% 2% 99.7%  
20.5–21.5% 7% 98%  
21.5–22.5% 13% 91%  
22.5–23.5% 17% 78%  
23.5–24.5% 17% 60% Median
24.5–25.5% 11% 44% Last Result
25.5–26.5% 6% 32%  
26.5–27.5% 8% 27%  
27.5–28.5% 14% 19%  
28.5–29.5% 5% 5%  
29.5–30.5% 0.2% 0.2%  
30.5–31.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 27 seats (General Election of 1 March 2015)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 28 24–33 24–34 23–34 22–35
24 February–1 March 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 26 24–28 23–29 23–29 22–31
26–28 February 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 28 26–30 25–31 25–31 24–32
18–24 February 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 24 22–26 21–27 21–27 20–28
7–20 February 2019 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 33 32–34 32–34 31–35 31–35
14–20 February 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 27 25–29 25–29 24–30 24–31
12–18 February 2019 OÜ Faktum & Ariko 26 24–28 23–29 23–29 22–30
11–17 February 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 26 24–28 24–29 23–30 22–31
4–11 February 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 31 29–33 28–34 28–34 27–36
4–7 February 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 29 27–31 27–32 26–33 25–33
28 January–4 February 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 36 33–39 33–39 32–40 31–41
24–29 January 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 27 25–30 25–30 24–31 23–32
15–28 January 2019 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 39 36–42 36–43 35–44 34–45
21–27 January 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 32 29–34 29–35 28–35 27–36
14–21 January 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 36 33–38 33–39 32–39 31–41
7–13 January 2019 Norstat
MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut		 31 28–33 28–34 27–34 26–35
3–9 January 2019 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 29 27–32 26–32 26–33 25–34
4–8 January 2019 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 26 24–28 24–28 23–29 22–30
13–19 December 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 28 26–31 25–31 25–32 24–33
5–12 December 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 29 27–31 26–32 26–33 25–34
27 November–10 December 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 36 34–39 33–40 32–40 31–42
31 October–13 November 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 40 36–43 35–43 35–44 34–45
8–13 November 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 28 26–30 25–31 25–32 24–33
11–18 October 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 29 26–31 26–32 25–33 24–34
2–15 October 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 35 32–38 32–38 31–39 30–40
12–20 September 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 29 27–32 26–33 25–33 24–34
4–17 September 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 32 30–35 29–35 29–36 28–37
8–26 August 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 31 29–34 28–34 27–35 26–36
15–22 August 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 26 24–29 23–30 22–30 21–32
24–30 July 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 27 24–29 23–30 23–31 21–32
1–17 June 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 25 23–27 22–28 21–28 20–29
29 May–11 June 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 31 29–33 28–34 27–35 26–36
21 May 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 30 28–32 27–33 26–34 25–35
21 May 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 23 21–26 21–27 20–27 19–29
19 April 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 31 28–33 28–34 27–34 26–36
12–18 April 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 23 21–25 20–26 20–27 19–28
8–21 March 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 30 27–32 27–33 26–33 25–35
8–14 March 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 27 24–29 24–30 23–31 22–32
1–25 February 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 22 20–25 20–25 19–26 18–27
7–20 February 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 31 29–33 28–34 27–35 26–36
15–29 January 2018 Turu-uuringute AS
ERR		 32 29–34 28–35 28–36 27–37
18–25 January 2018 Kantar Emor
BNS and Postimees		 22 21–25 20–26 20–26 18–27

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Eesti Keskerakond.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.8% 99.8%  
23 3% 99.0%  
24 7% 96%  
25 11% 89%  
26 13% 79%  
27 14% 65% Last Result
28 13% 51% Median
29 7% 38%  
30 4% 31%  
31 3% 27%  
32 6% 25%  
33 12% 19%  
34 6% 7%  
35 0.9% 0.9%  
36 0% 0%