Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR, 15–29 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.4–29.9% 23.5–30.8%
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 26.0% 24.3–27.9% 23.8–28.4% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 12.0% 10.7–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.1% 9.5–14.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 11.0% 9.8–12.3% 9.5–12.7% 9.2–13.1% 8.6–13.7%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 27 32 29–34 28–35 28–36 27–37
Eesti Reformierakond 30 30 28–33 27–34 27–34 26–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 13 11–14 11–15 10–15 10–16
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 11 10–13 9–14 9–14 9–15
Erakond Isamaa 14 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0–5 0–5
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0–5 0–5 0–5

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 1.3% 99.7% Last Result
28 4% 98%  
29 6% 95%  
30 18% 88%  
31 18% 71%  
32 17% 53% Median
33 16% 36%  
34 11% 20%  
35 5% 9%  
36 3% 4%  
37 1.1% 1.3%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.6%  
27 4% 98%  
28 9% 94%  
29 17% 85%  
30 18% 67% Last Result, Median
31 20% 49%  
32 13% 29%  
33 9% 16%  
34 5% 7%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.5% 0.6%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0.4% 100%  
10 4% 99.5%  
11 14% 95%  
12 28% 81%  
13 27% 53% Median
14 17% 26%  
15 7% 9%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.5% 100%  
9 5% 99.5%  
10 17% 95%  
11 31% 77% Median
12 27% 47%  
13 14% 19%  
14 5% 6%  
15 0.9% 1.0% Last Result
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100%  
1 0% 50%  
2 0% 50%  
3 0% 50%  
4 6% 50% Median
5 35% 44%  
6 8% 9%  
7 0.7% 0.7%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0% 4%  
4 0% 4%  
5 4% 4%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0% 7%  
4 2% 7%  
5 5% 5%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 75 100% 71–79 71–79 69–80 68–81
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 57 62 100% 59–66 58–66 57–67 56–68
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 46 2% 42–49 42–50 41–50 39–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 46 2% 42–49 41–50 41–50 39–52
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 44 0.4% 41–48 41–48 40–49 39–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 45 1.0% 41–48 40–49 40–49 38–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 45 0.6% 41–48 40–49 40–49 38–51
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 43 0.1% 40–46 40–47 39–48 37–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 43 0.1% 40–46 39–47 39–48 37–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 42 0% 39–45 38–46 38–46 36–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 33 0% 30–36 29–37 28–38 27–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 24 0% 22–26 21–27 21–28 20–29

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.7% 99.6%  
69 2% 99.0%  
70 2% 97%  
71 6% 95%  
72 10% 89%  
73 12% 79%  
74 13% 67%  
75 11% 54% Median
76 12% 43%  
77 10% 31%  
78 10% 20%  
79 8% 11%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.8% 1.0%  
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 0.9% 99.6%  
57 2% 98.7% Last Result
58 4% 97%  
59 8% 93%  
60 12% 85%  
61 13% 73%  
62 14% 60% Median
63 12% 46%  
64 14% 34%  
65 9% 20%  
66 7% 11%  
67 3% 5%  
68 1.4% 2%  
69 0.3% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 0.9% 99.4%  
41 3% 98%  
42 5% 95%  
43 9% 90%  
44 13% 81%  
45 14% 68%  
46 13% 54%  
47 16% 41% Median
48 12% 25%  
49 6% 13%  
50 4% 7%  
51 2% 2% Majority
52 0.5% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.8%  
40 1.5% 99.4%  
41 3% 98%  
42 6% 95%  
43 8% 89%  
44 12% 80%  
45 14% 69%  
46 15% 54%  
47 14% 39% Median
48 13% 25%  
49 6% 12%  
50 4% 6%  
51 1.4% 2% Last Result, Majority
52 0.5% 0.7%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 1.1% 99.5%  
40 3% 98%  
41 6% 96%  
42 11% 90%  
43 13% 79%  
44 19% 66%  
45 15% 47% Median
46 14% 32%  
47 7% 18%  
48 6% 10%  
49 3% 4%  
50 0.9% 1.3%  
51 0.3% 0.4% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.9%  
39 1.2% 99.4%  
40 3% 98%  
41 6% 95%  
42 10% 89%  
43 12% 80%  
44 14% 68%  
45 16% 54% Median
46 13% 38%  
47 12% 25%  
48 6% 13%  
49 4% 7%  
50 1.4% 2%  
51 0.7% 1.0% Majority
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.6% 99.8%  
39 2% 99.2%  
40 4% 98%  
41 6% 94%  
42 10% 88%  
43 12% 77%  
44 14% 65%  
45 16% 51% Median
46 13% 35%  
47 11% 22%  
48 6% 11%  
49 4% 5%  
50 1.1% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.6% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.5% 99.9%  
38 1.2% 99.4%  
39 3% 98%  
40 7% 95%  
41 11% 88%  
42 16% 77% Last Result
43 17% 61% Median
44 15% 43%  
45 12% 29%  
46 8% 16%  
47 5% 9%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.7% 1.0%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.5% 99.8% Last Result
38 1.3% 99.4%  
39 4% 98%  
40 7% 95%  
41 12% 88%  
42 16% 76%  
43 17% 60% Median
44 15% 43%  
45 13% 28%  
46 7% 15%  
47 5% 8%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.6% 0.8%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.5% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.3%  
38 4% 98%  
39 7% 94%  
40 15% 87%  
41 14% 72% Median
42 19% 57%  
43 14% 39%  
44 12% 25%  
45 7% 13% Last Result
46 4% 6%  
47 1.5% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.8% 99.8%  
28 2% 98.9%  
29 6% 97%  
30 8% 91%  
31 12% 83%  
32 12% 70%  
33 13% 58%  
34 15% 45% Median
35 12% 30%  
36 9% 18%  
37 5% 9%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.8% 1.1%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.3% 100%  
20 2% 99.6%  
21 5% 98%  
22 12% 93% Last Result
23 19% 81%  
24 22% 63% Median
25 19% 41%  
26 13% 22%  
27 6% 9%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.7% 0.8%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations