Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR, 7–20 February 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond | 27.7% | 27.0% | 25.3–28.9% | 24.8–29.4% | 24.4–29.8% | 23.5–30.7% |
| Eesti Keskerakond | 24.8% | 27.0% | 25.3–28.9% | 24.8–29.4% | 24.4–29.8% | 23.5–30.7% |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 8.1% | 14.0% | 12.7–15.5% | 12.3–16.0% | 12.0–16.3% | 11.4–17.1% |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 15.2% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
| Erakond Isamaa | 13.7% | 6.0% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Eesti Vabaerakond | 8.7% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.8% |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised | 0.9% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.8–4.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond | 30 | 31 | 29–33 | 28–34 | 27–34 | 26–36 |
| Eesti Keskerakond | 27 | 31 | 29–33 | 28–34 | 27–35 | 26–36 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 7 | 15 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–17 | 12–18 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 15 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 5–10 |
| Erakond Isamaa | 14 | 5 | 4–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| Eesti Vabaerakond | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Eesti Reformierakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 28 | 6% | 97% | |
| 29 | 11% | 91% | |
| 30 | 22% | 80% | Last Result |
| 31 | 21% | 58% | Median |
| 32 | 17% | 37% | |
| 33 | 11% | 20% | |
| 34 | 6% | 9% | |
| 35 | 2% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 2% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 28 | 6% | 97% | |
| 29 | 13% | 91% | |
| 30 | 19% | 78% | |
| 31 | 23% | 59% | Median |
| 32 | 17% | 36% | |
| 33 | 11% | 19% | |
| 34 | 5% | 8% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 12 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 13 | 13% | 96% | |
| 14 | 26% | 83% | |
| 15 | 27% | 56% | Median |
| 16 | 20% | 30% | |
| 17 | 8% | 10% | |
| 18 | 2% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 6 | 9% | 99.4% | |
| 7 | 33% | 91% | |
| 8 | 36% | 57% | Median |
| 9 | 17% | 21% | |
| 10 | 4% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Erakond Isamaa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 94% | |
| 2 | 0% | 94% | |
| 3 | 0% | 94% | |
| 4 | 5% | 94% | |
| 5 | 42% | 89% | Median |
| 6 | 37% | 48% | |
| 7 | 9% | 11% | |
| 8 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Vabaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 6% | |
| 4 | 3% | 6% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 64 | 77 | 100% | 74–79 | 73–80 | 73–81 | 71–83 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond | 57 | 62 | 100% | 59–65 | 58–65 | 58–66 | 56–68 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa | 51 | 51 | 61% | 48–54 | 47–54 | 47–55 | 45–56 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 34 | 46 | 1.2% | 43–48 | 42–49 | 42–50 | 41–51 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 37 | 46 | 1.1% | 43–48 | 42–49 | 42–50 | 41–51 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa | 56 | 44 | 0% | 41–46 | 40–47 | 40–48 | 38–49 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond | 67 | 44 | 0.2% | 42–47 | 41–48 | 40–48 | 38–50 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa | 59 | 44 | 0% | 41–47 | 40–47 | 40–48 | 38–49 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 42 | 39 | 0% | 36–41 | 36–42 | 35–43 | 34–44 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 45 | 39 | 0% | 36–41 | 35–42 | 35–43 | 34–44 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa | 44 | 36 | 0% | 34–39 | 33–39 | 32–40 | 30–41 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 22 | 22 | 0% | 21–25 | 20–25 | 19–26 | 19–27 |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 72 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 73 | 3% | 98% | |
| 74 | 8% | 94% | |
| 75 | 13% | 87% | |
| 76 | 20% | 73% | |
| 77 | 23% | 53% | Median |
| 78 | 16% | 30% | |
| 79 | 7% | 14% | |
| 80 | 3% | 7% | |
| 81 | 2% | 4% | |
| 82 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 1.3% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 58 | 4% | 98% | |
| 59 | 6% | 94% | |
| 60 | 13% | 88% | |
| 61 | 18% | 75% | |
| 62 | 19% | 56% | Median |
| 63 | 18% | 38% | |
| 64 | 9% | 19% | |
| 65 | 6% | 11% | |
| 66 | 3% | 4% | |
| 67 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 46 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 47 | 3% | 98% | |
| 48 | 7% | 95% | |
| 49 | 11% | 88% | |
| 50 | 15% | 77% | |
| 51 | 20% | 61% | Last Result, Median, Majority |
| 52 | 18% | 41% | |
| 53 | 13% | 23% | |
| 54 | 6% | 10% | |
| 55 | 3% | 4% | |
| 56 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 1.2% | 99.5% | |
| 42 | 4% | 98% | |
| 43 | 9% | 94% | |
| 44 | 14% | 86% | |
| 45 | 17% | 71% | |
| 46 | 20% | 54% | Median |
| 47 | 16% | 34% | |
| 48 | 10% | 18% | |
| 49 | 5% | 8% | |
| 50 | 2% | 3% | |
| 51 | 0.7% | 1.2% | Majority |
| 52 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 1.5% | 99.6% | |
| 42 | 3% | 98% | |
| 43 | 8% | 95% | |
| 44 | 15% | 87% | |
| 45 | 18% | 72% | |
| 46 | 19% | 54% | Median |
| 47 | 18% | 35% | |
| 48 | 10% | 18% | |
| 49 | 5% | 8% | |
| 50 | 2% | 3% | |
| 51 | 0.8% | 1.1% | Majority |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 39 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 40 | 3% | 98% | |
| 41 | 7% | 94% | |
| 42 | 11% | 87% | |
| 43 | 17% | 76% | |
| 44 | 20% | 59% | Median |
| 45 | 18% | 39% | |
| 46 | 12% | 22% | |
| 47 | 6% | 10% | |
| 48 | 3% | 4% | |
| 49 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 40 | 3% | 98% | |
| 41 | 5% | 96% | |
| 42 | 10% | 90% | |
| 43 | 17% | 80% | |
| 44 | 20% | 63% | Median |
| 45 | 17% | 44% | |
| 46 | 13% | 27% | |
| 47 | 8% | 14% | |
| 48 | 4% | 6% | |
| 49 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 39 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 40 | 3% | 98% | |
| 41 | 6% | 94% | |
| 42 | 11% | 88% | |
| 43 | 18% | 77% | |
| 44 | 20% | 59% | Median |
| 45 | 16% | 39% | |
| 46 | 12% | 23% | |
| 47 | 7% | 11% | |
| 48 | 3% | 4% | |
| 49 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 35 | 3% | 98% | |
| 36 | 8% | 95% | |
| 37 | 15% | 87% | |
| 38 | 18% | 71% | |
| 39 | 22% | 53% | Median |
| 40 | 14% | 31% | |
| 41 | 10% | 17% | |
| 42 | 5% | 7% | Last Result |
| 43 | 2% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 4% | 98% | |
| 36 | 7% | 95% | |
| 37 | 15% | 88% | |
| 38 | 21% | 73% | |
| 39 | 19% | 52% | Median |
| 40 | 16% | 33% | |
| 41 | 8% | 16% | |
| 42 | 6% | 8% | |
| 43 | 2% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 31 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 32 | 2% | 98% | |
| 33 | 5% | 96% | |
| 34 | 10% | 91% | |
| 35 | 14% | 80% | |
| 36 | 22% | 66% | Median |
| 37 | 18% | 44% | |
| 38 | 13% | 26% | |
| 39 | 9% | 13% | |
| 40 | 3% | 4% | |
| 41 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 20 | 7% | 97% | |
| 21 | 18% | 90% | |
| 22 | 23% | 73% | Last Result |
| 23 | 23% | 49% | Median |
| 24 | 16% | 27% | |
| 25 | 7% | 10% | |
| 26 | 2% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Turu-uuringute AS
- Commissioner(s): ERR
- Fieldwork period: 7–20 February 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1011
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.53%