Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 1–25 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 33.9% 31.9–36.0% 31.3–36.6% 30.8–37.1% 29.9–38.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 20.9% 19.3–22.8% 18.8–23.3% 18.4–23.8% 17.6–24.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 16.9% 15.4–18.7% 15.0–19.1% 14.6–19.6% 13.9–20.4%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 11.0% 9.7–12.5% 9.4–12.9% 9.1–13.2% 8.5–14.0%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 7.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6% 5.5–8.9% 5.0–9.5%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 5.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.8–7.4% 4.6–7.7% 4.2–8.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.3% 2.9–5.5% 2.6–6.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 30 38 36–41 35–42 35–43 33–44
Eesti Keskerakond 27 22 20–25 20–25 19–26 18–27
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 18 16–20 15–20 15–21 14–22
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 11 9–12 9–13 9–13 8–14
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 0–9
Erakond Isamaa 14 5 0–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.5% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.4%  
35 5% 98%  
36 10% 93%  
37 13% 83%  
38 20% 70% Median
39 16% 49%  
40 16% 33%  
41 10% 17%  
42 4% 7%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.7% 1.0%  
45 0.3% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.7% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.2%  
20 10% 97%  
21 19% 87%  
22 19% 68% Median
23 22% 48%  
24 15% 26%  
25 7% 11%  
26 3% 4%  
27 0.9% 1.2% Last Result
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 1.4% 99.8%  
15 6% 98%  
16 18% 92%  
17 22% 75%  
18 23% 53% Median
19 18% 30%  
20 8% 12%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.7% 0.9%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 2% 99.8%  
9 12% 98%  
10 28% 86%  
11 31% 58% Median
12 18% 27%  
13 7% 8%  
14 1.4% 2%  
15 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
16 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 0% 99.5%  
2 0% 99.5%  
3 0% 99.5%  
4 1.3% 99.5%  
5 17% 98%  
6 39% 81% Median
7 31% 42%  
8 10% 11% Last Result
9 1.5% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 0% 90%  
2 0% 90%  
3 0% 90%  
4 9% 90%  
5 44% 81% Median
6 29% 37%  
7 7% 8%  
8 0.8% 0.8%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 10%  
2 0% 10%  
3 0% 10%  
4 6% 10%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 78 100% 76–82 75–83 74–84 73–85
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 57 61 100% 58–64 57–65 57–66 55–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 61 100% 58–64 57–65 57–65 55–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Vabaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 67 61 100% 58–63 57–64 56–65 54–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 56 99.5% 53–59 53–60 52–61 51–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 54 95% 51–57 50–58 50–59 48–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 49 31% 46–52 46–53 45–54 44–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 44 0% 40–46 40–47 39–48 37–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 40 0% 37–43 37–44 36–44 35–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 38 0% 35–41 34–42 33–42 32–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 33 0% 31–36 30–37 29–37 28–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 28 0% 26–31 25–32 25–32 24–33

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.3% 99.9%  
73 0.9% 99.6%  
74 2% 98.7%  
75 4% 97%  
76 8% 93%  
77 14% 84%  
78 21% 71% Median
79 20% 50%  
80 12% 30%  
81 8% 18%  
82 4% 10%  
83 3% 6%  
84 1.3% 3%  
85 1.1% 2%  
86 0.4% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.5% 99.8%  
56 1.3% 99.2%  
57 4% 98% Last Result
58 7% 94%  
59 13% 87%  
60 19% 74% Median
61 16% 55%  
62 13% 39%  
63 15% 26%  
64 6% 12%  
65 2% 6%  
66 2% 3%  
67 1.0% 1.4%  
68 0.3% 0.5%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result, Majority
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.5% 99.7%  
56 1.3% 99.2%  
57 3% 98%  
58 7% 94%  
59 10% 87%  
60 17% 77%  
61 18% 60% Median
62 16% 43%  
63 14% 27%  
64 7% 13%  
65 3% 5%  
66 1.5% 2%  
67 0.3% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Vabaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.8%  
55 1.3% 99.5%  
56 2% 98%  
57 5% 96%  
58 9% 91%  
59 12% 82%  
60 19% 69% Median
61 18% 51%  
62 15% 33%  
63 9% 19%  
64 7% 9%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.6% 0.8%  
67 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 1.3% 99.5% Majority
52 3% 98%  
53 8% 96%  
54 10% 87%  
55 15% 78%  
56 20% 63% Median
57 14% 42%  
58 13% 28%  
59 7% 15%  
60 5% 8%  
61 2% 3%  
62 1.1% 1.5%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 0.7% 99.5%  
49 1.1% 98.9%  
50 3% 98%  
51 6% 95% Majority
52 12% 89%  
53 16% 77%  
54 15% 61% Median
55 17% 46%  
56 14% 30%  
57 9% 15%  
58 3% 6%  
59 2% 3% Last Result
60 0.5% 0.7%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 1.2% 99.6%  
45 2% 98% Last Result
46 6% 96%  
47 10% 90%  
48 14% 79%  
49 21% 65% Median
50 12% 43%  
51 13% 31% Majority
52 10% 18%  
53 4% 7%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.7% 1.4%  
56 0.6% 0.7%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.7%  
38 1.0% 99.1%  
39 3% 98%  
40 6% 95%  
41 9% 89%  
42 14% 80%  
43 15% 66% Median
44 19% 51% Last Result
45 15% 32%  
46 9% 17%  
47 5% 8%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.6% 0.9%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
35 1.0% 99.7%  
36 3% 98.7%  
37 8% 96%  
38 11% 88%  
39 17% 77%  
40 18% 60% Median
41 18% 42%  
42 11% 24%  
43 7% 13%  
44 4% 6%  
45 1.4% 2%  
46 0.6% 0.8%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 0.8% 99.5%  
33 2% 98.7%  
34 3% 97%  
35 7% 94%  
36 11% 88%  
37 17% 77%  
38 16% 60% Median
39 20% 44%  
40 9% 24%  
41 9% 15%  
42 4% 6%  
43 1.3% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.8%  
29 2% 99.4%  
30 5% 97%  
31 13% 92%  
32 17% 80%  
33 18% 62% Median
34 20% 44%  
35 11% 24%  
36 8% 13%  
37 4% 6%  
38 1.1% 2%  
39 0.3% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 1.5% 99.7%  
25 4% 98%  
26 9% 94%  
27 20% 85%  
28 17% 66%  
29 21% 49% Median
30 14% 29%  
31 8% 14%  
32 4% 6%  
33 1.4% 2%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations