Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 8–14 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 34.1% 32.2–36.2% 31.6–36.8% 31.1–37.3% 30.2–38.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 23.8% 22.1–25.7% 21.6–26.2% 21.1–26.7% 20.3–27.6%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 18.4% 16.8–20.1% 16.3–20.6% 16.0–21.0% 15.2–21.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 10.6% 9.4–12.0% 9.0–12.4% 8.7–12.8% 8.2–13.5%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 5.0% 4.2–6.1% 3.9–6.4% 3.8–6.6% 3.4–7.2%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 4.1% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.4% 3.0–5.6% 2.7–6.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.8% 2.5–5.0% 2.2–5.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 30 40 37–43 36–44 36–45 35–46
Eesti Keskerakond 27 27 24–29 24–30 23–31 22–32
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 20 18–22 17–23 17–24 16–24
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 11 9–12 9–13 8–13 8–14
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Isamaa 14 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0–5

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 1.4% 99.6%  
36 3% 98%  
37 6% 95%  
38 11% 89%  
39 16% 79%  
40 16% 62% Median
41 18% 46%  
42 12% 28%  
43 8% 16%  
44 4% 8%  
45 3% 4%  
46 1.0% 1.4%  
47 0.3% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.8% 99.8%  
23 3% 99.0%  
24 8% 96%  
25 12% 88%  
26 18% 75%  
27 21% 57% Last Result, Median
28 16% 36%  
29 12% 20%  
30 5% 8%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.7% 1.0%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.2% 100%  
16 1.3% 99.8%  
17 5% 98%  
18 11% 94%  
19 21% 82%  
20 24% 61% Median
21 19% 37%  
22 10% 19%  
23 6% 8%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.3% 0.5%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100%  
8 3% 99.7%  
9 16% 97%  
10 30% 81%  
11 26% 51% Median
12 18% 25%  
13 6% 7%  
14 1.4% 2%  
15 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
16 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100%  
1 0% 52%  
2 0% 52%  
3 0% 52%  
4 11% 52% Median
5 34% 41%  
6 7% 7%  
7 0.7% 0.7%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Median
1 0% 12%  
2 0% 12%  
3 0% 12%  
4 6% 12%  
5 5% 6%  
6 0.3% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 1.2% 2%  
5 1.0% 1.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 87 100% 84–91 82–91 81–92 80–93
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 57 67 100% 64–71 63–71 62–72 60–74
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 61 100% 58–64 57–65 56–66 54–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 60 100% 57–64 56–65 55–66 53–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Vabaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 67 54 91% 51–57 50–58 49–59 48–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 51 63% 48–55 48–56 47–56 45–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 51 54% 48–54 47–55 46–56 45–57
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 47 8% 44–50 43–51 42–52 41–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 41 0% 38–44 37–45 36–46 35–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 38 0% 35–41 34–42 34–43 32–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 37 0% 35–40 34–41 33–42 32–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 31 0% 28–33 27–34 27–35 26–36

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.2% 99.9%  
80 0.8% 99.7%  
81 2% 98.9%  
82 3% 97%  
83 3% 94%  
84 7% 90%  
85 12% 83%  
86 17% 72%  
87 11% 55% Median
88 7% 44%  
89 10% 37%  
90 12% 26%  
91 10% 14%  
92 3% 4%  
93 0.6% 0.7%  
94 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0.2% 100%  
60 0.6% 99.8%  
61 1.4% 99.2%  
62 3% 98%  
63 5% 95%  
64 7% 90%  
65 12% 83%  
66 10% 71%  
67 17% 61% Median
68 12% 45%  
69 14% 32%  
70 8% 18%  
71 6% 10%  
72 3% 4%  
73 1.1% 2%  
74 0.6% 0.6%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result, Majority
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 1.0% 99.5%  
56 3% 98%  
57 6% 96%  
58 8% 90%  
59 11% 82%  
60 16% 71% Median
61 15% 55%  
62 14% 39%  
63 10% 25%  
64 7% 15%  
65 4% 8%  
66 3% 4%  
67 0.9% 1.2%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100% Majority
52 0.2% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.8%  
54 0.8% 99.5%  
55 2% 98.7%  
56 4% 97%  
57 7% 93%  
58 11% 85%  
59 12% 75%  
60 16% 63% Median
61 15% 47%  
62 12% 32%  
63 9% 20%  
64 5% 11%  
65 3% 6%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.6% 0.7%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Vabaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 0.9% 99.6%  
49 2% 98.7%  
50 5% 96%  
51 5% 91% Majority
52 13% 86%  
53 15% 73%  
54 14% 58%  
55 16% 44% Median
56 13% 28%  
57 8% 15%  
58 5% 8%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.7% 1.0%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.4% 99.8%  
46 2% 99.5%  
47 3% 98%  
48 8% 95%  
49 9% 87%  
50 15% 78%  
51 13% 63% Median, Majority
52 15% 49%  
53 14% 34%  
54 9% 20%  
55 5% 11%  
56 4% 6%  
57 2% 2%  
58 0.6% 0.8%  
59 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 1.1% 99.6% Last Result
46 2% 98%  
47 4% 96%  
48 10% 92%  
49 11% 83%  
50 17% 71%  
51 13% 54% Median, Majority
52 15% 41%  
53 12% 26%  
54 7% 15%  
55 4% 8%  
56 2% 4%  
57 1.1% 1.3%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 0.8% 99.6%  
42 2% 98.9%  
43 5% 97%  
44 8% 92%  
45 13% 84%  
46 16% 71%  
47 14% 55% Median
48 15% 41%  
49 12% 25%  
50 5% 13%  
51 5% 8% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 0.8% 1.1%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.8% 99.8%  
36 2% 99.0%  
37 4% 97%  
38 9% 93%  
39 14% 84%  
40 14% 70% Median
41 19% 55%  
42 14% 37%  
43 9% 23%  
44 6% 13% Last Result
45 4% 7%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.8% 1.3%  
48 0.4% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.5%  
34 4% 98%  
35 10% 94%  
36 12% 84%  
37 14% 72%  
38 16% 58% Median
39 15% 42%  
40 12% 27%  
41 7% 15%  
42 4% 8%  
43 2% 4%  
44 0.9% 2%  
45 0.5% 0.6%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 0.7% 99.7%  
33 2% 99.0%  
34 6% 97%  
35 12% 91%  
36 14% 79%  
37 16% 65%  
38 16% 49% Median
39 14% 34%  
40 11% 20%  
41 5% 9%  
42 3% 4% Last Result
43 1.2% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 1.1% 99.5%  
27 4% 98%  
28 10% 95%  
29 15% 84%  
30 17% 70%  
31 17% 53% Median
32 18% 36%  
33 8% 18%  
34 7% 10%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.8% 1.1%  
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations