Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR, 8–21 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 31.0% 29.2–33.0% 28.7–33.5% 28.3–34.0% 27.4–34.9%
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 26.0% 24.2–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.8% 22.5–29.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 13.0% 11.8–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.3% 10.5–16.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 10.0% 8.9–11.4% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.1% 7.8–12.7%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 30 36 33–39 33–40 32–40 31–41
Eesti Keskerakond 27 30 27–32 27–33 26–33 25–35
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 14 12–15 11–16 11–16 10–17
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 10 9–12 8–12 8–12 7–13
Erakond Isamaa 14 0 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–6
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100% Last Result
31 0.6% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.3%  
33 9% 97%  
34 11% 88%  
35 13% 77%  
36 15% 64% Median
37 17% 49%  
38 15% 32%  
39 10% 17%  
40 6% 7%  
41 1.1% 1.5%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.7% 99.8%  
26 2% 99.0%  
27 9% 97% Last Result
28 17% 88%  
29 20% 71%  
30 18% 51% Median
31 14% 33%  
32 11% 18%  
33 5% 8%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.5% 0.6%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.6% 100%  
11 5% 99.4%  
12 17% 94%  
13 25% 78%  
14 26% 52% Median
15 17% 26%  
16 7% 9%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.6% 100%  
8 8% 99.3%  
9 19% 91%  
10 39% 72% Median
11 19% 33%  
12 12% 14%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100% Median
1 0% 50%  
2 0% 50%  
3 0% 50%  
4 15% 50%  
5 27% 35%  
6 7% 7%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.1% 0.2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 80 100% 77–83 76–83 75–84 74–85
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 57 66 100% 63–69 62–70 61–71 60–72
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 52 77% 49–55 48–56 48–57 47–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 50 40% 47–53 46–54 46–54 44–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 49 24% 46–52 45–53 44–53 43–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 49 24% 46–52 45–53 44–53 43–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 47 3% 43–50 43–50 42–51 41–52
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 43 0% 40–46 40–47 39–48 38–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 42 0% 39–45 38–46 38–47 36–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 40 0% 37–43 36–43 36–44 35–45
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 39 0% 35–42 34–43 34–44 33–45
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 24 0% 21–26 21–27 20–27 19–28

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0.2% 100%  
74 1.1% 99.8%  
75 3% 98.6%  
76 5% 96%  
77 10% 91%  
78 13% 81%  
79 16% 68%  
80 15% 52% Median
81 13% 37%  
82 13% 24%  
83 6% 10%  
84 3% 4%  
85 0.9% 1.1%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0.2% 100%  
60 0.8% 99.8%  
61 2% 99.0%  
62 4% 97%  
63 9% 93%  
64 10% 84%  
65 15% 74%  
66 16% 59% Median
67 16% 43%  
68 11% 27%  
69 8% 16%  
70 4% 7%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.7% 0.9%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 1.5% 99.6%  
48 3% 98%  
49 6% 95%  
50 11% 88% Median
51 12% 77% Last Result, Majority
52 17% 66%  
53 16% 48%  
54 14% 33%  
55 10% 19%  
56 6% 9%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.7% 0.9%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.8%  
45 2% 99.4%  
46 3% 98%  
47 9% 94%  
48 12% 85%  
49 16% 73%  
50 17% 57% Median
51 15% 40% Majority
52 13% 25%  
53 6% 13%  
54 5% 7%  
55 1.5% 2%  
56 0.5% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 1.2% 99.8%  
44 3% 98.6%  
45 5% 96%  
46 7% 91% Median
47 10% 84%  
48 16% 74%  
49 19% 58%  
50 15% 39%  
51 9% 24% Majority
52 8% 15%  
53 5% 7%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 1.2% 99.8%  
44 3% 98.6%  
45 5% 96%  
46 7% 91% Median
47 10% 84%  
48 16% 74%  
49 19% 58%  
50 15% 39%  
51 9% 24% Majority
52 8% 15%  
53 5% 7%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.8% 99.8%  
42 4% 99.0%  
43 10% 95%  
44 10% 85%  
45 12% 75% Last Result
46 12% 64% Median
47 14% 51%  
48 14% 37%  
49 13% 23%  
50 8% 11%  
51 2% 3% Majority
52 0.4% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.9% 99.8%  
39 3% 98.9%  
40 8% 96%  
41 9% 88%  
42 16% 79%  
43 19% 64%  
44 16% 44% Median
45 12% 28%  
46 8% 16%  
47 5% 8%  
48 3% 4%  
49 1.0% 1.1%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.4% 99.9%  
37 2% 99.5%  
38 4% 98%  
39 8% 93%  
40 9% 85% Median
41 14% 76%  
42 17% 62%  
43 15% 45%  
44 12% 30%  
45 9% 18%  
46 5% 8%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.9% 1.2%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 1.5% 99.5%  
36 3% 98%  
37 9% 95%  
38 15% 86%  
39 18% 71%  
40 16% 53% Median
41 15% 37%  
42 11% 22% Last Result
43 7% 11%  
44 3% 4%  
45 1.2% 2%  
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.3% 100%  
33 1.5% 99.7%  
34 4% 98%  
35 5% 95%  
36 7% 89% Median
37 13% 82%  
38 16% 69%  
39 15% 53%  
40 14% 39%  
41 10% 25%  
42 7% 15%  
43 5% 8%  
44 2% 3% Last Result
45 0.7% 0.8%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.9%  
20 3% 99.5%  
21 8% 97%  
22 15% 89% Last Result
23 20% 74%  
24 21% 55% Median
25 17% 33%  
26 10% 16%  
27 4% 6%  
28 1.3% 2%  
29 0.3% 0.4%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations