Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 12–18 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 30.0% 28.1–32.0% 27.5–32.5% 27.1–33.0% 26.2–34.0%
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 21.6% 19.9–23.4% 19.4–23.9% 19.0–24.4% 18.2–25.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 19.1% 17.5–20.8% 17.0–21.3% 16.6–21.7% 15.9–22.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 10.6% 9.4–12.0% 9.0–12.4% 8.7–12.7% 8.2–13.5%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 4.9–7.5% 4.7–7.8% 4.3–8.4%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 5.8% 5.0–7.0% 4.7–7.3% 4.5–7.6% 4.1–8.1%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 5.8% 5.0–7.0% 4.7–7.3% 4.5–7.6% 4.1–8.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 30 33 31–36 30–37 29–38 29–39
Eesti Keskerakond 27 23 21–25 20–26 20–27 19–28
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 20 18–22 17–23 17–23 16–25
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 10 9–12 8–12 8–13 7–14
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 5 4–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Isamaa 14 5 4–6 0–7 0–7 0–7
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 5 0–6 0–7 0–7 0–7

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.5%  
30 5% 97% Last Result
31 12% 93%  
32 17% 81%  
33 18% 64% Median
34 19% 46%  
35 12% 27%  
36 8% 15%  
37 4% 7%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.6% 0.9%  
40 0.3% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 1.4% 99.8%  
20 5% 98%  
21 11% 93%  
22 21% 82%  
23 21% 61% Median
24 19% 40%  
25 13% 22%  
26 6% 9%  
27 2% 3% Last Result
28 0.7% 0.9%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.0% 99.9%  
17 4% 98.9%  
18 12% 95%  
19 20% 83%  
20 25% 62% Median
21 20% 38%  
22 11% 18%  
23 5% 7%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.4% 0.6%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.5% 100%  
8 6% 99.4%  
9 23% 93%  
10 30% 70% Median
11 25% 40%  
12 12% 15%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0.5% 0.5%  
15 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
16 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 0% 92%  
2 0% 92%  
3 0% 92%  
4 9% 92%  
5 43% 83% Median
6 32% 41%  
7 8% 9%  
8 0.9% 1.0%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 0% 92%  
2 0% 92%  
3 0% 92%  
4 24% 92%  
5 37% 68% Median
6 24% 31%  
7 6% 7%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 0% 87%  
2 0% 87%  
3 0% 87%  
4 14% 87%  
5 42% 73% Median
6 25% 30%  
7 5% 5%  
8 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 76 100% 73–80 73–81 72–82 71–85
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 58 99.9% 55–61 54–62 54–63 52–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 57 56 99.7% 53–60 53–61 52–62 51–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 53 89% 50–57 50–58 49–59 48–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Vabaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 67 53 84% 50–56 49–57 48–57 47–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 48 18% 45–51 44–52 44–53 42–55
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 43 0.2% 40–46 40–47 39–48 38–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 43 0.3% 41–46 40–47 39–48 38–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 38 0% 35–41 34–42 33–43 32–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 38 0% 35–41 34–42 33–42 32–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 33 0% 31–36 30–37 29–38 28–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 30 0% 28–33 27–34 27–34 26–36

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.7% 99.8%  
72 3% 99.1%  
73 7% 96%  
74 13% 89%  
75 16% 76%  
76 18% 60% Median
77 12% 42%  
78 9% 30%  
79 7% 21%  
80 6% 14%  
81 4% 8%  
82 2% 4%  
83 1.0% 2%  
84 0.5% 1.2%  
85 0.3% 0.7%  
86 0.3% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9% Last Result, Majority
52 0.6% 99.7%  
53 1.4% 99.1%  
54 4% 98%  
55 7% 94%  
56 13% 87%  
57 19% 74%  
58 12% 55% Median
59 16% 44%  
60 12% 27%  
61 6% 15%  
62 4% 9%  
63 2% 5%  
64 1.4% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.9%  
66 0.3% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.9% 99.7% Majority
52 3% 98.8%  
53 7% 96%  
54 12% 89%  
55 14% 78%  
56 18% 64% Median
57 16% 46% Last Result
58 12% 30%  
59 8% 19%  
60 4% 11%  
61 3% 6%  
62 1.5% 3%  
63 0.7% 1.3%  
64 0.3% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 1.0% 99.7%  
49 2% 98.7%  
50 7% 96%  
51 13% 89% Majority
52 15% 77%  
53 15% 62% Median
54 17% 46%  
55 11% 29%  
56 7% 18%  
57 5% 11%  
58 3% 6%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.4% 1.0%  
61 0.5% 0.6%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Vabaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.8%  
47 0.9% 99.5%  
48 2% 98.6%  
49 4% 97%  
50 9% 92%  
51 13% 84% Majority
52 16% 71%  
53 16% 55% Median
54 13% 39%  
55 13% 26%  
56 7% 12%  
57 4% 6%  
58 1.3% 2%  
59 0.5% 0.8%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.5% 99.7%  
43 1.5% 99.2%  
44 3% 98%  
45 6% 94%  
46 11% 89%  
47 16% 77%  
48 17% 62% Median
49 13% 45%  
50 13% 31%  
51 9% 18% Majority
52 5% 9%  
53 2% 4%  
54 1.3% 2%  
55 0.6% 0.8%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0.9% 99.7%  
39 3% 98.7%  
40 7% 96%  
41 16% 89%  
42 14% 73%  
43 18% 59% Median
44 13% 41%  
45 13% 29%  
46 9% 16%  
47 3% 6%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.9% 1.3%  
50 0.3% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.2% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.7% 99.8%  
39 2% 99.2%  
40 5% 97%  
41 10% 92%  
42 16% 82%  
43 19% 66% Median
44 15% 48%  
45 14% 33% Last Result
46 9% 19%  
47 5% 10%  
48 3% 5%  
49 1.1% 2%  
50 0.6% 0.9%  
51 0.2% 0.3% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 0.7% 99.6%  
33 2% 98.9%  
34 3% 97%  
35 7% 94%  
36 12% 87%  
37 14% 75%  
38 17% 61% Median
39 18% 44%  
40 11% 26%  
41 8% 15%  
42 4% 7%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.6% 1.0% Last Result
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.9% 99.7%  
33 2% 98.8%  
34 4% 97%  
35 5% 93%  
36 12% 87%  
37 15% 76%  
38 19% 61% Median
39 15% 41%  
40 13% 27%  
41 8% 14%  
42 4% 6%  
43 1.2% 2%  
44 0.8% 1.1%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.5%  
30 4% 97%  
31 13% 93%  
32 17% 80%  
33 16% 63% Median
34 20% 47%  
35 13% 27%  
36 8% 14%  
37 4% 6%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.6% 0.9%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.5%  
27 6% 98%  
28 11% 92%  
29 18% 81%  
30 19% 63% Median
31 19% 44%  
32 12% 25%  
33 7% 13%  
34 4% 6%  
35 1.3% 2%  
36 0.6% 0.7%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations