Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR, 19 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 33.7% 31.8–35.7% 31.3–36.2% 30.8–36.7% 29.9–37.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 26.5% 24.8–28.3% 24.3–28.9% 23.9–29.3% 23.0–30.2%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 14.3% 13.0–15.8% 12.6–16.2% 12.3–16.6% 11.6–17.4%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.3%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 30 40 38–43 37–43 36–44 35–46
Eesti Keskerakond 27 31 28–33 28–34 27–34 26–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 15 14–17 13–18 13–18 12–19
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 6 5–7 0–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Isamaa 14 0 0 0–5 0–5 0–5
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.7% 99.7%  
36 3% 99.0%  
37 6% 96%  
38 12% 90%  
39 17% 79%  
40 19% 61% Median
41 17% 42%  
42 13% 25%  
43 7% 12%  
44 3% 5%  
45 1.2% 2%  
46 0.4% 0.6%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.9% 99.8%  
27 3% 98.9% Last Result
28 8% 96%  
29 14% 88%  
30 22% 74%  
31 20% 52% Median
32 16% 32%  
33 10% 16%  
34 4% 6%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.4% 0.5%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.2% 100%  
12 2% 99.8%  
13 8% 98%  
14 21% 90%  
15 28% 70% Median
16 24% 42%  
17 12% 18%  
18 4% 5%  
19 1.1% 1.2%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 2% 95%  
5 36% 92%  
6 40% 56% Median
7 14% 16%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Median
1 0% 10%  
2 0% 10%  
3 0% 10%  
4 4% 10%  
5 5% 5%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.1% 0.2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 86 100% 84–88 82–89 81–91 80–93
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 57 71 100% 68–73 67–74 66–75 65–77
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 56 99.6% 53–59 53–59 52–60 51–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 55 98.7% 53–58 52–59 51–60 50–61
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 46 2% 43–49 43–49 42–50 41–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 46 2% 43–49 43–50 42–50 40–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 46 2% 43–49 43–50 42–50 40–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 46 0.9% 43–48 42–49 41–50 39–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 40 0% 38–43 37–44 37–45 35–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 37 0% 34–39 33–40 32–41 30–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 36 0% 33–39 33–39 32–40 29–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 21 0% 19–23 17–23 16–24 14–25

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0.2% 100%  
80 0.8% 99.8%  
81 2% 99.0%  
82 3% 97%  
83 4% 94%  
84 8% 90%  
85 16% 82%  
86 29% 66% Median
87 20% 37%  
88 10% 17%  
89 2% 7%  
90 0.8% 4%  
91 1.4% 4%  
92 1.3% 2%  
93 0.9% 0.9%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.9% 99.7%  
66 2% 98.8%  
67 3% 97%  
68 7% 94%  
69 12% 86%  
70 19% 75%  
71 21% 56% Median
72 16% 35%  
73 10% 19%  
74 5% 9%  
75 2% 4%  
76 1.0% 2%  
77 0.8% 1.2%  
78 0.2% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.9%  
51 1.4% 99.6% Last Result, Majority
52 3% 98%  
53 9% 95%  
54 15% 86%  
55 17% 71% Median
56 18% 54%  
57 15% 37%  
58 11% 21%  
59 6% 10%  
60 3% 5%  
61 1.0% 2%  
62 0.5% 0.8%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 0.9% 99.6%  
51 3% 98.7% Majority
52 5% 96%  
53 10% 92%  
54 17% 81%  
55 17% 64% Median
56 17% 47%  
57 14% 30%  
58 9% 16%  
59 4% 7%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.6% 1.1%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 1.4% 99.5%  
42 3% 98%  
43 8% 95%  
44 13% 88%  
45 17% 74%  
46 19% 57% Median
47 18% 39%  
48 11% 21%  
49 6% 10%  
50 3% 4%  
51 1.0% 2% Majority
52 0.4% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.6%  
41 1.2% 99.2%  
42 3% 98%  
43 7% 95%  
44 11% 88%  
45 17% 77%  
46 19% 60% Median
47 16% 41%  
48 13% 25%  
49 6% 12%  
50 3% 6%  
51 1.5% 2% Majority
52 0.5% 0.7%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.6%  
41 1.2% 99.2%  
42 3% 98%  
43 7% 95%  
44 11% 88%  
45 17% 77%  
46 19% 60% Median
47 16% 41%  
48 13% 25%  
49 6% 12%  
50 3% 6%  
51 1.5% 2% Majority
52 0.5% 0.6%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 0.8% 99.4%  
41 2% 98.5%  
42 4% 97%  
43 9% 93%  
44 13% 84%  
45 18% 71% Last Result
46 19% 53% Median
47 15% 34%  
48 11% 19%  
49 5% 8%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.7% 0.9% Majority
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.5% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.4%  
37 4% 98%  
38 10% 94%  
39 16% 83%  
40 18% 68% Median
41 18% 50%  
42 14% 32%  
43 9% 18%  
44 5% 9% Last Result
45 2% 4%  
46 1.1% 2%  
47 0.3% 0.6%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.3% 99.7%  
31 0.6% 99.4%  
32 2% 98.8%  
33 5% 97%  
34 8% 92%  
35 17% 84%  
36 17% 68%  
37 17% 51% Median
38 17% 34%  
39 9% 17%  
40 4% 8%  
41 3% 4%  
42 0.9% 1.4%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.4% 99.8%  
30 0.5% 99.5%  
31 0.9% 99.0%  
32 2% 98%  
33 6% 96%  
34 10% 90%  
35 18% 80%  
36 18% 61%  
37 17% 44% Median
38 16% 27%  
39 7% 11%  
40 3% 4%  
41 1.1% 1.4%  
42 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.5% 99.8%  
15 1.0% 99.3%  
16 2% 98%  
17 2% 97%  
18 4% 95%  
19 12% 91%  
20 19% 78%  
21 26% 59% Median
22 18% 33% Last Result
23 10% 15%  
24 3% 5%  
25 1.2% 1.4%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations