Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 21 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 32.0% 30.1–34.1% 29.5–34.7% 29.0–35.2% 28.1–36.2%
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 21.1% 19.4–22.9% 18.9–23.4% 18.5–23.9% 17.7–24.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 16.7% 15.2–18.4% 14.7–18.9% 14.4–19.3% 13.7–20.2%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 11.9% 10.6–13.4% 10.2–13.8% 9.9–14.2% 9.3–15.0%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 5.0% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.4% 3.8–6.7% 3.4–7.3%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.3% 2.9–5.5% 2.6–6.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 3.0% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.0–4.3% 1.8–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 30 38 35–41 34–42 34–43 32–44
Eesti Keskerakond 27 23 21–26 21–27 20–27 19–29
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 18 16–20 16–21 15–22 14–23
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 12 11–14 10–15 10–15 9–16
Erakond Isamaa 14 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0–5 0–5 0–5
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.8%  
33 2% 99.3%  
34 4% 98%  
35 7% 94%  
36 14% 86%  
37 15% 72%  
38 18% 57% Median
39 16% 39%  
40 11% 23%  
41 6% 12%  
42 3% 6%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.6% 0.9%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.9% 99.9%  
20 3% 98.9%  
21 8% 96%  
22 15% 87%  
23 22% 72% Median
24 18% 50%  
25 15% 32%  
26 10% 17%  
27 5% 7% Last Result
28 2% 2%  
29 0.4% 0.6%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.7% 99.9%  
15 4% 99.2%  
16 10% 95%  
17 21% 85%  
18 23% 64% Median
19 20% 41%  
20 12% 22%  
21 7% 9%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.6% 0.7%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 1.0% 99.9%  
10 7% 98.9%  
11 18% 92%  
12 28% 74% Median
13 26% 46%  
14 14% 20%  
15 5% 6% Last Result
16 1.3% 2%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100%  
1 0% 54%  
2 0% 54%  
3 0% 54%  
4 9% 54% Median
5 36% 46%  
6 9% 10%  
7 1.0% 1.0%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Median
1 0% 9%  
2 0% 9%  
3 0% 9%  
4 4% 9%  
5 5% 6%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.1% 0.2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 79 100% 76–83 75–84 75–85 73–88
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 57 61 100% 58–65 57–66 56–67 55–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 59 99.9% 56–62 55–63 54–64 52–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 56 98.6% 53–60 52–60 51–61 50–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 54 87% 50–57 49–58 48–58 47–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 53 83% 50–56 49–57 48–58 46–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 50 47% 47–54 46–54 45–56 44–57
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 42 0% 39–45 38–46 37–47 36–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 41 0% 37–44 36–45 35–46 34–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 39 0% 35–42 34–43 34–44 32–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 36 0% 33–39 32–40 32–41 31–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 31 0% 28–33 27–34 27–35 25–36

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.3% 99.8%  
73 0.7% 99.5%  
74 1.2% 98.8%  
75 3% 98%  
76 7% 94%  
77 11% 87%  
78 17% 77%  
79 11% 60% Median
80 10% 49%  
81 9% 40%  
82 11% 31%  
83 11% 20%  
84 5% 9%  
85 2% 4%  
86 0.6% 2%  
87 0.5% 1.2%  
88 0.4% 0.7%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.3% 99.9%  
55 0.6% 99.7%  
56 2% 99.0%  
57 4% 97% Last Result
58 6% 94%  
59 12% 87%  
60 12% 76%  
61 15% 64% Median
62 13% 49%  
63 11% 36%  
64 10% 25%  
65 8% 14%  
66 3% 7%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.8% 1.5%  
69 0.3% 0.6%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9% Last Result, Majority
52 0.4% 99.8%  
53 1.1% 99.4%  
54 3% 98%  
55 5% 96%  
56 9% 91%  
57 11% 82%  
58 15% 71%  
59 15% 56%  
60 16% 41% Median
61 12% 25%  
62 7% 13%  
63 3% 6%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.7% 1.2%  
66 0.3% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 0.9% 99.5%  
51 2% 98.6% Majority
52 4% 97%  
53 8% 92%  
54 11% 84%  
55 15% 73%  
56 17% 58% Median
57 13% 42%  
58 10% 28%  
59 8% 18%  
60 6% 10%  
61 2% 4%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0.6% 0.9%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.8% 99.8%  
48 2% 99.0%  
49 4% 97%  
50 6% 93%  
51 10% 87% Majority
52 13% 77%  
53 14% 64%  
54 15% 50% Median
55 13% 35%  
56 11% 22%  
57 5% 11%  
58 3% 5%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0.6% 1.0%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.4% 99.8%  
47 1.2% 99.4%  
48 2% 98%  
49 5% 96%  
50 8% 91%  
51 11% 83% Majority
52 14% 71%  
53 14% 58%  
54 14% 44% Median
55 11% 30%  
56 10% 19%  
57 4% 8%  
58 2% 4%  
59 1.1% 2% Last Result
60 0.3% 0.5%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.7% 99.7%  
45 2% 99.0% Last Result
46 4% 97%  
47 7% 94%  
48 10% 87%  
49 15% 76%  
50 15% 62% Median
51 15% 47% Majority
52 13% 31%  
53 8% 18%  
54 5% 10%  
55 2% 5%  
56 1.5% 3%  
57 0.6% 1.1%  
58 0.3% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 0.7% 99.7%  
37 2% 99.0%  
38 5% 97%  
39 10% 92%  
40 13% 82%  
41 15% 69% Median
42 15% 54%  
43 15% 39%  
44 11% 24%  
45 7% 14%  
46 4% 7%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.7% 1.1%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.6% 99.7%  
35 2% 99.2%  
36 4% 97%  
37 6% 94%  
38 10% 88%  
39 11% 78%  
40 14% 67%  
41 14% 53%  
42 14% 39% Median
43 11% 25%  
44 8% 14% Last Result
45 4% 6%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.7% 1.0%  
48 0.3% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.8%  
33 1.4% 99.3%  
34 4% 98%  
35 6% 94%  
36 9% 88%  
37 11% 80%  
38 13% 68%  
39 15% 55% Median
40 13% 40%  
41 13% 27%  
42 7% 14%  
43 3% 7%  
44 2% 4%  
45 0.8% 1.2%  
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 1.5% 99.5%  
32 4% 98%  
33 7% 94%  
34 14% 88%  
35 16% 74% Median
36 18% 58%  
37 15% 40%  
38 11% 25%  
39 8% 14%  
40 4% 6%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.5% 0.8% Last Result
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.5%  
27 5% 98%  
28 9% 93%  
29 14% 84%  
30 19% 70% Median
31 20% 51%  
32 13% 31%  
33 10% 18%  
34 4% 8%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.8% 1.1%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations