Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR, 21 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 30.0% 28.2–31.9% 27.7–32.4% 27.2–32.9% 26.4–33.9%
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.4% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–17.0% 12.9–17.4% 12.3–18.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 30 35 33–38 32–39 31–39 30–40
Eesti Keskerakond 27 30 28–32 27–33 26–34 25–35
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 16 14–18 14–19 13–19 13–20
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Erakond Isamaa 14 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.7% 99.8% Last Result
31 3% 99.1%  
32 5% 96%  
33 12% 91%  
34 17% 80%  
35 20% 63% Median
36 17% 43%  
37 13% 27%  
38 7% 14%  
39 4% 6%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.4% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.6% 99.9%  
26 3% 99.2%  
27 6% 96% Last Result
28 11% 90%  
29 18% 79%  
30 24% 61% Median
31 16% 37%  
32 11% 21%  
33 6% 10%  
34 3% 4%  
35 0.8% 1.1%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.4% 100%  
13 3% 99.6%  
14 10% 97%  
15 20% 86%  
16 27% 66% Median
17 22% 39%  
18 12% 17%  
19 5% 6%  
20 1.0% 1.2%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.7% 100%  
7 8% 99.3%  
8 27% 91%  
9 33% 64% Median
10 23% 31%  
11 7% 8%  
12 1.3% 1.5%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100%  
1 0% 52%  
2 0% 52%  
3 0% 52%  
4 10% 52% Median
5 34% 42%  
6 7% 8%  
7 0.5% 0.6%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0% 7%  
4 3% 7%  
5 4% 4%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 81 100% 78–85 77–85 76–86 74–87
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 57 65 100% 62–68 61–69 60–70 59–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 54 93% 51–57 50–58 49–58 48–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 51 63% 48–55 47–55 47–56 45–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 47 6% 44–50 43–51 42–51 41–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 47 5% 44–50 43–51 42–51 41–53
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 46 2% 43–49 42–50 42–50 40–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 44 0.2% 41–47 41–48 40–49 38–50
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 41 0% 38–45 38–45 37–46 35–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 39 0% 36–42 35–42 35–43 34–45
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 38 0% 35–41 34–42 33–42 32–44
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 25 0% 23–27 22–28 22–29 21–30

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.8%  
75 0.9% 99.5%  
76 2% 98.6%  
77 4% 97%  
78 9% 93%  
79 12% 85%  
80 15% 73%  
81 11% 58% Median
82 11% 47%  
83 11% 36%  
84 12% 25%  
85 9% 14%  
86 4% 5%  
87 1.0% 1.1%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100% Last Result
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.8% 99.7%  
60 2% 98.8%  
61 4% 97%  
62 7% 93%  
63 12% 86%  
64 14% 74%  
65 13% 60% Median
66 16% 47%  
67 13% 31%  
68 8% 18%  
69 6% 10%  
70 3% 4%  
71 1.1% 1.4%  
72 0.3% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 0.8% 99.6%  
49 2% 98.8%  
50 4% 97%  
51 7% 93% Last Result, Majority
52 15% 86%  
53 14% 71%  
54 14% 57%  
55 17% 43% Median
56 13% 26%  
57 7% 13%  
58 4% 6%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0.4% 0.5%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.4% 99.9%  
46 1.5% 99.4%  
47 3% 98%  
48 7% 95%  
49 10% 88%  
50 14% 78%  
51 15% 63% Median, Majority
52 19% 49%  
53 11% 30%  
54 8% 19%  
55 6% 10%  
56 3% 5%  
57 0.8% 1.2%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 1.2% 99.6%  
42 2% 98%  
43 5% 96%  
44 10% 91%  
45 10% 80%  
46 16% 70%  
47 15% 54%  
48 13% 39% Median
49 13% 26%  
50 7% 12%  
51 3% 6% Majority
52 2% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 1.2% 99.6%  
42 2% 98%  
43 5% 96%  
44 10% 91%  
45 10% 80%  
46 16% 70%  
47 15% 54%  
48 13% 39% Median
49 13% 26%  
50 7% 12%  
51 3% 5% Majority
52 2% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.4%  
42 4% 98%  
43 6% 94%  
44 12% 88%  
45 16% 75%  
46 16% 59% Median
47 16% 43%  
48 10% 27%  
49 10% 17%  
50 4% 7%  
51 2% 2% Majority
52 0.8% 1.0%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.9%  
39 1.2% 99.5%  
40 3% 98%  
41 7% 95%  
42 11% 88%  
43 15% 77%  
44 19% 62% Median
45 15% 42% Last Result
46 12% 28%  
47 9% 16%  
48 4% 7%  
49 2% 3%  
50 1.0% 1.2%  
51 0.1% 0.2% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.8%  
36 1.0% 99.4%  
37 3% 98%  
38 8% 96%  
39 9% 87%  
40 13% 78%  
41 16% 65%  
42 13% 49%  
43 14% 36% Median
44 11% 22%  
45 7% 12%  
46 3% 5%  
47 1.3% 2%  
48 0.3% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.9%  
34 1.3% 99.5%  
35 4% 98%  
36 7% 94%  
37 11% 87%  
38 19% 76%  
39 17% 57% Median
40 17% 40%  
41 12% 23%  
42 6% 11% Last Result
43 2% 4%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0.5% 0.6%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 1.0% 99.6%  
33 3% 98.6%  
34 5% 96%  
35 10% 90%  
36 13% 81%  
37 12% 67%  
38 15% 55%  
39 15% 40% Median
40 11% 26%  
41 8% 15%  
42 4% 7%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.6% 0.8% Last Result
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.3% 100%  
21 2% 99.6%  
22 5% 98% Last Result
23 14% 93%  
24 18% 79%  
25 19% 61% Median
26 22% 43%  
27 12% 21%  
28 6% 9%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.5% 0.7%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations