Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR, 29 May–11 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 28.0% 26.3–29.9% 25.8–30.5% 25.3–30.9% 24.5–31.8%
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.4–29.9% 23.6–30.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.0–21.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 9.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 30 32 30–35 29–36 29–36 27–37
Eesti Keskerakond 27 31 29–33 28–34 27–35 26–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 20 17–22 17–22 16–23 16–24
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 9 7–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Erakond Isamaa 14 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–6
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.5% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.4%  
29 6% 98%  
30 10% 92% Last Result
31 17% 82%  
32 18% 65% Median
33 18% 47%  
34 16% 29%  
35 7% 13%  
36 5% 6%  
37 1.0% 1.4%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.7% 99.8%  
27 3% 99.2% Last Result
28 6% 96%  
29 11% 91%  
30 20% 80%  
31 23% 59% Median
32 16% 36%  
33 11% 19%  
34 5% 9%  
35 2% 4%  
36 0.9% 1.3%  
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.3% 100%  
16 2% 99.7%  
17 8% 97%  
18 16% 90%  
19 22% 73%  
20 24% 51% Median
21 17% 27%  
22 7% 10%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.5% 0.7%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.0% 100%  
7 9% 99.0%  
8 29% 90%  
9 35% 61% Median
10 19% 26%  
11 6% 7%  
12 0.9% 1.0%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 49% 100%  
1 0% 51%  
2 0% 51%  
3 0% 51%  
4 14% 51% Median
5 31% 37%  
6 6% 6%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 0% 8%  
4 4% 8%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 83 100% 79–86 79–87 78–87 76–88
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 57 63 100% 60–66 59–67 58–68 57–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 54 94% 51–57 50–58 50–59 48–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 52 71% 49–55 48–56 47–56 46–58
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 50 50% 47–53 47–54 46–55 45–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 44 0.3% 41–47 40–48 39–49 38–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 44 0.1% 40–47 40–48 39–48 37–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 42 0% 39–46 38–46 38–47 36–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 41 0% 38–44 38–45 37–45 36–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 40 0% 37–42 36–43 36–44 34–45
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 35 0% 31–38 31–39 30–39 29–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 28 0% 26–31 25–31 25–32 24–33

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.5% 99.7%  
77 1.1% 99.2%  
78 3% 98%  
79 6% 95%  
80 10% 90%  
81 14% 80%  
82 14% 66%  
83 11% 52% Median
84 10% 41%  
85 15% 31%  
86 10% 16%  
87 4% 6%  
88 2% 2%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.6% 99.7% Last Result
58 2% 99.2%  
59 5% 97%  
60 6% 92%  
61 10% 86%  
62 10% 77%  
63 19% 66% Median
64 17% 47%  
65 15% 30%  
66 7% 15%  
67 4% 9%  
68 3% 4%  
69 0.9% 1.3%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.8%  
49 2% 99.3%  
50 3% 98%  
51 5% 94% Last Result, Majority
52 11% 89%  
53 12% 78%  
54 18% 66%  
55 17% 48%  
56 15% 31% Median
57 8% 15%  
58 4% 7%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.7% 0.9%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.7% 99.7%  
47 2% 99.0%  
48 5% 97%  
49 9% 92%  
50 13% 84%  
51 16% 71% Majority
52 17% 54% Median
53 12% 38%  
54 12% 26%  
55 8% 14%  
56 4% 6%  
57 2% 2%  
58 0.3% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 1.3% 99.6%  
46 2% 98%  
47 7% 96%  
48 8% 89%  
49 14% 80%  
50 17% 67%  
51 18% 50% Median, Majority
52 12% 32%  
53 11% 20%  
54 5% 9%  
55 3% 4%  
56 0.8% 1.3%  
57 0.4% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.7% 99.7%  
39 2% 99.1%  
40 5% 97%  
41 8% 92%  
42 11% 84%  
43 17% 73%  
44 15% 56%  
45 16% 41% Median
46 10% 26%  
47 8% 15%  
48 5% 8%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.7% 1.0%  
51 0.3% 0.3% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.8%  
38 1.0% 99.5%  
39 3% 98%  
40 6% 95%  
41 10% 90%  
42 12% 80%  
43 18% 69%  
44 14% 51%  
45 15% 37% Median
46 10% 21%  
47 6% 12%  
48 4% 5%  
49 1.2% 2%  
50 0.4% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.4% 99.8%  
37 1.2% 99.4%  
38 4% 98%  
39 8% 94%  
40 14% 86%  
41 12% 72%  
42 15% 61%  
43 13% 46%  
44 15% 33% Median
45 8% 18%  
46 6% 10%  
47 3% 4%  
48 0.8% 1.1%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 1.1% 99.6%  
37 3% 98%  
38 7% 95%  
39 13% 89%  
40 14% 76%  
41 19% 62% Median
42 14% 43%  
43 13% 28%  
44 8% 15%  
45 4% 6% Last Result
46 1.4% 2%  
47 0.5% 0.7%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.5%  
36 4% 98%  
37 7% 94%  
38 15% 88%  
39 17% 73%  
40 22% 56% Median
41 14% 34%  
42 10% 20% Last Result
43 5% 10%  
44 3% 4%  
45 1.2% 2%  
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 0.9% 99.6%  
30 2% 98.7%  
31 7% 96%  
32 7% 90%  
33 13% 82%  
34 17% 69%  
35 14% 53%  
36 14% 39% Median
37 12% 25%  
38 7% 14%  
39 4% 7%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.5% 0.7%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0.3% 100%  
24 1.3% 99.7%  
25 5% 98%  
26 10% 93%  
27 17% 83%  
28 17% 66%  
29 23% 49% Median
30 13% 27%  
31 10% 14%  
32 3% 4%  
33 0.9% 1.2%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations