Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 1–17 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 32.0% 30.1–34.1% 29.5–34.7% 29.0–35.2% 28.1–36.2%
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 23.0% 21.2–24.9% 20.7–25.4% 20.3–25.9% 19.5–26.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 17.0% 15.5–18.8% 15.1–19.3% 14.7–19.7% 14.0–20.5%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 14.0% 12.5–15.6% 12.1–16.0% 11.8–16.4% 11.2–17.2%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 7.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6% 5.5–8.9% 5.0–9.5%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 5.0% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.4% 3.8–6.7% 3.4–7.3%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 3.0% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.0–4.3% 1.8–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 30 36 33–39 33–39 32–40 31–41
Eesti Keskerakond 27 25 23–27 22–28 21–28 20–29
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 18 16–19 15–20 15–21 14–22
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 14 12–16 12–16 11–17 11–18
Erakond Isamaa 14 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 0–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–6
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
31 2% 99.6%  
32 3% 98%  
33 5% 95%  
34 10% 90%  
35 19% 80%  
36 20% 61% Median
37 17% 41%  
38 12% 24%  
39 7% 12%  
40 3% 5%  
41 2% 2%  
42 0.2% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.7% 99.9%  
21 2% 99.2%  
22 6% 97%  
23 10% 91%  
24 19% 81%  
25 22% 62% Median
26 25% 40%  
27 10% 15% Last Result
28 3% 5%  
29 1.4% 2%  
30 0.4% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 1.3% 99.8%  
15 5% 98%  
16 16% 93%  
17 21% 77%  
18 25% 56% Median
19 21% 31%  
20 6% 10%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.6% 0.8%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 3% 99.7%  
12 9% 97%  
13 27% 88%  
14 23% 61% Median
15 21% 39% Last Result
16 13% 17%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.7% 0.8%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 0% 99.4%  
2 0% 99.4%  
3 0% 99.4%  
4 2% 99.4%  
5 13% 98%  
6 40% 85% Median
7 34% 45%  
8 9% 11%  
9 1.4% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 62% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 38%  
2 0% 38%  
3 0% 38%  
4 12% 38%  
5 20% 26%  
6 5% 6%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 79 100% 75–82 74–82 74–83 73–84
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 57 61 100% 58–64 57–65 56–65 55–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 60 100% 57–64 56–64 55–64 53–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 57 99.3% 53–60 52–60 52–61 50–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 57 99.3% 53–60 52–60 52–61 50–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 54 93% 51–57 50–58 49–58 48–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 50 45% 47–54 46–54 45–54 44–56
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 46 0.6% 42–48 42–49 41–50 39–51
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 43 0% 40–45 39–46 38–47 37–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 43 0% 40–45 39–46 38–47 37–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 39 0% 36–41 36–42 35–43 33–44
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 32 0% 29–35 29–35 28–35 27–37

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.4% 99.9%  
73 1.3% 99.5%  
74 4% 98%  
75 6% 95%  
76 9% 89%  
77 11% 80%  
78 14% 68%  
79 13% 54% Median
80 17% 41%  
81 9% 25%  
82 12% 15%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.6% 1.0%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0% 0.2%  
87 0.2% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.9% 99.7%  
56 4% 98.8%  
57 4% 95% Last Result
58 8% 91%  
59 9% 83%  
60 14% 74%  
61 14% 60% Median
62 20% 46%  
63 12% 27%  
64 10% 15%  
65 3% 5%  
66 1.0% 2%  
67 0.7% 1.1%  
68 0.3% 0.4%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result, Majority
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.6% 99.9%  
54 0.8% 99.3%  
55 2% 98.5%  
56 3% 96%  
57 5% 94%  
58 10% 88%  
59 14% 79%  
60 19% 64% Median
61 22% 46%  
62 11% 24%  
63 3% 13%  
64 8% 11%  
65 2% 2%  
66 0.4% 0.4%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.8%  
51 0.8% 99.3% Majority
52 4% 98%  
53 6% 95%  
54 11% 88%  
55 7% 77%  
56 20% 70% Median
57 14% 50%  
58 15% 37%  
59 10% 22%  
60 8% 12%  
61 3% 4%  
62 0.6% 0.8%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.8%  
51 0.8% 99.3% Majority
52 4% 98%  
53 6% 95%  
54 11% 88%  
55 7% 77%  
56 20% 70% Median
57 14% 50%  
58 15% 37%  
59 10% 21% Last Result
60 8% 12%  
61 3% 4%  
62 0.6% 0.8%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 2% 99.7%  
49 2% 98%  
50 3% 96%  
51 6% 93% Majority
52 11% 86%  
53 21% 76%  
54 22% 54% Median
55 12% 32%  
56 8% 21%  
57 7% 13%  
58 3% 6%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.7% 99.9%  
45 2% 99.1% Last Result
46 4% 97%  
47 7% 94%  
48 12% 86%  
49 8% 74%  
50 21% 66% Median
51 22% 45% Majority
52 8% 23%  
53 5% 15%  
54 8% 10%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.7%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.6% 99.8%  
40 0.7% 99.2%  
41 2% 98.5%  
42 7% 97%  
43 12% 90%  
44 16% 78%  
45 12% 62% Median
46 15% 51%  
47 18% 36%  
48 12% 18%  
49 3% 5%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.3% 0.6% Majority
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0.3% 100%  
37 1.0% 99.6%  
38 2% 98.6%  
39 4% 96%  
40 7% 93%  
41 16% 86%  
42 16% 70%  
43 20% 54% Median
44 13% 34%  
45 15% 21%  
46 3% 6%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.9% 1.2%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.6%  
38 2% 98%  
39 5% 96%  
40 9% 91%  
41 16% 82%  
42 10% 65% Median
43 26% 56%  
44 11% 29% Last Result
45 12% 18%  
46 2% 6%  
47 3% 4%  
48 0.3% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.5% 99.9%  
34 0.7% 99.4%  
35 2% 98.7%  
36 8% 96%  
37 18% 89%  
38 10% 71%  
39 14% 61% Median
40 24% 47%  
41 13% 23%  
42 6% 9% Last Result
43 3% 4%  
44 0.8% 1.2%  
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.3% 100%  
27 1.4% 99.7%  
28 3% 98%  
29 8% 95%  
30 11% 87%  
31 15% 76%  
32 33% 61% Median
33 11% 28%  
34 7% 18%  
35 8% 11%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.3% 0.6%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations