Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 24–30 July 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 29.6% 27.5–31.8% 26.9–32.5% 26.4–33.0% 25.4–34.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 23.9% 21.9–26.0% 21.4–26.6% 20.9–27.1% 20.0–28.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 21.8% 20.0–23.9% 19.4–24.5% 19.0–25.0% 18.1–26.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 12.8% 11.4–14.5% 10.9–15.0% 10.6–15.5% 9.9–16.3%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 5.3% 4.4–6.5% 4.1–6.9% 3.9–7.2% 3.5–7.8%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 3.0% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 2.0–4.5% 1.7–5.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 2.9% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.1% 1.9–4.3% 1.6–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 30 34 31–37 30–38 30–38 28–40
Eesti Keskerakond 27 27 24–29 23–30 23–31 21–32
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 24 21–27 21–27 20–28 19–29
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 13 11–15 11–16 10–16 10–17
Erakond Isamaa 14 5 0–6 0–6 0–7 0–7
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.3%  
30 4% 98% Last Result
31 9% 94%  
32 12% 85%  
33 18% 73%  
34 16% 55% Median
35 15% 38%  
36 10% 23%  
37 7% 13%  
38 3% 5%  
39 1.4% 2%  
40 0.5% 0.7%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.9%  
22 1.3% 99.5%  
23 5% 98%  
24 11% 94%  
25 12% 83%  
26 19% 70%  
27 21% 52% Last Result, Median
28 13% 31%  
29 10% 18%  
30 6% 9%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.7% 1.0%  
33 0.3% 0.3%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.7% 99.9%  
20 3% 99.2%  
21 6% 96%  
22 12% 90%  
23 18% 78%  
24 22% 60% Median
25 16% 38%  
26 11% 22%  
27 7% 11%  
28 3% 4%  
29 1.0% 1.5%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 3% 99.6%  
11 11% 97%  
12 20% 86%  
13 27% 66% Median
14 22% 39%  
15 10% 17% Last Result
16 5% 6%  
17 1.4% 2%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 34% 100%  
1 0% 66%  
2 0% 66%  
3 0% 66%  
4 12% 66%  
5 38% 54% Median
6 14% 17%  
7 2% 3%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Median
1 0% 0.5%  
2 0% 0.5%  
3 0% 0.5%  
4 0.3% 0.5%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0% 0.3%  
4 0.2% 0.3%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 84 100% 81–88 81–89 80–89 79–90
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 61 100% 58–64 57–65 56–66 55–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 57 60 100% 57–64 56–65 55–66 54–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 58 99.9% 55–61 54–62 53–63 51–65
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 51 51% 47–54 46–55 46–56 44–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 50 49% 47–54 46–55 45–55 44–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 50 48% 47–54 46–55 45–55 44–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 47 8% 44–50 43–51 42–52 41–53
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 43 0.1% 40–46 39–47 38–48 36–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 40 0% 37–43 36–44 35–44 34–46
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 37 0% 34–40 33–41 33–42 31–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 37 0% 34–41 33–41 32–42 30–43

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.3% 99.9%  
79 1.1% 99.6%  
80 3% 98.5%  
81 6% 96%  
82 14% 89%  
83 17% 75%  
84 15% 58%  
85 11% 44% Median
86 7% 33%  
87 8% 25%  
88 10% 17%  
89 5% 7%  
90 2% 2%  
91 0.5% 0.5%  
92 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result, Majority
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.7% 99.7%  
56 2% 99.1%  
57 4% 97%  
58 7% 94%  
59 9% 87%  
60 15% 78%  
61 17% 63%  
62 14% 45%  
63 12% 31% Median
64 10% 19%  
65 5% 9%  
66 3% 4%  
67 0.7% 1.0%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.5% 99.7%  
55 2% 99.2%  
56 4% 97%  
57 6% 94% Last Result
58 12% 87%  
59 12% 75%  
60 16% 63%  
61 13% 47% Median
62 12% 34%  
63 8% 22%  
64 8% 14%  
65 3% 6%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.8% 1.1%  
68 0.3% 0.3%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.4% 99.9% Majority
52 1.2% 99.5%  
53 3% 98%  
54 6% 96%  
55 9% 90%  
56 12% 81%  
57 15% 69%  
58 14% 54% Median
59 12% 40%  
60 12% 28%  
61 8% 16%  
62 4% 8%  
63 2% 4%  
64 1.0% 2%  
65 0.5% 0.7%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.8%  
45 1.3% 99.4%  
46 3% 98%  
47 6% 95%  
48 9% 89%  
49 12% 80%  
50 16% 67%  
51 16% 51% Median, Majority
52 12% 35%  
53 9% 22%  
54 6% 13%  
55 4% 7%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.7% 1.1%  
58 0.2% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.7% 99.6%  
45 2% 98.9%  
46 4% 97%  
47 7% 93%  
48 9% 87%  
49 13% 78%  
50 16% 65%  
51 16% 49% Majority
52 12% 33% Median
53 9% 20%  
54 6% 11%  
55 3% 5%  
56 1.3% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.6%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.8% 99.6%  
45 2% 98.9%  
46 4% 97%  
47 7% 93%  
48 9% 87%  
49 13% 77%  
50 16% 65%  
51 16% 48% Majority
52 12% 32% Median
53 9% 20%  
54 6% 11%  
55 3% 5%  
56 1.3% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.8% 99.7%  
42 2% 98.9%  
43 4% 97%  
44 8% 92%  
45 13% 85% Last Result
46 17% 72%  
47 14% 55% Median
48 14% 41%  
49 10% 27%  
50 9% 17%  
51 5% 8% Majority
52 2% 4%  
53 0.9% 1.4%  
54 0.3% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.5% 99.8%  
37 1.1% 99.3%  
38 2% 98%  
39 4% 96%  
40 8% 92%  
41 12% 84%  
42 12% 72%  
43 14% 59%  
44 15% 45%  
45 12% 30% Median
46 9% 18%  
47 6% 10%  
48 2% 4%  
49 1.1% 2%  
50 0.4% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.7% 99.7%  
35 3% 99.0%  
36 6% 96%  
37 10% 91%  
38 12% 81%  
39 14% 69%  
40 18% 54% Median
41 15% 37%  
42 9% 22% Last Result
43 7% 13%  
44 4% 6%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0.6% 0.9%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 1.3% 99.5%  
33 4% 98%  
34 7% 95%  
35 11% 87%  
36 15% 76%  
37 20% 61% Median
38 15% 42%  
39 11% 27%  
40 8% 16%  
41 4% 8%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.8% 1.2%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 1.0% 99.4%  
32 2% 98%  
33 4% 96%  
34 7% 92%  
35 11% 85%  
36 12% 74%  
37 14% 62%  
38 16% 48%  
39 11% 32% Median
40 10% 21%  
41 6% 11%  
42 3% 5%  
43 1.2% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations