Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 15–22 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 29.8% 27.7–32.0% 27.1–32.6% 26.6–33.2% 25.7–34.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 23.8% 21.8–25.8% 21.3–26.4% 20.8–26.9% 20.0–28.0%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 21.2% 19.4–23.2% 18.9–23.8% 18.4–24.3% 17.6–25.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 12.8% 11.3–14.4% 10.9–14.9% 10.5–15.3% 9.9–16.2%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 5.2% 4.3–6.4% 4.1–6.8% 3.9–7.1% 3.5–7.7%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 4.7% 3.8–5.9% 3.6–6.2% 3.4–6.5% 3.0–7.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 2.0% 1.5–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.2–3.3% 1.0–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 30 34 31–37 30–38 29–38 28–40
Eesti Keskerakond 27 26 24–29 23–30 22–30 21–32
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 23 21–26 20–26 19–27 18–28
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 13 11–15 11–16 10–16 10–17
Erakond Isamaa 14 4 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.8%  
29 3% 99.2%  
30 4% 96% Last Result
31 11% 93%  
32 12% 81%  
33 19% 69%  
34 17% 51% Median
35 10% 34%  
36 13% 24%  
37 5% 11%  
38 4% 6%  
39 1.1% 2%  
40 0.4% 0.6%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.7% 99.8%  
22 2% 99.1%  
23 6% 97%  
24 12% 91%  
25 18% 79%  
26 18% 60% Median
27 20% 42% Last Result
28 12% 23%  
29 6% 11%  
30 3% 5%  
31 1.3% 2%  
32 0.5% 0.6%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.5% 99.9%  
19 2% 99.4%  
20 6% 97%  
21 11% 91%  
22 20% 80%  
23 18% 59% Median
24 18% 41%  
25 12% 24%  
26 7% 11%  
27 3% 5%  
28 1.3% 2%  
29 0.4% 0.5%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.5% 100%  
10 3% 99.5%  
11 11% 97%  
12 22% 86%  
13 26% 63% Median
14 20% 37%  
15 11% 17% Last Result
16 4% 6%  
17 1.3% 2%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100%  
1 0% 64%  
2 0% 64%  
3 0% 64%  
4 16% 64% Median
5 34% 48%  
6 11% 14%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 59% 100% Median
1 0% 41%  
2 0% 41%  
3 0% 41%  
4 16% 41%  
5 22% 25%  
6 2% 3%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 83 100% 79–87 78–88 77–89 76–90
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 57 60 100% 56–63 55–64 55–65 53–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 60 100% 56–63 56–64 55–65 53–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 57 98.8% 53–60 52–62 52–63 50–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 52 71% 49–55 47–56 46–57 45–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 50 41% 47–53 45–55 44–56 43–57
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 49 29% 46–52 45–54 44–55 43–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 46 11% 43–51 42–51 42–52 40–53
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 42 0.1% 39–46 37–47 37–48 35–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 39 0% 36–42 35–43 34–44 33–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 37 0% 33–40 33–41 31–42 30–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 36 0% 33–39 32–40 31–41 30–42

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.8% 99.8%  
77 2% 99.0%  
78 4% 97%  
79 8% 94%  
80 8% 86%  
81 11% 77%  
82 13% 66%  
83 15% 54% Median
84 10% 38%  
85 9% 28%  
86 6% 20%  
87 6% 14%  
88 4% 7%  
89 2% 3%  
90 1.0% 1.2%  
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Majority
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.5% 99.9%  
54 1.3% 99.4%  
55 3% 98%  
56 6% 95%  
57 10% 89% Last Result
58 11% 79%  
59 18% 68%  
60 12% 51% Median
61 13% 38%  
62 9% 25%  
63 7% 16%  
64 5% 9%  
65 3% 4%  
66 0.8% 2%  
67 0.5% 0.8%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Last Result, Majority
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.7%  
54 1.3% 99.3%  
55 3% 98%  
56 6% 95%  
57 8% 89%  
58 10% 81%  
59 15% 71%  
60 15% 55%  
61 11% 41% Median
62 13% 30%  
63 7% 17%  
64 6% 10%  
65 2% 4%  
66 1.2% 2%  
67 0.3% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.9% 99.7%  
51 1.3% 98.8% Majority
52 4% 98%  
53 7% 94%  
54 9% 87%  
55 12% 78%  
56 14% 65%  
57 13% 52% Median
58 11% 39%  
59 11% 28%  
60 7% 17%  
61 4% 10%  
62 3% 5%  
63 1.5% 3%  
64 0.7% 1.0%  
65 0.3% 0.3%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 1.0% 99.6%  
46 2% 98.6%  
47 3% 97%  
48 4% 94%  
49 8% 90%  
50 12% 83%  
51 17% 71% Median, Majority
52 14% 53%  
53 12% 40%  
54 12% 27%  
55 6% 15%  
56 5% 8%  
57 2% 4%  
58 0.9% 1.4%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.4% 99.9%  
43 1.4% 99.5%  
44 2% 98%  
45 2% 96%  
46 3% 94%  
47 6% 90%  
48 12% 84%  
49 15% 73%  
50 16% 57%  
51 16% 41% Median, Majority
52 10% 24%  
53 5% 15%  
54 4% 10%  
55 3% 6%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.4% 0.6%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.9% 99.6%  
44 2% 98.6%  
45 5% 96%  
46 6% 92%  
47 12% 85%  
48 12% 73%  
49 14% 60% Median
50 17% 47%  
51 12% 29% Majority
52 8% 17%  
53 4% 10%  
54 3% 6%  
55 2% 3%  
56 1.0% 1.4%  
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.8%  
41 1.1% 99.3%  
42 3% 98%  
43 6% 95%  
44 10% 88%  
45 14% 79% Last Result
46 17% 65%  
47 10% 48% Median
48 12% 38%  
49 8% 26%  
50 7% 18%  
51 7% 11% Majority
52 3% 4%  
53 0.5% 1.0%  
54 0.3% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.3% 99.7%  
36 1.4% 99.4%  
37 3% 98%  
38 4% 95%  
39 7% 91%  
40 7% 84%  
41 15% 77%  
42 14% 62%  
43 13% 47% Median
44 13% 35%  
45 9% 22%  
46 6% 14%  
47 4% 7%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.6% 0.9%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.8% 99.8%  
34 2% 99.0%  
35 4% 97%  
36 6% 94%  
37 15% 88%  
38 13% 72%  
39 17% 60% Median
40 13% 43%  
41 12% 30%  
42 10% 18% Last Result
43 4% 8%  
44 3% 5%  
45 1.0% 2%  
46 0.5% 0.7%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.5% 99.7%  
31 2% 99.2%  
32 2% 97%  
33 6% 95%  
34 11% 90%  
35 7% 79%  
36 19% 72%  
37 8% 53%  
38 22% 45% Median
39 6% 23%  
40 8% 17%  
41 6% 9%  
42 0.7% 3%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.6% 99.8%  
31 2% 99.2%  
32 5% 97%  
33 7% 93%  
34 11% 86%  
35 14% 74%  
36 14% 60% Median
37 18% 46%  
38 10% 28%  
39 11% 18%  
40 3% 7%  
41 3% 4%  
42 1.0% 1.5%  
43 0.4% 0.5%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations