Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR, 8–26 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.3–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 25.0% 23.3–26.8% 22.8–27.3% 22.4–27.8% 21.6–28.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 27 31 29–34 28–34 27–35 26–36
Eesti Reformierakond 30 29 26–30 25–31 25–32 24–34
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 21 19–23 18–24 18–24 17–25
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 11 10–13 9–13 9–14 8–15
Erakond Isamaa 14 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.8% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.1% Last Result
28 6% 97%  
29 13% 90%  
30 16% 78%  
31 20% 62% Median
32 19% 41%  
33 12% 22%  
34 6% 10%  
35 3% 4%  
36 0.8% 1.1%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 2% 99.7%  
25 4% 98%  
26 5% 94%  
27 10% 88%  
28 22% 79%  
29 32% 57% Median
30 16% 25% Last Result
31 5% 9%  
32 2% 4%  
33 1.1% 2%  
34 0.6% 0.7%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 100%  
17 1.1% 99.8%  
18 5% 98.7%  
19 14% 93%  
20 22% 79%  
21 27% 58% Median
22 18% 31%  
23 8% 13%  
24 3% 5%  
25 1.3% 2%  
26 0.3% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.9% 100%  
9 6% 99.1%  
10 22% 93%  
11 33% 71% Median
12 23% 38%  
13 10% 14%  
14 3% 4%  
15 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 49% 100%  
1 0% 51%  
2 0% 51%  
3 0% 51%  
4 13% 51% Median
5 32% 38%  
6 6% 6%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0% 7%  
4 4% 7%  
5 3% 4%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 80 100% 77–84 76–84 75–85 74–86
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 57 60 100% 56–62 56–63 55–64 53–65
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 52 74% 49–55 48–56 47–56 46–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 52 71% 49–55 48–56 47–56 46–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 49 31% 46–52 46–53 45–54 43–55
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 45 0.5% 42–48 41–49 40–49 39–51
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 42 0% 39–45 39–46 38–47 37–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 42 0% 39–46 38–46 38–47 36–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 42 0% 39–46 38–46 38–47 36–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 40 0% 37–42 36–43 35–44 34–45
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 32 0% 29–34 29–35 28–36 27–37
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 31 0% 28–34 27–35 26–35 25–37

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 0.6% 99.6%  
75 2% 99.0%  
76 4% 97%  
77 8% 93%  
78 11% 85%  
79 13% 74%  
80 13% 61%  
81 11% 48% Median
82 11% 37%  
83 13% 26%  
84 8% 13%  
85 3% 5%  
86 1.2% 1.3%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.2% 100%  
53 0.5% 99.8%  
54 1.2% 99.3%  
55 3% 98%  
56 6% 95%  
57 8% 90% Last Result
58 14% 81%  
59 14% 67%  
60 16% 53% Median
61 16% 37%  
62 12% 21%  
63 6% 10%  
64 3% 4%  
65 1.0% 1.4%  
66 0.3% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.6% 99.8%  
47 2% 99.2%  
48 5% 97%  
49 9% 92%  
50 9% 83%  
51 20% 74% Majority
52 13% 54% Median
53 16% 41%  
54 13% 25%  
55 6% 11%  
56 4% 6%  
57 1.4% 2%  
58 0.3% 0.6%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.9% 99.6%  
47 2% 98.8%  
48 5% 97%  
49 9% 92%  
50 12% 83%  
51 14% 71% Last Result, Majority
52 17% 56%  
53 15% 39%  
54 11% 24% Median
55 8% 13%  
56 3% 5%  
57 2% 2%  
58 0.4% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.4% 99.9%  
44 1.0% 99.5%  
45 3% 98%  
46 6% 95%  
47 11% 89%  
48 12% 78%  
49 19% 66%  
50 16% 47% Median
51 13% 31% Majority
52 10% 18%  
53 5% 8%  
54 2% 4%  
55 1.0% 1.4%  
56 0.3% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 1.1% 99.6%  
40 3% 98.5%  
41 5% 96%  
42 9% 91%  
43 12% 82%  
44 16% 69%  
45 16% 53%  
46 14% 38% Median
47 11% 24%  
48 7% 12%  
49 3% 5%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.5% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 1.1% 99.6%  
38 3% 98.5%  
39 6% 96%  
40 11% 89%  
41 16% 78%  
42 18% 62% Last Result, Median
43 17% 45%  
44 13% 28%  
45 9% 16%  
46 5% 7%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.6% 0.8%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.3% 100%  
36 0.5% 99.7%  
37 1.0% 99.2%  
38 4% 98%  
39 6% 94%  
40 12% 88%  
41 20% 77%  
42 9% 57%  
43 17% 47%  
44 13% 30% Median
45 7% 17%  
46 7% 10%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.6% 0.8%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.3% 100%  
36 0.5% 99.7%  
37 1.0% 99.2%  
38 4% 98%  
39 6% 94%  
40 12% 88%  
41 20% 77%  
42 9% 57%  
43 17% 47%  
44 13% 30% Median
45 7% 17%  
46 7% 10%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.6% 0.8%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.6% 99.8%  
35 2% 99.2%  
36 4% 97%  
37 5% 93%  
38 13% 88%  
39 17% 74%  
40 20% 57% Median
41 23% 37%  
42 6% 15%  
43 6% 9%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.5% 1.0% Last Result
46 0.4% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.6% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.3%  
29 7% 97%  
30 12% 90%  
31 17% 78%  
32 20% 61% Median
33 19% 40%  
34 12% 21%  
35 6% 9%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.8% 1.3%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.8% 99.7%  
26 1.4% 98.9%  
27 3% 97%  
28 7% 94%  
29 19% 87%  
30 15% 68%  
31 9% 53%  
32 10% 44%  
33 16% 33% Median
34 11% 18%  
35 5% 7%  
36 1.4% 2%  
37 0.5% 0.7%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations