Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR, 4–17 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 28.0% 26.2–29.9% 25.7–30.4% 25.3–30.9% 24.5–31.8%
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.3–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 17.0% 15.5–18.6% 15.2–19.1% 14.8–19.5% 14.1–20.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.0%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 27 32 30–35 29–35 29–36 28–37
Eesti Reformierakond 30 31 29–33 28–34 27–35 26–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 18 16–20 16–21 16–21 15–22
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 15 13–16 13–17 12–17 11–18
Erakond Isamaa 14 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
28 2% 99.6%  
29 6% 98%  
30 12% 92%  
31 18% 80%  
32 22% 62% Median
33 18% 40%  
34 12% 22%  
35 7% 10%  
36 2% 4%  
37 0.8% 1.2%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.4%  
28 6% 97%  
29 16% 91%  
30 22% 75% Last Result
31 18% 52% Median
32 16% 34%  
33 11% 18%  
34 4% 7%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.7% 0.8%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.3% 100%  
15 2% 99.7%  
16 10% 98%  
17 20% 88%  
18 23% 67% Median
19 22% 45%  
20 15% 22%  
21 5% 7%  
22 1.3% 2%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.6% 100%  
12 4% 99.4%  
13 13% 95%  
14 31% 82%  
15 25% 51% Last Result, Median
16 17% 26%  
17 7% 9%  
18 1.4% 2%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 81 100% 79–83 78–85 78–86 77–88
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 57 63 100% 60–66 60–66 59–67 58–69
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 50 48% 48–53 47–54 46–55 45–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 49 23% 46–52 46–53 45–53 44–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 49 23% 46–52 46–53 45–53 44–55
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 47 4% 44–49 44–50 43–51 42–52
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 47 4% 44–49 44–50 43–51 42–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 45 1.0% 43–48 42–49 42–49 41–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 45 1.0% 43–48 42–49 42–49 41–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 45 1.0% 43–48 42–49 42–49 41–51
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 33 0% 31–35 30–36 29–37 28–38
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 31 0% 29–33 28–34 27–35 26–36

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0.2% 100%  
77 1.2% 99.7%  
78 5% 98.5%  
79 11% 94%  
80 20% 82%  
81 26% 63% Median
82 19% 37%  
83 9% 18%  
84 4% 10%  
85 2% 6%  
86 2% 3%  
87 1.0% 2%  
88 0.6% 0.7%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.2% 100% Last Result
58 1.0% 99.8%  
59 3% 98.8%  
60 8% 96%  
61 14% 88%  
62 20% 74%  
63 18% 54% Median
64 16% 36%  
65 10% 21%  
66 6% 11%  
67 2% 4%  
68 1.4% 2%  
69 0.6% 0.9%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.5% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.4%  
47 5% 97%  
48 10% 92%  
49 15% 81%  
50 18% 66% Median
51 20% 48% Majority
52 15% 29%  
53 7% 14%  
54 4% 7%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.6% 1.0%  
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.7% 99.8%  
45 2% 99.1%  
46 7% 97%  
47 13% 90%  
48 17% 77%  
49 21% 60% Median
50 16% 39%  
51 10% 23% Majority
52 7% 12%  
53 3% 5%  
54 1.0% 2%  
55 0.6% 0.9%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.7% 99.8%  
45 2% 99.1%  
46 7% 97%  
47 13% 90%  
48 17% 77%  
49 21% 60% Median
50 16% 39%  
51 11% 23% Last Result, Majority
52 7% 12%  
53 3% 5%  
54 1.0% 2%  
55 0.6% 0.9%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 1.3% 99.6%  
43 3% 98%  
44 8% 95%  
45 13% 87%  
46 20% 74%  
47 20% 54% Median
48 15% 34%  
49 10% 19%  
50 5% 8%  
51 2% 4% Majority
52 1.0% 1.4%  
53 0.3% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 1.3% 99.6% Last Result
43 3% 98%  
44 8% 95%  
45 13% 87%  
46 20% 74%  
47 20% 54% Median
48 15% 34%  
49 10% 19%  
50 5% 8%  
51 2% 4% Majority
52 1.0% 1.4%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 1.5% 99.5%  
42 4% 98%  
43 10% 94%  
44 21% 83%  
45 15% 62%  
46 18% 47% Median
47 13% 30%  
48 10% 17%  
49 5% 7%  
50 1.4% 2%  
51 0.6% 1.0% Majority
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 1.5% 99.5%  
42 4% 98%  
43 10% 94%  
44 21% 83%  
45 15% 62%  
46 18% 47% Median
47 13% 30%  
48 10% 17%  
49 5% 7%  
50 1.4% 2%  
51 0.6% 1.0% Majority
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 1.5% 99.5%  
42 4% 98%  
43 10% 94%  
44 21% 83%  
45 15% 62% Last Result
46 18% 47% Median
47 13% 29%  
48 10% 17%  
49 5% 7%  
50 1.4% 2%  
51 0.6% 1.0% Majority
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.5% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.4%  
30 6% 97%  
31 14% 90%  
32 17% 76%  
33 22% 60% Median
34 18% 38%  
35 11% 19%  
36 5% 8%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.6% 0.9%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.4%  
28 6% 97%  
29 16% 91%  
30 22% 75%  
31 18% 52% Median
32 17% 34%  
33 11% 18%  
34 4% 7%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.7% 0.9%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations