Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR, 2–15 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 24.8% 30.0% 28.2–31.9% 27.7–32.4% 27.2–32.9% 26.4–33.9%
Eesti Reformierakond 27.7% 28.0% 26.2–29.9% 25.7–30.4% 25.3–30.9% 24.5–31.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 8.1% 17.0% 15.5–18.6% 15.2–19.1% 14.8–19.5% 14.1–20.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15.2% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
Erakond Isamaa 13.7% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Eesti Vabaerakond 8.7% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0.9% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 27 35 32–38 32–38 31–39 30–40
Eesti Reformierakond 30 32 30–35 29–36 29–36 27–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 7 18 17–20 16–21 16–22 15–23
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 15 12 11–14 10–14 10–15 9–16
Erakond Isamaa 14 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Eesti Vabaerakond 8 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100% Last Result
28 0% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.9% 99.7%  
31 3% 98.8%  
32 9% 96%  
33 10% 87%  
34 16% 77%  
35 23% 60% Median
36 17% 37%  
37 10% 21%  
38 6% 11%  
39 3% 5%  
40 1.1% 2%  
41 0.3% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.4% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.5%  
29 5% 98%  
30 11% 93% Last Result
31 15% 82%  
32 19% 67% Median
33 19% 47%  
34 15% 28%  
35 8% 13%  
36 4% 6%  
37 1.4% 2%  
38 0.4% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.3% 100%  
15 2% 99.7%  
16 7% 98%  
17 19% 90%  
18 26% 71% Median
19 20% 45%  
20 18% 25%  
21 4% 8%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.5% 0.6%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.7% 100%  
10 5% 99.3%  
11 18% 94%  
12 30% 76% Median
13 28% 45%  
14 13% 17%  
15 4% 5% Last Result
16 0.8% 0.9%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100%  
1 0% 54%  
2 0% 54%  
3 0% 54%  
4 15% 54% Median
5 31% 38%  
6 6% 7%  
7 0.5% 0.5%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 64 85 100% 82–89 82–90 81–90 79–91
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 57 67 100% 64–71 63–71 62–72 61–73
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 34 53 88% 50–57 50–57 49–58 47–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 51 53 88% 50–57 49–57 49–58 47–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 37 51 51% 48–54 47–55 46–55 45–57
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 50 44% 47–53 46–54 45–54 44–56
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 42 47 10% 44–50 44–51 43–52 42–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 67 47 10% 44–50 43–51 42–52 41–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 59 47 10% 44–50 43–51 42–52 41–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 45 45 0.5% 42–48 41–48 40–49 39–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 44 35 0% 32–38 31–39 30–40 29–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 22 31 0% 28–33 28–34 27–35 26–36

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100% Last Result
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.7% 99.7%  
80 1.3% 99.0%  
81 3% 98%  
82 5% 95%  
83 11% 90%  
84 16% 79%  
85 14% 62% Median
86 8% 49%  
87 9% 41%  
88 14% 32%  
89 12% 18%  
90 5% 7%  
91 1.3% 1.4%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.6% 99.7%  
62 2% 99.1%  
63 3% 97%  
64 7% 94%  
65 11% 87%  
66 14% 76%  
67 14% 62% Median
68 15% 48%  
69 13% 32%  
70 9% 19%  
71 6% 10%  
72 3% 4%  
73 0.9% 1.2%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.5% 99.9%  
48 1.2% 99.4%  
49 3% 98%  
50 7% 95%  
51 11% 88% Majority
52 15% 77%  
53 15% 63% Median
54 16% 47%  
55 13% 32%  
56 8% 18%  
57 6% 10%  
58 2% 4%  
59 1.3% 2%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.7% 99.8%  
48 1.2% 99.1%  
49 4% 98%  
50 7% 94%  
51 7% 88% Last Result, Majority
52 14% 80%  
53 18% 66%  
54 16% 48% Median
55 16% 32%  
56 6% 16%  
57 7% 10%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.5% 0.7%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 0.6% 99.7%  
46 2% 99.0%  
47 6% 97%  
48 8% 91%  
49 15% 83%  
50 18% 69% Median
51 11% 51% Majority
52 13% 40%  
53 16% 26%  
54 5% 11%  
55 4% 6%  
56 2% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 0.7% 99.6%  
45 2% 98.9%  
46 5% 97%  
47 5% 92%  
48 17% 86%  
49 14% 69%  
50 11% 55%  
51 17% 44% Median, Majority
52 14% 27%  
53 6% 13%  
54 5% 7%  
55 1.5% 2%  
56 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 1.0% 99.6% Last Result
43 3% 98.6%  
44 9% 96%  
45 7% 87%  
46 17% 80%  
47 16% 63% Median
48 18% 47%  
49 13% 29%  
50 6% 16%  
51 6% 10% Majority
52 3% 4%  
53 0.6% 0.9%  
54 0.3% 0.3%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.7%  
42 2% 99.3%  
43 3% 97%  
44 7% 94%  
45 9% 87%  
46 14% 78%  
47 16% 64%  
48 15% 48% Median
49 14% 33%  
50 9% 19%  
51 6% 10% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 0.8% 1.1%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.7%  
42 2% 99.3%  
43 3% 97%  
44 7% 94%  
45 9% 87%  
46 14% 78%  
47 16% 64%  
48 15% 48% Median
49 14% 33%  
50 9% 19%  
51 6% 10% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 0.8% 1.1%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.8%  
40 2% 99.3%  
41 4% 97%  
42 9% 93%  
43 14% 84%  
44 15% 70% Median
45 18% 54% Last Result
46 15% 37%  
47 10% 21%  
48 6% 11%  
49 3% 5%  
50 1.1% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.5% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.8% 99.7%  
30 2% 98.9%  
31 6% 97%  
32 7% 91%  
33 12% 83%  
34 14% 71%  
35 14% 57%  
36 12% 42% Median
37 15% 30%  
38 7% 15%  
39 5% 8%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.6% 0.8%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.8% 99.8%  
27 3% 99.0%  
28 7% 96%  
29 17% 89%  
30 17% 73% Median
31 21% 56%  
32 17% 35%  
33 10% 18%  
34 5% 8%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.7% 0.9%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations