Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 1–9 December 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 23.9% 25.6% 23.9–27.4% 23.4–28.0% 23.0–28.4% 22.2–29.3%
Vlaams Belang 22.7% 23.9% 22.2–25.7% 21.8–26.2% 21.4–26.6% 20.6–27.5%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 13.0% 13.9% 12.6–15.4% 12.2–15.8% 11.9–16.2% 11.3–16.9%
Vooruit 13.8% 11.4% 10.2–12.8% 9.9–13.2% 9.6–13.5% 9.0–14.2%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 8.3% 10.2% 9.1–11.5% 8.7–11.9% 8.5–12.2% 8.0–12.9%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 8.3% 7.1% 6.2–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.2–9.4%
Groen 7.3% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Team Fouad Ahidar 0.3% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 31 34 31–37 30–38 30–39 29–39
Vlaams Belang 31 31 29–34 28–35 27–36 26–36
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 16 17 15–19 15–19 14–20 13–21
Vooruit 18 13 11–16 11–17 11–17 10–18
Partij van de Arbeid van België 9 12 10–14 10–14 10–15 7–17
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 9 6 5–10 5–11 4–11 2–12
Groen 9 9 6–11 5–11 5–12 4–12
Team Fouad Ahidar 1 1 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–4

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 1.2% 99.7%  
30 5% 98%  
31 10% 94% Last Result
32 14% 84%  
33 17% 70%  
34 16% 53% Median
35 11% 37%  
36 14% 26%  
37 5% 12%  
38 4% 7%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.3% 0.4%  
41 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.3% 100%  
26 0.9% 99.7%  
27 2% 98.8%  
28 4% 97%  
29 7% 93%  
30 28% 86%  
31 14% 58% Last Result, Median
32 19% 44%  
33 7% 25%  
34 9% 18%  
35 6% 9%  
36 3% 3%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.4% 99.9%  
13 1.3% 99.5%  
14 3% 98%  
15 6% 95%  
16 37% 89% Last Result
17 21% 53% Median
18 12% 31%  
19 16% 20%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.9% 1.3%  
22 0.3% 0.5%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 2% 100%  
11 26% 98%  
12 11% 72%  
13 13% 61% Median
14 23% 48%  
15 8% 25%  
16 8% 17%  
17 8% 9%  
18 1.1% 1.2% Last Result
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.5% 100%  
8 0.3% 99.5%  
9 1.0% 99.1% Last Result
10 20% 98%  
11 18% 78%  
12 17% 60% Median
13 13% 43%  
14 25% 30%  
15 2% 5%  
16 1.4% 2%  
17 0.9% 0.9%  
18 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.7% 100%  
3 1.4% 99.3%  
4 0.7% 98%  
5 19% 97%  
6 31% 78% Median
7 14% 47%  
8 12% 32%  
9 8% 21% Last Result
10 7% 13%  
11 4% 6%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 0.6% 99.8%  
5 6% 99.2%  
6 9% 93%  
7 13% 84%  
8 17% 71%  
9 32% 54% Last Result, Median
10 11% 22%  
11 8% 10%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  

Team Fouad Ahidar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Team Fouad Ahidar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100%  
1 41% 75% Last Result, Median
2 26% 34%  
3 7% 8%  
4 0.9% 1.0%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vlaams Belang – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 78 82 100% 79–85 78–86 77–87 76–89
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 74 71 100% 68–75 67–75 66–76 64–78
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vlaams Belang 62 65 83% 62–68 61–70 60–70 59–72
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit 65 64 72% 61–67 60–69 59–69 58–71
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 56 57 4% 54–61 53–62 52–63 51–65
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 58 54 0.2% 50–58 49–59 49–60 47–62
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen 52 51 0% 47–55 46–55 45–56 44–57
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 47 51 0% 48–54 47–55 46–55 45–57
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen 52 46 0% 42–49 41–50 40–51 38–53
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 40 40 0% 37–45 36–46 36–46 34–48
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Groen 43 39 0% 35–42 34–43 33–44 32–45
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 43 37 0% 34–41 33–42 32–43 31–44
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen 34 32 0% 29–36 28–37 27–38 25–39
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit 34 30 0% 27–33 27–34 26–35 25–36
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen 36 29 0% 25–32 24–33 23–34 22–36
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 25 23 0% 21–27 21–28 20–29 18–30
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 27 20 0% 17–24 17–24 16–25 15–27

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vlaams Belang – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.9%  
76 2% 99.5%  
77 3% 98%  
78 4% 95% Last Result
79 10% 91%  
80 8% 81%  
81 12% 73%  
82 19% 62% Median
83 14% 43%  
84 11% 29%  
85 9% 18%  
86 5% 9%  
87 2% 4%  
88 2% 2%  
89 0.4% 0.6%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.2% 100% Majority
64 0.6% 99.8%  
65 0.8% 99.2%  
66 3% 98%  
67 5% 96%  
68 11% 91%  
69 9% 80%  
70 11% 71% Median
71 14% 59%  
72 18% 45%  
73 11% 27%  
74 5% 16% Last Result
75 6% 11%  
76 3% 5%  
77 1.2% 2%  
78 0.7% 0.9%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vlaams Belang

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.8%  
59 1.0% 99.6%  
60 3% 98.6%  
61 3% 96%  
62 9% 93% Last Result
63 12% 83% Majority
64 12% 71%  
65 13% 59% Median
66 15% 46%  
67 11% 30%  
68 10% 20%  
69 4% 10%  
70 4% 6%  
71 1.3% 2%  
72 0.7% 0.9%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 1.1% 99.6%  
59 2% 98%  
60 4% 96%  
61 8% 92%  
62 13% 85%  
63 14% 72% Majority
64 15% 57% Median
65 14% 42% Last Result
66 11% 28%  
67 7% 17%  
68 5% 10%  
69 3% 5%  
70 1.4% 2%  
71 0.5% 0.7%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.5% 99.8%  
52 3% 99.2%  
53 3% 96%  
54 6% 93%  
55 9% 87%  
56 11% 78% Last Result
57 18% 68% Median
58 13% 50%  
59 11% 37%  
60 10% 26%  
61 6% 16%  
62 5% 10%  
63 2% 4% Majority
64 1.5% 2%  
65 0.7% 0.8%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.8%  
48 1.2% 99.4%  
49 4% 98%  
50 5% 94%  
51 9% 90%  
52 9% 80%  
53 12% 71% Median
54 12% 59%  
55 15% 46%  
56 12% 31%  
57 8% 18%  
58 4% 10% Last Result
59 3% 6%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.7% 1.3%  
62 0.5% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.2% Majority
64 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 0.7% 99.6%  
45 4% 98.9%  
46 4% 95%  
47 8% 91%  
48 8% 83%  
49 9% 74%  
50 11% 65%  
51 9% 54% Median
52 13% 45% Last Result
53 11% 32%  
54 10% 21%  
55 7% 11%  
56 3% 4%  
57 0.7% 1.0%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.9% 99.7%  
46 3% 98.8%  
47 6% 96% Last Result
48 10% 90%  
49 10% 80%  
50 16% 70%  
51 16% 54% Median
52 15% 38%  
53 11% 23%  
54 5% 12%  
55 5% 7%  
56 1.4% 2%  
57 0.6% 1.0%  
58 0.3% 0.3%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.9%  
39 1.1% 99.4%  
40 3% 98%  
41 5% 95%  
42 5% 91%  
43 9% 86%  
44 10% 77%  
45 15% 66% Median
46 16% 52%  
47 12% 36%  
48 9% 24%  
49 5% 14%  
50 5% 9%  
51 2% 4%  
52 1.1% 2% Last Result
53 0.6% 0.8%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 0.8% 99.5%  
36 4% 98.7%  
37 5% 95%  
38 11% 89%  
39 14% 78%  
40 15% 65% Last Result, Median
41 13% 50%  
42 12% 37%  
43 7% 25%  
44 7% 18%  
45 4% 11%  
46 5% 7%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.8% 99.7%  
33 2% 99.0%  
34 5% 97%  
35 10% 93%  
36 8% 83%  
37 9% 75%  
38 11% 66%  
39 13% 55% Median
40 15% 41%  
41 13% 26%  
42 7% 14%  
43 3% 6% Last Result
44 2% 3%  
45 1.0% 1.3%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.5% 99.7%  
32 3% 99.2%  
33 5% 96%  
34 6% 91%  
35 13% 86%  
36 15% 73% Median
37 13% 57%  
38 13% 44%  
39 13% 31%  
40 7% 18%  
41 4% 11%  
42 4% 7%  
43 2% 3% Last Result
44 0.8% 1.2%  
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 0.7% 99.5%  
27 3% 98.8%  
28 4% 96%  
29 7% 92%  
30 11% 85%  
31 11% 74%  
32 19% 62% Median
33 11% 43%  
34 13% 32% Last Result
35 7% 19%  
36 6% 12%  
37 3% 5%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.8% 1.1%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.8% 99.7%  
26 3% 98.9%  
27 12% 96%  
28 8% 84%  
29 14% 77%  
30 19% 63% Median
31 15% 44%  
32 12% 29%  
33 8% 17%  
34 4% 9% Last Result
35 2% 4%  
36 1.4% 2%  
37 0.4% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 0.8% 99.8%  
23 2% 99.0%  
24 5% 97%  
25 5% 92%  
26 9% 87%  
27 12% 78%  
28 14% 66% Median
29 13% 51%  
30 13% 38%  
31 9% 25%  
32 8% 16%  
33 4% 8%  
34 3% 4%  
35 0.6% 1.3%  
36 0.4% 0.7% Last Result
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.7% 99.9%  
19 1.5% 99.2%  
20 2% 98%  
21 10% 96%  
22 15% 86%  
23 21% 71% Median
24 12% 50%  
25 15% 38% Last Result
26 10% 23%  
27 5% 13%  
28 4% 7%  
29 2% 4%  
30 1.0% 1.4%  
31 0.3% 0.4%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.3% 99.9%  
15 0.3% 99.5%  
16 4% 99.2%  
17 12% 96%  
18 9% 83%  
19 16% 74% Median
20 15% 58%  
21 10% 43%  
22 13% 34%  
23 11% 21%  
24 6% 10%  
25 2% 5%  
26 1.2% 2%  
27 0.4% 0.8% Last Result
28 0.3% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations