Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie
Voting Intentions
Last result: 23.9% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 23.4% | 21.8–25.2% | 21.3–25.7% | 20.9–26.1% | 20.1–27.0% |
| 16–23 September 2025 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
23.4% | 21.7–25.2% | 21.3–25.7% | 20.9–26.1% | 20.1–27.0% |
| 27 May–3 June 2025 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
26.3% | 24.6–28.2% | 24.1–28.7% | 23.7–29.1% | 22.8–30.0% |
| 3–24 March 2025 | Bpact and Universiteit Antwerpen & ULB De Standaard, RTBF and VRT |
26.9% | 25.7–28.2% | 25.4–28.5% | 25.1–28.8% | 24.5–29.4% |
| 4–11 March 2025 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
25.5% | 23.8–27.3% | 23.3–27.8% | 22.9–28.3% | 22.1–29.2% |
| 18–21 November 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
24.6% | 22.9–26.4% | 22.4–26.9% | 22.0–27.4% | 21.2–28.3% |
| 11–17 September 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
26.7% | 25.0–28.6% | 24.5–29.1% | 24.1–29.5% | 23.2–30.4% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.5–18.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 6% | 98.7% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 18% | 92% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 28% | 75% | Median |
| 23.5–24.5% | 26% | 47% | Last Result |
| 24.5–25.5% | 14% | 20% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 5% | 6% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 31 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 31 | 29–33 | 28–34 | 28–35 | 25–36 |
| 16–23 September 2025 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
31 | 29–33 | 28–34 | 28–35 | 25–36 |
| 27 May–3 June 2025 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
35 | 31–38 | 31–39 | 31–39 | 30–40 |
| 3–24 March 2025 | Bpact and Universiteit Antwerpen & ULB De Standaard, RTBF and VRT |
36 | 35–38 | 35–39 | 34–39 | 33–41 |
| 4–11 March 2025 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
34 | 31–36 | 31–37 | 30–38 | 28–39 |
| 18–21 November 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
32 | 30–35 | 29–36 | 29–37 | 27–38 |
| 11–17 September 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
36 | 33–39 | 32–39 | 32–40 | 30–42 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 28 | 4% | 98% | |
| 29 | 17% | 94% | |
| 30 | 18% | 77% | |
| 31 | 28% | 59% | Last Result, Median |
| 32 | 16% | 31% | |
| 33 | 7% | 16% | |
| 34 | 4% | 9% | |
| 35 | 3% | 4% | |
| 36 | 2% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |