Vlaams Belang

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 18.5% (General Election of 26 May 2019)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 26.5% 24.8–28.5% 24.3–29.1% 23.9–29.6% 23.0–30.6%
23 April–3 May 2024 iVOX
Overlegcentrum van Vlaamse Verenigingen		 26.3% 24.9–27.7% 24.5–28.2% 24.2–28.5% 23.5–29.2%
8–18 April 2024 Kantar
La Libre Belgique and RTBf		 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
11–18 March 2024 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 27.4% 25.6–29.3% 25.1–29.8% 24.7–30.3% 23.9–31.2%
22 January–8 February 2024 Kantar
Knack and Le Vif		 25.5% 23.9–27.3% 23.4–27.8% 23.0–28.2% 22.2–29.1%
9–22 January 2024 iVOX
Vlaams & Neutraal Ziekenfonds		 26.6% 25.4–27.9% 25.0–28.3% 24.7–28.6% 24.1–29.2%
8–22 January 2024 Kantar and Universiteit Antwerpen
De Standaard and VRT		 27.8% 26.5–29.2% 26.1–29.6% 25.8–29.9% 25.2–30.6%
4–11 December 2023 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 25.1% 23.4–26.9% 22.9–27.4% 22.5–27.9% 21.7–28.8%
23–28 November 2023 iVOX
Gazet van Antwerpen		 26.5% 25.7–29.4% 25.2–29.9% 24.8–30.4% 24.0–31.3%
10 September–9 October 2023 Kantar
La Libre Belgique and RTBf		 23.3% 21.2–25.7% 20.5–26.4% 20.0–27.0% 19.0–28.2%
18–25 September 2023 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 25.8% 24.1–27.6% 23.6–28.2% 23.2–28.6% 22.4–29.5%
29 May–6 June 2023 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 22.7% 21.1–24.5% 20.6–25.0% 20.2–25.4% 19.4–26.3%
20–27 March 2023 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 25.0% 23.3–26.8% 22.8–27.3% 22.4–27.8% 21.6–28.7%
13–23 March 2023 TNS and Universiteit Antwerpen
De Standaard and VRT		 24.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–29 January 2023 Kantar
La Libre Belgique and RTBf		 24.7% 22.4–27.3% 21.7–28.0% 21.2–28.6% 20.1–29.9%
21–29 November 2022 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 25.5% 23.8–27.3% 23.3–27.8% 22.9–28.3% 22.1–29.2%
7–13 September 2022 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 21.6% 20.0–23.4% 19.5–23.8% 19.2–24.3% 18.4–25.1%
6–14 June 2022 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 22.6% 21.0–24.4% 20.5–24.9% 20.1–25.3% 19.4–26.2%
14–31 March 2022 TNS and Universiteit Antwerpen
De Standaard and VRT		 22.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
15–22 March 2022 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 22.2% 20.6–24.0% 20.2–24.5% 19.8–24.9% 19.0–25.8%
1–8 December 2021 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 24.5% 22.8–26.3% 22.3–26.8% 21.9–27.3% 21.1–28.2%
7–14 September 2021 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 23.6% 21.9–25.4% 21.5–25.9% 21.1–26.3% 20.3–27.2%
25 May–1 June 2021 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 26.1% 24.4–28.0% 23.9–28.5% 23.5–29.0% 22.7–29.9%
29 March–19 April 2021 TNS and Universiteit Antwerpen
De Standaard and VRT		 24.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–9 March 2021 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 23.6% 21.9–25.3% 21.4–25.8% 21.0–26.3% 20.3–27.2%
2–8 December 2020 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 26.3% 24.6–28.2% 24.1–28.7% 23.7–29.1% 22.9–30.0%
2–8 October 2020 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 27.1% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.5% 24.4–29.9% 23.6–30.8%
28 August–1 September 2020 Dedicated
Soirmag		 26.9% 24.7–29.3% 24.1–30.0% 23.5–30.6% 22.5–31.8%
10–15 June 2020 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 27.7% 25.8–29.6% 25.3–30.1% 24.9–30.6% 24.1–31.5%
9–28 April 2020 TNS and Universiteit Antwerpen
De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT		 24.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–9 March 2020 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 28.0% 26.2–29.9% 25.7–30.4% 25.2–30.9% 24.4–31.8%
29 November–6 December 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 27.3% 25.6–29.2% 25.1–29.7% 24.6–30.2% 23.8–31.1%
2–10 September 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 24.9% 23.2–26.7% 22.7–27.2% 22.3–27.7% 21.5–28.6%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Vlaams Belang.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18.5–19.5% 0% 100% Last Result
19.5–20.5% 0% 100%  
20.5–21.5% 0% 100%  
21.5–22.5% 0.2% 100%  
22.5–23.5% 1.2% 99.8%  
23.5–24.5% 6% 98.6%  
24.5–25.5% 16% 93%  
25.5–26.5% 27% 77%  
26.5–27.5% 26% 50% Median
27.5–28.5% 15% 24%  
28.5–29.5% 7% 9%  
29.5–30.5% 2% 3%  
30.5–31.5% 0.5% 0.5%  
31.5–32.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
32.5–33.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 23 seats (General Election of 26 May 2019)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 35 32–38 32–38 31–39 30–41
23 April–3 May 2024 iVOX
Overlegcentrum van Vlaamse Verenigingen		 35 32–37 32–37 31–38 31–39
8–18 April 2024 Kantar
La Libre Belgique and RTBf		 35 32–37 31–38 30–38 29–40
11–18 March 2024 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 37 34–39 33–40 32–41 31–42
22 January–8 February 2024 Kantar
Knack and Le Vif		 33 31–36 30–37 29–37 28–38
9–22 January 2024 iVOX
Vlaams & Neutraal Ziekenfonds		 35 33–37 33–38 32–38 31–39
8–22 January 2024 Kantar and Universiteit Antwerpen
De Standaard and VRT		 37 34–37 34–38 33–39 32–41
4–11 December 2023 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 33 30–36 30–37 29–37 28–38
23–28 November 2023 iVOX
Gazet van Antwerpen		 37 34–39 33–40 33–41 31–42
10 September–9 October 2023 Kantar
La Libre Belgique and RTBf		 30 27–34 25–35 25–36 23–37
18–25 September 2023 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 34 32–37 31–38 30–38 29–40
29 May–6 June 2023 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 29 26–32 26–33 25–34 24–35
20–27 March 2023 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 33 30–36 30–36 29–37 27–38
13–23 March 2023 TNS and Universiteit Antwerpen
De Standaard and VRT		          
16–29 January 2023 Kantar
La Libre Belgique and RTBf		 32 29–36 27–37 26–38 25–40
21–29 November 2022 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 34 30–36 29–37 29–37 28–38
7–13 September 2022 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 28 25–30 25–31 24–32 23–34
6–14 June 2022 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 30 26–32 26–33 25–34 24–34
14–31 March 2022 TNS and Universiteit Antwerpen
De Standaard and VRT		          
15–22 March 2022 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 29 26–32 25–32 25–33 24–34
1–8 December 2021 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 33 29–34 28–35 28–36 27–38
7–14 September 2021 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 31 29–34 28–34 27–34 25–36
25 May–1 June 2021 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 34 34–37 31–38 30–39 30–41
29 March–19 April 2021 TNS and Universiteit Antwerpen
De Standaard and VRT		          
4–9 March 2021 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 31 29–34 27–34 26–34 25–36
2–8 December 2020 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 34 32–37 31–38 30–39 30–40
2–8 October 2020 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 36 34–39 34–40 33–41 31–42
28 August–1 September 2020 Dedicated
Soirmag		 35 32–38 31–40 30–41 28–41
10–15 June 2020 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 37 34–39 34–40 33–41 31–42
9–28 April 2020 TNS and Universiteit Antwerpen
De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT		          
4–9 March 2020 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 37 34–40 34–41 33–41 32–42
29 November–6 December 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 36 34–39 33–40 32–40 31–42
2–10 September 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 33 30–34 29–35 28–36 27–38

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Vlaams Belang.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.2% 100%  
30 1.0% 99.8%  
31 3% 98.8%  
32 7% 96%  
33 11% 89%  
34 13% 78%  
35 16% 65% Median
36 22% 49%  
37 16% 27%  
38 7% 11%  
39 2% 4%  
40 1.1% 2%  
41 0.7% 1.1%  
42 0.4% 0.4%  
43 0% 0%