Vlaams Belang
Voting Intentions
Last result: 22.7% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 21.5% | 19.8–24.0% | 19.4–24.6% | 19.2–25.1% | 18.6–26.0% |
| 27 May–3 June 2025 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
22.8% | 21.2–24.6% | 20.7–25.1% | 20.3–25.5% | 19.5–26.4% |
| 3–24 March 2025 | Bpact and Universiteit Antwerpen & ULB De Standaard, RTBF and VRT |
20.5% | 19.5–21.7% | 19.2–22.0% | 18.9–22.3% | 18.4–22.8% |
| 4–11 March 2025 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
25.7% | 24.0–27.5% | 23.5–28.1% | 23.1–28.5% | 22.3–29.4% |
| 18–21 November 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
23.5% | 21.8–25.3% | 21.4–25.8% | 21.0–26.2% | 20.2–27.1% |
| 11–17 September 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
23.2% | 21.6–25.0% | 21.1–25.5% | 20.7–25.9% | 19.9–26.8% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Vlaams Belang.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 6% | 99.6% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 20% | 94% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 25% | 73% | Median |
| 21.5–22.5% | 18% | 48% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 15% | 30% | Last Result |
| 23.5–24.5% | 10% | 15% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 4% | 5% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 31 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 29 | 26–32 | 26–32 | 25–33 | 24–34 |
| 27 May–3 June 2025 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
31 | 27–32 | 26–33 | 26–33 | 25–35 |
| 3–24 March 2025 | Bpact and Universiteit Antwerpen & ULB De Standaard, RTBF and VRT |
27 | 26–30 | 25–30 | 25–31 | 24–31 |
| 4–11 March 2025 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
34 | 31–36 | 31–37 | 30–37 | 29–40 |
| 18–21 November 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
31 | 28–34 | 27–34 | 26–35 | 25–36 |
| 11–17 September 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
31 | 28–33 | 27–34 | 26–35 | 25–36 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Vlaams Belang.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 26 | 20% | 96% | |
| 27 | 12% | 76% | |
| 28 | 11% | 63% | |
| 29 | 12% | 53% | Median |
| 30 | 12% | 41% | |
| 31 | 10% | 29% | Last Result |
| 32 | 14% | 18% | |
| 33 | 3% | 4% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |