Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 2–9 March 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 23.9% 25.5% 23.8–27.3% 23.3–27.8% 22.9–28.3% 22.1–29.2%
Vlaams Belang 22.7% 25.4% 23.7–27.2% 23.2–27.7% 22.8–28.2% 22.0–29.1%
Vooruit 13.8% 12.8% 11.5–14.2% 11.2–14.6% 10.9–15.0% 10.3–15.7%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 13.0% 12.6% 11.3–14.0% 11.0–14.4% 10.7–14.8% 10.1–15.5%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 8.3% 9.8% 8.7–11.1% 8.4–11.5% 8.1–11.8% 7.6–12.5%
Groen 7.3% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.7–10.1%
Anders 8.3% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–6.9% 4.3–7.2% 4.0–7.7%
Team Fouad Ahidar 0.3% 0.1% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5% 0.0–0.6% 0.0–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 31 34 31–36 31–37 30–38 29–39
Vlaams Belang 31 33 31–36 30–37 30–37 28–39
Vooruit 18 16 14–18 13–18 12–18 11–20
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 16 16 13–17 12–17 12–18 11–19
Partij van de Arbeid van België 9 11 10–14 10–14 8–14 7–16
Groen 9 9 8–12 7–12 7–13 5–13
Anders 9 4 2–6 2–6 2–7 1–9
Team Fouad Ahidar 1 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.9% 99.8%  
30 3% 99.0%  
31 12% 96% Last Result
32 9% 83%  
33 16% 74%  
34 17% 59% Median
35 23% 42%  
36 11% 19%  
37 4% 8%  
38 3% 4%  
39 1.0% 1.2%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 1.0% 99.5%  
30 7% 98.5%  
31 10% 91% Last Result
32 15% 81%  
33 16% 66% Median
34 12% 50%  
35 22% 37%  
36 10% 16%  
37 4% 5%  
38 0.9% 1.4%  
39 0.3% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 2% 100%  
12 2% 98%  
13 5% 96%  
14 9% 91%  
15 12% 82%  
16 21% 70% Median
17 36% 49%  
18 11% 13% Last Result
19 2% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.6%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 2% 100%  
12 6% 98%  
13 9% 92%  
14 18% 83%  
15 11% 65%  
16 42% 54% Last Result, Median
17 10% 13%  
18 2% 3%  
19 1.3% 1.4%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 2% 99.9%  
8 1.0% 98%  
9 2% 97% Last Result
10 22% 95%  
11 26% 73% Median
12 23% 48%  
13 6% 24%  
14 17% 18%  
15 1.0% 2%  
16 0.4% 0.5%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100%  
6 2% 99.5%  
7 5% 98%  
8 10% 92%  
9 36% 82% Last Result, Median
10 10% 46%  
11 25% 36%  
12 8% 11%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Anders

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Anders page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 34% 98%  
3 12% 64%  
4 9% 52% Median
5 31% 42%  
6 9% 12%  
7 2% 3%  
8 0.7% 1.2%  
9 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Team Fouad Ahidar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Team Fouad Ahidar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 54% 100% Median
1 35% 46% Last Result
2 10% 11%  
3 1.2% 1.4%  
4 0.1% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vlaams Belang – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 78 83 100% 79–85 79–86 78–87 76–88
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Anders 74 69 99.5% 65–72 64–73 64–73 62–75
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vlaams Belang 62 67 98% 64–70 63–71 63–72 61–73
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 65 65 83% 62–68 60–69 59–70 58–71
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Anders 58 54 0% 50–57 49–57 49–59 47–60
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Anders 56 53 0% 49–56 49–57 48–58 47–59
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen 52 52 0% 49–56 48–56 47–57 46–58
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 47 49 0% 46–52 45–53 44–53 43–55
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Anders 52 44 0% 41–48 40–49 40–50 38–51
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen 43 41 0% 38–44 37–45 36–45 34–47
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Anders 40 37 0% 35–40 34–41 33–42 32–44
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Anders 43 35 0% 32–38 31–39 30–39 29–41
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 34 31 0% 28–34 27–34 27–35 25–36
Vooruit – Groen – Anders 36 29 0% 26–33 25–34 25–34 23–36
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Anders 34 28 0% 25–32 25–33 24–33 22–35
Vooruit – Anders 27 19 0% 17–23 16–23 15–24 14–25
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Anders 25 19 0% 16–21 16–22 15–23 13–25

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vlaams Belang – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.4% 99.9%  
77 1.4% 99.5%  
78 3% 98% Last Result
79 8% 95%  
80 8% 87%  
81 12% 79%  
82 15% 66%  
83 21% 51% Median
84 10% 30%  
85 10% 20%  
86 5% 10%  
87 3% 5%  
88 0.9% 1.4%  
89 0.3% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Anders

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.8%  
63 2% 99.5% Majority
64 3% 98%  
65 6% 94%  
66 10% 89%  
67 11% 79%  
68 15% 68%  
69 9% 53%  
70 23% 44% Median
71 7% 21%  
72 6% 14%  
73 5% 7%  
74 1.4% 2% Last Result
75 0.7% 0.9%  
76 0.2% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vlaams Belang

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.2% 100%  
61 0.9% 99.8%  
62 1.1% 98.9% Last Result
63 4% 98% Majority
64 6% 94%  
65 9% 87%  
66 14% 78%  
67 18% 64% Median
68 14% 46%  
69 13% 32%  
70 11% 20%  
71 5% 9%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.6% 1.1%  
74 0.4% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.4% 99.8%  
59 2% 99.4%  
60 3% 97%  
61 4% 94%  
62 8% 90%  
63 10% 83% Majority
64 12% 73%  
65 16% 60% Last Result
66 18% 45% Median
67 9% 27%  
68 12% 18%  
69 3% 6%  
70 3% 3%  
71 0.6% 1.0%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Anders

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.3% 99.8%  
48 2% 99.5%  
49 5% 98%  
50 6% 93%  
51 8% 87%  
52 12% 79%  
53 12% 67%  
54 22% 55% Median
55 8% 33%  
56 11% 25%  
57 9% 14%  
58 2% 5% Last Result
59 2% 3%  
60 0.5% 0.7%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0% Majority

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Anders

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 1.2% 99.6%  
48 2% 98%  
49 9% 96%  
50 8% 88%  
51 12% 80%  
52 13% 67%  
53 15% 54%  
54 17% 39% Median
55 8% 21%  
56 7% 13% Last Result
57 4% 6%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.5% 0.8%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.8%  
46 0.8% 99.6%  
47 2% 98.7%  
48 5% 97%  
49 4% 92%  
50 8% 88%  
51 11% 80%  
52 20% 68% Last Result, Median
53 18% 49%  
54 13% 31%  
55 7% 18%  
56 7% 11%  
57 2% 4%  
58 1.2% 2%  
59 0.3% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.7% 99.6%  
44 2% 98.9%  
45 5% 97%  
46 5% 92%  
47 17% 87% Last Result
48 13% 70%  
49 14% 58%  
50 17% 44% Median
51 15% 27%  
52 7% 12%  
53 3% 5%  
54 0.9% 2%  
55 1.1% 1.3%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Anders

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.7%  
39 1.0% 99.0%  
40 3% 98%  
41 6% 95%  
42 14% 89%  
43 8% 75%  
44 19% 67%  
45 13% 48% Median
46 14% 36%  
47 9% 21%  
48 5% 13%  
49 5% 8%  
50 2% 4%  
51 0.8% 1.1%  
52 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.5% 99.7%  
35 1.2% 99.2%  
36 2% 98%  
37 5% 96%  
38 6% 91%  
39 10% 84%  
40 18% 75%  
41 16% 57% Median
42 22% 41%  
43 6% 19% Last Result
44 7% 13%  
45 4% 6%  
46 0.9% 2%  
47 0.6% 0.9%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Anders

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.8% 99.8%  
33 2% 99.0%  
34 5% 97%  
35 11% 91%  
36 16% 81%  
37 15% 65%  
38 16% 50% Median
39 10% 34%  
40 14% 24% Last Result
41 6% 10%  
42 2% 4%  
43 1.2% 2%  
44 0.8% 1.0%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Anders

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 0.9% 99.6%  
30 2% 98.7%  
31 6% 97%  
32 6% 91%  
33 17% 85%  
34 8% 68%  
35 21% 59%  
36 14% 38% Median
37 9% 24%  
38 8% 15%  
39 4% 7%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.5% 0.9%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
44 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.7% 99.7%  
26 1.3% 99.0%  
27 4% 98%  
28 6% 94%  
29 8% 88%  
30 14% 79%  
31 20% 66%  
32 19% 46% Median
33 15% 26%  
34 6% 11% Last Result
35 3% 5%  
36 1.0% 1.3%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Groen – Anders

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.4% 99.8%  
24 1.4% 99.4%  
25 3% 98%  
26 7% 95%  
27 8% 87%  
28 15% 79%  
29 15% 64% Median
30 19% 49%  
31 12% 31%  
32 7% 19%  
33 6% 13%  
34 5% 7%  
35 1.1% 2%  
36 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Anders

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.4% 99.9%  
23 1.3% 99.5%  
24 3% 98%  
25 9% 96%  
26 7% 87%  
27 18% 80%  
28 14% 63%  
29 15% 48% Median
30 12% 34%  
31 8% 22%  
32 6% 14%  
33 5% 7%  
34 2% 2% Last Result
35 0.4% 0.7%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Anders

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 0.4% 99.6%  
15 3% 99.2%  
16 3% 96%  
17 7% 94%  
18 10% 87%  
19 27% 77%  
20 16% 49% Median
21 9% 34%  
22 14% 24%  
23 8% 11%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.7% 1.1%  
26 0.3% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Anders

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.7% 100%  
14 1.1% 99.2%  
15 2% 98%  
16 12% 96%  
17 9% 84%  
18 22% 74%  
19 14% 52%  
20 14% 39% Median
21 15% 24%  
22 7% 10%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.9% 1.5%  
25 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations