Opinion Poll by Bpact and Universiteit Antwerpen & ULB for De Standaard, RTBF and VRT, 9 March–5 April 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie | 23.9% | 28.2% | 26.9–29.5% | 26.5–29.9% | 26.2–30.2% | 25.6–30.9% |
| Vlaams Belang | 22.7% | 22.2% | 21.0–23.5% | 20.7–23.8% | 20.4–24.1% | 19.9–24.7% |
| Vooruit | 13.8% | 12.1% | 11.2–13.1% | 11.0–13.4% | 10.7–13.6% | 10.3–14.1% |
| Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams | 13.0% | 11.8% | 10.9–12.8% | 10.7–13.1% | 10.4–13.3% | 10.0–13.8% |
| Partij van de Arbeid van België | 8.3% | 11.0% | 10.2–12.0% | 9.9–12.3% | 9.7–12.5% | 9.3–13.0% |
| Groen | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.1–7.6% | 5.9–7.8% | 5.8–8.0% | 5.5–8.4% |
| Anders | 8.3% | 6.2% | 5.5–6.9% | 5.3–7.1% | 5.2–7.3% | 4.9–7.7% |
| Team Fouad Ahidar | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0–0.2% | 0.0–0.2% | 0.0–0.3% | 0.0–0.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie | 31 | 38 | 36–39 | 35–40 | 35–41 | 34–42 |
| Vlaams Belang | 31 | 29 | 27–31 | 27–32 | 26–32 | 26–33 |
| Vooruit | 18 | 15 | 13–17 | 12–17 | 12–17 | 11–18 |
| Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams | 16 | 14 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 11–16 | 11–17 |
| Partij van de Arbeid van België | 9 | 14 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–16 | 11–17 |
| Groen | 9 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 6–11 | 5–11 |
| Anders | 9 | 5 | 3–6 | 3–7 | 2–7 | 2–8 |
| Team Fouad Ahidar | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 6% | 99.2% | |
| 36 | 15% | 93% | |
| 37 | 16% | 78% | |
| 38 | 23% | 62% | Median |
| 39 | 30% | 40% | |
| 40 | 7% | 10% | |
| 41 | 2% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 9% | 97% | |
| 28 | 16% | 88% | |
| 29 | 26% | 73% | Median |
| 30 | 23% | 46% | |
| 31 | 16% | 23% | Last Result |
| 32 | 6% | 7% | |
| 33 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 4% | 98% | |
| 13 | 5% | 95% | |
| 14 | 13% | 89% | |
| 15 | 27% | 76% | Median |
| 16 | 15% | 49% | |
| 17 | 33% | 34% | |
| 18 | 1.4% | 2% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 3% | 100% | |
| 12 | 19% | 97% | |
| 13 | 13% | 77% | |
| 14 | 17% | 64% | Median |
| 15 | 17% | 47% | |
| 16 | 29% | 30% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid van België
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 12% | 98% | |
| 13 | 15% | 86% | |
| 14 | 60% | 71% | Median |
| 15 | 7% | 11% | |
| 16 | 3% | 4% | |
| 17 | 1.5% | 1.5% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 7% | 99.0% | |
| 7 | 13% | 92% | |
| 8 | 37% | 79% | Median |
| 9 | 37% | 42% | Last Result |
| 10 | 2% | 5% | |
| 11 | 3% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Anders
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Anders page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 7% | 96% | |
| 4 | 6% | 89% | |
| 5 | 50% | 83% | Median |
| 6 | 26% | 33% | |
| 7 | 5% | 7% | |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Team Fouad Ahidar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Team Fouad Ahidar page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 83% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 16% | 17% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vlaams Belang – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams | 78 | 81 | 100% | 79–84 | 78–84 | 78–85 | 77–86 |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Anders | 74 | 73 | 100% | 70–75 | 69–76 | 69–76 | 68–77 |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams | 65 | 68 | 99.1% | 65–70 | 64–71 | 64–71 | 62–73 |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vlaams Belang | 62 | 67 | 99.7% | 64–69 | 64–70 | 64–71 | 63–72 |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Anders | 58 | 58 | 1.4% | 56–61 | 55–61 | 54–62 | 53–63 |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Anders | 56 | 57 | 0.2% | 54–60 | 54–60 | 53–61 | 53–62 |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams | 47 | 52 | 0% | 49–55 | 49–55 | 48–56 | 48–57 |
| Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen | 52 | 51 | 0% | 49–54 | 49–55 | 48–55 | 46–56 |
| Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Anders | 52 | 43 | 0% | 40–46 | 40–46 | 39–46 | 38–47 |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Anders | 40 | 43 | 0% | 41–45 | 40–46 | 39–46 | 38–48 |
| Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen | 43 | 38 | 0% | 35–40 | 35–41 | 34–41 | 33–42 |
| Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Anders | 43 | 35 | 0% | 32–37 | 31–38 | 31–38 | 30–39 |
| Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams | 34 | 30 | 0% | 27–32 | 26–33 | 26–33 | 25–33 |
| Vooruit – Groen – Anders | 36 | 29 | 0% | 26–31 | 26–32 | 25–32 | 24–33 |
| Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Anders | 34 | 27 | 0% | 25–30 | 24–30 | 24–31 | 23–32 |
| Vooruit – Anders | 27 | 21 | 0% | 18–23 | 17–23 | 17–23 | 16–24 |
| Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Anders | 25 | 19 | 0% | 17–21 | 17–22 | 16–23 | 15–24 |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vlaams Belang – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 78 | 7% | 98.8% | Last Result |
| 79 | 9% | 92% | |
| 80 | 18% | 82% | |
| 81 | 18% | 65% | Median |
| 82 | 15% | 46% | |
| 83 | 17% | 32% | |
| 84 | 10% | 15% | |
| 85 | 3% | 5% | |
| 86 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Anders
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 69 | 3% | 98% | |
| 70 | 11% | 95% | |
| 71 | 15% | 84% | |
| 72 | 18% | 70% | Median |
| 73 | 20% | 52% | |
| 74 | 17% | 33% | Last Result |
| 75 | 9% | 16% | |
| 76 | 6% | 7% | |
| 77 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 78 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 2% | 99.1% | Majority |
| 64 | 4% | 98% | |
| 65 | 12% | 94% | Last Result |
| 66 | 16% | 82% | |
| 67 | 14% | 65% | Median |
| 68 | 21% | 51% | |
| 69 | 14% | 31% | |
| 70 | 9% | 16% | |
| 71 | 6% | 7% | |
| 72 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vlaams Belang
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 63 | 1.3% | 99.7% | Majority |
| 64 | 10% | 98% | |
| 65 | 9% | 88% | |
| 66 | 14% | 79% | |
| 67 | 16% | 65% | Median |
| 68 | 22% | 49% | |
| 69 | 17% | 27% | |
| 70 | 6% | 10% | |
| 71 | 3% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Anders
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 55 | 3% | 97% | |
| 56 | 8% | 94% | |
| 57 | 20% | 86% | |
| 58 | 18% | 66% | Last Result, Median |
| 59 | 18% | 48% | |
| 60 | 15% | 29% | |
| 61 | 9% | 14% | |
| 62 | 3% | 5% | |
| 63 | 1.1% | 1.4% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Anders
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 54 | 7% | 97% | |
| 55 | 13% | 90% | |
| 56 | 16% | 77% | Last Result |
| 57 | 20% | 61% | Median |
| 58 | 14% | 41% | |
| 59 | 13% | 27% | |
| 60 | 10% | 14% | |
| 61 | 3% | 4% | |
| 62 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 48 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 49 | 6% | 95% | |
| 50 | 13% | 89% | |
| 51 | 20% | 77% | |
| 52 | 16% | 57% | Median |
| 53 | 16% | 42% | |
| 54 | 13% | 26% | |
| 55 | 10% | 13% | |
| 56 | 2% | 3% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 47 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 48 | 3% | 98% | |
| 49 | 11% | 95% | |
| 50 | 18% | 84% | |
| 51 | 17% | 66% | Median |
| 52 | 18% | 49% | Last Result |
| 53 | 12% | 31% | |
| 54 | 11% | 19% | |
| 55 | 7% | 8% | |
| 56 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Anders
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 39 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 40 | 8% | 97% | |
| 41 | 15% | 89% | |
| 42 | 18% | 74% | Median |
| 43 | 17% | 56% | |
| 44 | 17% | 39% | |
| 45 | 11% | 22% | |
| 46 | 10% | 12% | |
| 47 | 2% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Anders
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 40 | 5% | 97% | Last Result |
| 41 | 12% | 92% | |
| 42 | 18% | 80% | |
| 43 | 23% | 62% | Median |
| 44 | 20% | 39% | |
| 45 | 13% | 19% | |
| 46 | 5% | 7% | |
| 47 | 2% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 34 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 35 | 9% | 96% | |
| 36 | 15% | 87% | |
| 37 | 16% | 72% | Median |
| 38 | 19% | 56% | |
| 39 | 15% | 37% | |
| 40 | 13% | 22% | |
| 41 | 8% | 9% | |
| 42 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Anders
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 31 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 32 | 10% | 95% | |
| 33 | 13% | 85% | |
| 34 | 18% | 72% | Median |
| 35 | 17% | 54% | |
| 36 | 19% | 37% | |
| 37 | 10% | 18% | |
| 38 | 8% | 9% | |
| 39 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 26 | 4% | 98% | |
| 27 | 11% | 94% | |
| 28 | 14% | 84% | |
| 29 | 17% | 70% | Median |
| 30 | 15% | 53% | |
| 31 | 22% | 38% | |
| 32 | 9% | 16% | |
| 33 | 6% | 6% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit – Groen – Anders
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 26 | 9% | 96% | |
| 27 | 15% | 87% | |
| 28 | 16% | 72% | Median |
| 29 | 20% | 56% | |
| 30 | 18% | 37% | |
| 31 | 10% | 18% | |
| 32 | 7% | 9% | |
| 33 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Anders
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 24 | 3% | 98% | |
| 25 | 11% | 95% | |
| 26 | 15% | 83% | |
| 27 | 20% | 69% | Median |
| 28 | 13% | 49% | |
| 29 | 24% | 36% | |
| 30 | 8% | 12% | |
| 31 | 2% | 4% | |
| 32 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit – Anders
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 17 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 18 | 8% | 95% | |
| 19 | 14% | 87% | |
| 20 | 22% | 72% | Median |
| 21 | 16% | 51% | |
| 22 | 22% | 35% | |
| 23 | 12% | 14% | |
| 24 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Anders
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 16 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 17 | 16% | 96% | |
| 18 | 17% | 80% | |
| 19 | 15% | 63% | Median |
| 20 | 15% | 48% | |
| 21 | 27% | 33% | |
| 22 | 3% | 6% | |
| 23 | 2% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Bpact and Universiteit Antwerpen & ULB
- Commissioner(s): De Standaard, RTBF and VRT
- Fieldwork period: 9 March–5 April 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1948
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.20%