Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 8–15 September 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 22.7% 27.8% 26.0–29.7% 25.5–30.2% 25.1–30.7% 24.3–31.6%
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 23.9% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 13.0% 13.3% 12.0–14.8% 11.6–15.2% 11.3–15.6% 10.7–16.3%
Vooruit 13.8% 12.9% 11.6–14.4% 11.3–14.8% 11.0–15.1% 10.4–15.9%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 8.3% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Groen 7.3% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.4%
Anders 8.3% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 31 36 35–40 34–41 33–41 32–42
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 31 30 28–32 27–32 27–34 25–36
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 16 16 15–18 13–19 13–19 12–20
Vooruit 18 17 14–18 12–18 11–19 11–20
Partij van de Arbeid van België 9 12 10–14 10–14 10–15 7–16
Groen 9 7 5–9 5–9 4–10 2–11
Anders 9 5 2–6 2–7 2–8 2–10

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
32 2% 99.6%  
33 3% 98%  
34 4% 95%  
35 10% 91%  
36 35% 81% Median
37 18% 47%  
38 8% 28%  
39 8% 20%  
40 6% 12%  
41 5% 6%  
42 0.7% 1.1%  
43 0.2% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.5%  
27 3% 98%  
28 7% 94%  
29 21% 87%  
30 31% 66% Median
31 21% 35% Last Result
32 10% 14%  
33 2% 5%  
34 1.2% 3%  
35 0.7% 1.3%  
36 0.5% 0.6%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 2% 99.8%  
13 3% 98%  
14 4% 94%  
15 12% 91%  
16 41% 79% Last Result, Median
17 25% 38%  
18 6% 13%  
19 6% 7%  
20 0.9% 1.2%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 3% 100%  
12 2% 97%  
13 4% 95%  
14 7% 91%  
15 8% 84%  
16 17% 75%  
17 44% 58% Median
18 11% 14% Last Result
19 2% 3%  
20 0.8% 1.0%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.7% 100%  
8 0.5% 99.3%  
9 0.5% 98.8% Last Result
10 26% 98%  
11 17% 73%  
12 14% 56% Median
13 16% 42%  
14 23% 27%  
15 2% 4%  
16 0.7% 1.1%  
17 0.4% 0.4%  
18 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 0.4% 99.7%  
3 1.0% 99.3%  
4 2% 98%  
5 20% 97%  
6 15% 77%  
7 24% 62% Median
8 19% 38%  
9 16% 19% Last Result
10 2% 3%  
11 0.8% 0.8%  
12 0% 0%  

Anders

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Anders page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.4% 100%  
2 10% 99.6%  
3 13% 89%  
4 6% 76%  
5 41% 70% Median
6 21% 29%  
7 4% 8%  
8 2% 4%  
9 1.0% 2% Last Result
10 0.8% 1.1%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 78 83 100% 80–86 80–87 79–88 77–89
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Anders 74 67 97% 64–70 63–71 62–72 61–74
Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 62 67 98% 64–70 64–71 63–71 61–73
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit 65 63 51% 60–65 58–66 58–67 56–69
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Anders 56 51 0% 48–54 48–55 47–56 45–57
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Anders 58 51 0% 48–54 47–54 47–55 45–58
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen 52 52 0% 49–54 47–55 46–55 44–56
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 47 46 0% 44–49 43–50 42–51 41–52
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Groen – Anders 52 44 0% 41–47 40–48 39–49 37–50
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Groen 43 39 0% 36–42 35–43 34–44 33–45
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Anders 43 37 0% 34–40 33–41 32–42 30–43
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Anders 40 35 0% 32–37 32–38 31–39 30–41
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit 34 33 0% 29–35 28–36 27–36 26–37
Vooruit – Groen – Anders 36 28 0% 25–31 24–32 23–33 21–34
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Anders 34 28 0% 25–31 24–32 23–32 22–34
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Anders 25 21 0% 18–23 18–24 17–25 16–27
Vooruit – Anders 27 22 0% 18–23 17–24 16–25 15–26

Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.5% 99.8%  
78 1.0% 99.4% Last Result
79 3% 98%  
80 6% 96%  
81 12% 89%  
82 18% 77% Median
83 21% 59%  
84 15% 38%  
85 9% 23%  
86 7% 14%  
87 4% 7%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.7% 1.1%  
90 0.3% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Anders

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.7% 99.8%  
62 2% 99.1%  
63 3% 97% Majority
64 6% 94%  
65 7% 88%  
66 14% 81%  
67 21% 67%  
68 19% 46% Median
69 12% 27%  
70 8% 15%  
71 4% 6%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.6% 1.2%  
74 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.4% 99.8%  
62 1.2% 99.5% Last Result
63 3% 98% Majority
64 6% 95%  
65 13% 89%  
66 23% 75% Median
67 20% 53%  
68 13% 32%  
69 8% 19%  
70 5% 11%  
71 4% 6%  
72 1.4% 2%  
73 0.6% 0.9%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.6% 99.7%  
57 2% 99.1%  
58 3% 98%  
59 4% 94%  
60 7% 90%  
61 13% 83%  
62 19% 70%  
63 19% 51% Median, Majority
64 15% 31%  
65 8% 16% Last Result
66 5% 8%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.8% 1.4%  
69 0.4% 0.6%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Anders

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.2% 100%  
45 0.5% 99.8%  
46 1.2% 99.3%  
47 3% 98%  
48 7% 95%  
49 13% 88%  
50 14% 76%  
51 20% 62% Median
52 17% 41%  
53 12% 24%  
54 6% 12%  
55 3% 6%  
56 2% 3% Last Result
57 0.8% 1.2%  
58 0.3% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Anders

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.8%  
46 2% 99.4%  
47 3% 98%  
48 5% 95%  
49 11% 90%  
50 16% 79%  
51 23% 63%  
52 20% 40% Median
53 10% 20%  
54 6% 10%  
55 2% 4%  
56 1.1% 2%  
57 0.7% 1.3%  
58 0.4% 0.7% Last Result
59 0.1% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.3% 99.8%  
45 0.8% 99.5%  
46 1.3% 98.6%  
47 3% 97%  
48 4% 95%  
49 8% 90%  
50 15% 83%  
51 17% 68%  
52 21% 51% Last Result, Median
53 15% 29%  
54 8% 14%  
55 4% 6%  
56 1.2% 2%  
57 0.3% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 1.2% 99.6%  
42 2% 98%  
43 5% 96%  
44 10% 92%  
45 14% 82%  
46 23% 68% Median
47 21% 45% Last Result
48 13% 24%  
49 6% 11%  
50 3% 6%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.5% 0.8%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Groen – Anders

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.8%  
38 1.3% 99.3%  
39 2% 98%  
40 4% 96%  
41 6% 92%  
42 10% 85%  
43 13% 75%  
44 17% 62%  
45 13% 45% Median
46 15% 32%  
47 9% 17%  
48 5% 8%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.9% 1.3%  
51 0.3% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
53 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.3% 99.8%  
33 0.8% 99.5%  
34 2% 98.8%  
35 3% 97%  
36 5% 93%  
37 9% 88%  
38 12% 79%  
39 18% 67%  
40 16% 49% Median
41 17% 33%  
42 8% 16%  
43 5% 8% Last Result
44 2% 3%  
45 0.5% 0.7%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Anders

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.8%  
31 1.0% 99.4%  
32 3% 98%  
33 4% 96%  
34 6% 92%  
35 9% 86%  
36 14% 77%  
37 14% 64%  
38 18% 49% Median
39 15% 31%  
40 9% 16%  
41 4% 7%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.7% 1.1% Last Result
44 0.2% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Anders

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.9%  
30 0.7% 99.6%  
31 2% 98.9%  
32 7% 97%  
33 15% 90%  
34 19% 75%  
35 22% 56% Median
36 15% 34%  
37 11% 19%  
38 4% 8%  
39 2% 4%  
40 1.4% 2% Last Result
41 0.5% 0.8%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.6% 99.7%  
27 2% 99.1%  
28 3% 97%  
29 5% 94%  
30 8% 89%  
31 10% 81%  
32 16% 71%  
33 25% 55% Median
34 16% 30% Last Result
35 8% 15%  
36 6% 7%  
37 1.2% 2%  
38 0.2% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Groen – Anders

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.5% 99.7%  
22 1.2% 99.3%  
23 2% 98%  
24 5% 96%  
25 7% 91%  
26 13% 84%  
27 13% 72%  
28 17% 59%  
29 14% 42% Median
30 13% 27%  
31 7% 14%  
32 4% 7%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.7% 0.9%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0% 0.1% Last Result
37 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Anders

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.8%  
22 0.9% 99.6%  
23 2% 98.6%  
24 4% 96%  
25 6% 93%  
26 12% 86%  
27 15% 75%  
28 18% 60% Median
29 18% 42%  
30 10% 23%  
31 8% 13%  
32 3% 5%  
33 1.5% 2%  
34 0.6% 0.9% Last Result
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Anders

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.3% 99.9%  
16 0.7% 99.6%  
17 3% 99.0%  
18 9% 96%  
19 10% 87%  
20 10% 77%  
21 27% 67% Median
22 21% 40%  
23 11% 20%  
24 5% 9%  
25 3% 4% Last Result
26 1.0% 2%  
27 0.4% 0.7%  
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Anders

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.2% 99.9%  
15 0.6% 99.6%  
16 2% 99.0%  
17 5% 97%  
18 5% 92%  
19 10% 87%  
20 14% 77%  
21 12% 62%  
22 27% 50% Median
23 14% 23%  
24 6% 9%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.9% 1.3%  
27 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations