Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 16–23 September 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 22.7% 26.7% 25.0–28.6% 24.5–29.1% 24.1–29.5% 23.2–30.4%
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 23.9% 23.4% 21.7–25.2% 21.3–25.7% 20.9–26.1% 20.1–27.0%
Vooruit 13.8% 13.6% 12.3–15.1% 11.9–15.5% 11.6–15.9% 11.0–16.6%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 13.0% 13.4% 12.1–14.9% 11.7–15.3% 11.4–15.7% 10.8–16.4%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 8.3% 9.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.7–10.7% 7.5–11.1% 7.0–11.7%
Groen 7.3% 7.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.8–9.1% 5.4–9.7%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 8.3% 5.7% 4.9–6.8% 4.6–7.1% 4.4–7.3% 4.1–7.9%
Team Fouad Ahidar 0.3% 0.0% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 31 36 32–38 32–39 31–39 30–41
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 31 31 29–33 28–34 28–35 25–36
Vooruit 18 17 16–19 14–19 14–20 12–22
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 16 16 14–18 13–19 13–19 12–21
Partij van de Arbeid van België 9 11 8–13 7–14 7–14 6–14
Groen 9 9 7–11 6–12 6–12 5–13
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 9 5 2–6 2–7 2–8 1–8
Team Fouad Ahidar 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.5% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.4% Last Result
32 9% 97%  
33 7% 88%  
34 6% 81%  
35 15% 75%  
36 26% 59% Median
37 21% 33%  
38 7% 12%  
39 3% 5%  
40 1.4% 2%  
41 0.7% 0.8%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.6% 100%  
26 0.9% 99.3%  
27 0.7% 98%  
28 4% 98%  
29 17% 94%  
30 18% 77%  
31 28% 59% Last Result, Median
32 16% 31%  
33 7% 16%  
34 4% 9%  
35 3% 4%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 0.5% 99.8%  
13 0.7% 99.3%  
14 5% 98.6%  
15 4% 94%  
16 8% 90%  
17 45% 82% Median
18 25% 37% Last Result
19 8% 12%  
20 3% 4%  
21 1.2% 2%  
22 0.4% 0.6%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 1.5% 99.8%  
13 4% 98%  
14 5% 95%  
15 7% 90%  
16 44% 82% Last Result, Median
17 25% 39%  
18 7% 13%  
19 5% 7%  
20 1.2% 2%  
21 0.5% 0.7%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.9% 100%  
7 9% 99.1%  
8 6% 90%  
9 2% 84% Last Result
10 22% 82%  
11 30% 60% Median
12 17% 29%  
13 7% 12%  
14 5% 5%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.9% 99.9%  
6 5% 99.0%  
7 11% 94%  
8 22% 83%  
9 31% 61% Last Result, Median
10 8% 30%  
11 12% 22%  
12 7% 9%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 24% 98%  
3 9% 74%  
4 2% 65%  
5 46% 63% Median
6 12% 17%  
7 2% 6%  
8 3% 4%  
9 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Team Fouad Ahidar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Team Fouad Ahidar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 79% 100% Median
1 18% 21% Last Result
2 3% 3%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 78 83 100% 79–86 79–86 78–87 77–89
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 74 69 99.4% 66–72 65–73 64–74 62–75
Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 62 67 95% 63–69 63–70 62–71 60–73
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 65 64 76% 61–68 61–69 60–69 58–70
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen 52 53 0% 50–56 49–57 48–58 47–59
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 58 52 0% 50–55 49–57 48–58 46–59
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 56 51 0% 49–54 48–56 47–56 45–58
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 47 47 0% 45–50 44–51 43–52 41–53
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 52 46 0% 44–50 43–51 42–52 40–53
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen 43 42 0% 40–46 39–47 38–47 37–49
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 43 38 0% 35–41 34–42 33–42 31–44
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 40 35 0% 32–38 32–39 31–40 29–41
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 34 33 0% 31–36 30–36 29–37 28–39
Vooruit – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 36 30 0% 28–34 27–35 26–35 24–37
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 34 30 0% 27–33 26–34 25–34 24–36
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 27 22 0% 19–24 18–25 18–26 16–27
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 25 21 0% 18–23 17–24 17–24 15–26

Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.3% 99.9%  
77 1.2% 99.6%  
78 2% 98% Last Result
79 8% 96%  
80 8% 88%  
81 7% 80%  
82 19% 73%  
83 20% 54% Median
84 10% 35%  
85 14% 25%  
86 7% 11%  
87 2% 4%  
88 1.4% 2%  
89 0.7% 0.8%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.8%  
63 0.7% 99.4% Majority
64 2% 98.6%  
65 5% 97%  
66 10% 92%  
67 19% 82%  
68 10% 63%  
69 19% 53% Median
70 15% 34%  
71 8% 19%  
72 5% 11%  
73 2% 7%  
74 2% 4% Last Result
75 2% 2%  
76 0.4% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.5% 99.8%  
61 2% 99.4%  
62 3% 98% Last Result
63 8% 95% Majority
64 8% 87%  
65 13% 80%  
66 15% 67%  
67 21% 52% Median
68 14% 31%  
69 9% 17%  
70 4% 8%  
71 2% 4%  
72 1.4% 2%  
73 0.5% 0.5%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.5% 99.8%  
59 1.2% 99.3%  
60 3% 98%  
61 7% 95%  
62 12% 88%  
63 11% 76% Majority
64 17% 65% Median
65 22% 49% Last Result
66 10% 27%  
67 6% 17%  
68 4% 10%  
69 4% 6%  
70 1.4% 2%  
71 0.3% 0.5%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 0.5% 99.6%  
48 2% 99.0%  
49 4% 97%  
50 6% 93%  
51 13% 87%  
52 17% 74% Last Result
53 15% 58% Median
54 15% 43%  
55 9% 27%  
56 11% 18%  
57 3% 7%  
58 2% 4%  
59 1.2% 2%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.5% 99.8%  
47 1.3% 99.4%  
48 3% 98%  
49 5% 95%  
50 11% 90%  
51 19% 79%  
52 13% 60%  
53 17% 46% Median
54 10% 29%  
55 9% 19%  
56 4% 10%  
57 2% 5%  
58 2% 3% Last Result
59 0.9% 1.1%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.3% 99.8%  
46 1.0% 99.5%  
47 2% 98%  
48 5% 96%  
49 11% 91%  
50 16% 80%  
51 16% 65%  
52 21% 49% Median
53 10% 27%  
54 7% 17%  
55 4% 10%  
56 3% 6% Last Result
57 1.4% 2%  
58 0.7% 1.1%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.9%  
42 1.1% 99.4%  
43 3% 98%  
44 4% 95%  
45 10% 91%  
46 18% 81%  
47 25% 63% Last Result, Median
48 16% 38%  
49 9% 22%  
50 6% 13%  
51 3% 7%  
52 2% 4%  
53 1.0% 1.3%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.8% 99.8%  
41 0.8% 99.0%  
42 2% 98%  
43 4% 96%  
44 8% 92%  
45 17% 84%  
46 18% 67%  
47 15% 50% Median
48 11% 35%  
49 8% 24%  
50 8% 16%  
51 4% 8%  
52 2% 3% Last Result
53 0.9% 1.2%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.8%  
37 1.1% 99.6%  
38 2% 98%  
39 4% 96%  
40 11% 92%  
41 19% 81%  
42 14% 62% Median
43 18% 48% Last Result
44 10% 30%  
45 9% 20%  
46 5% 11%  
47 4% 6%  
48 1.1% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.7%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.8%  
32 0.8% 99.5%  
33 2% 98.7%  
34 4% 97%  
35 10% 93%  
36 13% 83%  
37 12% 70%  
38 22% 58% Median
39 17% 36%  
40 8% 19%  
41 6% 11%  
42 3% 5%  
43 1.2% 2% Last Result
44 0.6% 0.8%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.8%  
30 0.8% 99.5%  
31 3% 98.7%  
32 6% 95%  
33 11% 89%  
34 20% 78%  
35 12% 58%  
36 22% 46% Median
37 10% 24%  
38 6% 14%  
39 4% 8%  
40 2% 4% Last Result
41 1.2% 2%  
42 0.4% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 1.0% 99.7%  
29 2% 98.7%  
30 5% 97%  
31 7% 92%  
32 9% 85%  
33 27% 76% Median
34 23% 49% Last Result
35 12% 26%  
36 10% 15%  
37 2% 4%  
38 1.0% 2%  
39 0.7% 0.9%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.7% 99.9%  
25 0.9% 99.2%  
26 2% 98%  
27 4% 96%  
28 13% 92%  
29 13% 79%  
30 22% 66%  
31 14% 44% Median
32 9% 30%  
33 9% 21%  
34 6% 12%  
35 5% 6%  
36 1.1% 2% Last Result
37 0.3% 0.5%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.8%  
24 1.5% 99.5%  
25 3% 98%  
26 4% 95%  
27 10% 91%  
28 15% 80%  
29 15% 65%  
30 15% 50% Median
31 15% 35%  
32 7% 20%  
33 7% 13%  
34 3% 5% Last Result
35 1.3% 2%  
36 0.8% 0.9%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.2% 99.9%  
16 0.4% 99.6%  
17 1.4% 99.3%  
18 3% 98%  
19 16% 95%  
20 10% 78%  
21 13% 68%  
22 27% 56% Median
23 15% 29%  
24 7% 14%  
25 4% 7%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.6% 0.8% Last Result
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 0.7% 99.8%  
16 1.2% 99.1%  
17 3% 98%  
18 15% 95%  
19 12% 80%  
20 9% 68%  
21 26% 59% Median
22 18% 32%  
23 7% 14%  
24 4% 7%  
25 1.4% 2% Last Result
26 0.5% 0.8%  
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations