Opinion Poll by MMR, 14–17 November 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
24.4% |
22.6–26.2% |
22.1–26.7% |
21.7–27.2% |
20.9–28.1% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
16.0% |
14.6–17.6% |
14.1–18.1% |
13.8–18.5% |
13.1–19.3% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
13.0% |
11.7–14.5% |
11.3–15.0% |
11.0–15.3% |
10.4–16.1% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
10.5% |
9.3–11.9% |
9.0–12.3% |
8.7–12.6% |
8.2–13.3% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
9.9% |
8.7–11.2% |
8.4–11.6% |
8.1–11.9% |
7.6–12.6% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
9.5% |
8.4–10.9% |
8.1–11.2% |
7.8–11.6% |
7.3–12.2% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
8.4% |
7.3–9.6% |
7.0–10.0% |
6.8–10.3% |
6.3–10.9% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
6.5% |
5.5–7.6% |
5.3–7.9% |
5.1–8.2% |
4.6–8.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
14 |
5% |
99.7% |
|
15 |
21% |
94% |
|
16 |
41% |
73% |
Last Result, Median |
17 |
22% |
32% |
|
18 |
8% |
10% |
|
19 |
2% |
2% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
9 |
14% |
98.9% |
|
10 |
44% |
85% |
Median |
11 |
35% |
41% |
|
12 |
6% |
7% |
|
13 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
7 |
11% |
99.4% |
|
8 |
42% |
88% |
Median |
9 |
26% |
47% |
|
10 |
21% |
21% |
|
11 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
3% |
100% |
|
6 |
39% |
97% |
|
7 |
46% |
57% |
Last Result, Median |
8 |
5% |
11% |
|
9 |
4% |
6% |
|
10 |
2% |
2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
5 |
14% |
99.7% |
|
6 |
53% |
86% |
Last Result, Median |
7 |
30% |
33% |
|
8 |
3% |
3% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
5 |
22% |
99.3% |
|
6 |
56% |
77% |
Median |
7 |
16% |
21% |
|
8 |
5% |
5% |
Last Result |
9 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
12% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
5 |
58% |
88% |
Median |
6 |
28% |
30% |
|
7 |
2% |
2% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
2% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
98% |
|
2 |
0% |
98% |
|
3 |
21% |
98% |
|
4 |
63% |
77% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
13% |
13% |
|
6 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
32 |
54% |
30–33 |
30–34 |
29–34 |
28–35 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
31 |
27% |
29–32 |
29–33 |
28–33 |
27–34 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
29 |
3% |
27–31 |
27–31 |
26–32 |
26–33 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
29 |
3% |
27–30 |
27–31 |
26–32 |
25–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
26 |
0% |
25–28 |
25–28 |
24–29 |
23–30 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
26 |
0% |
24–27 |
24–28 |
23–28 |
22–29 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
25 |
0% |
24–26 |
23–27 |
23–28 |
22–28 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
25 |
0% |
23–27 |
23–27 |
22–27 |
22–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
25 |
0% |
23–26 |
23–27 |
22–27 |
21–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
21–25 |
21–26 |
20–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
22 |
0% |
21–24 |
20–24 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
21 |
0% |
20–23 |
19–23 |
19–24 |
18–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
20 |
0% |
18–21 |
18–22 |
18–22 |
16–23 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
19 |
0% |
17–20 |
17–21 |
17–21 |
16–22 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
15 |
0% |
14–17 |
13–17 |
13–18 |
12–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
15 |
0% |
13–16 |
13–16 |
13–17 |
12–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
15 |
0% |
13–16 |
13–16 |
12–17 |
12–17 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
4% |
99.3% |
|
30 |
13% |
96% |
|
31 |
29% |
83% |
Median |
32 |
31% |
54% |
Majority |
33 |
16% |
23% |
Last Result |
34 |
5% |
7% |
|
35 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
36 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
27 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
3% |
98.9% |
|
29 |
15% |
96% |
|
30 |
26% |
81% |
Median |
31 |
28% |
55% |
|
32 |
18% |
27% |
Majority |
33 |
6% |
9% |
|
34 |
2% |
2% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
26 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
27 |
10% |
97% |
|
28 |
27% |
88% |
|
29 |
33% |
61% |
Median |
30 |
18% |
28% |
|
31 |
7% |
10% |
Last Result |
32 |
2% |
3% |
Majority |
33 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
3% |
99.2% |
|
27 |
8% |
96% |
|
28 |
16% |
88% |
Last Result, Median |
29 |
45% |
72% |
|
30 |
19% |
27% |
|
31 |
5% |
8% |
|
32 |
2% |
3% |
Majority |
33 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
24 |
4% |
99.1% |
|
25 |
18% |
95% |
|
26 |
29% |
77% |
Median |
27 |
30% |
48% |
|
28 |
14% |
18% |
|
29 |
3% |
5% |
|
30 |
1.1% |
1.3% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
4% |
99.3% |
|
24 |
12% |
95% |
|
25 |
29% |
83% |
Last Result, Median |
26 |
35% |
55% |
|
27 |
13% |
20% |
|
28 |
5% |
7% |
|
29 |
1.2% |
1.5% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
23 |
6% |
98% |
|
24 |
16% |
92% |
Last Result, Median |
25 |
44% |
76% |
|
26 |
22% |
31% |
|
27 |
6% |
9% |
|
28 |
3% |
3% |
|
29 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
23 |
10% |
97% |
|
24 |
24% |
87% |
Median |
25 |
34% |
63% |
|
26 |
18% |
29% |
Last Result |
27 |
10% |
11% |
|
28 |
2% |
2% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
22 |
4% |
99.3% |
|
23 |
12% |
96% |
|
24 |
29% |
83% |
Median |
25 |
31% |
55% |
|
26 |
16% |
24% |
|
27 |
5% |
8% |
Last Result |
28 |
2% |
2% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
21 |
11% |
98% |
|
22 |
25% |
86% |
|
23 |
35% |
61% |
Last Result, Median |
24 |
17% |
26% |
|
25 |
7% |
10% |
|
26 |
2% |
3% |
|
27 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
7% |
98.8% |
|
21 |
20% |
92% |
|
22 |
37% |
72% |
Median |
23 |
23% |
35% |
|
24 |
9% |
12% |
Last Result |
25 |
3% |
3% |
|
26 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
6% |
98.9% |
|
20 |
18% |
93% |
|
21 |
31% |
75% |
Median |
22 |
28% |
44% |
|
23 |
12% |
16% |
|
24 |
3% |
4% |
|
25 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
18 |
8% |
98% |
|
19 |
21% |
89% |
|
20 |
38% |
69% |
Last Result, Median |
21 |
22% |
30% |
|
22 |
6% |
8% |
|
23 |
2% |
2% |
|
24 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
16 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
17 |
9% |
98% |
|
18 |
24% |
90% |
Last Result, Median |
19 |
40% |
65% |
|
20 |
17% |
25% |
|
21 |
7% |
8% |
|
22 |
1.1% |
1.2% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
13 |
5% |
99.4% |
|
14 |
18% |
94% |
|
15 |
36% |
77% |
Median |
16 |
27% |
41% |
|
17 |
11% |
14% |
|
18 |
2% |
3% |
Last Result |
19 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
12 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
13 |
10% |
98% |
|
14 |
31% |
89% |
Median |
15 |
29% |
58% |
|
16 |
24% |
28% |
|
17 |
3% |
4% |
Last Result |
18 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
12 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
13 |
15% |
97% |
|
14 |
30% |
82% |
Median |
15 |
27% |
51% |
|
16 |
20% |
24% |
|
17 |
4% |
4% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 14–17 November 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 944
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.75%