Opinion Poll by MMR, 14–17 November 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 24.4% 22.6–26.2% 22.1–26.7% 21.7–27.2% 20.9–28.1%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.1–18.1% 13.8–18.5% 13.1–19.3%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.3–15.0% 11.0–15.3% 10.4–16.1%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 10.5% 9.3–11.9% 9.0–12.3% 8.7–12.6% 8.2–13.3%
Píratar 9.2% 9.9% 8.7–11.2% 8.4–11.6% 8.1–11.9% 7.6–12.6%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 9.5% 8.4–10.9% 8.1–11.2% 7.8–11.6% 7.3–12.2%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 8.4% 7.3–9.6% 7.0–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.3–10.9%
Viðreisn 6.7% 6.5% 5.5–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.6–8.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 15–17 14–18 14–18 14–19
Samfylkingin 7 10 9–11 9–12 9–12 8–13
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 7–10 7–10 7–10 6–10
Miðflokkurinn 7 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–10
Píratar 6 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 4–8
Flokkur fólksins 4 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Viðreisn 4 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 0–5

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 5% 99.7%  
15 21% 94%  
16 41% 73% Last Result, Median
17 22% 32%  
18 8% 10%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 1.1% 100%  
9 14% 98.9%  
10 44% 85% Median
11 35% 41%  
12 6% 7%  
13 0.6% 0.7%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.6% 100%  
7 11% 99.4%  
8 42% 88% Median
9 26% 47%  
10 21% 21%  
11 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
12 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 3% 100%  
6 39% 97%  
7 46% 57% Last Result, Median
8 5% 11%  
9 4% 6%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 14% 99.7%  
6 53% 86% Last Result, Median
7 30% 33%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.7% 100%  
5 22% 99.3%  
6 56% 77% Median
7 16% 21%  
8 5% 5% Last Result
9 0.2% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 12% 99.9% Last Result
5 58% 88% Median
6 28% 30%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 21% 98%  
4 63% 77% Last Result, Median
5 13% 13%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 32 54% 30–33 30–34 29–34 28–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 31 27% 29–32 29–33 28–33 27–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 29 3% 27–31 27–31 26–32 26–33
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 29 3% 27–30 27–31 26–32 25–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 26 0% 25–28 25–28 24–29 23–30
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 26 0% 24–27 24–28 23–28 22–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 25 0% 24–26 23–27 23–28 22–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 25 0% 23–27 23–27 22–27 22–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 25 0% 23–26 23–27 22–27 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 23 0% 21–24 21–25 21–26 20–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 22 0% 21–24 20–24 20–25 19–26
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 21 0% 20–23 19–23 19–24 18–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 20 0% 18–21 18–22 18–22 16–23
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 19 0% 17–20 17–21 17–21 16–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 15 0% 14–17 13–17 13–18 12–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 15 0% 13–16 13–16 13–17 12–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 15 0% 13–16 13–16 12–17 12–17

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.9%  
29 4% 99.3%  
30 13% 96%  
31 29% 83% Median
32 31% 54% Majority
33 16% 23% Last Result
34 5% 7%  
35 1.3% 2%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 1.0% 99.9%  
28 3% 98.9%  
29 15% 96%  
30 26% 81% Median
31 28% 55%  
32 18% 27% Majority
33 6% 9%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.3% 100%  
26 2% 99.7%  
27 10% 97%  
28 27% 88%  
29 33% 61% Median
30 18% 28%  
31 7% 10% Last Result
32 2% 3% Majority
33 0.5% 0.6%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.6% 99.8%  
26 3% 99.2%  
27 8% 96%  
28 16% 88% Last Result, Median
29 45% 72%  
30 19% 27%  
31 5% 8%  
32 2% 3% Majority
33 0.3% 0.3%  
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.8% 99.9% Last Result
24 4% 99.1%  
25 18% 95%  
26 29% 77% Median
27 30% 48%  
28 14% 18%  
29 3% 5%  
30 1.1% 1.3%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.6% 99.9%  
23 4% 99.3%  
24 12% 95%  
25 29% 83% Last Result, Median
26 35% 55%  
27 13% 20%  
28 5% 7%  
29 1.2% 1.5%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.3% 100%  
22 2% 99.7%  
23 6% 98%  
24 16% 92% Last Result, Median
25 44% 76%  
26 22% 31%  
27 6% 9%  
28 3% 3%  
29 0.4% 0.4%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.3% 100%  
22 2% 99.6%  
23 10% 97%  
24 24% 87% Median
25 34% 63%  
26 18% 29% Last Result
27 10% 11%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.7% 100%  
22 4% 99.3%  
23 12% 96%  
24 29% 83% Median
25 31% 55%  
26 16% 24%  
27 5% 8% Last Result
28 2% 2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 2% 99.8%  
21 11% 98%  
22 25% 86%  
23 35% 61% Last Result, Median
24 17% 26%  
25 7% 10%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.4% 0.5%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100%  
19 1.1% 99.9%  
20 7% 98.8%  
21 20% 92%  
22 37% 72% Median
23 23% 35%  
24 9% 12% Last Result
25 3% 3%  
26 0.5% 0.6%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 1.0% 99.9%  
19 6% 98.9%  
20 18% 93%  
21 31% 75% Median
22 28% 44%  
23 12% 16%  
24 3% 4%  
25 0.7% 0.8%  
26 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.5% 99.9%  
17 2% 99.3%  
18 8% 98%  
19 21% 89%  
20 38% 69% Last Result, Median
21 22% 30%  
22 6% 8%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.4% 0.4%  
25 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 2% 99.8%  
17 9% 98%  
18 24% 90% Last Result, Median
19 40% 65%  
20 17% 25%  
21 7% 8%  
22 1.1% 1.2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.6% 100%  
13 5% 99.4%  
14 18% 94%  
15 36% 77% Median
16 27% 41%  
17 11% 14%  
18 2% 3% Last Result
19 0.9% 0.9%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 2% 99.9%  
13 10% 98%  
14 31% 89% Median
15 29% 58%  
16 24% 28%  
17 3% 4% Last Result
18 0.5% 0.5%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 3% 99.8%  
13 15% 97%  
14 30% 82% Median
15 27% 51%  
16 20% 24%  
17 4% 4%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations