Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
Voting Intentions
Last result: 25.2% (General Election of 28 October 2017)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 21.9% | 19.8–24.0% | 19.2–24.4% | 18.7–24.8% | 17.9–25.8% |
| 22–24 September 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
21.4% | 20.7–22.1% | 20.5–22.3% | 20.4–22.5% | 20.1–22.8% |
| 24 September 2021 | Gallup RÚV |
23.4% | 22.6–24.2% | 22.4–24.4% | 22.2–24.6% | 21.9–25.0% |
| 22–23 September 2021 | MMR Morgunblaðið |
22.9% | 21.1–24.7% | 20.7–25.2% | 20.2–25.7% | 19.4–26.6% |
| 15–22 September 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
20.6% | 18.9–22.4% | 18.5–22.9% | 18.0–23.4% | 17.3–24.3% |
| 21–22 September 2021 | MMR Morgunblaðið |
21.8% | 20.1–23.6% | 19.6–24.1% | 19.2–24.6% | 18.4–25.5% |
| 17–21 September 2021 | Prósent Fréttablaðið |
20.1% | 18.7–21.6% | 18.3–22.0% | 18.0–22.4% | 17.3–23.1% |
| 13–19 September 2021 | Gallup RÚV |
21.2% | 20.4–22.1% | 20.1–22.3% | 19.9–22.5% | 19.6–22.9% |
| 15–17 September 2021 | MMR Morgunblaðið |
20.3% | 18.9–21.8% | 18.5–22.2% | 18.2–22.6% | 17.5–23.3% |
| 13–16 September 2021 | Prósent Fréttablaðið |
21.3% | 20.0–22.7% | 19.6–23.1% | 19.3–23.4% | 18.7–24.1% |
| 8–13 September 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
21.0% | 20.1–21.9% | 19.8–22.2% | 19.6–22.5% | 19.2–22.9% |
| 30 August–12 September 2021 | Gallup | 22.0% | 21.0–23.0% | 20.8–23.3% | 20.5–23.5% | 20.1–24.0% |
| 8–10 September 2021 | MMR | 22.3% | 20.6–24.2% | 20.1–24.7% | 19.7–25.1% | 18.9–26.0% |
| 31 August–6 September 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
23.9% | 22.7–25.1% | 22.4–25.5% | 22.1–25.8% | 21.6–26.4% |
| 29 August 2021 | Gallup | 24.2% | 23.1–25.4% | 22.8–25.7% | 22.5–26.0% | 22.0–26.5% |
| 24 August 2021 | MMR | 23.8% | 22.1–25.7% | 21.6–26.3% | 21.2–26.7% | 20.4–27.6% |
| 13–23 August 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
23.3% | 21.5–25.3% | 21.0–25.8% | 20.6–26.3% | 19.7–27.3% |
| 29 July–15 August 2021 | Gallup | 24.5% | 23.8–25.2% | 23.6–25.4% | 23.5–25.6% | 23.1–25.9% |
| 1–31 July 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
20.9% | 19.2–22.8% | 18.8–23.3% | 18.4–23.7% | 17.6–24.6% |
| 30 June–28 July 2021 | Gallup | 24.1% | 23.2–25.0% | 23.0–25.3% | 22.8–25.5% | 22.4–25.9% |
| 15–23 July 2021 | Prósent Fréttablaðið |
23.6% | 22.6–24.7% | 22.3–25.0% | 22.0–25.3% | 21.5–25.8% |
| 24 June–6 July 2021 | MMR | 25.4% | 24.2–26.6% | 23.8–27.0% | 23.5–27.3% | 23.0–27.9% |
| 1–30 June 2021 | Maskína | 23.8% | 22.0–25.7% | 21.5–26.2% | 21.1–26.7% | 20.3–27.6% |
| 1–29 June 2021 | Gallup | 24.1% | 23.3–25.0% | 23.0–25.2% | 22.8–25.4% | 22.5–25.8% |
| 4–14 June 2021 | MMR | 27.0% | 25.3–28.9% | 24.8–29.4% | 24.3–29.9% | 23.5–30.8% |
| 25 May–1 June 2021 | MMR | 24.6% | 22.9–26.5% | 22.4–27.0% | 22.0–27.4% | 21.2–28.3% |
| 1–31 May 2021 | Gallup | 23.5% | 22.3–24.8% | 21.9–25.2% | 21.7–25.5% | 21.1–26.1% |
| 7–12 May 2021 | MMR | 25.6% | 23.9–27.5% | 23.4–28.0% | 22.9–28.5% | 22.1–29.4% |
| 1–30 April 2021 | Gallup | 23.8% | 22.6–25.1% | 22.2–25.4% | 21.9–25.8% | 21.3–26.4% |
| 21–28 April 2021 | MMR | 28.8% | 26.9–30.7% | 26.4–31.2% | 26.0–31.7% | 25.1–32.7% |
| 29 March–7 April 2021 | MMR | 23.1% | 21.4–24.9% | 20.9–25.4% | 20.5–25.9% | 19.7–26.8% |
| 1–29 March 2021 | Gallup | 23.0% | 22.3–23.8% | 22.1–24.0% | 21.9–24.2% | 21.6–24.5% |
| 5–10 March 2021 | MMR | 21.0% | 19.4–22.8% | 18.9–23.3% | 18.6–23.7% | 17.8–24.6% |
| 1–28 February 2021 | Gallup | 22.9% | 22.1–23.7% | 21.9–23.9% | 21.7–24.1% | 21.4–24.5% |
| 12–18 February 2021 | MMR | 22.2% | 20.5–24.0% | 20.0–24.6% | 19.6–25.0% | 18.8–25.9% |
| 6–31 January 2021 | Gallup | 22.7% | 21.9–23.5% | 21.7–23.7% | 21.5–23.9% | 21.1–24.3% |
| 30 December 2020–11 January 2021 | MMR | 24.4% | 23.2–25.6% | 22.8–26.0% | 22.5–26.3% | 22.0–26.9% |
| 1 December 2020–3 January 2021 | Gallup | 23.7% | 23.0–24.5% | 22.8–24.7% | 22.7–24.9% | 22.3–25.2% |
| 11–19 December 2020 | Zenter | 22.9% | 21.4–24.4% | 21.0–24.8% | 20.7–25.2% | 20.0–26.0% |
| 26 November–3 December 2020 | MMR | 27.1% | 25.3–29.0% | 24.8–29.6% | 24.4–30.0% | 23.5–31.0% |
| 2–30 November 2020 | Gallup | 23.7% | 23.0–24.5% | 22.8–24.7% | 22.6–24.9% | 22.2–25.3% |
| 6–11 November 2020 | MMR | 25.0% | 23.2–26.9% | 22.7–27.4% | 22.3–27.9% | 21.5–28.8% |
| 30 September–1 November 2020 | Gallup | 23.6% | 22.9–24.3% | 22.7–24.5% | 22.5–24.7% | 22.2–25.0% |
| 23–28 October 2020 | MMR | 21.9% | 20.2–23.7% | 19.7–24.2% | 19.3–24.6% | 18.6–25.5% |
| 1–30 September 2020 | Gallup | 23.9% | 23.2–24.7% | 23.0–24.9% | 22.8–25.1% | 22.5–25.5% |
| 24–28 September 2020 | Maskína | 22.8% | 21.0–24.6% | 20.5–25.2% | 20.1–25.6% | 19.3–26.6% |
| 10–23 September 2020 | MMR | 25.6% | 24.4–26.9% | 24.1–27.2% | 23.8–27.5% | 23.2–28.2% |
| 26 August–2 September 2020 | MMR | 24.0% | 22.3–25.9% | 21.8–26.4% | 21.4–26.9% | 20.6–27.8% |
| 4–31 August 2020 | Gallup | 22.8% | 22.1–23.6% | 21.8–23.8% | 21.7–24.0% | 21.3–24.4% |
| 23–28 July 2020 | MMR | 24.0% | 22.3–25.8% | 21.8–26.3% | 21.4–26.8% | 20.6–27.7% |
| 2–30 June 2020 | Gallup | 24.0% | 23.3–24.8% | 23.1–25.0% | 22.9–25.2% | 22.5–25.5% |
| 16–19 June 2020 | MMR | 24.3% | 22.7–26.1% | 22.2–26.6% | 21.8–27.0% | 21.0–27.9% |
| 4 May–1 June 2020 | Gallup | 24.7% | 23.9–25.4% | 23.7–25.6% | 23.6–25.8% | 23.2–26.1% |
| 19–25 May 2020 | MMR | 23.5% | 21.9–25.3% | 21.4–25.8% | 21.0–26.3% | 20.2–27.1% |
| 30 March–3 May 2020 | Gallup | 25.2% | 24.4–25.9% | 24.3–26.1% | 24.1–26.2% | 23.8–26.6% |
| 15–17 April 2020 | MMR | 22.6% | 21.0–24.4% | 20.6–24.8% | 20.2–25.3% | 19.5–26.1% |
| 3–7 April 2020 | MMR | 23.5% | 21.8–25.3% | 21.4–25.8% | 21.0–26.2% | 20.2–27.1% |
| 2–29 March 2020 | Gallup | 23.5% | 22.8–24.2% | 22.6–24.4% | 22.4–24.6% | 22.1–25.0% |
| 18–20 March 2020 | MMR | 27.8% | 26.0–29.6% | 25.5–30.1% | 25.1–30.6% | 24.3–31.5% |
| 3 February–1 March 2020 | Gallup | 21.6% | 20.8–22.4% | 20.6–22.7% | 20.4–22.9% | 20.0–23.3% |
| 6–10 February 2020 | MMR | 22.0% | 20.4–23.8% | 20.0–24.3% | 19.6–24.7% | 18.8–25.6% |
| 3 January–2 February 2020 | Gallup | 21.7% | 20.9–22.5% | 20.7–22.7% | 20.5–22.9% | 20.2–23.3% |
| 28 January 2020 | MMR | 19.0% | 17.4–20.8% | 17.0–21.3% | 16.6–21.7% | 15.9–22.6% |
| 3–13 January 2020 | MMR | 20.3% | 19.2–21.5% | 18.9–21.8% | 18.6–22.1% | 18.1–22.7% |
| 2 December 2019–1 January 2020 | Gallup | 22.8% | 22.0–23.6% | 21.8–23.9% | 21.6–24.1% | 21.2–24.4% |
| 13–19 December 2019 | MMR | 20.0% | 18.5–21.7% | 18.0–22.2% | 17.7–22.6% | 17.0–23.4% |
| 28 October–1 December 2019 | Gallup | 21.7% | 21.1–22.4% | 20.9–22.6% | 20.7–22.8% | 20.4–23.1% |
| 15–22 November 2019 | MMR | 18.1% | 16.6–19.7% | 16.2–20.1% | 15.9–20.5% | 15.2–21.3% |
| 30 September–27 October 2019 | Gallup | 22.8% | 22.1–23.5% | 21.8–23.7% | 21.7–23.9% | 21.3–24.3% |
| 21–25 October 2019 | MMR | 21.1% | 19.5–22.8% | 19.0–23.3% | 18.6–23.8% | 17.9–24.6% |
| 10–14 October 2019 | Zenter | 19.7% | 18.3–21.2% | 17.9–21.6% | 17.6–22.0% | 16.9–22.8% |
| 30 September–9 October 2019 | MMR | 19.8% | 18.7–21.0% | 18.4–21.3% | 18.2–21.6% | 17.7–22.1% |
| 1–30 September 2019 | Gallup | 23.6% | 22.3–24.9% | 22.0–25.2% | 21.7–25.5% | 21.1–26.2% |
| 9–16 September 2019 | MMR | 18.3% | 16.8–19.9% | 16.4–20.3% | 16.0–20.7% | 15.4–21.5% |
| 29 July–1 September 2019 | Gallup | 21.7% | 20.9–22.6% | 20.7–22.8% | 20.5–23.0% | 20.1–23.4% |
| 12–19 August 2019 | MMR | 19.1% | 17.6–20.8% | 17.1–21.2% | 16.8–21.7% | 16.0–22.5% |
| 1–31 July 2019 | Gallup | 21.7% | 20.5–22.9% | 20.1–23.3% | 19.9–23.6% | 19.3–24.2% |
| 24–26 July 2019 | Zenter | 20.4% | 18.8–22.3% | 18.3–22.8% | 17.9–23.2% | 17.2–24.1% |
| 4–17 July 2019 | MMR | 19.0% | 17.9–20.2% | 17.6–20.5% | 17.4–20.8% | 16.9–21.3% |
| 31 May–30 June 2019 | Gallup | 23.7% | 22.7–24.7% | 22.5–25.0% | 22.2–25.2% | 21.8–25.7% |
| 7–14 June 2019 | MMR | 22.2% | 20.5–23.9% | 20.1–24.4% | 19.7–24.9% | 18.9–25.7% |
| 3–30 May 2019 | Gallup | 23.4% | 22.5–24.4% | 22.2–24.6% | 22.0–24.9% | 21.6–25.3% |
| 23–29 May 2019 | MMR | 21.5% | 19.8–23.3% | 19.3–23.8% | 18.9–24.2% | 18.2–25.1% |
| 14–16 May 2019 | MMR | 21.3% | 19.7–23.0% | 19.2–23.5% | 18.8–23.9% | 18.1–24.8% |
| 30 April–3 May 2019 | MMR | 20.2% | 18.6–21.9% | 18.1–22.5% | 17.8–22.9% | 17.0–23.7% |
| 5–30 April 2019 | Gallup | 23.6% | 22.6–24.6% | 22.4–24.9% | 22.1–25.2% | 21.7–25.7% |
| 13 April 2019 | MMR | 22.5% | 20.8–24.4% | 20.3–24.9% | 19.9–25.4% | 19.1–26.3% |
| 4–9 April 2019 | MMR | 21.7% | 20.0–23.5% | 19.6–24.0% | 19.2–24.5% | 18.4–25.4% |
| 1–31 March 2019 | Gallup | 25.0% | 24.1–25.9% | 23.9–26.2% | 23.6–26.4% | 23.2–26.9% |
| 11–14 March 2019 | MMR | 23.6% | 22.0–25.4% | 21.5–25.9% | 21.1–26.3% | 20.3–27.2% |
| 31 January–28 February 2019 | Gallup | 25.0% | 24.1–25.9% | 23.9–26.2% | 23.6–26.4% | 23.2–26.8% |
| 11–15 February 2019 | MMR | 22.7% | 21.0–24.5% | 20.5–25.0% | 20.1–25.5% | 19.3–26.4% |
| 7–31 January 2019 | Gallup | 23.4% | 22.3–24.6% | 22.0–24.9% | 21.7–25.2% | 21.2–25.7% |
| 28 January 2019 | MMR | 21.8% | 20.1–23.6% | 19.6–24.1% | 19.2–24.6% | 18.4–25.5% |
| 4–14 January 2019 | MMR | 22.2% | 21.1–23.4% | 20.8–23.8% | 20.5–24.1% | 20.0–24.6% |
| 3 December 2018–1 January 2019 | Gallup | 22.7% | 21.7–23.7% | 21.4–24.0% | 21.2–24.3% | 20.7–24.8% |
| 5–11 December 2018 | MMR | 22.1% | 20.4–23.8% | 20.0–24.3% | 19.6–24.8% | 18.8–25.6% |
| 3–4 December 2018 | Zenter | 21.4% | 20.0–23.0% | 19.6–23.4% | 19.2–23.8% | 18.6–24.5% |
| 30 November–3 December 2018 | Maskína | 19.3% | 18.0–20.8% | 17.6–21.2% | 17.3–21.5% | 16.6–22.2% |
| 3 November–2 December 2018 | Gallup | 23.5% | 22.6–24.5% | 22.3–24.8% | 22.1–25.0% | 21.6–25.5% |
| 21 November 2018 | MMR | 21.1% | 19.4–22.9% | 19.0–23.4% | 18.6–23.9% | 17.8–24.8% |
| 8–12 November 2018 | MMR | 19.8% | 18.3–21.5% | 17.9–22.0% | 17.5–22.4% | 16.8–23.2% |
| 2–31 October 2018 | Gallup | 25.8% | 24.9–26.8% | 24.6–27.1% | 24.4–27.3% | 23.9–27.8% |
| 22 October 2018 | MMR | 20.8% | 19.1–22.6% | 18.7–23.1% | 18.3–23.5% | 17.5–24.4% |
| 3–9 October 2018 | MMR | 20.8% | 19.2–22.6% | 18.7–23.2% | 18.4–23.6% | 17.6–24.5% |
| 3 September–1 October 2018 | Gallup | 24.6% | 23.6–25.7% | 23.3–25.9% | 23.1–26.2% | 22.6–26.7% |
| 7–12 September 2018 | MMR | 21.3% | 19.7–23.1% | 19.2–23.6% | 18.8–24.0% | 18.1–24.9% |
| 2 August–2 September 2018 | Gallup | 22.7% | 21.8–23.6% | 21.6–23.9% | 21.4–24.1% | 21.0–24.5% |
| 10 August 2018 | MMR | 22.1% | 20.4–23.9% | 19.9–24.4% | 19.5–24.9% | 18.7–25.8% |
| 29 June–30 July 2018 | Gallup | 24.6% | 23.7–25.5% | 23.4–25.8% | 23.2–26.0% | 22.8–26.5% |
| 31 May–1 July 2018 | Gallup | 24.5% | 23.6–25.5% | 23.3–25.8% | 23.1–26.0% | 22.6–26.5% |
| 12–18 June 2018 | MMR | 21.6% | 20.0–23.4% | 19.5–23.9% | 19.1–24.4% | 18.3–25.3% |
| 2–31 May 2018 | Gallup | 23.8% | 23.0–24.7% | 22.7–24.9% | 22.5–25.1% | 22.1–25.5% |
| 16–22 May 2018 | MMR | 23.7% | 22.0–25.5% | 21.5–26.1% | 21.1–26.5% | 20.3–27.4% |
| 2 May 2018 | MMR | 24.5% | 22.7–26.4% | 22.3–26.9% | 21.8–27.4% | 21.0–28.3% |
| 27 March–29 April 2018 | Gallup | 25.3% | 24.4–26.2% | 24.2–26.5% | 24.0–26.7% | 23.5–27.1% |
| 13–19 April 2018 | MMR | 24.0% | 22.2–25.8% | 21.7–26.4% | 21.3–26.8% | 20.5–27.8% |
| 1–26 March 2018 | Gallup | 24.5% | 23.5–25.5% | 23.2–25.8% | 23.0–26.0% | 22.6–26.5% |
| 19 March 2018 | MMR | 25.3% | 23.5–27.2% | 23.0–27.7% | 22.6–28.2% | 21.7–29.1% |
| 1–28 February 2018 | Gallup | 23.5% | 22.5–24.5% | 22.2–24.8% | 22.0–25.0% | 21.6–25.5% |
| 4–31 January 2018 | Gallup | 25.5% | 24.5–26.5% | 24.2–26.8% | 24.0–27.1% | 23.5–27.6% |
| 25–30 January 2018 | MMR | 22.3% | 20.6–24.1% | 20.1–24.6% | 19.7–25.1% | 19.0–26.0% |
| 9–17 January 2018 | MMR | 25.8% | 24.5–27.3% | 24.1–27.7% | 23.8–28.0% | 23.1–28.7% |
| 30 November–28 December 2017 | Gallup | 25.1% | 24.2–26.0% | 24.0–26.3% | 23.8–26.5% | 23.4–26.9% |
| 12–15 December 2017 | MMR | 23.2% | 21.5–25.0% | 21.0–25.6% | 20.6–26.0% | 19.8–26.9% |
| 4 December 2017 | Fréttablaðið/Stöð 2/Vísir | 26.4% | 24.4–28.4% | 23.9–29.0% | 23.4–29.5% | 22.5–30.5% |
| 4 December 2017 | Fréttablaðið, Stöð 2 and Vísir | 26.4% | 24.4–28.4% | 23.9–29.0% | 23.4–29.5% | 22.5–30.5% |
| 8–30 November 2017 | Gallup | 24.0% | 22.9–25.2% | 22.6–25.5% | 22.3–25.8% | 21.8–26.4% |
| 14–17 November 2017 | MMR | 24.4% | 22.6–26.2% | 22.1–26.7% | 21.7–27.2% | 20.9–28.1% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 6% | 98% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 11% | 92% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 23% | 82% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 20% | 58% | Median |
| 22.5–23.5% | 21% | 39% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 14% | 18% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 25.5–26.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 16 seats (General Election of 28 October 2017)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 14 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 12–19 |
| 22–24 September 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
14 | 13–14 | 13–14 | 13–15 | 13–15 |
| 24 September 2021 | Gallup RÚV |
17 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 14–18 | 14–18 |
| 22–23 September 2021 | MMR Morgunblaðið |
15 | 13–18 | 13–19 | 13–19 | 13–19 |
| 15–22 September 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
13 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 12–16 | 12–18 |
| 21–22 September 2021 | MMR Morgunblaðið |
14 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 12–18 |
| 17–21 September 2021 | Prósent Fréttablaðið |
13 | 13–14 | 13–15 | 12–15 | 12–16 |
| 13–19 September 2021 | Gallup RÚV |
14 | 13–14 | 13–14 | 13–15 | 13–15 |
| 15–17 September 2021 | MMR Morgunblaðið |
13 | 13–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 |
| 13–16 September 2021 | Prósent Fréttablaðið |
14 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 |
| 8–13 September 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
14 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 13–16 |
| 30 August–12 September 2021 | Gallup | 15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 13–17 |
| 8–10 September 2021 | MMR | 15 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 13–19 |
| 31 August–6 September 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
16 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–18 | 15–18 |
| 29 August 2021 | Gallup | 16 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 14–19 | 14–19 |
| 24 August 2021 | MMR | 17 | 15–19 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 13–19 |
| 13–23 August 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
16 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 13–19 |
| 29 July–15 August 2021 | Gallup | 16 | 16–17 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 15–19 |
| 1–31 July 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
15 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 |
| 30 June–28 July 2021 | Gallup | 17 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 15–18 |
| 15–23 July 2021 | Prósent Fréttablaðið |
16 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 14–19 |
| 24 June–6 July 2021 | MMR | 18 | 18–19 | 17–19 | 16–19 | 15–20 |
| 1–30 June 2021 | Maskína | 17 | 16–18 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 14–20 |
| 1–29 June 2021 | Gallup | 16 | 16–17 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 15–19 |
| 4–14 June 2021 | MMR | 19 | 18–20 | 18–21 | 17–21 | 16–22 |
| 25 May–1 June 2021 | MMR | 18 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 14–20 |
| 1–31 May 2021 | Gallup | 16 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 14–19 | 14–19 |
| 7–12 May 2021 | MMR | 18 | 17–19 | 16–20 | 15–20 | 15–21 |
| 1–30 April 2021 | Gallup | 17 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 14–18 | 14–19 |
| 21–28 April 2021 | MMR | 20 | 19–22 | 19–23 | 18–24 | 17–24 |
| 29 March–7 April 2021 | MMR | 16 | 15–18 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 13–19 |
| 1–29 March 2021 | Gallup | 16 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 14–18 |
| 5–10 March 2021 | MMR | 14 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 12–16 | 12–17 |
| 1–28 February 2021 | Gallup | 15 | 15–16 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 14–17 |
| 12–18 February 2021 | MMR | 16 | 14–17 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 13–19 |
| 6–31 January 2021 | Gallup | 16 | 15–16 | 15–16 | 15–17 | 15–17 |
| 30 December 2020–11 January 2021 | MMR | 18 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–19 |
| 1 December 2020–3 January 2021 | Gallup | 17 | 16–17 | 16–17 | 16–17 | 16–18 |
| 11–19 December 2020 | Zenter | 16 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 14–20 |
| 26 November–3 December 2020 | MMR | 20 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 17–22 | 17–23 |
| 2–30 November 2020 | Gallup | 17 | 16–17 | 16–17 | 16–17 | 15–18 |
| 6–11 November 2020 | MMR | 18 | 16–19 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–21 |
| 30 September–1 November 2020 | Gallup | 16 | 16–17 | 16–17 | 15–17 | 15–17 |
| 23–28 October 2020 | MMR | 15 | 14–17 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 13–18 |
| 1–30 September 2020 | Gallup | 17 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 15–18 |
| 24–28 September 2020 | Maskína | 15 | 14–16 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 13–18 |
| 10–23 September 2020 | MMR | 18 | 18–19 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–20 |
| 26 August–2 September 2020 | MMR | 17 | 16–19 | 15–19 | 15–20 | 14–21 |
| 4–31 August 2020 | Gallup | 16 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–17 |
| 23–28 July 2020 | MMR | 17 | 16–19 | 15–19 | 15–20 | 14–21 |
| 2–30 June 2020 | Gallup | 17 | 16–17 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 15–18 |
| 16–19 June 2020 | MMR | 18 | 16–19 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 15–21 |
| 4 May–1 June 2020 | Gallup | 17 | 17–18 | 17–18 | 17–18 | 16–18 |
| 19–25 May 2020 | MMR | 17 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 14–20 |
| 30 March–3 May 2020 | Gallup | 18 | 17–18 | 17–18 | 17–19 | 17–19 |
| 15–17 April 2020 | MMR | 16 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 13–19 |
| 3–7 April 2020 | MMR | 17 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 14–18 | 14–19 |
| 2–29 March 2020 | Gallup | 16 | 16 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–17 |
| 18–20 March 2020 | MMR | 20 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 17–22 | 17–23 |
| 3 February–1 March 2020 | Gallup | 15 | 15–16 | 15–16 | 14–16 | 14–17 |
| 6–10 February 2020 | MMR | 15 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–18 | 13–18 |
| 3 January–2 February 2020 | Gallup | 15 | 15–16 | 14–16 | 14–16 | 14–16 |
| 28 January 2020 | MMR | 13 | 12–15 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 11–16 |
| 3–13 January 2020 | MMR | 14 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 13–16 |
| 2 December 2019–1 January 2020 | Gallup | 16 | 15–16 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 14–17 |
| 13–19 December 2019 | MMR | 14 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–16 | 11–16 |
| 28 October–1 December 2019 | Gallup | 15 | 14–15 | 14–16 | 14–16 | 14–16 |
| 15–22 November 2019 | MMR | 13 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–14 |
| 30 September–27 October 2019 | Gallup | 15 | 15–16 | 15–16 | 14–16 | 14–17 |
| 21–25 October 2019 | MMR | 14 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 12–16 | 12–17 |
| 10–14 October 2019 | Zenter | 13 | 13–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 |
| 30 September–9 October 2019 | MMR | 13 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 12–15 | 12–16 |
| 1–30 September 2019 | Gallup | 16 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–18 | 14–18 |
| 9–16 September 2019 | MMR | 12 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–15 |
| 29 July–1 September 2019 | Gallup | 15 | 14–16 | 14–16 | 14–16 | 14–16 |
| 12–19 August 2019 | MMR | 13 | 12–14 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 |
| 1–31 July 2019 | Gallup | 15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 13–16 |
| 24–26 July 2019 | Zenter | 14 | 13–15 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 12–17 |
| 4–17 July 2019 | MMR | 13 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 12–15 | 11–15 |
| 31 May–30 June 2019 | Gallup | 17 | 16–17 | 16–18 | 15–18 | 15–18 |
| 7–14 June 2019 | MMR | 15 | 14–17 | 14–18 | 13–18 | 13–18 |
| 3–30 May 2019 | Gallup | 16 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–18 |
| 23–29 May 2019 | MMR | 15 | 14–16 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 12–18 |
| 14–16 May 2019 | MMR | 14 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 12–16 | 12–17 |
| 30 April–3 May 2019 | MMR | 14 | 13–16 | 12–16 | 12–17 | 11–17 |
| 5–30 April 2019 | Gallup | 16 | 16–17 | 16–17 | 16–17 | 15–18 |
| 13 April 2019 | MMR | 16 | 14–17 | 14–18 | 13–18 | 13–19 |
| 4–9 April 2019 | MMR | 15 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 13–18 |
| 1–31 March 2019 | Gallup | 18 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 16–19 |
| 11–14 March 2019 | MMR | 17 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 14–19 | 14–19 |
| 31 January–28 February 2019 | Gallup | 17 | 17–18 | 17–19 | 16–19 | 16–19 |
| 11–15 February 2019 | MMR | 15 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–18 | 13–19 |
| 7–31 January 2019 | Gallup | 16 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 14–19 |
| 28 January 2019 | MMR | 14 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 12–18 |
| 4–14 January 2019 | MMR | 15 | 14–16 | 14–16 | 13–16 | 13–17 |
| 3 December 2018–1 January 2019 | Gallup | 15 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 14–17 |
| 5–11 December 2018 | MMR | 15 | 14–16 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 13–18 |
| 3–4 December 2018 | Zenter | 15 | 14–16 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 13–17 |
| 30 November–3 December 2018 | Maskína | 13 | 12–14 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–15 |
| 3 November–2 December 2018 | Gallup | 15 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 14–18 |
| 21 November 2018 | MMR | 14 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 12–16 | 12–16 |
| 8–12 November 2018 | MMR | 13 | 12–14 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–15 |
| 2–31 October 2018 | Gallup | 18 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 16–19 | 16–20 |
| 22 October 2018 | MMR | 14 | 13–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 |
| 3–9 October 2018 | MMR | 14 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 12–16 | 12–17 |
| 3 September–1 October 2018 | Gallup | 17 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–18 | 15–18 |
| 7–12 September 2018 | MMR | 14 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 12–16 | 12–17 |
| 2 August–2 September 2018 | Gallup | 15 | 14–16 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 14–17 |
| 10 August 2018 | MMR | 15 | 14–16 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 13–18 |
| 29 June–30 July 2018 | Gallup | 17 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 15–18 | 15–19 |
| 31 May–1 July 2018 | Gallup | 18 | 16–18 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–19 |
| 12–18 June 2018 | MMR | 14 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 12–16 | 12–17 |
| 2–31 May 2018 | Gallup | 16 | 16–17 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–18 |
| 16–22 May 2018 | MMR | 16 | 15–18 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 13–19 |
| 2 May 2018 | MMR | 16 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 14–18 | 14–19 |
| 27 March–29 April 2018 | Gallup | 18 | 17–18 | 17–19 | 16–19 | 16–19 |
| 13–19 April 2018 | MMR | 16 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 14–18 | 14–19 |
| 1–26 March 2018 | Gallup | 17 | 16–17 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 15–18 |
| 19 March 2018 | MMR | 17 | 16–18 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 15–20 |
| 1–28 February 2018 | Gallup | 16 | 15–16 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 14–18 |
| 4–31 January 2018 | Gallup | 17 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–19 |
| 25–30 January 2018 | MMR | 15 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–17 | 13–18 |
| 9–17 January 2018 | MMR | 18 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–19 |
| 30 November–28 December 2017 | Gallup | 17 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 15–19 |
| 12–15 December 2017 | MMR | 16 | 15–18 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 13–19 |
| 4 December 2017 | Fréttablaðið/Stöð 2/Vísir | 18 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 | 15–21 |
| 4 December 2017 | Fréttablaðið, Stöð 2 and Vísir | 18 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 | 15–22 |
| 8–30 November 2017 | Gallup | 16 | 15–17 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 14–19 |
| 14–17 November 2017 | MMR | 16 | 15–17 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 14–19 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 26% | 99.0% | |
| 14 | 29% | 73% | Median |
| 15 | 14% | 44% | |
| 16 | 9% | 30% | Last Result |
| 17 | 13% | 21% | |
| 18 | 6% | 7% | |
| 19 | 2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |