Framsóknarflokkurinn
Voting Intentions
Last result: 10.7% (General Election of 28 October 2017)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 15.1% | 12.0–16.7% | 11.5–17.5% | 11.1–18.0% | 10.5–19.0% |
| 22–24 September 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
15.4% | 14.8–16.0% | 14.6–16.2% | 14.5–16.4% | 14.2–16.6% |
| 24 September 2021 | Gallup RÚV |
14.9% | 14.3–15.6% | 14.1–15.8% | 13.9–15.9% | 13.6–16.3% |
| 22–23 September 2021 | MMR Morgunblaðið |
16.4% | 14.9–18.0% | 14.5–18.5% | 14.1–18.9% | 13.4–19.7% |
| 15–22 September 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
13.4% | 12.0–15.0% | 11.7–15.5% | 11.3–15.8% | 10.7–16.6% |
| 21–22 September 2021 | MMR Morgunblaðið |
14.3% | 12.9–15.9% | 12.5–16.3% | 12.2–16.7% | 11.5–17.5% |
| 17–21 September 2021 | Prósent Fréttablaðið |
12.2% | 11.1–13.5% | 10.8–13.9% | 10.5–14.2% | 10.0–14.8% |
| 13–19 September 2021 | Gallup RÚV |
13.2% | 12.5–13.9% | 12.3–14.1% | 12.2–14.3% | 11.9–14.7% |
| 15–17 September 2021 | MMR Morgunblaðið |
12.7% | 11.6–14.0% | 11.3–14.4% | 11.0–14.7% | 10.5–15.3% |
| 13–16 September 2021 | Prósent Fréttablaðið |
12.6% | 11.6–13.8% | 11.2–14.1% | 11.0–14.4% | 10.5–15.0% |
| 8–13 September 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
12.0% | 11.3–12.8% | 11.1–13.0% | 10.9–13.2% | 10.6–13.6% |
| 30 August–12 September 2021 | Gallup | 12.9% | 12.1–13.7% | 11.9–13.9% | 11.7–14.1% | 11.4–14.5% |
| 8–10 September 2021 | MMR | 14.9% | 13.5–16.6% | 13.1–17.0% | 12.8–17.4% | 12.1–18.2% |
| 31 August–6 September 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
11.5% | 10.6–12.4% | 10.4–12.7% | 10.2–12.9% | 9.8–13.4% |
| 29 August 2021 | Gallup | 9.7% | 9.0–10.5% | 8.7–10.8% | 8.6–11.0% | 8.2–11.4% |
| 24 August 2021 | MMR | 12.5% | 11.2–14.0% | 10.9–14.5% | 10.5–14.8% | 9.9–15.6% |
| 13–23 August 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
12.6% | 11.3–14.2% | 10.9–14.7% | 10.5–15.1% | 9.9–15.9% |
| 29 July–15 August 2021 | Gallup | 10.4% | 9.9–10.9% | 9.8–11.1% | 9.7–11.2% | 9.4–11.4% |
| 1–31 July 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
9.9% | 8.7–11.3% | 8.4–11.7% | 8.1–12.1% | 7.6–12.8% |
| 30 June–28 July 2021 | Gallup | 11.9% | 11.2–12.6% | 11.1–12.8% | 10.9–13.0% | 10.6–13.3% |
| 15–23 July 2021 | Prósent Fréttablaðið |
10.6% | 9.9–11.4% | 9.7–11.7% | 9.5–11.9% | 9.1–12.3% |
| 24 June–6 July 2021 | MMR | 12.3% | 11.4–13.3% | 11.2–13.6% | 10.9–13.8% | 10.5–14.3% |
| 1–30 June 2021 | Maskína | 11.4% | 10.1–12.9% | 9.7–13.3% | 9.4–13.7% | 8.9–14.4% |
| 1–29 June 2021 | Gallup | 10.3% | 9.7–10.9% | 9.6–11.1% | 9.4–11.3% | 9.2–11.6% |
| 4–14 June 2021 | MMR | 8.8% | 7.8–10.1% | 7.5–10.5% | 7.2–10.8% | 6.7–11.4% |
| 25 May–1 June 2021 | MMR | 12.5% | 11.2–14.0% | 10.9–14.4% | 10.6–14.8% | 10.0–15.5% |
| 1–31 May 2021 | Gallup | 10.4% | 9.5–11.4% | 9.3–11.6% | 9.1–11.9% | 8.7–12.3% |
| 7–12 May 2021 | MMR | 12.6% | 11.3–14.1% | 10.9–14.5% | 10.6–14.9% | 10.0–15.6% |
| 1–30 April 2021 | Gallup | 10.1% | 9.2–11.0% | 9.0–11.3% | 8.8–11.5% | 8.4–12.0% |
| 21–28 April 2021 | MMR | 10.6% | 9.4–12.0% | 9.1–12.3% | 8.8–12.7% | 8.2–13.4% |
| 29 March–7 April 2021 | MMR | 11.5% | 10.2–12.9% | 9.9–13.3% | 9.6–13.7% | 9.0–14.4% |
| 1–29 March 2021 | Gallup | 11.1% | 10.6–11.7% | 10.4–11.8% | 10.3–12.0% | 10.0–12.3% |
| 5–10 March 2021 | MMR | 12.7% | 11.4–14.2% | 11.1–14.6% | 10.8–15.0% | 10.2–15.7% |
| 1–28 February 2021 | Gallup | 10.3% | 9.8–10.9% | 9.6–11.1% | 9.5–11.2% | 9.2–11.5% |
| 12–18 February 2021 | MMR | 11.4% | 10.2–12.9% | 9.8–13.3% | 9.5–13.6% | 9.0–14.4% |
| 6–31 January 2021 | Gallup | 9.5% | 8.9–10.1% | 8.8–10.2% | 8.7–10.4% | 8.4–10.6% |
| 30 December 2020–11 January 2021 | MMR | 9.1% | 8.3–10.0% | 8.1–10.2% | 7.9–10.4% | 7.5–10.9% |
| 1 December 2020–3 January 2021 | Gallup | 8.3% | 7.8–8.8% | 7.7–8.9% | 7.6–9.1% | 7.4–9.3% |
| 11–19 December 2020 | Zenter | 7.3% | 6.4–8.3% | 6.2–8.6% | 6.0–8.8% | 5.6–9.3% |
| 26 November–3 December 2020 | MMR | 7.5% | 6.5–8.7% | 6.2–9.1% | 6.0–9.4% | 5.6–10.0% |
| 2–30 November 2020 | Gallup | 8.6% | 8.1–9.1% | 8.0–9.3% | 7.8–9.4% | 7.6–9.7% |
| 6–11 November 2020 | MMR | 9.9% | 8.8–11.3% | 8.5–11.7% | 8.2–12.0% | 7.7–12.7% |
| 30 September–1 November 2020 | Gallup | 7.7% | 7.3–8.2% | 7.2–8.3% | 7.1–8.4% | 6.9–8.7% |
| 23–28 October 2020 | MMR | 10.2% | 9.0–11.6% | 8.7–11.9% | 8.4–12.3% | 7.9–13.0% |
| 1–30 September 2020 | Gallup | 6.7% | 6.3–7.2% | 6.2–7.3% | 6.1–7.4% | 5.9–7.7% |
| 24–28 September 2020 | Maskína | 7.8% | 6.8–9.1% | 6.5–9.5% | 6.2–9.8% | 5.8–10.5% |
| 10–23 September 2020 | MMR | 8.3% | 7.6–9.2% | 7.4–9.4% | 7.2–9.6% | 6.9–10.0% |
| 26 August–2 September 2020 | MMR | 8.9% | 7.8–10.2% | 7.5–10.6% | 7.3–10.9% | 6.8–11.6% |
| 4–31 August 2020 | Gallup | 7.9% | 7.4–8.4% | 7.3–8.6% | 7.2–8.7% | 7.0–8.9% |
| 23–28 July 2020 | MMR | 8.6% | 7.6–9.9% | 7.3–10.3% | 7.0–10.6% | 6.5–11.2% |
| 2–30 June 2020 | Gallup | 8.6% | 8.1–9.1% | 8.0–9.3% | 7.9–9.4% | 7.7–9.6% |
| 16–19 June 2020 | MMR | 6.1% | 5.3–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–7.7% | 4.5–8.3% |
| 4 May–1 June 2020 | Gallup | 7.7% | 7.3–8.2% | 7.2–8.3% | 7.1–8.4% | 6.9–8.7% |
| 19–25 May 2020 | MMR | 6.4% | 5.5–7.5% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.1–8.1% | 4.7–8.7% |
| 30 March–3 May 2020 | Gallup | 8.4% | 8.0–8.9% | 7.8–9.0% | 7.8–9.1% | 7.5–9.4% |
| 15–17 April 2020 | MMR | 9.8% | 8.7–11.1% | 8.4–11.4% | 8.1–11.8% | 7.7–12.4% |
| 3–7 April 2020 | MMR | 8.8% | 7.8–10.1% | 7.5–10.4% | 7.2–10.7% | 6.7–11.4% |
| 2–29 March 2020 | Gallup | 8.1% | 7.7–8.6% | 7.5–8.7% | 7.4–8.8% | 7.2–9.1% |
| 18–20 March 2020 | MMR | 8.2% | 7.2–9.4% | 6.9–9.8% | 6.7–10.1% | 6.2–10.7% |
| 3 February–1 March 2020 | Gallup | 6.9% | 6.4–7.4% | 6.3–7.6% | 6.2–7.7% | 5.9–7.9% |
| 6–10 February 2020 | MMR | 6.8% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.6–8.2% | 5.4–8.5% | 5.0–9.1% |
| 3 January–2 February 2020 | Gallup | 7.8% | 7.3–8.4% | 7.2–8.5% | 7.1–8.7% | 6.9–8.9% |
| 28 January 2020 | MMR | 7.1% | 6.2–8.4% | 5.9–8.7% | 5.6–9.0% | 5.2–9.6% |
| 3–13 January 2020 | MMR | 8.2% | 7.5–9.0% | 7.3–9.3% | 7.1–9.5% | 6.8–9.9% |
| 2 December 2019–1 January 2020 | Gallup | 8.6% | 8.1–9.2% | 8.0–9.4% | 7.8–9.5% | 7.6–9.8% |
| 13–19 December 2019 | MMR | 8.3% | 7.3–9.5% | 7.0–9.8% | 6.7–10.2% | 6.3–10.8% |
| 28 October–1 December 2019 | Gallup | 7.8% | 7.4–8.3% | 7.3–8.4% | 7.2–8.5% | 7.0–8.7% |
| 15–22 November 2019 | MMR | 9.4% | 8.4–10.7% | 8.1–11.0% | 7.8–11.3% | 7.3–12.0% |
| 30 September–27 October 2019 | Gallup | 8.2% | 7.8–8.7% | 7.6–8.9% | 7.5–9.0% | 7.3–9.2% |
| 21–25 October 2019 | MMR | 10.0% | 8.8–11.3% | 8.5–11.7% | 8.2–12.0% | 7.7–12.7% |
| 10–14 October 2019 | Zenter | 7.3% | 6.4–8.4% | 6.2–8.6% | 6.0–8.9% | 5.6–9.4% |
| 30 September–9 October 2019 | MMR | 10.1% | 9.3–11.0% | 9.1–11.3% | 8.9–11.5% | 8.6–11.9% |
| 1–30 September 2019 | Gallup | 7.9% | 7.2–8.8% | 7.0–9.0% | 6.8–9.2% | 6.4–9.6% |
| 9–16 September 2019 | MMR | 11.8% | 10.6–13.1% | 10.2–13.5% | 10.0–13.9% | 9.4–14.6% |
| 29 July–1 September 2019 | Gallup | 8.3% | 7.8–8.9% | 7.6–9.1% | 7.5–9.2% | 7.2–9.5% |
| 12–19 August 2019 | MMR | 10.4% | 9.3–11.8% | 8.9–12.1% | 8.7–12.5% | 8.1–13.1% |
| 1–31 July 2019 | Gallup | 8.5% | 7.8–9.4% | 7.5–9.7% | 7.4–9.9% | 7.0–10.3% |
| 24–26 July 2019 | Zenter | 8.2% | 7.1–9.5% | 6.9–9.9% | 6.6–10.2% | 6.1–10.9% |
| 4–17 July 2019 | MMR | 8.4% | 7.6–9.2% | 7.4–9.4% | 7.2–9.7% | 6.9–10.1% |
| 31 May–30 June 2019 | Gallup | 8.6% | 8.0–9.3% | 7.8–9.4% | 7.7–9.6% | 7.4–10.0% |
| 7–14 June 2019 | MMR | 7.7% | 6.7–8.9% | 6.4–9.2% | 6.2–9.5% | 5.7–10.1% |
| 3–30 May 2019 | Gallup | 8.5% | 7.9–9.2% | 7.7–9.4% | 7.6–9.5% | 7.3–9.8% |
| 23–29 May 2019 | MMR | 9.7% | 8.5–11.0% | 8.2–11.4% | 7.9–11.7% | 7.4–12.4% |
| 14–16 May 2019 | MMR | 11.6% | 10.3–13.0% | 10.0–13.4% | 9.7–13.7% | 9.1–14.4% |
| 30 April–3 May 2019 | MMR | 9.8% | 8.6–11.1% | 8.3–11.5% | 8.0–11.8% | 7.5–12.5% |
| 5–30 April 2019 | Gallup | 8.0% | 7.4–8.7% | 7.2–8.9% | 7.1–9.0% | 6.8–9.4% |
| 13 April 2019 | MMR | 11.2% | 10.0–12.7% | 9.6–13.1% | 9.3–13.4% | 8.7–14.1% |
| 4–9 April 2019 | MMR | 8.7% | 7.7–10.0% | 7.3–10.4% | 7.1–10.7% | 6.6–11.4% |
| 1–31 March 2019 | Gallup | 9.0% | 8.4–9.6% | 8.2–9.8% | 8.1–10.0% | 7.8–10.3% |
| 11–14 March 2019 | MMR | 11.1% | 10.0–12.5% | 9.6–12.9% | 9.3–13.2% | 8.8–13.9% |
| 31 January–28 February 2019 | Gallup | 9.0% | 8.4–9.6% | 8.3–9.8% | 8.1–10.0% | 7.9–10.3% |
| 11–15 February 2019 | MMR | 13.5% | 12.1–15.0% | 11.8–15.5% | 11.4–15.8% | 10.8–16.6% |
| 7–31 January 2019 | Gallup | 8.8% | 8.1–9.6% | 7.9–9.8% | 7.7–10.0% | 7.4–10.4% |
| 28 January 2019 | MMR | 12.6% | 11.3–14.2% | 10.9–14.6% | 10.6–15.0% | 10.0–15.7% |
| 4–14 January 2019 | MMR | 11.7% | 10.8–12.7% | 10.6–12.9% | 10.4–13.2% | 10.0–13.6% |
| 3 December 2018–1 January 2019 | Gallup | 11.4% | 10.7–12.2% | 10.5–12.4% | 10.3–12.6% | 10.0–13.0% |
| 5–11 December 2018 | MMR | 12.5% | 11.2–14.0% | 10.9–14.4% | 10.6–14.7% | 10.0–15.5% |
| 3–4 December 2018 | Zenter | 8.5% | 7.6–9.6% | 7.3–9.9% | 7.1–10.2% | 6.7–10.7% |
| 30 November–3 December 2018 | Maskína | 8.8% | 7.8–9.9% | 7.6–10.2% | 7.4–10.4% | 6.9–11.0% |
| 3 November–2 December 2018 | Gallup | 7.5% | 6.9–8.2% | 6.8–8.3% | 6.6–8.5% | 6.4–8.8% |
| 21 November 2018 | MMR | 7.5% | 6.5–8.7% | 6.2–9.1% | 5.9–9.4% | 5.5–10.0% |
| 8–12 November 2018 | MMR | 8.8% | 7.7–10.0% | 7.5–10.3% | 7.2–10.7% | 6.8–11.3% |
| 2–31 October 2018 | Gallup | 7.2% | 6.7–7.8% | 6.5–8.0% | 6.4–8.1% | 6.1–8.4% |
| 22 October 2018 | MMR | 7.8% | 6.8–9.1% | 6.5–9.4% | 6.2–9.7% | 5.8–10.4% |
| 3–9 October 2018 | MMR | 8.9% | 7.8–10.2% | 7.5–10.6% | 7.2–10.9% | 6.7–11.6% |
| 3 September–1 October 2018 | Gallup | 6.6% | 6.0–7.2% | 5.9–7.4% | 5.7–7.6% | 5.5–7.9% |
| 7–12 September 2018 | MMR | 8.1% | 7.0–9.3% | 6.8–9.7% | 6.5–10.0% | 6.1–10.6% |
| 2 August–2 September 2018 | Gallup | 8.2% | 7.7–8.8% | 7.5–9.0% | 7.4–9.1% | 7.1–9.4% |
| 10 August 2018 | MMR | 8.9% | 7.8–10.2% | 7.5–10.6% | 7.2–10.9% | 6.7–11.6% |
| 29 June–30 July 2018 | Gallup | 9.2% | 8.6–9.8% | 8.4–10.0% | 8.3–10.2% | 8.0–10.5% |
| 31 May–1 July 2018 | Gallup | 8.5% | 7.9–9.2% | 7.7–9.4% | 7.6–9.5% | 7.3–9.8% |
| 12–18 June 2018 | MMR | 9.5% | 8.4–10.9% | 8.1–11.2% | 7.8–11.6% | 7.3–12.3% |
| 2–31 May 2018 | Gallup | 8.9% | 8.3–9.5% | 8.2–9.7% | 8.0–9.8% | 7.8–10.1% |
| 16–22 May 2018 | MMR | 10.1% | 8.9–11.5% | 8.6–11.9% | 8.3–12.2% | 7.8–12.9% |
| 2 May 2018 | MMR | 8.2% | 7.2–9.5% | 6.9–9.9% | 6.6–10.2% | 6.1–10.9% |
| 27 March–29 April 2018 | Gallup | 9.6% | 9.0–10.2% | 8.9–10.4% | 8.7–10.6% | 8.4–10.9% |
| 13–19 April 2018 | MMR | 7.3% | 6.2–8.5% | 6.0–8.8% | 5.7–9.1% | 5.3–9.7% |
| 1–26 March 2018 | Gallup | 9.2% | 8.6–9.9% | 8.4–10.1% | 8.2–10.3% | 7.9–10.6% |
| 19 March 2018 | MMR | 9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.6–10.7% | 7.3–11.1% | 6.8–11.7% |
| 1–28 February 2018 | Gallup | 9.3% | 8.7–10.0% | 8.5–10.2% | 8.3–10.4% | 8.0–10.7% |
| 4–31 January 2018 | Gallup | 9.5% | 8.9–10.2% | 8.7–10.4% | 8.5–10.6% | 8.2–11.0% |
| 25–30 January 2018 | MMR | 11.2% | 10.0–12.6% | 9.6–13.0% | 9.3–13.4% | 8.8–14.1% |
| 9–17 January 2018 | MMR | 11.2% | 10.3–12.3% | 10.0–12.6% | 9.8–12.9% | 9.3–13.4% |
| 30 November–28 December 2017 | Gallup | 11.9% | 11.3–12.6% | 11.1–12.8% | 10.9–13.0% | 10.6–13.3% |
| 12–15 December 2017 | MMR | 8.6% | 7.5–9.9% | 7.2–10.2% | 6.9–10.5% | 6.4–11.2% |
| 4 December 2017 | Fréttablaðið/Stöð 2/Vísir | 11.3% | 10.0–12.9% | 9.6–13.3% | 9.3–13.7% | 8.7–14.5% |
| 4 December 2017 | Fréttablaðið, Stöð 2 and Vísir | 11.3% | 10.0–12.9% | 9.6–13.3% | 9.3–13.7% | 8.7–14.5% |
| 8–30 November 2017 | Gallup | 10.4% | 9.6–11.3% | 9.4–11.5% | 9.2–11.7% | 8.9–12.1% |
| 14–17 November 2017 | MMR | 9.5% | 8.4–10.9% | 8.1–11.2% | 7.8–11.6% | 7.3–12.2% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Framsóknarflokkurinn.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 5% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 11.5–12.5% | 10% | 95% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 8% | 85% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 10% | 77% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 36% | 67% | Median |
| 15.5–16.5% | 20% | 32% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 7% | 12% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 3% | 5% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 8 seats (General Election of 28 October 2017)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 12 | 9–12 | 8–14 | 8–14 | 7–15 |
| 22–24 September 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
12 | 12 | 12 | 11–13 | 11–13 |
| 24 September 2021 | Gallup RÚV |
11 | 11–12 | 11–12 | 10–12 | 9–12 |
| 22–23 September 2021 | MMR Morgunblaðið |
12 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 10–15 | 10–16 |
| 15–22 September 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
9 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–12 |
| 21–22 September 2021 | MMR Morgunblaðið |
11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 | 8–13 |
| 17–21 September 2021 | Prósent Fréttablaðið |
9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 |
| 13–19 September 2021 | Gallup RÚV |
9 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 8–11 | 8–11 |
| 15–17 September 2021 | MMR Morgunblaðið |
9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 7–11 |
| 13–16 September 2021 | Prósent Fréttablaðið |
10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–12 |
| 8–13 September 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–10 |
| 30 August–12 September 2021 | Gallup | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 8–11 |
| 8–10 September 2021 | MMR | 12 | 10–12 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 8–14 |
| 31 August–6 September 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
8 | 8–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–10 |
| 29 August 2021 | Gallup | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 24 August 2021 | MMR | 8 | 8–10 | 8–12 | 7–12 | 7–12 |
| 13–23 August 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| 29 July–15 August 2021 | Gallup | 8 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| 1–31 July 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
6 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| 30 June–28 July 2021 | Gallup | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8–9 | 7–10 |
| 15–23 July 2021 | Prósent Fréttablaðið |
8 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 |
| 24 June–6 July 2021 | MMR | 8 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–10 | 8–10 |
| 1–30 June 2021 | Maskína | 8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| 1–29 June 2021 | Gallup | 8 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| 4–14 June 2021 | MMR | 6 | 5–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–8 |
| 25 May–1 June 2021 | MMR | 8 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| 1–31 May 2021 | Gallup | 8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| 7–12 May 2021 | MMR | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| 1–30 April 2021 | Gallup | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 21–28 April 2021 | MMR | 8 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| 29 March–7 April 2021 | MMR | 8 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 6–11 |
| 1–29 March 2021 | Gallup | 8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 |
| 5–10 March 2021 | MMR | 10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–11 |
| 1–28 February 2021 | Gallup | 7 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| 12–18 February 2021 | MMR | 8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 6–11 |
| 6–31 January 2021 | Gallup | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 |
| 30 December 2020–11 January 2021 | MMR | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 1 December 2020–3 January 2021 | Gallup | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| 11–19 December 2020 | Zenter | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 26 November–3 December 2020 | MMR | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
| 2–30 November 2020 | Gallup | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| 6–11 November 2020 | MMR | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| 30 September–1 November 2020 | Gallup | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4–6 |
| 23–28 October 2020 | MMR | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| 1–30 September 2020 | Gallup | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 24–28 September 2020 | Maskína | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| 10–23 September 2020 | MMR | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| 26 August–2 September 2020 | MMR | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| 4–31 August 2020 | Gallup | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| 23–28 July 2020 | MMR | 6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 |
| 2–30 June 2020 | Gallup | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| 16–19 June 2020 | MMR | 4 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–6 |
| 4 May–1 June 2020 | Gallup | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4–6 |
| 19–25 May 2020 | MMR | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–6 |
| 30 March–3 May 2020 | Gallup | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| 15–17 April 2020 | MMR | 6 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| 3–7 April 2020 | MMR | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| 2–29 March 2020 | Gallup | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| 18–20 March 2020 | MMR | 5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 3 February–1 March 2020 | Gallup | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 6–10 February 2020 | MMR | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 2–6 |
| 3 January–2 February 2020 | Gallup | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4–6 |
| 28 January 2020 | MMR | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
| 3–13 January 2020 | MMR | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 |
| 2 December 2019–1 January 2020 | Gallup | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| 13–19 December 2019 | MMR | 5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 28 October–1 December 2019 | Gallup | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 15–22 November 2019 | MMR | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 30 September–27 October 2019 | Gallup | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| 21–25 October 2019 | MMR | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| 10–14 October 2019 | Zenter | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 |
| 30 September–9 October 2019 | MMR | 7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–10 |
| 1–30 September 2019 | Gallup | 5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 9–16 September 2019 | MMR | 8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–10 |
| 29 July–1 September 2019 | Gallup | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| 12–19 August 2019 | MMR | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| 1–31 July 2019 | Gallup | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 |
| 24–26 July 2019 | Zenter | 5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 4–17 July 2019 | MMR | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 31 May–30 June 2019 | Gallup | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| 7–14 June 2019 | MMR | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| 3–30 May 2019 | Gallup | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| 23–29 May 2019 | MMR | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| 14–16 May 2019 | MMR | 8 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 6–11 |
| 30 April–3 May 2019 | MMR | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| 5–30 April 2019 | Gallup | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| 13 April 2019 | MMR | 8 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 6–11 |
| 4–9 April 2019 | MMR | 6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 |
| 1–31 March 2019 | Gallup | 6 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 11–14 March 2019 | MMR | 8 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| 31 January–28 February 2019 | Gallup | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 11–15 February 2019 | MMR | 10 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–12 |
| 7–31 January 2019 | Gallup | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 28 January 2019 | MMR | 9 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 6–11 |
| 4–14 January 2019 | MMR | 8 | 8–9 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 |
| 3 December 2018–1 January 2019 | Gallup | 8 | 7–8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 6–10 |
| 5–11 December 2018 | MMR | 9 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 |
| 3–4 December 2018 | Zenter | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 30 November–3 December 2018 | Maskína | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| 3 November–2 December 2018 | Gallup | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 21 November 2018 | MMR | 4 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 |
| 8–12 November 2018 | MMR | 5 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| 2–31 October 2018 | Gallup | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 22 October 2018 | MMR | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 |
| 3–9 October 2018 | MMR | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| 3 September–1 October 2018 | Gallup | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 7–12 September 2018 | MMR | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 2 August–2 September 2018 | Gallup | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 10 August 2018 | MMR | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| 29 June–30 July 2018 | Gallup | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 31 May–1 July 2018 | Gallup | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| 12–18 June 2018 | MMR | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 4–8 |
| 2–31 May 2018 | Gallup | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| 16–22 May 2018 | MMR | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| 2 May 2018 | MMR | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 27 March–29 April 2018 | Gallup | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| 13–19 April 2018 | MMR | 4 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| 1–26 March 2018 | Gallup | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 19 March 2018 | MMR | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| 1–28 February 2018 | Gallup | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 4–31 January 2018 | Gallup | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 25–30 January 2018 | MMR | 8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| 9–17 January 2018 | MMR | 8 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 |
| 30 November–28 December 2017 | Gallup | 8 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 7–10 |
| 12–15 December 2017 | MMR | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| 4 December 2017 | Fréttablaðið/Stöð 2/Vísir | 8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| 4 December 2017 | Fréttablaðið, Stöð 2 and Vísir | 8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| 8–30 November 2017 | Gallup | 8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| 14–17 November 2017 | MMR | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 4–8 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Framsóknarflokkurinn.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 5% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 9 | 13% | 94% | |
| 10 | 8% | 81% | |
| 11 | 22% | 73% | |
| 12 | 42% | 51% | Median |
| 13 | 3% | 10% | |
| 14 | 5% | 7% | |
| 15 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |