Miðflokkurinn
Voting Intentions
Last result: 10.9% (General Election of 28 October 2017)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 6.3% | 5.3–7.2% | 5.1–7.5% | 4.9–7.7% | 4.4–8.3% |
| 22–24 September 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
5.5% | 5.1–5.9% | 5.0–6.0% | 4.9–6.1% | 4.8–6.3% |
| 24 September 2021 | Gallup RÚV |
6.8% | 6.4–7.3% | 6.2–7.4% | 6.1–7.5% | 5.9–7.8% |
| 22–23 September 2021 | MMR Morgunblaðið |
5.8% | 4.9–7.0% | 4.7–7.3% | 4.5–7.5% | 4.1–8.1% |
| 15–22 September 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
7.1% | 6.1–8.3% | 5.8–8.6% | 5.5–8.9% | 5.1–9.6% |
| 21–22 September 2021 | MMR Morgunblaðið |
4.7% | 3.9–5.8% | 3.7–6.1% | 3.5–6.3% | 3.2–6.8% |
| 17–21 September 2021 | Prósent Fréttablaðið |
6.6% | 5.8–7.6% | 5.6–7.9% | 5.4–8.2% | 5.0–8.7% |
| 13–19 September 2021 | Gallup RÚV |
6.2% | 5.7–6.7% | 5.6–6.9% | 5.5–7.0% | 5.3–7.3% |
| 15–17 September 2021 | MMR Morgunblaðið |
4.6% | 3.9–5.5% | 3.7–5.7% | 3.6–5.9% | 3.3–6.4% |
| 13–16 September 2021 | Prósent Fréttablaðið |
5.9% | 5.2–6.8% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.8–7.2% | 4.5–7.6% |
| 8–13 September 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
5.5% | 5.0–6.1% | 4.9–6.2% | 4.8–6.4% | 4.5–6.6% |
| 30 August–12 September 2021 | Gallup | 7.6% | 7.0–8.2% | 6.8–8.4% | 6.7–8.6% | 6.4–8.9% |
| 8–10 September 2021 | MMR | 6.0% | 5.1–7.2% | 4.9–7.5% | 4.7–7.8% | 4.3–8.4% |
| 31 August–6 September 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
4.5% | 4.0–5.2% | 3.8–5.3% | 3.7–5.5% | 3.5–5.8% |
| 29 August 2021 | Gallup | 7.0% | 6.3–7.7% | 6.2–7.9% | 6.0–8.1% | 5.7–8.5% |
| 24 August 2021 | MMR | 6.2% | 5.2–7.3% | 5.0–7.6% | 4.8–7.9% | 4.4–8.5% |
| 13–23 August 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
5.1% | 4.2–6.2% | 4.0–6.6% | 3.8–6.8% | 3.4–7.4% |
| 29 July–15 August 2021 | Gallup | 6.7% | 6.3–7.1% | 6.2–7.2% | 6.1–7.3% | 5.9–7.5% |
| 1–31 July 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
5.5% | 4.6–6.6% | 4.3–6.9% | 4.1–7.2% | 3.8–7.7% |
| 30 June–28 July 2021 | Gallup | 7.4% | 6.9–8.0% | 6.7–8.1% | 6.6–8.3% | 6.4–8.6% |
| 15–23 July 2021 | Prósent Fréttablaðið |
5.6% | 5.1–6.2% | 4.9–6.4% | 4.8–6.6% | 4.5–6.9% |
| 24 June–6 July 2021 | MMR | 6.6% | 6.0–7.4% | 5.8–7.6% | 5.6–7.8% | 5.3–8.2% |
| 1–30 June 2021 | Maskína | 5.0% | 4.2–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.7–6.7% | 3.4–7.2% |
| 1–29 June 2021 | Gallup | 7.5% | 7.0–8.0% | 6.9–8.2% | 6.7–8.3% | 6.5–8.6% |
| 4–14 June 2021 | MMR | 7.3% | 6.3–8.5% | 6.1–8.8% | 5.8–9.1% | 5.4–9.7% |
| 25 May–1 June 2021 | MMR | 6.5% | 5.6–7.7% | 5.3–8.0% | 5.1–8.3% | 4.7–8.9% |
| 1–31 May 2021 | Gallup | 7.2% | 6.5–8.0% | 6.3–8.3% | 6.1–8.5% | 5.8–8.9% |
| 7–12 May 2021 | MMR | 5.7% | 4.8–6.8% | 4.6–7.1% | 4.4–7.3% | 4.0–7.9% |
| 1–30 April 2021 | Gallup | 8.2% | 7.4–9.0% | 7.2–9.3% | 7.0–9.5% | 6.7–9.9% |
| 21–28 April 2021 | MMR | 5.8% | 4.9–6.9% | 4.7–7.2% | 4.5–7.5% | 4.1–8.0% |
| 29 March–7 April 2021 | MMR | 6.9% | 6.0–8.1% | 5.7–8.4% | 5.5–8.7% | 5.0–9.3% |
| 1–29 March 2021 | Gallup | 9.5% | 9.0–10.0% | 8.9–10.2% | 8.7–10.3% | 8.5–10.6% |
| 5–10 March 2021 | MMR | 9.4% | 8.2–10.7% | 7.9–11.1% | 7.7–11.4% | 7.2–12.0% |
| 1–28 February 2021 | Gallup | 7.3% | 6.8–7.8% | 6.7–8.0% | 6.6–8.1% | 6.4–8.3% |
| 12–18 February 2021 | MMR | 8.1% | 7.0–9.3% | 6.7–9.7% | 6.5–10.0% | 6.0–10.6% |
| 6–31 January 2021 | Gallup | 8.0% | 7.5–8.5% | 7.4–8.7% | 7.3–8.8% | 7.0–9.1% |
| 30 December 2020–11 January 2021 | MMR | 8.6% | 7.8–9.4% | 7.6–9.7% | 7.4–9.9% | 7.1–10.3% |
| 1 December 2020–3 January 2021 | Gallup | 9.1% | 8.6–9.6% | 8.5–9.8% | 8.4–9.9% | 8.2–10.1% |
| 11–19 December 2020 | Zenter | 6.7% | 5.9–7.6% | 5.6–7.9% | 5.4–8.1% | 5.1–8.6% |
| 26 November–3 December 2020 | MMR | 7.0% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.5–8.8% | 5.1–9.4% |
| 2–30 November 2020 | Gallup | 8.8% | 8.3–9.3% | 8.2–9.5% | 8.0–9.6% | 7.8–9.9% |
| 6–11 November 2020 | MMR | 9.1% | 8.0–10.4% | 7.7–10.8% | 7.4–11.1% | 6.9–11.8% |
| 30 September–1 November 2020 | Gallup | 9.9% | 9.4–10.4% | 9.3–10.6% | 9.2–10.7% | 9.0–11.0% |
| 23–28 October 2020 | MMR | 11.6% | 10.3–13.0% | 10.0–13.4% | 9.7–13.8% | 9.1–14.5% |
| 1–30 September 2020 | Gallup | 9.4% | 8.9–10.0% | 8.8–10.1% | 8.7–10.2% | 8.4–10.5% |
| 24–28 September 2020 | Maskína | 5.9% | 5.0–7.1% | 4.8–7.4% | 4.5–7.7% | 4.1–8.3% |
| 10–23 September 2020 | MMR | 10.8% | 10.0–11.8% | 9.7–12.0% | 9.5–12.2% | 9.2–12.7% |
| 26 August–2 September 2020 | MMR | 8.0% | 6.9–9.2% | 6.6–9.6% | 6.4–9.9% | 5.9–10.5% |
| 4–31 August 2020 | Gallup | 9.9% | 9.4–10.5% | 9.2–10.6% | 9.1–10.8% | 8.9–11.0% |
| 23–28 July 2020 | MMR | 8.4% | 7.4–9.7% | 7.1–10.0% | 6.8–10.3% | 6.3–11.0% |
| 2–30 June 2020 | Gallup | 10.2% | 9.7–10.8% | 9.5–10.9% | 9.4–11.0% | 9.2–11.3% |
| 16–19 June 2020 | MMR | 8.0% | 7.1–9.2% | 6.8–9.6% | 6.5–9.8% | 6.1–10.4% |
| 4 May–1 June 2020 | Gallup | 10.4% | 9.9–11.0% | 9.8–11.1% | 9.7–11.2% | 9.4–11.5% |
| 19–25 May 2020 | MMR | 10.8% | 9.6–12.1% | 9.3–12.5% | 9.0–12.8% | 8.5–13.5% |
| 30 March–3 May 2020 | Gallup | 9.9% | 9.4–10.4% | 9.3–10.6% | 9.2–10.7% | 9.0–10.9% |
| 15–17 April 2020 | MMR | 9.5% | 8.4–10.8% | 8.1–11.1% | 7.9–11.4% | 7.4–12.1% |
| 3–7 April 2020 | MMR | 10.7% | 9.6–12.1% | 9.2–12.5% | 9.0–12.8% | 8.4–13.5% |
| 2–29 March 2020 | Gallup | 11.2% | 10.7–11.8% | 10.5–11.9% | 10.4–12.1% | 10.2–12.3% |
| 18–20 March 2020 | MMR | 10.2% | 9.0–11.5% | 8.7–11.8% | 8.5–12.1% | 8.0–12.8% |
| 3 February–1 March 2020 | Gallup | 14.0% | 13.3–14.6% | 13.1–14.8% | 13.0–15.0% | 12.7–15.4% |
| 6–10 February 2020 | MMR | 13.3% | 12.0–14.7% | 11.6–15.1% | 11.3–15.5% | 10.7–16.2% |
| 3 January–2 February 2020 | Gallup | 12.6% | 11.9–13.2% | 11.8–13.4% | 11.6–13.6% | 11.4–13.9% |
| 28 January 2020 | MMR | 15.1% | 13.6–16.7% | 13.2–17.1% | 12.9–17.5% | 12.2–18.3% |
| 3–13 January 2020 | MMR | 12.9% | 12.0–13.9% | 11.8–14.2% | 11.6–14.4% | 11.1–14.9% |
| 2 December 2019–1 January 2020 | Gallup | 12.8% | 12.1–13.4% | 12.0–13.6% | 11.8–13.7% | 11.5–14.1% |
| 13–19 December 2019 | MMR | 14.3% | 13.0–15.8% | 12.6–16.2% | 12.3–16.6% | 11.7–17.3% |
| 28 October–1 December 2019 | Gallup | 12.9% | 12.4–13.5% | 12.2–13.6% | 12.1–13.8% | 11.9–14.1% |
| 15–22 November 2019 | MMR | 16.8% | 15.4–18.3% | 15.0–18.8% | 14.6–19.1% | 14.0–19.9% |
| 30 September–27 October 2019 | Gallup | 11.5% | 11.0–12.1% | 10.8–12.3% | 10.7–12.4% | 10.5–12.7% |
| 21–25 October 2019 | MMR | 13.5% | 12.2–15.0% | 11.8–15.4% | 11.5–15.8% | 10.9–16.5% |
| 10–14 October 2019 | Zenter | 11.6% | 10.5–12.9% | 10.2–13.3% | 10.0–13.6% | 9.5–14.2% |
| 30 September–9 October 2019 | MMR | 14.8% | 13.8–15.8% | 13.6–16.1% | 13.3–16.4% | 12.9–16.9% |
| 1–30 September 2019 | Gallup | 12.3% | 11.4–13.3% | 11.1–13.6% | 10.9–13.9% | 10.5–14.4% |
| 9–16 September 2019 | MMR | 12.1% | 10.9–13.4% | 10.5–13.8% | 10.2–14.2% | 9.7–14.9% |
| 29 July–1 September 2019 | Gallup | 13.4% | 12.7–14.1% | 12.5–14.3% | 12.4–14.5% | 12.1–14.8% |
| 12–19 August 2019 | MMR | 13.0% | 11.8–14.5% | 11.4–14.9% | 11.1–15.3% | 10.5–16.0% |
| 1–31 July 2019 | Gallup | 12.2% | 11.2–13.2% | 11.0–13.5% | 10.8–13.7% | 10.3–14.2% |
| 24–26 July 2019 | Zenter | 13.3% | 12.0–14.9% | 11.6–15.3% | 11.3–15.7% | 10.7–16.5% |
| 4–17 July 2019 | MMR | 14.4% | 13.4–15.4% | 13.2–15.7% | 12.9–16.0% | 12.5–16.5% |
| 31 May–30 June 2019 | Gallup | 11.4% | 10.7–12.2% | 10.5–12.4% | 10.3–12.6% | 10.0–12.9% |
| 7–14 June 2019 | MMR | 10.6% | 9.5–12.0% | 9.1–12.4% | 8.9–12.7% | 8.3–13.4% |
| 3–30 May 2019 | Gallup | 10.0% | 9.4–10.7% | 9.2–10.9% | 9.0–11.1% | 8.7–11.4% |
| 23–29 May 2019 | MMR | 10.8% | 9.6–12.3% | 9.3–12.7% | 9.0–13.0% | 8.4–13.7% |
| 14–16 May 2019 | MMR | 11.8% | 10.5–13.2% | 10.2–13.6% | 9.9–13.9% | 9.3–14.6% |
| 30 April–3 May 2019 | MMR | 9.2% | 8.1–10.6% | 7.8–10.9% | 7.6–11.3% | 7.1–11.9% |
| 5–30 April 2019 | Gallup | 8.9% | 8.2–9.6% | 8.1–9.8% | 7.9–10.0% | 7.6–10.3% |
| 13 April 2019 | MMR | 9.2% | 8.1–10.6% | 7.8–11.0% | 7.5–11.3% | 7.0–12.0% |
| 4–9 April 2019 | MMR | 10.2% | 9.0–11.5% | 8.6–11.9% | 8.4–12.3% | 7.8–13.0% |
| 1–31 March 2019 | Gallup | 9.0% | 8.4–9.6% | 8.2–9.8% | 8.1–10.0% | 7.8–10.3% |
| 11–14 March 2019 | MMR | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.5–9.8% | 6.1–10.4% |
| 31 January–28 February 2019 | Gallup | 6.7% | 6.2–7.3% | 6.1–7.4% | 5.9–7.5% | 5.7–7.8% |
| 11–15 February 2019 | MMR | 6.1% | 5.2–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.7–7.8% | 4.3–8.4% |
| 7–31 January 2019 | Gallup | 6.5% | 5.9–7.2% | 5.7–7.4% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% |
| 28 January 2019 | MMR | 8.2% | 7.2–9.5% | 6.9–9.9% | 6.6–10.2% | 6.1–10.9% |
| 4–14 January 2019 | MMR | 6.9% | 6.2–7.7% | 6.0–7.9% | 5.9–8.1% | 5.6–8.4% |
| 3 December 2018–1 January 2019 | Gallup | 5.7% | 5.2–6.3% | 5.0–6.5% | 4.9–6.6% | 4.7–6.9% |
| 5–11 December 2018 | MMR | 5.9% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.6–7.6% | 4.2–8.2% |
| 3–4 December 2018 | Zenter | 4.3% | 3.6–5.1% | 3.4–5.3% | 3.3–5.5% | 3.0–5.9% |
| 30 November–3 December 2018 | Maskína | 4.6% | 3.9–5.4% | 3.7–5.6% | 3.6–5.9% | 3.3–6.3% |
| 3 November–2 December 2018 | Gallup | 12.0% | 11.3–12.8% | 11.1–13.0% | 10.9–13.2% | 10.6–13.6% |
| 21 November 2018 | MMR | 13.1% | 11.7–14.6% | 11.4–15.0% | 11.0–15.4% | 10.4–16.2% |
| 8–12 November 2018 | MMR | 12.1% | 10.9–13.5% | 10.6–13.9% | 10.3–14.2% | 9.7–14.9% |
| 2–31 October 2018 | Gallup | 10.3% | 9.6–11.0% | 9.5–11.2% | 9.3–11.4% | 9.0–11.7% |
| 22 October 2018 | MMR | 12.7% | 11.4–14.3% | 11.1–14.7% | 10.7–15.1% | 10.1–15.8% |
| 3–9 October 2018 | MMR | 11.9% | 10.7–13.4% | 10.3–13.8% | 10.0–14.2% | 9.4–14.9% |
| 3 September–1 October 2018 | Gallup | 9.8% | 9.1–10.5% | 8.9–10.7% | 8.8–10.9% | 8.5–11.3% |
| 7–12 September 2018 | MMR | 10.8% | 9.6–12.2% | 9.3–12.6% | 9.0–12.9% | 8.4–13.6% |
| 2 August–2 September 2018 | Gallup | 8.7% | 8.1–9.3% | 8.0–9.5% | 7.8–9.7% | 7.6–10.0% |
| 10 August 2018 | MMR | 10.3% | 9.1–11.7% | 8.8–12.1% | 8.5–12.5% | 8.0–13.2% |
| 29 June–30 July 2018 | Gallup | 8.6% | 8.0–9.2% | 7.9–9.4% | 7.7–9.6% | 7.5–9.9% |
| 31 May–1 July 2018 | Gallup | 8.0% | 7.4–8.6% | 7.2–8.8% | 7.1–9.0% | 6.8–9.3% |
| 12–18 June 2018 | MMR | 10.6% | 9.4–12.0% | 9.1–12.4% | 8.8–12.7% | 8.2–13.4% |
| 2–31 May 2018 | Gallup | 8.5% | 8.0–9.1% | 7.8–9.3% | 7.7–9.4% | 7.4–9.7% |
| 16–22 May 2018 | MMR | 9.8% | 8.6–11.2% | 8.3–11.5% | 8.0–11.9% | 7.5–12.6% |
| 2 May 2018 | MMR | 10.3% | 9.1–11.7% | 8.8–12.1% | 8.5–12.5% | 8.0–13.2% |
| 27 March–29 April 2018 | Gallup | 7.9% | 7.4–8.5% | 7.2–8.7% | 7.1–8.8% | 6.8–9.1% |
| 13–19 April 2018 | MMR | 8.8% | 7.7–10.1% | 7.4–10.5% | 7.1–10.8% | 6.6–11.5% |
| 1–26 March 2018 | Gallup | 8.7% | 8.1–9.4% | 7.9–9.6% | 7.8–9.8% | 7.5–10.1% |
| 19 March 2018 | MMR | 10.7% | 9.4–12.1% | 9.1–12.5% | 8.8–12.8% | 8.3–13.6% |
| 1–28 February 2018 | Gallup | 8.6% | 8.0–9.3% | 7.8–9.4% | 7.6–9.6% | 7.4–10.0% |
| 4–31 January 2018 | Gallup | 6.8% | 6.2–7.4% | 6.1–7.6% | 6.0–7.8% | 5.7–8.1% |
| 25–30 January 2018 | MMR | 7.7% | 6.6–8.9% | 6.4–9.2% | 6.1–9.5% | 5.7–10.2% |
| 9–17 January 2018 | MMR | 6.9% | 6.1–7.8% | 5.9–8.0% | 5.8–8.3% | 5.4–8.7% |
| 30 November–28 December 2017 | Gallup | 5.8% | 5.3–6.3% | 5.2–6.4% | 5.1–6.6% | 4.9–6.8% |
| 12–15 December 2017 | MMR | 8.7% | 7.6–10.0% | 7.3–10.3% | 7.0–10.7% | 6.5–11.3% |
| 4 December 2017 | Fréttablaðið/Stöð 2/Vísir | 7.3% | 6.3–8.7% | 6.0–9.0% | 5.7–9.4% | 5.3–10.0% |
| 4 December 2017 | Fréttablaðið, Stöð 2 and Vísir | 7.3% | 6.3–8.7% | 6.0–9.0% | 5.7–9.4% | 5.3–10.0% |
| 8–30 November 2017 | Gallup | 6.8% | 6.2–7.5% | 6.0–7.7% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.6–8.3% |
| 14–17 November 2017 | MMR | 10.5% | 9.3–11.9% | 9.0–12.3% | 8.7–12.6% | 8.2–13.3% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Miðflokkurinn.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 22% | 99.2% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 38% | 77% | Median |
| 6.5–7.5% | 34% | 39% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 4% | 4% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Seats
Last result: 7 seats (General Election of 28 October 2017)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 3 | 3–4 | 1–4 | 1–5 | 1–5 |
| 22–24 September 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
3 | 3 | 3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| 24 September 2021 | Gallup RÚV |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 22–23 September 2021 | MMR Morgunblaðið |
3 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–5 |
| 15–22 September 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| 21–22 September 2021 | MMR Morgunblaðið |
1 | 1–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| 17–21 September 2021 | Prósent Fréttablaðið |
4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 13–19 September 2021 | Gallup RÚV |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 15–17 September 2021 | MMR Morgunblaðið |
1 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| 13–16 September 2021 | Prósent Fréttablaðið |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 1–5 | 1–5 |
| 8–13 September 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
3 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| 30 August–12 September 2021 | Gallup | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| 8–10 September 2021 | MMR | 4 | 3–4 | 1–4 | 1–5 | 1–5 |
| 31 August–6 September 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 29 August 2021 | Gallup | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| 24 August 2021 | MMR | 4 | 3–4 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 1–6 |
| 13–23 August 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
3 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| 29 July–15 August 2021 | Gallup | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 1–31 July 2021 | Maskína Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir |
3 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 30 June–28 July 2021 | Gallup | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 15–23 July 2021 | Prósent Fréttablaðið |
3 | 3–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| 24 June–6 July 2021 | MMR | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 1–30 June 2021 | Maskína | 3 | 1–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| 1–29 June 2021 | Gallup | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| 4–14 June 2021 | MMR | 4 | 4–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| 25 May–1 June 2021 | MMR | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 1–6 |
| 1–31 May 2021 | Gallup | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–6 |
| 7–12 May 2021 | MMR | 3 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–5 | 0–5 |
| 1–30 April 2021 | Gallup | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 21–28 April 2021 | MMR | 3 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–5 | 1–5 |
| 29 March–7 April 2021 | MMR | 5 | 4–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 2–6 |
| 1–29 March 2021 | Gallup | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 5–10 March 2021 | MMR | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| 1–28 February 2021 | Gallup | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 12–18 February 2021 | MMR | 5 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 6–31 January 2021 | Gallup | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| 30 December 2020–11 January 2021 | MMR | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 1 December 2020–3 January 2021 | Gallup | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6–7 | 5–7 |
| 11–19 December 2020 | Zenter | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| 26 November–3 December 2020 | MMR | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| 2–30 November 2020 | Gallup | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| 6–11 November 2020 | MMR | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| 30 September–1 November 2020 | Gallup | 6 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| 23–28 October 2020 | MMR | 9 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| 1–30 September 2020 | Gallup | 6 | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 |
| 24–28 September 2020 | Maskína | 3 | 2–4 | 1–4 | 1–5 | 1–5 |
| 10–23 September 2020 | MMR | 8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| 26 August–2 September 2020 | MMR | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 4–31 August 2020 | Gallup | 7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| 23–28 July 2020 | MMR | 5 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| 2–30 June 2020 | Gallup | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| 16–19 June 2020 | MMR | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 4 May–1 June 2020 | Gallup | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7–8 | 6–8 |
| 19–25 May 2020 | MMR | 8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| 30 March–3 May 2020 | Gallup | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 |
| 15–17 April 2020 | MMR | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| 3–7 April 2020 | MMR | 7 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| 2–29 March 2020 | Gallup | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| 18–20 March 2020 | MMR | 7 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| 3 February–1 March 2020 | Gallup | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10–11 | 9–11 |
| 6–10 February 2020 | MMR | 10 | 9–10 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| 3 January–2 February 2020 | Gallup | 10 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 9–10 |
| 28 January 2020 | MMR | 10 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 9–14 |
| 3–13 January 2020 | MMR | 10 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 |
| 2 December 2019–1 January 2020 | Gallup | 10 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 |
| 13–19 December 2019 | MMR | 10 | 10–11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 |
| 28 October–1 December 2019 | Gallup | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 |
| 15–22 November 2019 | MMR | 11 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 |
| 30 September–27 October 2019 | Gallup | 9 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| 21–25 October 2019 | MMR | 10 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| 10–14 October 2019 | Zenter | 8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| 30 September–9 October 2019 | MMR | 10 | 10–11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–13 |
| 1–30 September 2019 | Gallup | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 |
| 9–16 September 2019 | MMR | 8 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–10 |
| 29 July–1 September 2019 | Gallup | 10 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 9–10 |
| 12–19 August 2019 | MMR | 10 | 9–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–11 |
| 1–31 July 2019 | Gallup | 9 | 8–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 |
| 24–26 July 2019 | Zenter | 9 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| 4–17 July 2019 | MMR | 10 | 10–11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 |
| 31 May–30 June 2019 | Gallup | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–10 |
| 7–14 June 2019 | MMR | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| 3–30 May 2019 | Gallup | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| 23–29 May 2019 | MMR | 7 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| 14–16 May 2019 | MMR | 9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| 30 April–3 May 2019 | MMR | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| 5–30 April 2019 | Gallup | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 13 April 2019 | MMR | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| 4–9 April 2019 | MMR | 7 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| 1–31 March 2019 | Gallup | 6 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 11–14 March 2019 | MMR | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 31 January–28 February 2019 | Gallup | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 11–15 February 2019 | MMR | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 1–5 | 1–5 |
| 7–31 January 2019 | Gallup | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 28 January 2019 | MMR | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 4–14 January 2019 | MMR | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| 3 December 2018–1 January 2019 | Gallup | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| 5–11 December 2018 | MMR | 4 | 3–4 | 1–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 3–4 December 2018 | Zenter | 1 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| 30 November–3 December 2018 | Maskína | 1 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| 3 November–2 December 2018 | Gallup | 9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 |
| 21 November 2018 | MMR | 10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 |
| 8–12 November 2018 | MMR | 9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–10 |
| 2–31 October 2018 | Gallup | 6 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| 22 October 2018 | MMR | 9 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–11 |
| 3–9 October 2018 | MMR | 9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| 3 September–1 October 2018 | Gallup | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 7–12 September 2018 | MMR | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| 2 August–2 September 2018 | Gallup | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| 10 August 2018 | MMR | 7 | 6–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| 29 June–30 July 2018 | Gallup | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| 31 May–1 July 2018 | Gallup | 5 | 5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 12–18 June 2018 | MMR | 7 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| 2–31 May 2018 | Gallup | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| 16–22 May 2018 | MMR | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| 2 May 2018 | MMR | 6 | 6–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| 27 March–29 April 2018 | Gallup | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| 13–19 April 2018 | MMR | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| 1–26 March 2018 | Gallup | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| 19 March 2018 | MMR | 7 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–9 |
| 1–28 February 2018 | Gallup | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| 4–31 January 2018 | Gallup | 4 | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 25–30 January 2018 | MMR | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| 9–17 January 2018 | MMR | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 30 November–28 December 2017 | Gallup | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 1–4 |
| 12–15 December 2017 | MMR | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| 4 December 2017 | Fréttablaðið/Stöð 2/Vísir | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
| 4 December 2017 | Fréttablaðið, Stöð 2 and Vísir | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
| 8–30 November 2017 | Gallup | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 14–17 November 2017 | MMR | 7 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Miðflokkurinn.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 3 | 46% | 95% | Median |
| 4 | 44% | 49% | |
| 5 | 4% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |