Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 16.9% (General Election of 28 October 2017)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 10.7% 9.4–12.2% 8.9–12.5% 8.5–12.7% 7.8–13.1%
22–24 September 2021 Maskína
Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir
10.5% 10.0–11.0% 9.9–11.2% 9.7–11.3% 9.5–11.6%
24 September 2021 Gallup
RÚV
12.0% 11.4–12.6% 11.2–12.8% 11.1–12.9% 10.8–13.2%
22–23 September 2021 MMR
Morgunblaðið
9.7% 8.5–11.0% 8.2–11.4% 7.9–11.8% 7.4–12.5%
15–22 September 2021 Maskína
Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir
11.5% 10.2–13.0% 9.8–13.4% 9.5–13.8% 9.0–14.5%
21–22 September 2021 MMR
Morgunblaðið
11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.4–12.8% 9.1–13.2% 8.6–13.9%
17–21 September 2021 Prósent
Fréttablaðið
10.7% 9.7–11.9% 9.4–12.3% 9.1–12.6% 8.6–13.2%
13–19 September 2021 Gallup
RÚV
10.2% 9.6–10.9% 9.4–11.0% 9.3–11.2% 9.0–11.5%
15–17 September 2021 MMR
Morgunblaðið
12.1% 11.0–13.4% 10.7–13.7% 10.4–14.0% 9.9–14.6%
13–16 September 2021 Prósent
Fréttablaðið
10.0% 9.0–11.1% 8.8–11.3% 8.6–11.6% 8.1–12.1%
8–13 September 2021 Maskína
Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir
11.5% 10.8–12.3% 10.6–12.5% 10.4–12.7% 10.1–13.0%
30 August–12 September 2021 Gallup 11.8% 11.1–12.6% 10.9–12.8% 10.7–13.0% 10.3–13.4%
8–10 September 2021 MMR 10.5% 9.3–12.0% 9.0–12.4% 8.7–12.7% 8.2–13.4%
31 August–6 September 2021 Maskína
Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir
12.5% 11.6–13.5% 11.4–13.7% 11.1–14.0% 10.7–14.5%
29 August 2021 Gallup 12.3% 11.5–13.2% 11.2–13.5% 11.0–13.7% 10.6–14.2%
24 August 2021 MMR 10.9% 9.6–12.3% 9.3–12.7% 9.0–13.1% 8.5–13.8%
13–23 August 2021 Maskína
Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir
14.2% 12.8–15.9% 12.3–16.4% 12.0–16.8% 11.3–17.6%
29 July–15 August 2021 Gallup 14.1% 13.6–14.7% 13.4–14.8% 13.3–15.0% 13.0–15.3%
1–31 July 2021 Maskína
Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir
14.1% 12.7–15.7% 12.3–16.2% 12.0–16.6% 11.3–17.4%
30 June–28 July 2021 Gallup 13.8% 13.1–14.5% 12.9–14.7% 12.7–14.9% 12.4–15.3%
15–23 July 2021 Prósent
Fréttablaðið
11.9% 11.1–12.7% 10.9–13.0% 10.7–13.2% 10.3–13.6%
24 June–6 July 2021 MMR 11.9% 11.0–12.9% 10.8–13.1% 10.6–13.4% 10.2–13.9%
1–30 June 2021 Maskína 15.0% 13.6–16.7% 13.2–17.1% 12.8–17.5% 12.1–18.4%
1–29 June 2021 Gallup 14.7% 14.0–15.4% 13.8–15.6% 13.7–15.8% 13.4–16.2%
4–14 June 2021 MMR 12.4% 11.2–13.9% 10.8–14.3% 10.5–14.7% 9.9–15.4%
25 May–1 June 2021 MMR 11.0% 9.8–12.5% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.2% 8.7–13.9%
1–31 May 2021 Gallup 14.7% 13.7–15.8% 13.4–16.1% 13.2–16.4% 12.7–16.9%
7–12 May 2021 MMR 13.1% 11.8–14.6% 11.4–15.0% 11.1–15.4% 10.5–16.2%
1–30 April 2021 Gallup 14.3% 13.3–15.4% 13.0–15.7% 12.8–15.9% 12.3–16.5%
21–28 April 2021 MMR 12.9% 11.6–14.4% 11.2–14.8% 10.9–15.2% 10.3–15.9%
29 March–7 April 2021 MMR 10.1% 8.9–11.5% 8.6–11.9% 8.3–12.2% 7.8–12.9%
1–29 March 2021 Gallup 12.3% 11.7–12.9% 11.6–13.1% 11.4–13.2% 11.2–13.5%
5–10 March 2021 MMR 11.7% 10.4–13.1% 10.1–13.5% 9.8–13.9% 9.2–14.6%
1–28 February 2021 Gallup 13.4% 12.8–14.1% 12.6–14.2% 12.5–14.4% 12.2–14.7%
12–18 February 2021 MMR 13.5% 12.1–15.0% 11.8–15.5% 11.4–15.9% 10.8–16.6%
6–31 January 2021 Gallup 12.8% 12.2–13.4% 12.0–13.6% 11.9–13.8% 11.6–14.1%
30 December 2020–11 January 2021 MMR 10.9% 10.0–11.8% 9.8–12.1% 9.6–12.3% 9.2–12.8%
1 December 2020–3 January 2021 Gallup 11.7% 11.2–12.3% 11.0–12.4% 10.9–12.6% 10.7–12.8%
11–19 December 2020 Zenter 10.2% 9.2–11.4% 8.9–11.7% 8.7–12.0% 8.2–12.5%
26 November–3 December 2020 MMR 7.6% 6.6–8.9% 6.3–9.2% 6.1–9.5% 5.7–10.1%
2–30 November 2020 Gallup 11.8% 11.2–12.4% 11.1–12.6% 10.9–12.7% 10.7–13.0%
6–11 November 2020 MMR 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 5.9–9.3% 5.5–10.0%
30 September–1 November 2020 Gallup 11.9% 11.4–12.5% 11.3–12.7% 11.1–12.8% 10.9–13.0%
23–28 October 2020 MMR 8.3% 7.2–9.5% 6.9–9.9% 6.6–10.2% 6.2–10.8%
1–30 September 2020 Gallup 13.7% 13.1–14.4% 13.0–14.5% 12.8–14.7% 12.5–15.0%
24–28 September 2020 Maskína 10.4% 9.1–11.8% 8.8–12.2% 8.5–12.5% 8.0–13.3%
10–23 September 2020 MMR 8.5% 7.8–9.4% 7.6–9.6% 7.4–9.8% 7.0–10.2%
26 August–2 September 2020 MMR 9.6% 8.4–10.9% 8.1–11.3% 7.8–11.6% 7.3–12.3%
4–31 August 2020 Gallup 12.6% 12.0–13.2% 11.8–13.4% 11.7–13.6% 11.4–13.9%
23–28 July 2020 MMR 10.8% 9.6–12.2% 9.3–12.6% 9.0–13.0% 8.5–13.7%
2–30 June 2020 Gallup 13.6% 13.0–14.2% 12.8–14.4% 12.7–14.5% 12.4–14.8%
16–19 June 2020 MMR 10.7% 9.6–12.0% 9.3–12.4% 9.0–12.7% 8.5–13.4%
4 May–1 June 2020 Gallup 14.3% 13.7–14.9% 13.6–15.1% 13.4–15.2% 13.2–15.5%
19–25 May 2020 MMR 10.6% 9.4–11.9% 9.1–12.3% 8.8–12.6% 8.3–13.3%
30 March–3 May 2020 Gallup 13.8% 13.3–14.4% 13.1–14.6% 13.0–14.7% 12.7–15.0%
15–17 April 2020 MMR 10.4% 9.3–11.7% 8.9–12.0% 8.7–12.4% 8.2–13.0%
3–7 April 2020 MMR 12.3% 11.0–13.7% 10.7–14.1% 10.4–14.4% 9.8–15.2%
2–29 March 2020 Gallup 13.3% 12.7–13.9% 12.6–14.1% 12.5–14.2% 12.2–14.5%
18–20 March 2020 MMR 10.0% 8.9–11.2% 8.6–11.6% 8.3–11.9% 7.8–12.6%
3 February–1 March 2020 Gallup 11.7% 11.1–12.3% 10.9–12.5% 10.8–12.7% 10.5–13.0%
6–10 February 2020 MMR 10.7% 9.5–12.0% 9.2–12.4% 8.9–12.7% 8.4–13.4%
3 January–2 February 2020 Gallup 10.5% 10.0–11.2% 9.8–11.3% 9.7–11.5% 9.4–11.8%
28 January 2020 MMR 8.7% 7.6–10.0% 7.3–10.4% 7.0–10.7% 6.5–11.4%
3–13 January 2020 MMR 11.1% 10.3–12.1% 10.0–12.3% 9.8–12.6% 9.4–13.0%
2 December 2019–1 January 2020 Gallup 10.7% 10.2–11.4% 10.0–11.5% 9.9–11.7% 9.6–12.0%
13–19 December 2019 MMR 10.4% 9.2–11.7% 8.9–12.1% 8.6–12.4% 8.1–13.0%
28 October–1 December 2019 Gallup 13.6% 13.1–14.2% 12.9–14.3% 12.8–14.5% 12.5–14.8%
15–22 November 2019 MMR 10.6% 9.4–11.9% 9.1–12.2% 8.8–12.6% 8.3–13.2%
30 September–27 October 2019 Gallup 13.4% 12.9–14.1% 12.7–14.2% 12.6–14.4% 12.3–14.7%
21–25 October 2019 MMR 9.7% 8.6–11.0% 8.2–11.4% 8.0–11.7% 7.5–12.4%
10–14 October 2019 Zenter 12.6% 11.4–13.8% 11.1–14.2% 10.8–14.5% 10.3–15.2%
30 September–9 October 2019 MMR 10.3% 9.5–11.2% 9.3–11.5% 9.1–11.7% 8.7–12.1%
1–30 September 2019 Gallup 12.0% 11.1–13.1% 10.9–13.4% 10.7–13.6% 10.2–14.1%
9–16 September 2019 MMR 12.8% 11.6–14.2% 11.2–14.6% 10.9–15.0% 10.4–15.7%
29 July–1 September 2019 Gallup 12.8% 12.1–13.5% 12.0–13.7% 11.8–13.9% 11.5–14.2%
12–19 August 2019 MMR 11.5% 10.3–12.9% 10.0–13.3% 9.7–13.7% 9.1–14.4%
1–31 July 2019 Gallup 12.0% 11.1–13.1% 10.9–13.4% 10.7–13.6% 10.2–14.1%
24–26 July 2019 Zenter 12.9% 11.6–14.4% 11.2–14.9% 10.9–15.2% 10.2–16.0%
4–17 July 2019 MMR 10.3% 9.5–11.2% 9.2–11.5% 9.0–11.7% 8.7–12.1%
31 May–30 June 2019 Gallup 13.0% 12.3–13.8% 12.0–14.0% 11.9–14.2% 11.5–14.6%
7–14 June 2019 MMR 11.3% 10.1–12.7% 9.8–13.1% 9.5–13.5% 9.0–14.2%
3–30 May 2019 Gallup 12.4% 11.7–13.2% 11.5–13.4% 11.3–13.6% 11.0–13.9%
23–29 May 2019 MMR 14.1% 12.7–15.6% 12.3–16.0% 12.0–16.4% 11.3–17.2%
14–16 May 2019 MMR 12.2% 10.9–13.6% 10.6–14.0% 10.3–14.4% 9.7–15.1%
30 April–3 May 2019 MMR 13.4% 12.1–14.9% 11.7–15.3% 11.4–15.7% 10.7–16.5%
5–30 April 2019 Gallup 13.3% 12.5–14.1% 12.3–14.4% 12.1–14.6% 11.8–15.0%
13 April 2019 MMR 12.1% 10.8–13.6% 10.4–14.0% 10.1–14.4% 9.5–15.1%
4–9 April 2019 MMR 10.4% 9.2–11.8% 8.8–12.1% 8.6–12.5% 8.0–13.2%
1–31 March 2019 Gallup 11.6% 11.0–12.3% 10.8–12.5% 10.6–12.7% 10.3–13.0%
11–14 March 2019 MMR 11.4% 10.2–12.8% 9.9–13.2% 9.6–13.5% 9.1–14.2%
31 January–28 February 2019 Gallup 12.3% 11.6–13.0% 11.5–13.2% 11.3–13.4% 11.0–13.7%
11–15 February 2019 MMR 11.1% 9.9–12.6% 9.6–13.0% 9.3–13.3% 8.7–14.0%
7–31 January 2019 Gallup 11.3% 10.5–12.2% 10.3–12.5% 10.1–12.7% 9.7–13.1%
28 January 2019 MMR 12.2% 10.9–13.7% 10.5–14.1% 10.2–14.5% 9.6–15.2%
4–14 January 2019 MMR 11.3% 10.5–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 10.0–12.7% 9.6–13.2%
3 December 2018–1 January 2019 Gallup 11.6% 10.9–12.4% 10.7–12.7% 10.5–12.8% 10.2–13.2%
5–11 December 2018 MMR 12.9% 11.6–14.4% 11.3–14.8% 11.0–15.2% 10.4–15.9%
3–4 December 2018 Zenter 12.7% 11.6–14.0% 11.3–14.4% 11.0–14.7% 10.5–15.3%
30 November–3 December 2018 Maskína 14.9% 13.7–16.2% 13.3–16.6% 13.0–16.9% 12.5–17.6%
3 November–2 December 2018 Gallup 10.5% 9.8–11.2% 9.6–11.5% 9.5–11.6% 9.2–12.0%
21 November 2018 MMR 10.3% 9.1–11.7% 8.8–12.1% 8.5–12.5% 8.0–13.2%
8–12 November 2018 MMR 11.5% 10.4–12.9% 10.0–13.3% 9.8–13.6% 9.2–14.3%
2–31 October 2018 Gallup 10.6% 9.9–11.3% 9.8–11.5% 9.6–11.7% 9.3–12.0%
22 October 2018 MMR 10.8% 9.6–12.2% 9.2–12.6% 8.9–13.0% 8.4–13.7%
3–9 October 2018 MMR 11.0% 9.7–12.4% 9.4–12.8% 9.1–13.2% 8.6–13.9%
3 September–1 October 2018 Gallup 10.3% 9.6–11.1% 9.4–11.3% 9.3–11.5% 8.9–11.8%
7–12 September 2018 MMR 11.1% 9.9–12.5% 9.6–12.9% 9.3–13.3% 8.7–14.0%
2 August–2 September 2018 Gallup 11.7% 11.1–12.4% 10.9–12.6% 10.7–12.8% 10.4–13.1%
10 August 2018 MMR 8.8% 7.7–10.1% 7.4–10.5% 7.1–10.8% 6.6–11.5%
29 June–30 July 2018 Gallup 10.7% 10.1–11.4% 9.9–11.6% 9.7–11.8% 9.4–12.1%
31 May–1 July 2018 Gallup 11.5% 10.8–12.3% 10.6–12.5% 10.5–12.7% 10.1–13.0%
12–18 June 2018 MMR 12.6% 11.3–14.1% 11.0–14.6% 10.7–15.0% 10.1–15.7%
2–31 May 2018 Gallup 13.3% 12.6–14.0% 12.4–14.2% 12.3–14.4% 12.0–14.7%
16–22 May 2018 MMR 11.9% 10.7–13.4% 10.3–13.8% 10.0–14.2% 9.4–14.9%
2 May 2018 MMR 13.7% 12.4–15.3% 12.0–15.7% 11.6–16.1% 11.0–16.9%
27 March–29 April 2018 Gallup 14.1% 13.4–14.8% 13.2–15.1% 13.0–15.2% 12.7–15.6%
13–19 April 2018 MMR 14.3% 12.9–15.9% 12.5–16.3% 12.2–16.7% 11.5–17.5%
1–26 March 2018 Gallup 13.9% 13.1–14.7% 12.9–15.0% 12.7–15.2% 12.4–15.6%
19 March 2018 MMR 14.8% 13.4–16.4% 13.0–16.9% 12.7–17.3% 12.0–18.1%
1–28 February 2018 Gallup 16.6% 15.7–17.5% 15.5–17.7% 15.3–17.9% 14.9–18.4%
4–31 January 2018 Gallup 16.9% 16.1–17.8% 15.8–18.1% 15.6–18.3% 15.2–18.7%
25–30 January 2018 MMR 18.4% 16.9–20.1% 16.4–20.6% 16.1–21.0% 15.3–21.9%
9–17 January 2018 MMR 15.0% 13.9–16.2% 13.6–16.5% 13.3–16.8% 12.8–17.4%
30 November–28 December 2017 Gallup 17.3% 16.6–18.1% 16.3–18.3% 16.2–18.5% 15.8–18.9%
12–15 December 2017 MMR 16.7% 15.2–18.4% 14.8–18.8% 14.4–19.2% 13.7–20.0%
4 December 2017 Fréttablaðið/Stöð 2/Vísir 23.5% 21.7–25.5% 21.2–26.1% 20.7–26.6% 19.8–27.5%
4 December 2017 Fréttablaðið, Stöð 2 and Vísir 23.5% 21.7–25.5% 21.2–26.1% 20.7–26.6% 19.8–27.5%
8–30 November 2017 Gallup 16.1% 15.1–17.1% 14.9–17.4% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.1%
14–17 November 2017 MMR 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.3–15.0% 11.0–15.3% 10.4–16.1%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5.5–6.5% 0% 100%  
6.5–7.5% 0.2% 100%  
7.5–8.5% 3% 99.8%  
8.5–9.5% 10% 97%  
9.5–10.5% 30% 87%  
10.5–11.5% 30% 57% Median
11.5–12.5% 23% 27%  
12.5–13.5% 4% 4%  
13.5–14.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
14.5–15.5% 0% 0%  
15.5–16.5% 0% 0%  
16.5–17.5% 0% 0% Last Result

Seats

Last result: 11 seats (General Election of 28 October 2017)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 7 6–8 5–8 5–9 5–9
22–24 September 2021 Maskína
Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir
6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–8
24 September 2021 Gallup
RÚV
8 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–9
22–23 September 2021 MMR
Morgunblaðið
6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–8
15–22 September 2021 Maskína
Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir
8 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
21–22 September 2021 MMR
Morgunblaðið
7 6–8 6–8 5–9 5–10
17–21 September 2021 Prósent
Fréttablaðið
7 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
13–19 September 2021 Gallup
RÚV
6 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–7
15–17 September 2021 MMR
Morgunblaðið
8 7–9 7–10 6–10 6–10
13–16 September 2021 Prósent
Fréttablaðið
7 6–7 6–8 5–8 5–8
8–13 September 2021 Maskína
Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir
7 7–8 7–8 6–8 6–9
30 August–12 September 2021 Gallup 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–9
8–10 September 2021 MMR 6 6–8 5–8 5–9 5–9
31 August–6 September 2021 Maskína
Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir
9 8–9 8–9 8–10 7–10
29 August 2021 Gallup 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–10
24 August 2021 MMR 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–9
13–23 August 2021 Maskína
Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir
10 8–10 8–10 7–11 7–12
29 July–15 August 2021 Gallup 9 9–10 9–10 9–10 8–10
1–31 July 2021 Maskína
Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir
10 8–11 8–11 8–11 7–11
30 June–28 July 2021 Gallup 9 9–10 9–10 8–10 8–11
15–23 July 2021 Prósent
Fréttablaðið
8 7–9 7–9 6–9 6–10
24 June–6 July 2021 MMR 8 7–9 7–9 6–9 6–9
1–30 June 2021 Maskína 10 10–11 9–12 9–12 8–12
1–29 June 2021 Gallup 10 9–10 9–10 9–11 9–11
4–14 June 2021 MMR 8 7–10 7–10 6–10 6–10
25 May–1 June 2021 MMR 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
1–31 May 2021 Gallup 10 9–10 9–11 9–11 8–11
7–12 May 2021 MMR 9 8–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
1–30 April 2021 Gallup 10 9–11 9–11 8–11 8–11
21–28 April 2021 MMR 9 8–10 7–10 7–10 6–11
29 March–7 April 2021 MMR 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
1–29 March 2021 Gallup 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
5–10 March 2021 MMR 7 7–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
1–28 February 2021 Gallup 9 8–10 8–10 8–10 8–10
12–18 February 2021 MMR 9 8–10 8–11 8–11 7–12
6–31 January 2021 Gallup 9 8–9 8–10 8–10 8–10
30 December 2020–11 January 2021 MMR 8 7–8 6–8 6–9 6–9
1 December 2020–3 January 2021 Gallup 8 8 7–9 7–9 7–9
11–19 December 2020 Zenter 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–9
26 November–3 December 2020 MMR 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–6
2–30 November 2020 Gallup 8 8 8–9 7–9 7–9
6–11 November 2020 MMR 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
30 September–1 November 2020 Gallup 8 8–10 8–10 7–10 7–10
23–28 October 2020 MMR 5 5–6 4–7 4–7 4–7
1–30 September 2020 Gallup 10 9–10 9–10 9–10 9–10
24–28 September 2020 Maskína 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 5–9
10–23 September 2020 MMR 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 5–7
26 August–2 September 2020 MMR 6 6–7 5–8 5–8 5–9
4–31 August 2020 Gallup 9 8–9 8–9 8–10 8–10
23–28 July 2020 MMR 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
2–30 June 2020 Gallup 9 9–10 9–10 9–10 8–10
16–19 June 2020 MMR 7 6–8 6–9 6–10 5–10
4 May–1 June 2020 Gallup 10 10 10 10 9–11
19–25 May 2020 MMR 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
30 March–3 May 2020 Gallup 10 9–10 9–10 9–10 9–10
15–17 April 2020 MMR 7 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
3–7 April 2020 MMR 8 7–9 7–10 7–10 7–10
2–29 March 2020 Gallup 9 8–9 8–10 8–10 8–10
18–20 March 2020 MMR 7 5–7 5–8 5–8 5–8
3 February–1 March 2020 Gallup 8 7–8 7–9 7–9 7–9
6–10 February 2020 MMR 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
3 January–2 February 2020 Gallup 7 7 7 6–8 6–8
28 January 2020 MMR 6 5–7 5–7 4–7 4–8
3–13 January 2020 MMR 8 7–8 7–9 7–9 6–9
2 December 2019–1 January 2020 Gallup 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
13–19 December 2019 MMR 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
28 October–1 December 2019 Gallup 10 9–10 9–10 9–10 8–10
15–22 November 2019 MMR 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–9
30 September–27 October 2019 Gallup 9 9–10 9–10 9–10 8–10
21–25 October 2019 MMR 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–8
10–14 October 2019 Zenter 9 7–10 7–10 7–10 7–10
30 September–9 October 2019 MMR 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
1–30 September 2019 Gallup 8 7–9 7–10 7–10 6–10
9–16 September 2019 MMR 9 8–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
29 July–1 September 2019 Gallup 9 8–10 8–10 8–10 8–10
12–19 August 2019 MMR 8 7–9 7–9 6–9 6–10
1–31 July 2019 Gallup 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 7–10
24–26 July 2019 Zenter 9 8–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
4–17 July 2019 MMR 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
31 May–30 June 2019 Gallup 9 8–9 8–10 8–10 8–10
7–14 June 2019 MMR 8 7–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
3–30 May 2019 Gallup 8 8–9 8–9 8–10 7–10
23–29 May 2019 MMR 10 9–11 8–11 8–11 8–12
14–16 May 2019 MMR 8 7–9 7–9 6–10 6–10
30 April–3 May 2019 MMR 9 8–10 8–10 7–11 7–11
5–30 April 2019 Gallup 10 8–10 8–10 8–10 8–10
13 April 2019 MMR 8 7–9 7–10 6–10 6–10
4–9 April 2019 MMR 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
1–31 March 2019 Gallup 7 7–8 7–8 7–9 7–9
11–14 March 2019 MMR 8 7–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
31 January–28 February 2019 Gallup 8 8–9 8–9 8–9 7–10
11–15 February 2019 MMR 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
7–31 January 2019 Gallup 7 7–8 7–8 6–8 6–9
28 January 2019 MMR 8 7–9 7–10 6–10 6–10
4–14 January 2019 MMR 7 7–8 6–8 6–8 6–9
3 December 2018–1 January 2019 Gallup 8 7–8 7–9 7–9 6–9
5–11 December 2018 MMR 9 8–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
3–4 December 2018 Zenter 9 8–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
30 November–3 December 2018 Maskína 10 9–11 9–11 9–11 8–12
3 November–2 December 2018 Gallup 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–8
21 November 2018 MMR 6 6–7 5–8 5–8 5–9
8–12 November 2018 MMR 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 6–10
2–31 October 2018 Gallup 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–8
22 October 2018 MMR 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–9
3–9 October 2018 MMR 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
3 September–1 October 2018 Gallup 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–8
7–12 September 2018 MMR 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
2 August–2 September 2018 Gallup 7 7–8 7–8 6–8 6–9
10 August 2018 MMR 6 5–6 5–7 4–7 4–7
29 June–30 July 2018 Gallup 7 6–7 6–7 6–8 6–8
31 May–1 July 2018 Gallup 7 7–8 7–8 7–9 6–9
12–18 June 2018 MMR 8 7–10 7–10 7–10 6–10
2–31 May 2018 Gallup 9 8–9 8–10 8–10 8–10
16–22 May 2018 MMR 8 7–9 7–9 6–10 6–10
2 May 2018 MMR 9 8–10 8–10 7–10 7–11
27 March–29 April 2018 Gallup 10 9–10 9–10 9–10 9–11
13–19 April 2018 MMR 10 8–10 8–11 8–11 7–11
1–26 March 2018 Gallup 9 9–10 8–10 8–10 8–10
19 March 2018 MMR 10 9–11 9–11 8–12 8–12
1–28 February 2018 Gallup 11 10–11 10–12 10–12 10–12
4–31 January 2018 Gallup 11 10–12 10–12 10–12 10–13
25–30 January 2018 MMR 13 11–14 11–14 11–15 10–15
9–17 January 2018 MMR 10 9–11 9–11 9–11 8–11
30 November–28 December 2017 Gallup 11 11–12 11–12 10–12 10–13
12–15 December 2017 MMR 11 10–13 10–13 10–13 9–14
4 December 2017 Fréttablaðið/Stöð 2/Vísir 17 15–18 15–18 14–19 14–20
4 December 2017 Fréttablaðið, Stöð 2 and Vísir 17 15–18 15–18 14–19 14–20
8–30 November 2017 Gallup 10 10–11 10–11 10–12 9–12
14–17 November 2017 MMR 8 7–10 7–10 7–10 6–10

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.4% 100%  
5 7% 99.6%  
6 40% 93%  
7 26% 53% Median
8 24% 27%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result